Yeah the Liverpool game at half was even, they had like 0.8 to our 0.6 or something. Arsenal i don't think was particularly close
xG and finishing under ETH
- Thread starter Samid
- Start date
Yes of course Liverpool played better than us and were deserved winners. However, the xG does show what a freak result it was. From the chances they had they weren’t expected to score more than 3 goals. Literally everything they tried yesterday came off. Every shot went in. Every chance was converted. It was a freak day.
What’s a bigger concern for me is the big chances opponents are creating against us. I’d guess West Ham might have even had a higher (or similar) xG to Liverpool yet we came away 2-1 winners and it doesn’t get thought about.
We’ve had some great results this season and looked miles better defensively but we do still have work to do on becoming more solid at the back.
Antony has never scored more than 9 league goals in a season.
Sancho isn't up to it.
Martial is a sicknote.
Garnacho is a kid who is doing well so far but you can't expect 15+ league goals from him yet.
Rashford is scoring.
Weghorst has 2 goals in 27 PL games and will be gone in the summer.
Bruno goals from open play have dried up since the end of 2020/21.
This is the reality. We are going to continue to struggle and without major changes to the attack we aren't getting anywhere close to the PL title.
Sancho isn't up to it.
Martial is a sicknote.
Garnacho is a kid who is doing well so far but you can't expect 15+ league goals from him yet.
Rashford is scoring.
Weghorst has 2 goals in 27 PL games and will be gone in the summer.
Bruno goals from open play have dried up since the end of 2020/21.
This is the reality. We are going to continue to struggle and without major changes to the attack we aren't getting anywhere close to the PL title.
We'll get close (we got close to the challenge this season already)
Agree though we need to invest heavily in goal scoring in the summer, and I'm sure we will
Also shows a lack of quality up top, excluding Rashford IMO. When you have about 1 singular threat, you're already on the back foot against opposition because it's easier for them to nullify. Put a quality striker up top (I'm sorry to stick the boot in, but WW barely seems Championship standard and yet he's starting for us) and automatically the opposition has to drop a meter or 2 deeper, or worry about a different threat than just Rashford. Add in that our right winger(s) add even less threat, it's no surprise the stats are skewed against us. Sad part is we've spent a small fortune on both Sancho and Antony, and both have added very little to our attack.
Working backwards from today. Source Understat.
I don't know how to upload a graph but the trend is we were generally increasing our xG and bettering our xGA, we lost to Arsenal away & Eriksen got injured versus Reading and it's been a real awful slog since. We should have lost both Leeds games although the Arsenal loss was still the worst performance (which I'd agree with having watched Ars and Pool losses) despite being the 'better' result. Eriksen's importance to us can't be overstated, it's a position we're desperate for more quality and we need to address in summer along with CF.
| Fixture | xG | xGA |
| Liverpool 7-0 United | 0.84 | 3.44 |
| United 3-0 Leicester | 4.25 | 1.4 |
| Leeds 0-2 United | 1.3 | 1.89 |
| United 2-2 Leeds | 2 | 0.55 |
| United 2-1 Palace | 2.07 | 1.38 |
| Arsenal 3-2 United | 0.27 | 2.9 |
| Palace 1-1 United | 1.39 | 0.41 |
| United 2-1 City | 1.98 | 0.74 |
| United 3-0 B'mouth | 2.97 | 0.68 |
| Wolves 0-1 United | 2.45 | 0.59 |
| United 3-0 Forest | 2.14 | 0.48 |
| Fulham 1-2 United | 3.38 | 1.7 |
| Villa 3-1 United | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| United 1-0 WHUM | 1.75 | 1 |
| Chelsea 1-1 United | 0.73 | 1.2 |
| United 2-0 Spurs | 1.71 | 0.66 |
| United 0-0 Newcastle | 1.42 | 0.79 |
| Everton 1-2 United | 1.83 | 0.37 |
| City 6-3 United | 1.71 | 3.01 |
| United 3-1 Arsenal | 2.03 | 1.42 |
| Leicester 0-1 United | 1.1 | 0.62 |
| Southampton 0-1 United | 1.34 | 1.36 |
| United 2-1 Pool | 2.02 | 1.52 |
| Brentford 4-0 United | 0.9 | 1.39 |
| United 1-2 Brighton | 1.42 | 1.73 |
I don't know how to upload a graph but the trend is we were generally increasing our xG and bettering our xGA, we lost to Arsenal away & Eriksen got injured versus Reading and it's been a real awful slog since. We should have lost both Leeds games although the Arsenal loss was still the worst performance (which I'd agree with having watched Ars and Pool losses) despite being the 'better' result. Eriksen's importance to us can't be overstated, it's a position we're desperate for more quality and we need to address in summer along with CF.
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Didn't Klopp's first season, the results were kind of similar towards the end of the season? Maybe I misremembering things, but the first two seasons at least, his team couldn't sustain the gegenpressing tactics the whole season.
Even if that's the case, losing 0-7 should/must be a very bitter but useful learning experience.
Even if that's the case, losing 0-7 should/must be a very bitter but useful learning experience.
Looking back the Leicester game pisses me off even more. We should've scored 7 then, but we spent the last 30 trying to walk one in for the donkey. It stunk of such a shitty attitude and arrogance.
They were like the opposite to us, they lost to awful teams and did ok in bigger games. Even the season after (his first full season) Swansea did the double over them, they lost to Hull, lost to Burnley, lots of bad draws.
We’ve been pretty consistent against the ‘weaker teams’ but away from home against the top names we’ve struggled. Hints that we are trying to be more expansive and progressive but this is the price we’ve paid (conceded 3 at the Emirates, 6 at Etihad, 7 at Anfield).
Nah. West Ham was nowhere close. That game we had 1.5xg to their 0.92. Liverpool battered us and deserved to batter us, but yes the 7-0 was also a fluke. As shown by Arsenal and City games not having a much different xG and being much different results (well kinda for the city game...). Arsenal battered us performance wise and chance wise more than Liverpool and we created less vs them, yet we lost to a last minute winner 3-2. Both were flukes, but all 3 deserved losses.
You fecked up some of these. Leeds at Old Trafford you mixed up xG and xGa. Same with Brentford. So yeah. Hasn't really been a thing that since Eriksen has been out we've struggled. We've done well and only had 1 bad game vs Leeds away in reality (before yesterday), but that game was an away game before playing Barcelona, so naturally our focus was shifted.
It's been a trend that we bounce back well after defeats and go on a good run. But we can't sustain those runs for super long (10 games in all competitions is still good mind you), before we crash down with a really shit game. But I'll take another great 10 game run before another shit loss again tbh. Get it a bit longer every time, and then learn to not get battered once you do have to lose.
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Liverpool just had a complete outlier of a result. Like the xG suggests, if the game was repeated 100 times with the same chances, the average score would be 3-1 (ish). They clearly got the freakiest score possible. A well deserved freak result though.
Expected goal difference over the season:
Arsenal: +24.9
City: +32.7
United: +8.4
Tells its own story really. Still a big gap to bridge.
Arsenal: +24.9
City: +32.7
United: +8.4
Tells its own story really. Still a big gap to bridge.
Thanks for catching, manually entered them. Hopefully now it's fixed.
Our attacking game is still too 1-dimensional. ETH added some options, but compared to City, Liverpool, Arsenal, we can not compete.
Take a look at our heatmaps, we do not use our wings. Teams close down the center, and we have problems to score. But there is so much unused space on the wings, which we do not attack most of the time. Our opponents can overload the 16-yard box, and we do not punish them, because our attack is like a funnel. But why? First, all our wingers drift inside, do not cross and can not beat someone 1vs 1. 2nd, our fullbacks do not overlap. 3rd not enough players in the box, so why overlap, cross, or pass from the wing? Sometimes, not regularly enough, we start to play football, we use all the pitch and this is the time of the match, when we are dangerous and dominant. We force a defense out of position, we stretch and compress it, move the ball fast and attack the space, every space.
Take a look at our heatmaps, we do not use our wings. Teams close down the center, and we have problems to score. But there is so much unused space on the wings, which we do not attack most of the time. Our opponents can overload the 16-yard box, and we do not punish them, because our attack is like a funnel. But why? First, all our wingers drift inside, do not cross and can not beat someone 1vs 1. 2nd, our fullbacks do not overlap. 3rd not enough players in the box, so why overlap, cross, or pass from the wing? Sometimes, not regularly enough, we start to play football, we use all the pitch and this is the time of the match, when we are dangerous and dominant. We force a defense out of position, we stretch and compress it, move the ball fast and attack the space, every space.
You fancy us yo beat anyone at home playing how we do currently. Absolutely comprehensive again. Just need to do this away now.
We're trending upwards which is great to see.
13 shots on target, so we score about 11 if we develop Liverpool's finishing/luck at some point. 
As much as I hate to disagree, Antony was not taking these chances seriously.13 shots on target, so we score about 11 if we develop Liverpool's finishing/luck at some point.
We missed 2 or 3 sitters.
Worse than Liverpool. The scoreboard is being very generous to that performance. That might be an all-time bad in the xG era:
Any other half decent attack puts 6-7 past us today.
That's pretty damning overall. Despite the promising cup runs, we're still light years away from the top dogs in the league. We'll need at least two more summer windows - and both have to be better than any other since Fergie's retirement - if we want to challenge any time soon.
Can't say I'm surprised at this graph. We haven't had many comfortable/dominant wins in the PL. It seems as though that Spurs game at OT an outlier in terms of performance this season.
Yep. Talk of a real title challenge next season (let alone this season) was very much fanciful. Hopefully a silver lining to being dragged back into the top four race is that expectations are more realistic by season's end.
We could make massive strides forward as a team next season and still "just" finish inside the top four.
Scored 4 and still hugely underperformed xG, and had loads of chances that didn't end in shots even like Martials.
This time last season no one thought Arsenal would challenge City, look how that worked out.
we dont need 2 seasons, we meed the right signings and some players to improve (Garnacho, Antony etc)
Wow, can't remember seeing it that high for us.
Our xG tonight was slightly higher than during the 9-0 win against Southampton when they played almost the entire game with ten men. Quite incredible, really. We created a crazy amount in the second half.
Even in the first. Could've been close to 6 if Martial shot on that chance for example.
Penalty aside we missed the target all game.
Ten Hag’s clearly got us on the right track in terms of playing style as we’re creating a ton of chances, now the club has to back him in the summer and bring in top strikers who can convert them.
Our xG was higher today, the feck? 
I guess the penalty makes up a lot for that. City's goals were wonders.
I guess the penalty makes up a lot for that. City's goals were wonders.
Classic theme that's plagued us all season. We give away nothing goals and we don't finish our chances. Sometimes it's as easy as just change the GK and change the CF and you see a massive improvement.
They didn't create much. We had plenty (was about even without the pen). De Gea letting simple shots go in and us consistently underperforming xG again is the story of our season.Our xG was higher today, the feck?
I guess the penalty makes up a lot for that. City's goals were wonders.
Was just looking at end of season data, posted these elsewhere but will add here. Post World Cup, which imo is a pretty relevant sample for a new manager (2nd half of season more telling than the 1st, as well as being more pressure on the team):
- 2nd most points in the league, despite playing 17 cup games during this time, compared to 14 (soon to be 15) for City, 6 for Liverpool/Brighton/Newcastle, and 4 for Arsenal
- Just 1.37 xPts separating Newcastle in 2nd and United in 5th (Arsenal another 2.53 points below us), which is effectively the same thing and shows that the other 5 were a roughly similar level... Despite games played disparity
- Just 3.5 xG fewer than City, and more xG than Arsenal .. despite playing Weghorst for much of this.
Nice. This summer transfer window is really important. If we get it right I’d be fairly confident of challenging city.
Still think we are a bit away from that. We can get to 80's with the right signings but actually challenging City requires being a team that can get to mid 90s like Liverpool did to challenge them... Don't see that. Arsenal only got to mid 80's so City eased off at the end, but they were on pace for 94 if they had someone pushing. I think it's more realistic to challenge for the CL than to hit that consistency already. Too much uncertainty with the ownership situation, unknown transfer window budgets and too much to address. Well positioned for 24/25 challenge though, if we hit a high enough level