Westminster Politics
- Thread starter altodevil
- Start date
Eurgh.
...
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3778978/parliament-return-2017-general-election-mps-sworn-in/
Slightly different to what the beeb was saying. Guess we'll know if we have a government around June 27
There's something that's confusing me.
The Tories have ruled out a formal coalition with the DUP. So whatever happens this will be a minority. So my question is, what are these talks about? I know the 10 mps from the DUP have to vote in favour but surely with sinn fein absteining she doesn't need the DUP, surely?
The Tories have ruled out a formal coalition with the DUP. So whatever happens this will be a minority. So my question is, what are these talks about? I know the 10 mps from the DUP have to vote in favour but surely with sinn fein absteining she doesn't need the DUP, surely?
No they still need the DUP votes. Discussions are to confirm they'll vote on queen speech and other policy votes.
Just watching Parliament and Bercrow really is a gent. Glad rest of the tories don't like him as he'd make a good tory leader
It's confidence and supply - literally an agreement for them to vote with the Tories on confidence motions for the PM, and budgets. Sinn Fein not being there brings the working majority total down from 326 to 322 (can't remember if the deputy speakers are also taken into account on this, if so then it's down to 320). Tories are at 317 so need the DUP to either vote with them or abstain. It's basically just about having a secure agreement in place that means there's no near term threat of the government being brought down.
Technically if the DUP abstained too, they would have a majority. But if they actively vote against the Tories, she doesn't.
Seats in Commons - 650 (total), 649 (minus speaker), 642 (minus speaker and Sinn Fein)
For Majority - 325 (total or minus speaker), 322 (minus Speaker and Sinn Fein )
Tories Government - 317 (total), 327 (with DUP)
You can see it actually makes very little difference if Sinn Fein did randomly decide to take their seats or not. With the DUP they have a majority. Without, not.
But what will be difficult for them is avoid losing votes. What if they have some MPs missing? What if there are some by-elections? If Labour get a vote of no confidence passed, and there is no new government with 14 days, we get a new General Election. In 1974 and 1996, I believe MPs often slept in parliament to try to surprise or not be surprised by a vote.
Forming a coalition (or having confidence and supply) with the DUP is all about making sure that the Tories are *cough* strong and stable.
In theory, the DUP-Conservatives could form a rock solid coalition that would last all 5 years (peace in Northern Ireland be damned). In practice, betfair have got the odds of another General Election before 2019 at around 52%. Which seems fair.
It all depends on how quickly Corbyn can sap the energy from whatever Government May throws together. He needs every SNP and Lib Dem MP (at least) to vote with him to bring down the Tories, if it's even possible. The Tories will be desperate not to have another General Election until the polls turn their way.
Odd seeing the Commons so jovial rather than shouting over each other
As i typed that Farron was the first to get groans on mention of his name. They're still groaning at him, didnt realise he was so disliked
As i typed that Farron was the first to get groans on mention of his name. They're still groaning at him, didnt realise he was so disliked
The woman ro the right of screen of Farron looks like michael jackson
Burn
12/5 on another GE in 2017.
Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn are both 5/2 to be next PM.
Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn are both 5/2 to be next PM.
Not as likely as would be my preference! JC definitely has the momentum and support now, but its all to do with if the Tories can manage any kind of governments with the DUP and their.. um.. slightly backward views on a lot of things.
Betfair marketplace have got Jeremy being next PM as 4/1. I guess because the chances are that the Conservatives would choose a new PM before the next GE is called. Boris Johnson at 3/1
I don't see Bojo beating Corbyn. Boris has been well and truly sussed now.
I reckon if the next few shaky months or so go OK for the Tories , then it will mean no PM Corbyn. It'll be the next Labour leader (Probably Cooper or Clive Lewis).
Indeed.
He's growing and growing in stature, more confidence and more swagger. It's fantastic, people believe in people who believes in themselves so the higher his shoulders are held and the brighter the glint in his eye, the more people will get behind him.
Of course it's dubbed
Of course it's dubbed
I think it was the hope that it wasn't that was making me think there was a chance it may have actually happened.It's fascinating to watch. He never meant to be Labour leader but it turned out an awful lot of people wanted him to, so he went for it. I don't think he's ever really meant to be PM, until now, but turns out an awful lot of people want him to, so he's gonna give it a go.
I don't think he ever meant to give me a million quid.
*waits*
*waits some more*
Poop...
I'm afraid you may need an awful lot of people to want him to give you a million quid. I mean... I'm on board but there's still a few to go.
Doh. Good thinking, chiefo. 
I love how Jez has grown this new, oddly laddy persona.
I blame AFTV, mate.I love how Jez has grown this new, oddly laddy persona.
I love how Jez has grown this new, oddly laddy persona.
Cracking a cold one open with the comrades.
So true.I love how Jez has grown this new, oddly laddy persona.
I've always liked Bercrow, why is it Tories don't like him?
He was on the moderate wing of the party, and the hardline Tories never really trusted him. There was even talk back before he became speaker of him maybe defecting to Labour. Supposedly very few Tories actually voted for him as speaker.
Oh and his wife is a Labour supporter who campaigned for Tony Blair, which probably didn't help.
He's a big gooner as well. I like Bercrow.