xG And Analytics Under Amorim

Crashoutcassius said:
watching the game, we were absolutely dominated by the better team bar one good spell in the first half. and fair enough once the game we lost we racked up a couple of goals in xg, with bruno in midfield, our best striker on and bournemouth backing off.

one of those games where the xg looks like an absolutely nonsense stat because of the game state and when you actually watch the game
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"We were absolutely dominated barring when we weren't in the first half, oh and the majority of the second half"

Yeah you don't have a clue
 
Its funny, those stats are quite reflective, it often feels like the opponents score from every half chance they have, whereas our players need either a open goal or 10 shots to score. Not sure if this is a slight on our defense or their clinicality. How many 1n1 has Garnacho had this season and failed to beat him?
 
Crashoutcassius said:
watching the game, we were absolutely dominated by the better team bar one good spell in the first half. and fair enough once the game we lost we racked up a couple of goals in xg, with bruno in midfield, our best striker on and bournemouth backing off.

one of those games where the xg looks like an absolutely nonsense stat because of the game state and when you actually watch the game
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Every single stat is telling you you're wrong yet you still think you're correct, incredible.
 
Crashoutcassius said:
watching the game, we were absolutely dominated by the better team bar one good spell in the first half. and fair enough once the game we lost we racked up a couple of goals in xg, with bruno in midfield, our best striker on and bournemouth backing off.

one of those games where the xg looks like an absolutely nonsense stat because of the game state and when you actually watch the game
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No. All our metrics were higher at every point in the game. In the last 5 minutes of the first half alone, we created more chances than they did all game.

We don’t have to make up alternative facts. We are wasteful infront of goal, can’t defend set pieces, and are very prone to defensive brain farts.

Let’s not add imagined made up problems like chance creation, possession, or “being dominated” which would only confuse the point.
 
Crashoutcassius said:
one of those games where the xg looks like an absolutely nonsense stat because of the game state and when you actually watch the game
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As an indication of a result, sure. But if you look at it from the perspective of having created 2.66 expected goals and scored 0, then it's a very poor reflection on the finishing regardless of how and when the chances came about in the context of the match.
 
Crashoutcassius said:
watching the game, we were absolutely dominated by the better team bar one good spell in the first half. and fair enough once the game we lost we racked up a couple of goals in xg, with bruno in midfield, our best striker on and bournemouth backing off.

one of those games where the xg looks like an absolutely nonsense stat because of the game state and when you actually watch the game
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Which game?
 
Ralaks said:
Its funny, those stats are quite reflective, it often feels like the opponents score from every half chance they have, whereas our players need either a open goal or 10 shots to score. Not sure if this is a slight on our defense or their clinicality. How many 1n1 has Garnacho had this season and failed to beat him?
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It’s both. We are not clinical, and we also have so many mistakes in our defensive line that presents the opponents with easy scoring opportunities.

The latter has been improving but it won’t happen in a straight line. We’ll get better, have a horrific game, get slightly better, and so on. I’m picking a terrible day to make this point but we’re getting better defensively.

On being clinical, does that improve? My view is we need more clinical attackers, there is no fix here
 
elisha27 said:
As an indication of a result, sure. But if you look at it from the perspective of having created 2.66 expected goals and scored 0, then it's a very poor reflection on the finishing regardless of how and when the chances came about in the context of the match.
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Fair enough. My point is more than we created chances when Bournemouth didn't really care. So you are correct our finishing was poor, our performance in creating chances was also poor, until it did not matter
 
Ralaks said:
Its funny, those stats are quite reflective, it often feels like the opponents score from every half chance they have, whereas our players need either a open goal or 10 shots to score. Not sure if this is a slight on our defense or their clinicality. How many 1n1 has Garnacho had this season and failed to beat him?
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When we were good it used to be that the goalkeeper would have a storming game and it felt like he’d make 10 good saves and they took their few chances. It’s not really like that now. We are camped out on the edge of the box (usually after we go behind these days) and we thread the odd ball through and smack it into the onrushing keeper and our crosses rarely beat the first man and if they do their central defenders just easily pop it out for a corner.
 
Squeaky_Bum_Time said:
No. All our metrics were higher at every point in the game. In the last 5 minutes of the first half alone, we created more chances than they did all game.

We don’t have to make up alternative facts. We are wasteful infront of goal, can’t defend set pieces, and are very prone to defensive brain farts.

Let’s not add imagined made up problems like chance creation, possession, or “being dominated” which would only confuse the point.
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Presume you think we dominated possession in the first half? Maybe you are getting confused.
 
Squeaky_Bum_Time said:
No. All our metrics were higher at every point in the game. In the last 5 minutes of the first half alone, we created more chances than they did all game.

We don’t have to make up alternative facts. We are wasteful infront of goal, can’t defend set pieces, and are very prone to defensive brain farts.

Let’s not add imagined made up problems like chance creation, possession, or “being dominated” which would only confuse the point.
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Agree although I do think Bournemouth did better than any side we’ve played recently (bar Arsenal) at breaking things up in the midfield and making life hard. Their press was good and we had a hard time playing through them.
 
Genuinely what game happened today where we were absolutely dominated? Am I living in a parallel universe? We weren’t good but this isn’t like the many bashings under Ten Hag where we were actually dominated over and over.
 
Squeaky_Bum_Time said:
It’s both. We are not clinical, and we also have so many mistakes in our defensive line that presents the opponents with easy scoring opportunities.

The latter has been improving but it won’t happen in a straight line. We’ll get better, have a horrific game, get slightly better, and so on. I’m picking a terrible day to make this point but we’re getting better defensively.

On being clinical, does that improve? My view is we need more clinical attackers, there is no fix here
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Re the latter part, completely agree. Bruno is at his peak but his finishing is incredibly poor and has regressed massively, he shoots completely randomly it feels. The amount of times we fail to hit the target....
 
Yagami said:


Another game where poor finishing and individual errors cost us. Things are looking positive, though. The platform is there; we just need the players.
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Think penalties are worth like 0.80xG so makes it less for Bournemouth not counting that penalty. But that 3rd goal reminded me of Spurs' 2nd and 3rd the other night. It looked just too easy for them. Plus another set piece goal that came in 1st half. Really poor.

Anyway, there are some good signs so far. Doesn't have to mean a lot but something to hold on to for the future.
 
Crashoutcassius said:
watching the game, we were absolutely dominated by the better team bar one good spell in the first half. and fair enough once the game we lost we racked up a couple of goals in xg, with bruno in midfield, our best striker on and bournemouth backing off.

one of those games where the xg looks like an absolutely nonsense stat because of the game state and when you actually watch the game
Click to expand...
True.
 
BorisManUtd said:
Think penalties are worth like 0.80xG so makes it less for Bournemouth not counting that penalty. But that 3rd goal reminded me of Spurs' 2nd and 3rd the other night. It looked just too easy for them. Plus another set piece goal that came in 1st half. Really poor.

Anyway, there are some good signs so far. Doesn't have to mean a lot but something to hold on to for the future.
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Almost a carbon copy of the Bournemouth match last season. Result, stats, XG.

With our own eyes we still see a United side that don't make themselves hard to score against and aren't clincal with the chances created. A hell of task on Rubens hands to turn this ship around.
 
Squeaky_Bum_Time said:
No. All our metrics were higher at every point in the game. In the last 5 minutes of the first half alone, we created more chances than they did all game.

We don’t have to make up alternative facts. We are wasteful infront of goal, can’t defend set pieces, and are very prone to defensive brain farts.

Let’s not add imagined made up problems like chance creation, possession, or “being dominated” which would only confuse the point.
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Being dominated is surely not a good choice of words but I you can't watch the games without thinking that chance creation, handling possession and dominating an opponent aren't an issue of this team. I'd agree with you, when we would have created multiple situations with missed sitters, fantastic saves from their keeper or not given penalties but that wasn't the case. Same for possession, we don't can buy ourselves anything for passing it around at the back without being able to increase the speed of play to make the opponent lose their shape.

One way to look at games is to look at game plans and how well those seemingly worked - Bournemouth were outworking us throughout the game, won most of the 50-50s, they took Amad, our main threat out of the game and exploited our key weaknesses (setpieces and handling quick transitions). You can't look at the stats and tell us that this was the plan - having possession but next to no penetration only to make use of the occasional long ball. Or that our plan was to create chances by shooting from distance or making use of somewhat the occasional bounce.

I'd say it would be way worse to act as if all we need is a striker to convert some chances and to fix the set pieces. I mean, obviously those would help but we'd be still looking at a team that doesn't play together as well as other teams do. And how that can look have we seen from Bournemouth today.
 
BorisManUtd said:
Think penalties are worth like 0.80xG so makes it less for Bournemouth not counting that penalty. But that 3rd goal reminded me of Spurs' 2nd and 3rd the other night. It looked just too easy for them. Plus another set piece goal that came in 1st half. Really poor.

Anyway, there are some good signs so far. Doesn't have to mean a lot but something to hold on to for the future.
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Before their pen, the xG was 1.06 to 0.32 in our favour so the belief that we didn't threaten until the game was over at 3-0 is daft. We were completely outplaying them until another individual error cost us.

I think the penalty added 0.76. Such a shame as Mazraoui has been so good.
 
Judas said:
Genuinely what game happened today where we were absolutely dominated? Am I living in a parallel universe? We weren’t good but this isn’t like the many bashings under Ten Hag where we were actually dominated over and over.
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I'm convinced majority of our fanbase just doesn't have a clue. From the mighty backing of Ten Hag because of a single cup win to now melting down over a lack of quality and some bad luck in games the overall performance has been improving consistently (in just a month mind you). It's insane.
 
always_hoping said:
Almost a carbon copy of the Bournemouth match last season. Result, stats, XG.

With our own eyes we still see a United side that don't make themselves hard to score against and aren't clincal with the chances created. A hell of task on Rubens hands to turn this ship around.
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XG was very different last season where they had more xG than us, both open play and total. Here they had a pen, the 3rd goal and then pretty much nothing else while we created lots. Didn't score so it's for nothing, result is the same so it's still shit, but it does give a lot more promise going forward than the last one.

If we keep doing well in the underlying stats, the results will eventually start coming too and confidence will build. But we do have to stop making brain-dead mistakes as it's shooting ourselves in the foot.
 
Crashoutcassius said:
Presume you think we dominated possession in the first half? Maybe you are getting confused.
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54% of the ball in the first half with 1.02 xG to their 0.18xG.

It was sloppy for 30 minutes but Bournemouth didn't do much either, but they did get a soft set piece goal and then they had something to hang on to while we couldn't hit a barn door today.
 
xG means feck all when the players creating it are terrible finishers.
 
bosnian_red said:
54% of the ball in the first half with 1.02 xG to their 0.18xG.

It was sloppy for 30 minutes but Bournemouth didn't do much either, but they did get a soft set piece goal and then they had something to hang on to while we couldn't hit a barn door today.
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Yes exactly as I saw it too. We were behind in possession until they scored and then they just let us have the ball. Nearly backfired as we actually had a decent spell then, the only good 15 mins we had today.
 
Surprised the Xg was that high today. Never felt like we were going to score at any point.
 
Yagami said:
Before their pen, the xG was 1.06 to 0.32 in our favour so the belief that we didn't threaten until the game was over at 3-0 is daft. We were completely outplaying them until another individual error cost us.

I think the penalty added 0.76. Such a shame as Mazraoui has been so good.
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I wouldn't say we were outplaying them. First half an hour was decent and even imo, not many chances for either side. Then we concede from set piece, start playing better and actually played well towards the end of half. Second half was like in almost all the other games recently - first 15 minutes where the other team has more of the ball and looks better and they score 1-2 goals. After that it got better again and a better team would score 1-2 from the chances our players had.

First is last season and second this season. Obviously Bournemouth had a penalty today which increases their xG. This is not to say we played well today because it wasn't the case. It's just better stats and something positive.



 
Leftback99 said:
Surprised the Xg was that high today. Never felt like we were going to score at any point.
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We had 2-3 really good chances and a bunch more what I would call good shooting opportunities.

It’s frankly bizarre we didn’t score at least one goal today. Not that it matters much, when we concede 3 though.
 
always_hoping said:
Almost a carbon copy of the Bournemouth match last season. Result, stats, XG.

With our own eyes we still see a United side that don't make themselves hard to score against and aren't clincal with the chances created. A hell of task on Rubens hands to turn this ship around.
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Really wasn't. Last season XG was 1.11-1.97 with no penalty.

We were woeful in the Bournemouth game last season, don't think we were as bad today.
 
BorisManUtd said:
I wouldn't say we were outplaying them. First half an hour was decent and even imo, not many chances for either side. Then we concede from set piece, start playing better and actually played well towards the end of half. Second half was like in almost all the other games recently - first 15 minutes where the other team has more of the ball and looks better and they score 1-2 goals. After that it got better again and a better team would score 1-2 from the chances our players had.

First is last season and second this season. Obviously Bournemouth had a penalty today which increases their xG. This is not to say we played well today because it wasn't the case. It's just better stats and something positive.



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We definitely started rough but, overall, I thought we were outplaying them, yes. In the first half, they did nothing outside of that soft set piece whereas we created, what, 3/4 big chances. Then, even though people are saying we started the 2nd half slowly, we still had more possession and chances created whilst Bournemouth offered nothing until Maz made a clumsy tackle. Outside of those two mistakes, they offered no threat whilst we were creating multiple chances.

Then, credit to Bournemouth, they scored a good goal, and we continued fluffing chance after chance.

In the context of where we are right now, and the scale of the mess Amorim walked into, I was happy with the performance and the progress we're showing.
 
Yagami said:
We definitely started rough but, overall, I thought we were outplaying them, yes. In the first half, they did nothing outside of that soft set piece whereas we created, what, 3/4 big chances. Then, even though people are saying we started the 2nd half slowly, we still had more possession and chances created whilst Bournemouth offered nothing until Maz made a clumsy tackle. Outside of those two mistakes, they offered no threat whilst we were creating multiple chances.

Then, credit to Bournemouth, they scored a good goal, and we continued fluffing chance after chance.

In the context of where we are right now, and the scale of the mess Amorim walked into, I was happy with the performance and the progress we're showing.
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There's definitely progress in terms of chance creation. We're creating situations which allows for chances rather than individual moments of brilliance

If we were clinical we easily could have had three goals ourselves.
We certainly need better players as there looks to be more positives to the system than negatives
 
Leftback99 said:
Surprised the Xg was that high today. Never felt like we were going to score at any point.
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Only because you know our finishing. There was substantial pressure for the last 10 minutes of the first half and some glaring misses.
 
We should rename ourselves "XG United" until we turn it round on the pitch. Claim the stats win each week.
 
Yagami said:
In the context of where we are right now, and the scale of the mess Amorim walked into, I was happy with the performance and the progress we're showing.
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I actually agree. Outside of Arsenal, which I thought was an embarrassing game because we spent the whole game afraid, I think Amorim has coached the team to a high standard, and/or made appropriate subs enough to get something out of matches.

It’s not his fault he has inherited a car crash from one of the worst managers we’ve ever had.
 
Crashoutcassius said:
Yes exactly as I saw it too. We were behind in possession until they scored and then they just let us have the ball. Nearly backfired as we actually had a decent spell then, the only good 15 mins we had today.
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That’s not true. We were also very good after they went 3-0 up. Obviously it’s impossible to know how much of that was down to them sitting back but we created a lot of chances and played good football. Those two spells are the reason we had much more possession and shots (and xG) than they did. There’s no way in hell we accumulate stats like that based on a good 15 minutes.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
That’s not true. We were also very good after they went 3-0 up. Obviously it’s impossible to know how much of that was down to them sitting back but we created a lot of chances and played good football. Those two spells are the reason we had much more possession and shots (and xG) than they did. There’s no way in hell we accumulate stats like that based on a good 15 minutes.
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All of it was down to them being 3 nil up in my view. Happens all the time. In NFL they call it garbage time which we don't have a word for annoyingly
 
Crashoutcassius said:
All of it was down to them being 3 nil up in my view. Happens all the time. In NFL they call it garbage time which we don't have a word for annoyingly
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It was a bit different to someone parking the bus though. We did actually play lots of really nice attacking football. And created some good chances. I know everyone is really pissed off so understand the lens it’s being viewed through but I reckon anyone neutral watching that second half would have been impressed by the football we played.
 
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