Idxomer
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- Aug 3, 2014
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We're never gonna create enough high-quality chances with the type of strikers we have. Our playmakers don't help either with their lack of ball-carrying abilities.
I have the same observation, I think we need to free up Eriksen and let him play his regular, more advanced role. Hopefully we have a FDJ alternative (or 2) lined up to get in the next couple of windows.I would consider changing setup to give Eriksen more freedom, as he looks like the most creative player in the squad but now is being asked to do quite a lot defensively. I'm questioning this Bruno-centric setup in a games like West Ham.
But to be fair, we played awful high number of games recently and it showed, so maybe I'm reading too much into it and it's just fatigue.
Player | npxg/90 | xa/90 | TOTAL |
Martial | 0,42 | 0,33 | 0,75 |
Rashford | 0,35 | 0,1 | 0,45 |
Ronaldo | 0,33 | 0,08 | 0,41 |
Antony | 0,31 | 0,09 | 0,4 |
Elanga | 0,13 | 0,25 | 0,38 |
Fernandes | 0,16 | 0,21 | 0,37 |
Eriksen | 0,15 | 0,16 | 0,31 |
Sancho | 0,2 | 0,11 | 0,31 |
Fred | 0,18 | 0,11 | 0,29 |
Casemiro | 0,08 | 0,15 | 0,23 |
Shaw | 0,03 | 0,1 | 0,13 |
Dalot | 0,05 | 0,08 | 0,13 |
McTominay | 0,06 | 0,07 | 0,13 |
PL, following the West Ham game:
Player npxg/90 xa/90 TOTAL Martial 0,42 0,33 0,75Rashford 0,35 0,1 0,45Ronaldo 0,33 0,08 0,41Antony 0,31 0,09 0,4Elanga 0,13 0,25 0,38Fernandes 0,16 0,21 0,37Eriksen 0,15 0,16 0,31Sancho 0,2 0,11 0,31Fred 0,18 0,11 0,29Casemiro 0,08 0,15 0,23Shaw 0,03 0,1 0,13Dalot 0,05 0,08 0,13McTominay 0,06 0,07 0,13
To put some perspective on that; if you disregard Martial (too small sample), the npxg level of our strikers is in the area of 0,35/90, at best. Disregarding players with fewer than 3 90s, the best in the PL is of course Haaland, who's got a 0.82 npxg. There's a further 14 players in the PL with an npxg higher than 0.35/90. The much-maligned Nunez f.e. has twice anyone on United (0.75 npxg). Bamford, Wilson, Awoniyi, Jesus, Kane, Rodrigo, Salah, Firmino, Mitrovic, Foden, Richarlison, Almiron, Toney and Willian all have npxg exceeding United's strikers. That's 8 teams with at least one player above our strikers npxg, which would seem to indicate we're a pretty average side when it comes to generating scoring opportunities.
We have too many passers and not enough runners. Eriksen, Bruno, Sancho, Antony need some outlets. Wide forwards should be more brave IMO. Also, Antony is usually operating very wide so we need a player making inside underlapping runs. Ronaldo IMO should not be dropping deep.This is a good observation. I'd say we're looking good now in the first 2/3 of the pitch.
How do we translate that into potency in the final 3rd? Usually the simplest answer for that is to just have better players there to do that. My concerns around the Antony signing still remain - he needs to increase his output to be a long term starter for a club like ours in a front 3 position, or we'll always look impotent. It's the same with Sancho on the other side.
This is a good observation. I'd say we're looking good now in the first 2/3 of the pitch.
How do we translate that into potency in the final 3rd? Usually the simplest answer for that is to just have better players there to do that. My concerns around the Antony signing still remain - he needs to increase his output to be a long term starter for a club like ours in a front 3 position, or we'll always look impotent. It's the same with Sancho on the other side.
negative GD again.
True but it's not like United's creating many quality chances eitherIncompetent foward players.
Good strikers create spaces, make intelligent runs and thus contribute in creating scoring opportunities.True but it's not like United's creating many quality chances either
Those Garnacho, and specially Martial chances really build up that xG.
We need to improve there, score early and the game is way easier.
Antony missing from 2 yards because he decided to try and head his own feet probably helped too.
It was actually a relatively comfortable performance we almost managed to completely feck up with our own horrible finishing.
He was offside for that but Tony M should have put the ball in the net before that.Antony missing from 2 yards because he decided to try and head his own feet probably helped too.
It was actually a relatively comfortable performance we almost managed to completely feck up with our own horrible finishing.
But is it not the case that the best strikers and best teams tend to outperform their xG?Going into today we had scored 23 goals from 21.3 xG. So it remains the case that our aggregate finishing had been fine.
The issue is reflected in the xG itself, where we were 9th in the league going into today.
Hopefully we'll create more as we get to actually use our first-choice attack which we've rarely been able to this season.
But is it not the case that the best strikers and best teams tend to outperform their xG?
I agree. A tough away game against Wolves certainly isn't a match where I expect some fireworks but chance creation is still an issue. So weird looking at us being really slick in our builtup play but as soon as we enter the last third, it all goes away. Great results, a good defense - we have been there not too long ago. I hope, this is the next topic ETH engages in. Lack of personnel definitely an issue but not the single main reason, when looking at other teams in the league.Going into today we had scored 23 goals from 21.3 xG. So it remains the case that our aggregate finishing had been fine.
The issue is reflected in the xG itself, where we were 9th in the league going into today.
Hopefully we'll create more as we get to actually use our first-choice attack which we've rarely been able to this season.
That Antony finish was awful but it was offside, as my understanding that miss doesn't contributes to xG.Antony missing from 2 yards because he decided to try and head his own feet probably helped too.
It was actually a relatively comfortable performance we almost managed to completely feck up with our own horrible finishing.
That Antony finish was awful but it was offside, as my understanding that miss doesn't contributes to xG.
Yes that one must be at least 0.60-0.70 xG.Surely Martial missing the header should?
Yes that one must be at least 0.60-0.70 xG.
What we need to sort this is a real striker. We don't have a true goalscorer
Not sure that Antony miss counts as he was offside. Thanks to an even more pathetic attempt at a header from Martial.
That Antony finish was awful but it was offside, as my understanding that miss doesn't contributes to xG.
Players and teams tend to go through periods where they outperform their xG, but over time it averages out. I believe Messi is pretty much the only player around who consistently outperforms his xG. Even the likes of Ronaldo, Lewandowski, Kane, etc, don't. It's their ability to create so many chances for themselves through their movement and positioning that allows them to rack up their huge goal scoring feats.But is it not the case that the best strikers and best teams tend to outperform their xG?
Well, except Rashford.
But is it not the case that the best strikers and best teams tend to outperform their xG?
I don't understand how xG is calculated. I would think a free header in the small box should be scored more often than not.0.49
I don't understand how xG is calculated. I would think a free header in the small box should be scored more often than not.
I see.To a limited extent.
For example in recent years City have outperformed their xG by roughly +3, +15, +10, +11 and so on over the course of a season. But then within that same time period we've had +13, +4, +4 and +13 seasons. As have other teams.
The key difference being that City actually had the best xG in the league in each of those seasons.
In other words finishing ability is less important than chance-getting ability, for teams and for players, because the latter is the more repeatable skill. That's why a lot of the best goalscorers finish relatively close to par with their xG over multiple seasons.
To a limited extent.
For example in recent years City have outperformed their xG by roughly +3, +15, +10, +11 and so on over the course of a season. But then within that same time period we've had +13, +4, +4 and +13 seasons. As have other teams.
The key difference being that City actually had the best xG in the league in each of those seasons.
In other words finishing ability is less important than chance-getting ability, for teams and for players, because the latter is the more repeatable skill. That's why a lot of the best goalscorers finish relatively close to par with their xG over multiple seasons.
Going into today we had scored 23 goals from 21.3 xG. So it remains the case that our aggregate finishing had been fine.
The issue is reflected in the xG itself, where we were 9th in the league going into today.
Hopefully we'll create more as we get to actually use our first-choice attack which we've rarely been able to this season.
So far so good in this regard. I would be amazed if getting rid of Ronaldo doesn’t see an immediate and persistent improvement in our xG. Trying to create for multiple players who are all constantly moving is so much easier than when everything is funnelled towards just one, constantly offside, goalhanger. Not to mention the increased chances we’ll get from an effective press meaning we win the ball back much higher up the pitch. All of which we’re seeing now. Finally.