Who, with me, believes we can win the premier league?

Pronewbie said:
I'm a believer that City will get stripped off the title if they won, so I see the race being between both Arsenal and us, I would have been a believer of us winning the title if not for the Eriksen injury and Casemiro's suspension. That 6-pointer at the Emirates cost us dearly. Arsenal have been without Partey and Jesus for long periods and are still top. The only way we win this if Odegaard and Partey get injuries now, and Rashford doesn't go down. 1 down, 1 more to go, I suppose.
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More so Casa's suspensions have cost us in not having him for Arsenal & Leeds,particularly at Emirates because meant we weren't able to impose ourselves properly
 
Sanche7 said:
Title race or not, this has been an unbelievable season, especially after the shite that was last season and the few seasons before that. To imagine that we are even in the title race conversation is something most of us wouldn't have even dreamt of after the horror start to the season. And all this while being in all the other competitions we are in, right after dominating barca at Camp Nou and right before facing Newcastle in the cup final.
I for one am ready to believe, not going to overthink it but I'll just try to enjoy this amazing season.
Bring on Barcelona
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Just a niggly frustration we had such a bad week after the euphoria of beating City but it's lessons learnt for next season hopefully
 
Next door neighbour, Liverpool supporter thinks we will do it, more so than me actually
 
None of next three games are in the league. Really hope the players keep their focus on Barca and the final before thinking too much about a potential title push.

If Arsenal had dropped points at Villa, I would obviously be more optimistic, but that seems like a massive result that could really galvanize them. Especially, if they get Jesus and Partey back for the run-in. There is still a lot of football to be played, but we will also drop points at some point, so I think the 8 point gap will be too much. In any case, it's just great that we are sort of in the conversation. Let's see if we can get a results at Anfield and take it from there.
 
If I look at the table I have us around 80 points, Arsenal and City around 83-84, so it's doable, but basically we need to play at a 90 point rate to get to 82 and Arsenal only need to play at a 70 point pace to tie us and win on GD, so you're really talking about us being dominant OR Arsenal playing like a 5th or 6th place side.

12-1 betting odds. Those feel about right. 2-1 odds we play well enough to go at a 90 point clip the rest of the year (our GD is low and we're on pace for 77, though the first 2 games basically weren't indicative of much, so let's say 80) and then 5-1 odds that Arsenal and City both fail to play like 70 and 75 points team.

Arsenal being out of the cups means I think they'll just hang on. Arteta will throw away the Europe League and they'll keep Partey healthy enough and Odegaard (manic) and Gabriel (slow) fresh enough to not fall apart on them.
 
vanrooney said:
so you are saying that our midfield wouldnt be good if our 2 starting midfielders where out? quite astonishing analysis. every team will miss their best players. and yes, its not very likely that we win it but its absolutely ok to think about it and dare to dream when you are 3 points behind city, who are the favourites for me. arsenal will crash at some point
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What do you think of McFred then? They were good during Ole's 1st year, then AWOL afterwards. So you think these 2, under ETH's tactics, can survive?
 
Mike Smalling said:
None of next three games are in the league. Really hope the players keep their focus on Barca and the final before thinking too much about a potential title push.

If Arsenal had dropped points at Villa, I would obviously be more optimistic, but that seems like a massive result that could really galvanize them. Especially, if they get Jesus and Partey back for the run-in. There is still a lot of football to be played, but we will also drop points at some point, so I think the 8 point gap will be too much. In any case, it's just great that we are sort of in the conversation. Let's see if we can get a results at Anfield and take it from there.
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I get your point re the result against Villa but there's really nothing special about this Arsenal side. They're certainly not a patch on some of the 90 point teams we've seen in the last few years.

This Arsenal team will drop points I think, but lucky for them this is probably Pep's worst performing City team since his debut season, so it means they (Arsenal) don't need to be winning every game.

As for us - we're not in a title race, but if we're within touching distance come the start of April, we have an outside chance.
 
The Corinthian said:
I get your point re the result against Villa but there's really nothing special about this Arsenal side. They're certainly not a patch on some of the 90 point teams we've seen in the last few years.

This Arsenal team will drop points I think, but lucky for them this is probably Pep's worst performing City team since his debut season, so it means they (Arsenal) don't need to be winning every game.

As for us - we're not in a title race, but if we're within touching distance come the start of April, we have an outside chance.
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They are not special, no, but they are still really good. They have the difference makers in attack in Ødegaard and Saka, a pretty solid backline, solidity in midfield (at least when Partey is available), and really good cohesion and energy.

That being said, if they do end up winning the league, there would be similarities to the Leicester season - a good, but not great, side taking advantage of the usual suspects having a down year.
 
A lot of things obviously have to go our way. To state the obvious we just have to keep winning. We are on a bit of a knife edge, I always feel we are the combination away of City & Arsenal both winning on the same weekend, and us losing and then it would be over for us.

Stranger things have happened though. One thing is certain, all the momentum is with us at the moment and City & Arsenal will be feeling uncomfortable that we haven't gone away completely.

April is when the pressure really gets turned up. If we are still at this distance or closer by then and hang in there then you never know.
 
Rooney24 said:
A lot of things obviously have to go our way. To state the obvious we just have to keep winning. We are on a bit of a knife edge, I always feel we are the combination away of City & Arsenal both winning on the same weekend, and us losing and then it would be over for us.

Stranger things have happened though. One thing is certain, all the momentum is with us at the moment and City & Arsenal will be feeling uncomfortable that we haven't gone away completely.

April is when the pressure really gets turned up. If we are still at this distance or closer by then and hang in there then you never know.
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I feel confident that ETH has installed the mentality for that situation. Stamina is the unknown.
 
Arsenal will drop loads of points. Their run-in isn't exactly straightforward, but neither is our's. They'd probably need to lose 6 games before the end of the season for us to leapfrog them which seems highly implausible.

Nevertheless, it'd be absolutely superb if City were to win it with us coming second followed by a huge points deduction for City.
 
Arsenal's run in April/early May is difficult. Particular tough games in bold.

vs. Liverpool (A) -
vs. West Ham (A)
vs. Southampton (H)
vs. Man City (A)
vs. Chelsea (H)
vs. Newcastle (A)
vs. Brighton (H)

Meanwhile, for us in the same period. Particularly tough games in bold.

vs. Everton (H)
vs. Forest (A)
vs. Chelsea (H)
vs. Spurs (A)
vs. Villa (H)
vs. West Ham (A)
vs. Wolves (H)

There are far more games that could cause Arsenal to drop points than us. They could easily drop six or more points from those! Easily.
 
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I still hold hope that anything is possible.
We are the most in form side out of the top 4 currently, but maybe too many games will catch up with us.
Although I always look at that 2011-2 season when a better United side than Arsenal are now, dropped 8 points in those 4 games in the run in.
 
We're the outsiders of three but we are definitely in with a squeak.If,buts & maybes and all that jazz.
 
No reason to think we aren‘t in the title race. We are definitely in it. Just keep going.
 
fecking about with a results predictor for the remaining games and it had City coming out as winners by 3 points (90) and Arsenal & United level on 87. Arsenal to finish 2nd because of GD.

I didn't bother predicting their results, but based on form vs. remaining fixtures it had Liverpool finish 4th.

I did assume City would win most of their easy fixtures, but then I for us and Arsenal as well.
 
Reality is no, small outside chance yes but your assuming both City and Arsenal lose 3 and draw 2 or 3 from their last 14/15 games and we win 12/14. Thought about it today even if we post 86 points, pretty much our max I think, your are hoping Arsenal post 31 from 15 games and City 31 from 14 games. Then you realise that united have slipped up against Palace and Leeds and those 4 points would have put us right in the mix you also then let reality sink in where we are not wining 12 draw 1 and lose 1 from last 14 PL games as we simply have too many games.

The more likely outcome is that we consolidate 3rd place with a good points tally of 79-82 and finish 7 to 8 points behind the PL winner. I say this secretly smiling that we all know Arsenal could implode, finish behind us and bottle it but City will post at least 86 points. We just needed 5-7 points more throughout the season and a lot more luck with injuries.
 
NoPace said:
If I look at the table I have us around 80 points, Arsenal and City around 83-84, so it's doable, but basically we need to play at a 90 point rate to get to 82 and Arsenal only need to play at a 70 point pace to tie us and win on GD, so you're really talking about us being dominant OR Arsenal playing like a 5th or 6th place side.

12-1 betting odds. Those feel about right. 2-1 odds we play well enough to go at a 90 point clip the rest of the year (our GD is low and we're on pace for 77, though the first 2 games basically weren't indicative of much, so let's say 80) and then 5-1 odds that Arsenal and City both fail to play like 70 and 75 points team.

Arsenal being out of the cups means I think they'll just hang on. Arteta will throw away the Europe League and they'll keep Partey healthy enough and Odegaard (manic) and Gabriel (slow) fresh enough to not fall apart on them.
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Very good summing up except I would say Arsenal have a slightly tougher run in then us.

I reckon we'll end up 5 points off the top 2 who'll be close to each other.
 
Despite city’s slip ups, I think they’ll have enough to edge the league from arsenal. We’ll be there probably within 8 points or less but the crowded schedule and lack of squad depth will cost us in the end. We’ll finish with 75 to 80 points while the champion will be in an round 85 points with the way things are going.
 
We are in the title race, but I favor both Arsenal and City ahead of us. If I have to guess, I think City will get it again. Arsenal will have trouble when the pressure increases.
 
Hoof The Ball said:
Arsenal's run in April/early May is difficult. Particular tough games in bold.

vs. Liverpool (A) -
vs. West Ham (A)
vs. Southampton (H)
vs. Man City (A)
vs. Chelsea (H)
vs. Newcastle (A)
vs. Brighton (H)

Meanwhile, for us in the same period. Particularly tough games in bold.

vs. Everton (H)
vs. Forest (A)
vs. Chelsea (H)
vs. Spurs (A)
vs. Villa (H)
vs. West Ham (A)
vs. Wolves (H)

There are far more games that could cause Arsenal to drop points than us. They could easily drop six or more points from those! Easily.
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I'd love to be within 5 going into April
 
Arsenal's murderous 3 game run down the stretch will probably sink them. If City aren't in top form, we will have a chance to catch both of them. The key bit will be to remain in the form we're in now and avoid injuries to any of Rashford, Casemiro, or Bruno.
 
Revan said:
We are in the title race, but I favor both Arsenal and City ahead of us. If I have to guess, I think City will get it again. Arsenal will have trouble when the pressure increases.
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Exactly this, you can be in the race and not be a favourite. I still think City will get it but I do think we can catch Arsenal and you have to believe it's there, all is takes is a draw or two and suddenly there's no gap. If we're sticking around the top at the 30 game mark, prepare for muppetry we haven't see before.
 
Let's talk turkey on Arsenal shall we?

vs. Liverpool (A)
Arsenal have to go to Anfield. Telling you right now that despite how poor Liverpool have been, Luis Diaz, Jota, Firmino all will be available for that. Their injuries will have dried up and I don't see Arsenal taking three points from this. A point, probably.

vs. West Ham (A)
It's every bit an Arsenal win, however, it's an away tie so you never know, however, it's fair to call this one three points for Arsenal.

vs. Southampton (H)
Should be a very easy game for Arsenal at home vs Southampton, who are presently bottom of the league, but this could be a real banana skin depending on if Southampton are in reach of survival. They could end up running and playing like their lives are depending on it, but alas, let's assume three points.

vs. Man City (A)
They're not going to the Etihad and winning. City and done them over twice now. Pep has the range of Arteta and knows how to keep him in jab distance, so to speak. This i'm confident is City's three points. The psychological battle going into this having already lost twice will be defining factor.

vs. Chelsea (H)
On paper a very hard game. In reality who knows which Chelsea will show up under Potter. If Potter is in charge, then Arsenal could see this one through, but if Potter gets the heave prior to this game and a new boss has come in, then it could turn the tie into something difficult, new manager bounce and what have you.

vs. Newcastle (A)
This is straight up a tough game. Pushing for top four still, hoping others above will drop points. Difficult to break down with their uber-defensive tactics and it's at St. James Park. It's a real nightmare game to have to face right near the end.

vs. Brighton (H)
And speaking of nightmare games, who the f**k wants to play Brighton right now? You're never sure you're really going to beat them on any given day because they've proven they can outplay some of the best sides in the league.

West Ham and Southampton aside, Arsenal can drop three points on any of those games. Any of them. They're way more difficult than the City/United run in.
 
Olecurls99 said:
Very good summing up except I would say Arsenal have a slightly tougher run in then us.

I reckon we'll end up 5 points off the top 2 who'll be close to each other.
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The stat I saw says Arsenal have the easiest one actually.

They did really well to get Jorginho, they had nothing at DM when Partey is out, and now they have a good passer to help them dominate games, even if he's not ideal defensively, though they can have Xhaka help him out a bit more and Zinchenko gives him a partner most of the time anyways. Reminds me that I wouldn't be surprised if some summer Gabriel gets sold for them to bring in a faster LCB to cover all the space behind and wide of Zinchenko.

They can even go with Partey and Jorginho together and have Zinchenko in a more attacking role (or Tierney on the touchline playing wide and Trossard in the half-space to help Nketiah with the goal-scoring load) as a plan B, which they didn't have before.

City I have no idea. Bernardo Silva at LB suggest Guardiola is going through one of his manic periods, but he's won titles before in that state, and against better opposition. I do think it's a good sign for them that he's tweaking things tactically to try to get Haaland integrated into the team rather than just seeing him struggle to get a touch in tough games and then score 4 goals against Bournemouth over and over again.
 
If you weren’t so hit and miss in the beginning you would comfortably be in with a chance. This is by far your best season for a very long time - Even if you don’t replicate Ole’s 2nd place, which was a real low points total for that position.
 
As many posters have said already, we lack depth and the schedule is hectic. I believe the chances of us finishing outside of Top 4 (provided that we make it past Barca in the Europa Leaguer) are higher than winning the prem this season.
 
Water Melon said:
As many posters have said already, we lack depth and the schedule is hectic. I believe the chances of us finishing outside of Top 4 (provided that we make it past Barca in the Europa Leaguer) are higher than winning the prem this season.
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Nah no chance we’re finishing outside top 4 now!
 
Hoof The Ball said:
Arsenal's run in April/early May is difficult. Particular tough games in bold.

vs. Liverpool (A) -
vs. West Ham (A)
vs. Southampton (H)
vs. Man City (A)
vs. Chelsea (H)
vs. Newcastle (A)
vs. Brighton (H)

Meanwhile, for us in the same period. Particularly tough games in bold.

vs. Everton (H)
vs. Forest (A)
vs. Chelsea (H)
vs. Spurs (A)
vs. Villa (H)
vs. West Ham (A)
vs. Wolves (H)

There are far more games that could cause Arsenal to drop points than us. They could easily drop six or more points from those! Easily.
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Arsenal’s schedule is tough, last 6 games are:
- 26/4 City (title decider?)
- 29/4 Chelsea (they will improve some day, maybe playing for Europa league by then?)
- 6/5 Newcastle (playing for Champions League?)
- 13/5 Brighton (playing for Europa league?)
- 20/5 Forest (playing for survival?)
- 28/5 Wolves (playing for survival? Improving under Lopetegui)

I think it could be possible for us to really challenge for the league. Although when Arsenal will bottle the League, I think City will take it and not us. But it will also depend for all teams how the will progress in Europe in the next months.

For now we are to far away, but a lot can change and we have to be ready and win our games if things go our way. If we get the chance we really have to take it, Arsenal and City are not that strong.
 
Win our next 3 league games and we’ll be considered by everyone as in the title race. The anfield game esp is a statement game for both teams now. We can lose to West Ham in the FA cup but a Cup final and Barca wins would really ramp up the belief that this team has real quality, regardless of what ABU’s spout.
 
Water Melon said:
As many posters have said already, we lack depth and the schedule is hectic. I believe the chances of us finishing outside of Top 4 (provided that we make it past Barca in the Europa Leaguer) are higher than winning the prem this season.
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I read somewhere the odds for top 4 are 73 %. And win the league are 3 %.

So 27 against 3.
 
NoPace said:
The stat I saw says Arsenal have the easiest one actually.

They did really well to get Jorginho, they had nothing at DM when Partey is out, and now they have a good passer to help them dominate games, even if he's not ideal defensively, though they can have Xhaka help him out a bit more and Zinchenko gives him a partner most of the time anyways. Reminds me that I wouldn't be surprised if some summer Gabriel gets sold for them to bring in a faster LCB to cover all the space behind and wide of Zinchenko.

They can even go with Partey and Jorginho together and have Zinchenko in a more attacking role (or Tierney on the touchline playing wide and Trossard in the half-space to help Nketiah with the goal-scoring load) as a plan B, which they didn't have before.

City I have no idea. Bernardo Silva at LB suggest Guardiola is going through one of his manic periods, but he's won titles before in that state, and against better opposition. I do think it's a good sign for them that he's tweaking things tactically to try to get Haaland integrated into the team rather than just seeing him struggle to get a touch in tough games and then score 4 goals against Bournemouth over and over again.
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I think their back-up is less than ours:
- Tomiyasu is not having a great season
- Kiwior has just signed and is somewhat unknown in the PL.
- Tierney is not having a great season and doesn’t play a lot because of Zinchenko
- Smith Rowe is always injured
- Elneny is not good and injured
- Vieira has almost no impact on games and Arteta doesn’t play him a lot
- Nelson has been injured a lot and is not the player he looked when he was young
- Trossard not as good yet as he was at Brighton.

And they have problems with the first team:
- Jesus has been injured since the wc, they really missed him but how good will he come back
- Partey injured again and has always multiple injury spells in the season
- Xhaka is just Xhaka doing Xhaka things
- Odegaard not as good as the first part of the season where he was the best midfielder in the league
- Martinelli not as good as the first part of the season since the wc

So a lot of pressure for their star players Saliba, Saka and Zinchenko to perform to keep them in the title race.

Arteta doesn’t trust his subs and lets the first team play to much. Big chance they will bottle it. But I think City will grab it then.
 
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3rd place is where my money is at. Our squad is too thin, but it is great to see us in the mix again
 
It really feels good to even think we might be in a title race. There are still many games to play, I wouldn't get my hopes up unless we cut the lead to 3-5 points in March then it is squeaky bum time and anything goes.

As it stands now, it is not likely as there are 2 teams ahead of us that even one stumbles the other are in position to take advantage.
 
We need to hit unreal form. If we can do that then we’ll win the league. Just not sure we can!

So I think we need 36 points. 11 wins, 3 draws.
 
we can conceivably be 12+ pts behind them by the time we play a league game again, away, to Liverpool. Lose or draw that game and we are out of the equation.

the margin of error has always been incredibly small for us after the start to the season that we had. And we are merely keeping pace with them, not outperforming them to make up that deficit (Leeds & Palace draws). For us to have a chance, they need to have another disastrous run of 4-5 winless games while we actually capitalize on that, instead of matching them with our own disappointing run. Possible? Yes. Probable? Very unlikely.

And that's to say nothing of City. They are still capable of blowing away any team in the league and there wont be many days where Haaland misses open goal like against Forest.
 
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