xG And Analytics Under Amorim

[Adz_99]

It feels like we have to create 10 chances to score 1 goal but if the opposition even glances in the direction of our goal they'll score.

Awful combination of concentration lapses at the back and lack of ability up front.

 

[Who's Kissing Cameras?]

watching the game, we were absolutely dominated by the better team bar one good spell in the first half. and fair enough once the game we lost we racked up a couple of goals in xg, with bruno in midfield, our best striker on and bournemouth backing off.

one of those games where the xg looks like an absolutely nonsense stat because of the game state and when you actually watch the game

They had one good chance in open play. We weren’t dominated at all.

 

[red.knight]

Amorim’s United have limited their opponents to less than 1.0xG in six of his nine matches so far

 

[Chumpsbechumps]

 

[always_hoping]

Really wasn't. Last season XG was 1.11-1.97 with no penalty.

We were woeful in the Bournemouth game last season, don't think we were as bad today.

United were every bit as bad in both boxes where it matters most in a football game.

More possesion last season v Bournemouth 69% and passing accuracy 85%

Bournemouth then and today 10 shots on goal. Managed to scored 3 from five on target today compared to 3 from 4 shots.

 

[Danny]

Amorim’s United have limited their opponents to less than 1.0xG in six of his nine matches so far

Yet, conceded a ridiculous amount still.

 

[red.knight]

Yet, conceded a ridiculous amount still.

I must admit today result was quite a shocker. But its clear by now that theres no quick fix to United problems and the season will be full of ups and downs. Amorim is still learning about his players and the players are adapting to his system. Its going to be a rollercoaster of a season.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

United were every bit as bad in both boxes where it matters most in a football game.

More possesion last season v Bournemouth 69% and passing accuracy 85%

Bournemouth then and today 10 shots on goal. Managed to scored 3 from five on target today compared to 3 from 4 shots.

How many shots on goal did we have last season?

 

[bosnian_red]

How many shots on goal did we have last season?

Not sure but we barely had 1 xG last season and they had more xG than we did, while today we had ~2.3 and they had ~0.5 plus the pen. Today we just weren't hitting the target with our shots

 

[always_hoping]

How many shots on goal did we have last season?

20

 

[Bastian]

We were wasting chances since the start of the season, so it's not a new trend under Amorim. But so far, in the league:

Bruno xG: 6.75 (4 goals)
Garnacho xG: 5.32 (3 goals)
Amad xG: 2.16 (2 goals)
Rashford xG: 1.94 (4 goals)
Zirkzee xG: 3.61 (3 goals)

 

[Laurencio]

Give the man a fecking striker and a proper goalkeeper. Spend 200M on just that.

 

[ArmchairCritic]

We were wasting chances since the start of the season, so it's not a new trend under Amorim. But so far, in the league:

Bruno xG: 6.75 (4 goals)
Garnacho xG: 5.32 (3 goals)
Amad xG: 2.16 (2 goals)
Rashford xG: 1.94 (4 goals)
Zirkzee xG: 3.61 (3 goals)

Bruno’s finishing has declined so much since Ole got sacked. Can’t imagine him now scoring a hat trick like he did vs Leeds.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

We were wasting chances since the start of the season, so it's not a new trend under Amorim. But so far, in the league:

Bruno xG: 6.75 (4 goals)
Garnacho xG: 5.32 (3 goals)
Amad xG: 2.16 (2 goals)
Rashford xG: 1.94 (4 goals)
Zirkzee xG: 3.61 (3 goals)

How does Hojlund look? I’m guessing extremely low xG but might be out-performing it?

 

[Flying high]

Give the man a fecking striker and a proper goalkeeper. Spend 200M on just that.

Sure, if we have 300m to spend on our actual priorities first.

 

[Chipper]

Are relative stats something worth looking into? Looking at how a team performs in a match in a particular metric compared to how other teams performed against the same opponent?

Example: We play Wolves away next, according to FBRef they have given up 14.7 xG against 8 opponents at Molineux so far, an average of 1.84 per game. If we register more than that it's promising, around that average, less than that not so good.

You could do the same for the xG they typically create (our defence), and a whole host of stats.

My thinking is that it can possibly provide further context. Having 60% possession is good in general. Having 60% away to Arsenal would be a lot more impressive than 60% possession at home to Southampton. We know that already, but exactly how much more impressive?

One off games wouldn't necessarily show anything, but if you were trending better than average in a particular stat in relative terms across a number of games it might be sort of interesting. The higher above average the better.

Seen this sort of thing only once before, applied to results/points, with the aim of uncovering who had the harder or easier fixtures. You can just look of course, but that tries to be more precise.

Might have a go at applying the same sort of thing to a few different performance indicators unless it's a really shit idea? Seeing one flaw already even in my Wolves example. They're under new management so we can't say for sure what is good or bad against them in the immeduate aftermath of the game as things might change drastically, Still, if they improve then what would be considered relatively good or poor against them would also change with each extra game they play and the figures would get updated to reflect that when looking back. Eventually everything converges once the season is over.

Edit: I suppose that sort of thing would be at the core of some basic prediction models. It's alright registering over 2 xG 5 games in a row, but if all 5 games were against teams who are weak defensively and your next opponent is the best in the league at preventing it, it would be a bit optimistic to assume you'll get as much again. Doesn't mean you can't, just less likely. An acceptable number against them as viewed after the fact and the prediction before it would be pretty much one and the same. Your relative performance versus others ahead of the match versus theirs, combine it altogether.

 

[Bastian]

How does Hojlund look? I’m guessing extremely low xG but might be out-performing it?

Aye, I thought I forgot someone

Hojlund xg 1.66 (2 goals). You're right, he's outperforming his xG, but for a striker he's averaging 1.11 shots per game which tells its own story. Prior to Amorim coming in we weren't creating enough for him and the wide players weren't giving him the ball but rather going for goal themselves every time. We've improved a bit since.

 

[Chipper]

This is the kind of thing I was waffling on about a couple of posts up.

Not sure I can be arsed myself now. It's Christmas, should be having fun and I've managed to bore myself to death now.

Bollocks to titles and labelling up the axis.

It's our xG created in these fixtures relative to what other teams have done against them in their corresponding fixtures.

Villa away was rubbish, right? We created nothing. Not far from what everyone else has done at Villa Park so far this season. Villa don't cough up chances there.

Beat Leicester 3-0 at Old Trafford. Teams usually create much more xG against them when they get to play them at home.

The last 3 games all trending up. We accumulated more xG v Forest and Bournemouth at home than clubs typically have so far when they play them at home, and more at the Etihad than teams usually do there so far as well. Guess that's good in it's own little way!

Might have made it non-penalty xG and knocked it down by 0.79 v City and Chelsea but that's a step too far, would have to knock off all penalties conceded by all teams whether they were playing us or not as part of the data collecting.

Could in theory whack that out for all kinds of stats. Different colours for the 3 different managers we've had, no other reason. Erik the Red, Ruud in his Dutch Orange, Ruben paying tribute to Sporting.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

This is the kind of thing I was waffling on about a couple of posts up.

Not sure I can be arsed myself now. It's Christmas, should be having fun and I've managed to bore myself to death now.

Bollocks to titles and labelling up the axis.

It's our xG created in these fixtures relative to what other teams have done against them in their corresponding fixtures.

Villa away was rubbish, right? We created nothing. Not far from what everyone else has done at Villa Park so far this season. Villa don't cough up chances there.

Beat Leicester 3-0 at Old Trafford. Teams usually create much more xG against them when they get to play them at home.

The last 3 games all trending up. We accumulated more xG v Forest and Bournemouth at home than clubs typically have so far when they play them at home, and more at the Etihad than teams usually do there so far as well. Guess that's good in it's own little way!

Might have made it non-penalty xG and knocked it down by 0.79 v City and Chelsea but that's a step too far, would have to knock off all penalties conceded by all teams whether they were playing us or not as part of the data collecting.

Could in theory whack that out for all kinds of stats. Different colours for the 3 different managers we've had, no other reason. Erik the Red, Ruud in his Dutch Orange, Ruben paying tribute to Sporting.

That’s a great bit of work you’ve done there. Encouraging too. Now you can go enjoy your Christmas knowing you’ve cheered me up. Thanks!

EDIT: And that’s all just xG for, right? And we already know our xG against under Amorin has improved significantly since he took over.

 

[Cutch]

No. All our metrics were higher at every point in the game. In the last 5 minutes of the first half alone, we created more chances than they did all game.

We don’t have to make up alternative facts. We are wasteful infront of goal, can’t defend set pieces, and are very prone to defensive brain farts.

Let’s not add imagined made up problems like chance creation, possession, or “being dominated” which would only confuse the point.

This United team/squad in a nutshell. Its incredibly frustrating. Bournemouth did exactly the same last season, scored from virtually every shot they had on target while we wasted everything

 

[ArmchairCritic]

This is the kind of thing I was waffling on about a couple of posts up.

Not sure I can be arsed myself now. It's Christmas, should be having fun and I've managed to bore myself to death now.

Bollocks to titles and labelling up the axis.

It's our xG created in these fixtures relative to what other teams have done against them in their corresponding fixtures.

Villa away was rubbish, right? We created nothing. Not far from what everyone else has done at Villa Park so far this season. Villa don't cough up chances there.

Beat Leicester 3-0 at Old Trafford. Teams usually create much more xG against them when they get to play them at home.

The last 3 games all trending up. We accumulated more xG v Forest and Bournemouth at home than clubs typically have so far when they play them at home, and more at the Etihad than teams usually do there so far as well. Guess that's good in it's own little way!

Might have made it non-penalty xG and knocked it down by 0.79 v City and Chelsea but that's a step too far, would have to knock off all penalties conceded by all teams whether they were playing us or not as part of the data collecting.

Could in theory whack that out for all kinds of stats. Different colours for the 3 different managers we've had, no other reason. Erik the Red, Ruud in his Dutch Orange, Ruben paying tribute to Sporting.

Between Palace Away, West Ham Away, Forest Home and Bournemouth Home we have come away with a solitary point. Amazing.

 

[Walters_19_MuFc]

Goals change games—it’s as simple as that. When I watch Liverpool, there are times when they spend long periods under pressure, yet they find a way to score out of nowhere. Salah, in particular, is the catalyst for so many of these moments, but it’s not just him. Their attacking third is packed with players who are clinical and composed in front of goal.

This highlights a problem we’ve had for a while. I said it two years ago: when Rashford isn’t scoring, we don’t look dangerous at all. Højlund and Garnacho have shown flashes of potential, but they’re not yet at the level where they can consistently devastate opponents in front of goal.

What we need is our version of Salah—someone who can turn a game on its head with one moment of brilliance. A player who can punish the opposition out of nothing. If I were Amorim, I’d prioritise signing not just one striker but a duo: a striker and a second striker who can deliver those special, game-changing moments.

It’s going to cost us, no doubt, but with Rashford likely to leave and potential sales of Zirkzee and maybe even Garnacho, there’s an opportunity to raise significant funds for reinvestment.

If it were up to me, I’d target the obvious Viktor Gyökeres and Matheus Cunha. Both are not only clinical finishers but also relentless workers off the ball—exactly the kind of players we need to transform our attack. I’m not sure what the combined cost would be, but they’d bring the cutting edge we’re missing and give us the firepower to consistently compete at the highest level.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Goals change games—it’s as simple as that. When I watch Liverpool, there are times when they spend long periods under pressure, yet they find a way to score out of nowhere. Salah, in particular, is the catalyst for so many of these moments, but it’s not just him. Their attacking third is packed with players who are clinical and composed in front of goal.

This highlights a problem we’ve had for a while. I said it two years ago: when Rashford isn’t scoring, we don’t look dangerous at all. Højlund and Garnacho have shown flashes of potential, but they’re not yet at the level where they can consistently devastate opponents in front of goal.

What we need is our version of Salah—someone who can turn a game on its head with one moment of brilliance. A player who can punish the opposition out of nothing. If I were Amorim, I’d prioritise signing not just one striker but a duo: a striker and a second striker who can deliver those special, game-changing moments.

It’s going to cost us, no doubt, but with Rashford likely to leave and potential sales of Zirkzee and maybe even Garnacho, there’s an opportunity to raise significant funds for reinvestment.

If it were up to me, I’d target the obvious Viktor Gyökeres and Matheus Cunha. Both are not only clinical finishers but also relentless workers off the ball—exactly the kind of players we need to transform our attack. I’m not sure what the combined cost would be, but they’d bring the cutting edge we’re missing and give us the firepower to consistently compete at the highest level.

With Liverpool it’s the decision making that stands out. When they break 3v2 you know they’re going to make the right pass and sure enough… when we break 3v2 you just know someone is going to dribble up a blind alley or choose the wrong option. Since Amorin took over there’s been at least one scenario in every game where we’ve made a pig’s ear out of a situation where it looked easier to score. Hence we end up with slanging matches between Amad and Hojlund at the end of a game.

I think there’s more to it than just Salah. Liverpool’s front line is full of established players at peak age. Experienced enough to make the right decision, 9 times out of 10. We’re relying on youngsters still learning the game. Rashford is the only player in our front line who is the right age and he’s someone who has always been an atypically head down type of player. This is also a big factor in why Bruno is the only attacking player who seems capable of consistently creating goals for us. And he’s a bit of a flake an’ all!

So it really isn’t any surprise how much effective Liverpool are in the final third, even when you ignore the gulf in quality between the likes of Salah and our lot. We desperately need a more mature and consistent front line. I believe the saying is “you’ll never win anything with kids”.

 

[Walters_19_MuFc]

With Liverpool it’s the decision making that stands out. When they break 3v2 you know they’re going to make the right pass and sure enough… when we break 3v2 you just know someone is going to dribble up a blind alley or choose the wrong option.

I think there’s more to it than just Salah. Liverpool’s front line is full of established players at peak age. Experienced enough to make the right decision, 9 times out of 10. We’re relying on youngsters still learning the game. Rashford is the only player in our front line who is the right age and he’s someone who consistently plays with his head down. So it really isn’t any surprise how much more effective Liverpool are in the final third, even when you ignore the gulf in quality between the likes of Salah and our lot.

I can think of several moments yesterday where the decision-making was solid, but the finishing let us down. For example, there was Mainoo’s break where we had a 3-vs-2 advantage. He played it to Bruno, but Bruno’s shot went straight at the keeper. Then there was Amad Diallo, showing incredible composure in the box to set Bruno up again, only for Bruno to miss the target completely. A few years ago, Bruno would have buried those chances without a second thought.

Do I think our decision-making needs to improve? Absolutely. It’s something that stands out, especially with our young attackers who are still learning the game. They do make the wrong choices at times. But to be fair, we’re also creating plenty of quality opportunities—we’re just failing to capitalise on them.

That’s exactly why I mentioned the need to bring in two attacking players who can transform our front line. We need players who not only make the right decisions but also have the composure and quality to finish consistently in crucial moments.

 

[ShinjiNinja26]

I can think of several moments yesterday where the decision-making was solid, but the finishing let us down. For example, there was Mainoo’s break where we had a 3-vs-2 advantage. He played it to Bruno, but Bruno’s shot went straight at the keeper.

Tbf it wasn’t the best of passes by Mainoo, it was a bit bobbly and if anything ever so slightly behind Bruno which meant he couldn’t get the connection he wanted on the shot. I agree though are finishing in general is terrible.

 

[hellhunter]

Tbf it wasn’t the best of passes by Mainoo, it was a bit bobbly and if anything ever so slightly behind Bruno which meant he couldn’t get the connection he wanted on the shot. I agree though are finishing in general is terrible.

Bruno's finish also wasn't straight at the keeper at all. It was a good save

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I can think of several moments yesterday where the decision-making was solid, but the finishing let us down. For example, there was Mainoo’s break where we had a 3-vs-2 advantage. He played it to Bruno, but Bruno’s shot went straight at the keeper. Then there was Amad Diallo, showing incredible composure in the box to set Bruno up again, only for Bruno to miss the target completely. A few years ago, Bruno would have buried those chances without a second thought.

Do I think our decision-making needs to improve? Absolutely. It’s something that stands out, especially with our young attackers who are still learning the game. They do make the wrong choices at times. But to be fair, we’re also creating plenty of quality opportunities—we’re just failing to capitalise on them.

That’s exactly why I mentioned the need to bring in two attacking players who can transform our front line. We need players who not only make the right decisions but also have the composure and quality to finish consistently in crucial moments.

I’ve been very happy with our chance creation under Amorim. Even yesterday we created a load of great chances. I was specifically thinking about how we so often mess up promising counter attacks when young players make bad decisions. Which really stands out when you see how lethal Liverpool looked against Spurs yesterday.

I think Mainoo’s pass to Bruno is actually an example of this. The pass was bobbling and slightly behind him. The shot definitely wasn’t straight at the keeper but there wasn’t much more he could have done with that pass. In those scenarios we should be creating a tap in.

 

[Walters_19_MuFc]

Tbf it wasn’t the best of passes by Mainoo, it was a bit bobbly and if anything ever so slightly behind Bruno which meant he couldn’t get the connection he wanted on the shot. I agree though are finishing in general is terrible.

You’re never going to receive the perfect pass every time. In my view, the ball to Bruno was more than good enough for him to make quality contact, which he did. Unfortunately, his effort was directed straight at the keeper, and the opportunity was wasted.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

You’re never going to receive the perfect pass every time. In my view, the ball to Bruno was more than good enough for him to make quality contact, which he did. Unfortunately, his effort was directed straight at the keeper, and the opportunity was wasted.

At the end of the day we had a 3v2 at the edge of their box. That should have resulted in a better outcome than a bobbling pass slightly behind the attacker on the left.

 

[hellhunter]

At the end of the day we had a 3v2 at the edge of their box. That should have resulted in a better outcome than a bobbling pass slightly behind the attacker on the left.

Feel like it's exactly the situation you describe when talking about Liverpool. They play that pass correctly and score

 

[Walters_19_MuFc]

At the end of the day we had a 3v2 at the edge of their box. That should have resulted in a better outcome than a bobbling pass slightly behind the attacker on the left.

I'd argue that had Diaz or Salah received that same pass, they'd have scored.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I'd argue that had Diaz or Salah received that same pass, they'd have scored.

I’d argue that neither of them would have executed that pass so poorly. Which is my main point here. Young players making a mess of very promising situations.

 

[Walters_19_MuFc]

I’d argue that neither of them would have executed that pass so poorly. Which is my main point here. Young players making a mess of very promising situations.

I think calling the pass poor is a bit of an exaggeration. Even if it wasn’t ideal, my main point stands: we need attacking players who can create something out of nothing. Let’s not forget, we did have chances yesterday. Bruno had another clear opportunity in the box and completely missed the target. Top finishers take at least one of those chances—that’s the difference.

As I mentioned before, you’re never going to receive the perfect pass every time. That’s where the top class attacking players separate themselves from the good ones. A couple of seasons ago, Rashford didn’t need everything laid on a plate for him to score. Fast forward to now, and he’s not the same player, while the rest of our squad struggles to create or finish moments of brilliance on their own.

This is why I emphasised the need for the attacking players I mentioned. They don’t rely on perfect service to make an impact, and that’s exactly what we’re lacking. Players who can find a way to make the difference, even in tight or imperfect situations, are what will take us to the next level.

 

[Ekeke]

Nonsense. We had more possession, more shots, the better chances, had triple the amount of touches in their box than they did in ours (45 to 15).

We weren't dominated in the slightest.

While true, its also because Bournemouth were goals ahead and sat back. After they went to 3 nil they didnt have any need for attacking and they managed it with 8 shots, while we'd had 13 at that point and werent able to score.

We were never that threatening despite being the team that had the ball and were having more shots. We didnt look like finishing and we didnt.

 

[hellhunter]

While true, its also because Bournemouth were goals ahead and sat back. After they went to 3 nil they didnt have any need for attacking and they managed it with 8 shots, while we'd had 13 at that point and werent able to score.

We were never that threatening despite being the team that had the ball and were having more shots. We didnt look like finishing and we didnt.

All those metrics were in our favour at half time already

 

[Ali Dia]

Goals change games—it’s as simple as that. When I watch Liverpool, there are times when they spend long periods under pressure, yet they find a way to score out of nowhere. Salah, in particular, is the catalyst for so many of these moments, but it’s not just him. Their attacking third is packed with players who are clinical and composed in front of goal.

This highlights a problem we’ve had for a while. I said it two years ago: when Rashford isn’t scoring, we don’t look dangerous at all. Højlund and Garnacho have shown flashes of potential, but they’re not yet at the level where they can consistently devastate opponents in front of goal.

What we need is our version of Salah—someone who can turn a game on its head with one moment of brilliance. A player who can punish the opposition out of nothing. If I were Amorim, I’d prioritise signing not just one striker but a duo: a striker and a second striker who can deliver those special, game-changing moments.

It’s going to cost us, no doubt, but with Rashford likely to leave and potential sales of Zirkzee and maybe even Garnacho, there’s an opportunity to raise significant funds for reinvestment.

If it were up to me, I’d target the obvious Viktor Gyökeres and Matheus Cunha. Both are not only clinical finishers but also relentless workers off the ball—exactly the kind of players we need to transform our attack. I’m not sure what the combined cost would be, but they’d bring the cutting edge we’re missing and give us the firepower to consistently compete at the highest level.

We need a talisman. That was supposed to be Rashford according to his wages and PR team. Who can we get on the left 10 that is going to win us the tighter games? Will a LWB open up that side a bit more? I don’t see anyone coming in mid season and changing much anyway.

 

[Giggsy13]

Yet, conceded a ridiculous amount still.

Individual errors from players trying to learn a new system mid season is understandable though. This is a process and Amorim warned everyone that it would require some time.

 

[Walters_19_MuFc]

We need a talisman. That was supposed to be Rashford according to his wages and PR team. Who can we get on the left 10 that is going to win us the tighter games? Will a LWB open up that side a bit more? I don’t see anyone coming in mid season and changing much anyway.

Cunha

 

[Ali Dia]

Cunha

He’s going to cost a bomb. Another Jota type which would be miles better than flogging a dead horse with Rashford and trying to cajole him to play football. What this squad and players like Rashford really need is for whoever comes in for them to deliver. Not this two steps forward and one back. That’s the only way to raise the general quality and morale. Even Antony has been looking more lively since Amad has come into his own. We need that across the team.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I think calling the pass poor is a bit of an exaggeration. Even if it wasn’t ideal, my main point stands: we need attacking players who can create something out of nothing. Let’s not forget, we did have chances yesterday. Bruno had another clear opportunity in the box and completely missed the target. Top finishers take at least one of those chances—that’s the difference.

As I mentioned before, you’re never going to receive the perfect pass every time. That’s where the top class attacking players separate themselves from the good ones. A couple of seasons ago, Rashford didn’t need everything laid on a plate for him to score. Fast forward to now, and he’s not the same player, while the rest of our squad struggles to create or finish moments of brilliance on their own.

This is why I emphasised the need for the attacking players I mentioned. They don’t rely on perfect service to make an impact, and that’s exactly what we’re lacking. Players who can find a way to make the difference, even in tight or imperfect situations, are what will take us to the next level.

That all sounds a bit too much like Moments FC to me. I do agree we need as many elite attacking talents as possible (and I maintain that our age profile is a big issue) but I would like to see us move away from individual moments to being a systemically effective team. And the sort of chances we created yesterday were very much along those lines.


The good thing is that we’re still creating regular chances even though we’ve messed up loads of promising situations these last few weeks due to poor decision making from youngsters. I went off on a Mainoo tangent there but Hojlund and Garnacho (and, occasionally, Amad) have provided many more examples of what I’m talking about since Amorin took over. The shot that Hojlund dragged wide with Garnacho in acres of space in their box would be the most recent.