In order, but tiered:
Tier 1 - Favorites (Only winning it is a win)
Recent Examples: Spain 2010, Germany 2010
Spain, Brazil
-Home team, and the best squad and winner of the last three. At gunpoint, I'd go with Spain.
Tier 2 - A Good Chance (Losing in the finals would be an excellent result, though)
Recent Examples: Netherlands 2010, Germany's not so talented 2002 finalists
Argentina, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium
-Originally wasn't going to include Belgium, but 4 talented CB's across the back and Hazard, Lukaku is a great start to a team that could shock a favorite or two on the counter.
-Most likely the winner comes from this group. I'd go for France, myself, since their CB's are capable of short-term brilliance, they have an athletic and talented group of CM's and Ribery-Benzema-Griezmann at least looks good on paper. Easy group, too.
Tier 3 - A Chance (but Semis would be a win)
Recent Examples: Uruguay 2010, South Korea 2002
Chile, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, England, Croatia, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Japan, Russia
-Any of the first 3 South American teams could actually win it, along with the Swiss too, who have a great manager, did well in qualifying, have an incredible defensive record over the last 2 World Cups, a midfield that plays together for Napoli, a fresh Shaqiri, but no striker. Give them Chapuisat and a time machine and I'd have them between Portugal and Belgium in tier 2.
Tier 4 - Could theoretically pull a Greece/Denmark (QF loss to the Champions where they are the better team is their realistic but optmistic limit)
Recent Examples: Paraguay 2010 (took Spain to the limit), USA 2002 (outplayed Germany in their QF loss)
Korea, USA, Mexico, Bosnia, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria, Greece
-Bosnia have enough top-end talent for Tier 3, but I think attacking-oriented teams have a bit less of a chance of a cinderella run in the knockout
-The African teams have decent front sixes, but ugly backlines. Same for Korea. All of them have the midfield quality to outplay a much better team once or twice (like Russia's teams have at times in recent years), but you can't go too far with a hideous backline.
Tier 5 - Under no circumstances whatsoever are they even making the semis.
Recent Examples: New Zealand 2010 (no losses) Trinidad 2006 (did well)
-Algeria, Costa Rica, Honduras, Australia, Iran