EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.
- Thread starter 711
- Start date
- Status
In fairness those are projections that are part of a 200 page report with all the workings out and sources available for testing by anyone who cares to go through it. Are the leave campaign bringing anything vaguely tangible as to economic projections for the future?
Technically GDP per household and mean household income should be around the same thing allowing for a minor reduction due to any savings a household might make. That the usually reported figure is median household income and that over the last 50 years it has increasingly differed from GDP is a result of the uneven earnings landscape with the rich end of the earnings curve heavily skewing the figures. In reality if the average (mean) household income drops by £4,300 then the brunt will be felt far harder by those on lower incomes although the bulk of that is likely to be those who lose their income completely if businesses do quit the UK for Europe as the report predicts.
Stephen Crabb has been trained to sit and roll over too, i hear.
Notable that neither Theresa Mayt nor Sajid Javid wanted to be associated with this tripe.
But if its working assumptions are flawed, any conclusions that the report has drawn are pretty much worthless.
An independent Britain needn't concern itself with EU power-plays, trade deals beyond the continent could be agreed upon with greater ease; where would the Treasury's projections be then?
At no point has the Government explained how a country forced to the periphery, will prosper in a European Union dominated by a centralising agenda. Rest assured, however, the costs of membership shall rise regardless.
Last edited:
Yeah, Leave people have the chance to pull the report apart now and state their disagreements, and to be fair they will need time to study and prepare their repsonses.
I like the way Osborne is trying to break down the argument into options though, Norway, Canada or WTO.
Norway is dead in the water to me, giving us nothing on immigration, contribution or red tape, and the fallback WTO rules seem to involve some pretty damaging tariffs.
So, the focus should be on how likely the Treasury's estimate of the Canada option is to be correct, and personally I'm ignoring the knee-jerk one-liner stuff until Leave produce a serious counter-report of their own.
I am hopeful that before the referendum governments around the world will give some indication as to how open they would be to new trade deals and how long they might expect them to take. At least we should get a bit more information than this 'could be' stuff.
@Nick 0208 Ldn
So you are basically saying that Leave are guessing on our economic future because we they hope we might be able to get a better deal with the EU and they hope we might be able to strike better trade deals with other nations. I am going to need something a bit more substantial than obstructive Italian tomato growers to convince me. I have bought Danial Hannan's book to read anyway.
So you are basically saying that Leave are guessing on our economic future because we they hope we might be able to get a better deal with the EU and they hope we might be able to strike better trade deals with other nations. I am going to need something a bit more substantial than obstructive Italian tomato growers to convince me. I have bought Danial Hannan's book to read anyway.
I would if I was still in the UK and I'm a regular Wolfie Smiff
£4,300 worse off per household over a 14 year period.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c15cd060-0550-11e6-96e5-f85cb08b0730.html#axzz46BlxGZpH
Edit : £4300 a year!!!!!!!!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c15cd060-0550-11e6-96e5-f85cb08b0730.html#axzz46BlxGZpH
Edit : £4300 a year!!!!!!!!
Last edited:
Covered by 10bn per year saving
Could I ask why?
No it's not, read the article
Mainly because the EU is a cancerous club that I hate, I live in it. There isn't any Unity or equality, it's quite distressing how much I hate it.
And should Britain decide to leave I will never have to hear Camerons voice again with any luck as he retires into oblivion. Double whammy
I hear you but that almost certainly gives us Boris. Now spare that horrible thought.
i feel the same as you do about the EU. Can't for the life of me understand why anybody wants to stay in it.
Is that if we Brexit?
There is the assumption behind the figures which is questionable. Its a big report and should carry weight in the argument in fact I might vote remain because it is my fear that this would happen.
Now lets see if the leave campaign can make an argument about the likely long term costs of staying in the EU because its clear that the EU project isn't going to stand still until 2030 and I haven't heard about any part of the report addressing those costs.
How much will Britain be expected to increase its contribution to the EU over the next couple of decades for example?
Paywall I presume? FT.com deliberately allows 3 free articles a day via google, if you type the headline into google search. I guess if you just started again with an incognito window you might get more. It's the Times paywall I can't beat.
Last edited:
So how much extra will it cost us if we Bremain?
Most of the people on this forum were fairly well-informed about the EU and its politics long before campaigning began, have the respective positions altered a great deal? Posters like yourself and @712 professed a degree of scepticism last year, although i now wonder if it was just so much talk. If the EU's conduct in recent years has failed to sway your view, i doubt whether a report of educated guesses shall prove the difference (although Osborne's is of a similar foundation IMO). You must know that our annual contribution to the EU budget will be billions higher by 2030, as will the number of taxes originating on the continent, throw in a few more bailouts and that's a tidy sum in itself.
I can understand why the Chancellor supports Remain, as he is a manipulative little grasper with his own Pullman carriage on this particular train, yet the left...they don't seem to want to fight for anything. It is quite a role reversal from the first referendum.
Last edited:
As far as contributions go Norway is forced to contribute heavily for it's current deal, even though from outside the EU, so are you saying you're against a Norway-style relationship too?
If you are then fair enough, but if you're not then you will have to drop the contribution comments, you just can't have it both ways.
Last edited:
I might be completely wrong but I think Yanis Varoufakis sums up the problem the Left is facing with the referendum.
I remain sceptical about both sides of the argument. As @712 mentions, if we leave then we are not going to simply be able to get a trade deal that completely favours us, especially if you look at what the other non EU European countries deals are like.
That said, I have read the first few chapters of Hannan's book and I think the better business that we can do outwith the EU if we leave is perhaps more crucial.
It is also amusing that Hannan warns about EU deploying their 'NGOs' on us to sway us against a Brexit and then see two pop up the day after reading it.
I am not well versed on the EU. I am trying to get as informed as I can on both sides of the arguments so I can make an informed choice. I don't want to be in the EU but want to be convinced that leaving would be worth the short term pain.
I am very curious as to know why so many lefties are adamant about staying in though?
Contrary to the tone of a lot of my posts I too want to leave the EU, mainly because of the immigration situation, but I want an honest argument first over how much it would cost so I can decide.
I've just read the FT review of the treasury report and they seem to think the methodology behind it is reasonable, the most critical bit saying it could be over-cautious!
I can't speak for the entire leftie consensus, but from a personal perspective I think it ultimately boils down to the distrust of giving the Tories carte blanche and full control to run the country as they please. There's a real fear of the implications brexit would have on staples such as the NHS, workers' rights and foreign policy without the buffer of the EU to balance what most of us would deem to be ideological legislative measures.
Now you could rightfully argue that that's how democracy should work, but I can see Brexit having more serious seismic implications within the country such as finally encouraging overwhelmingly pro-Europe Scotland to secede which would pretty much guarantee the Tories a stranglehold over the country's politics.
That's just my take on it. Incidentally I'm still undecided and no fan of the EU (was even leaning towards Brexit at one point) and I don't think either side has compelled me yet to vote one way or the other, but an isolated Tory Britain probably led by Boris does terrify me.
Yet the EU is secretly negotiating and signing us up to TTIP and has recently granted private companies the right to snoop on employees private emails and internet activities during working hours. The difference here is that beyond this referendum you will have no democratic power to do anything about it for another 25 - 30 years.
As for the Scottish issue, the SNP based their economic argument on their oil wealth. The price of oil has gone down from $120 a barrel to $30 a barrel since then. Westminster is well within its rights to not grant another referendum for at least another 20 years anyway.
Does anybody else think that UKIP are likely to do very well in the English local elections which though in theory pertain more to local issues are almost certain to be somewhat influenced by the overarching political narrative which is of course focused on the referendum.
So plenty more bongo bongo type candidates will probably get elected
So plenty more bongo bongo type candidates will probably get elected
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...s-blast-one-sided-treasury-warning-on-brexit/
Bit of a surprise but little Georgie is trying his best to deceive the British public....and they wonder why no-one trusts them.
Just a snippet.
Bit of a surprise but little Georgie is trying his best to deceive the British public....and they wonder why no-one trusts them.
Where is the upside in any of that? I know the H&S gone mad debates are entertaining but the vast majority of H&S legislation is there for good reason, do we really trust any of our politicians, not just the tories, to not shaft the working man in favour of big business making a few more dollars to hide from the taxman if they have carte blanche to remove employment law & H&S protections. As for energy it's not like any of us seem to have reduced bills despite the appearance of competition in the energy market and that's hardly likely to improve now we've sold off the rights to our new powerstations to the French and Chinese at guaranteed energy tariffs whilst I can't see where allowing our politicians to ease the legislation governing the financial services sector could possibly go wrong so long as we're there to bail them out.
IMO Governments should spend 100% of their time focusing on their own countries and the people in it, not trying to please and prop up other countries in the club. There also seems to be so much 'Worry' from British people about immigration it's farcical. I haven't noticed any immigrants in Holland, they don't invade my space, haven't taken my job, haven't robbed me. It only becomes a worry when Politicians telly you should worry about it.
I don't mind you quoting things I've said, but really....put it in quotes where it belongs.
I am for a British model, which at the very least would involve significantly reduced contributions.
I finally managed to download the Treasury report last last night, it's a real page-turner i can tell you.
I skipped ahead to the chapter on the cost of future EU membership, and the methodology employed seems rather questionable to my untrained eye.From the section entitled Projecting the direct costs of the EU budget over the long term:
The model used in the report would appear to grossly underestimate the future costs of EU membership, and not accidentally so i would venture.
Certainly, we're not going to get all of our demands when negotiating with the EU, that's just how these things go. But if the EU is prepared to have a more relaxed economic relationship with Turkey, i don't see that Britain will be significantly different. And if one considers the potential for bespoke deals with Canada, India, Australia, parts of Africa, and the Caribbean, there is plenty of scope by which to compensate.
What is this about NGOs may i ask?
Last edited:
Many reasons for me (I'd echo Kaos' thoughts) but the one I'm inclined to make, as I don't see it made very often, is that increasingly I feel European more than anything else, so find the emotional argument that as Europeans we should tackle issues together to be persuasive.
M might allow you the workers right part,m at least to some to degree, but the NHS and foreign policy? The EU an increasing danger in both of those areas.
Nor do you need to be part of a failing European Union to feel a commonality with other Europeans; and where was this solidarity you speak of in recent years, it rather flew out of the window at the first opportunity. We can also cooperate on important things though (human rights, science, climate change e.t.c.), only not via this political manifestation.
Nor do you need to be part of a failing European Union to feel a commonality with other Europeans; and where was this solidarity you speak of in recent years, it rather flew out of the window at the first opportunity. We can also cooperate on important things though (human rights, science, climate change e.t.c.), only not via this political manifestation.
I think we'd all like to just choose our favourite parts of the relationship with Europe whilst getting rid of our least favourite ones. I don't really trust our government (or its electorate) to keep the bits I want, if we leave. Particularly when a leave vote would be seen as a mandate to get rid of them.
This is the key point. I don't see any route to a better country (in my eyes at least) with us leaving the EU.
I am for a British model, which would at the very least involve reduced contributions.
I finally managed to download the Treasury report last last night, it's a real page-turner i can tell you.
From the section entitled Projecting the direct costs of the EU budget over the long term:
The model used in the report would appear to grossly underestimate the future costs of EU membership, and not accidentally so i would venture.
Certainly, we're not going to get all of our demands when negotiating with the EU, that's just how these things go. But if the EU is prepared to have a more relaxed economic relationship with Turkey, i don't see that Britain will be significantly different. And if one considers the potential for bespoke deals with Canada, India, Australia, parts of Africa, and the Caribbean, there is plenty of scope by which to compensate.
What is this about NGOs may i ask?
Thanks, I'll take that as admittance we wouldn't get reduced EU immigration under an affordable deal.
Don't try sneaking it in again later.
I'm a lefty, why do I want to stay in the EU? Workers rights and consumer protection, a common set of laws for trade across 26 nations. The anti EU mob would water down the former very quickly. The trade agreement, we will get something but no way do I imagine it will be a good deal. They are so much richer then us, they will dictate terms as we'll be desperate for their money
Thanks, I'll take that as admittance we wouldn't get reduced EU immigration under an affordable deal.
Don't try sneaking it in again later.
I don't really understand this point, why is free movement of people a demand made in order to negotiate a mutually beneficial trade deal and does the EU demand this from every part of the world it agrees trade deals with?
I can't see anyway the UK govt would be able to agree to free movement post a leave vote because it would not have a mandate to do so.
- Status