Westminster Politics 2024-2029

Blood Mage said:
You would think Labour are getting all of these unpopular decisions out of the way and taking the hit on their approval ratings in the hope that they can turn the economy around in time for the next election. Right now they are looking more ruthless than the Tories though so they had better hope the gamble pays off.
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Spot on!
Starmer's 10-year plan to 'move the dial' for ordinary folk, depends on it. No doubt his calculations include for a halving of his majority in 2029, but still enough 'in power' to complete the ' 'dial shift'

There will have to be a few "spoonful's of sugar to make the medicine go down" .... no doubt, some of that doled out to public sector workers already.

He will however be still on a 'balancing act' and will need all the skills of Nadia Comaneci (first perfect 10 in gymnastics 1976 Olympics) to see it through.... and hope for no 'unplanned events' to blow him off course.
 


Around 60 in the dinghy, reports that the bottom split.

They need to get some safe routes opened up to truly deal with this.
 
Jericholyte2 said:


Around 60 in the dinghy, reports that the bottom split.

They need to get some safe routes opened up to truly deal with this.
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This is so awfully tragic. We definitely need safe routes opened up ASAP.

I do wonder what these people hear or are told by the traffickers about life in the UK. I've never been one of the people who is just incessantly negative about everything in the UK and I know that some will have some specific pull factors in the UK like family.

But once you're already on the mainland, I'm really struggling to balance the risk of crossing the channel on one of these awful dinghies vs just staying in a country like France, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark etc.
 
africanspur said:
This is so awfully tragic. We definitely need safe routes opened up ASAP.

I do wonder what these people hear or are told by the traffickers about life in the UK. I've never been one of the people who is just incessantly negative about everything in the UK and I know that some will have some specific pull factors in the UK like family.

But once you're already on the mainland, I'm really struggling to balance the risk of crossing the channel on one of these awful dinghies vs just staying in a country like France, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark etc.
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I've spent some time with refugees in Italy, like you say its usually family ties or friends drawing them to a destination but the UK is known to be more favourable than others with the settlement process and what support is available to them. I never met anybody with the UK as the end goal, it was mostly Germany and Scandinavia.
 

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11101 said:
I've spent some time with refugees in Italy, like you say its usually family ties or friends drawing them to a destination but the UK is known to be more favourable than others with the settlement process and what support is available to them. I never met anybody with the UK as the end goal, it was mostly Germany and Scandinavia.
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:lol: cloud cuckoo land
 
Maticmaker said:
Spot on!
Starmer's 10-year plan to 'move the dial' for ordinary folk, depends on it. No doubt his calculations include for a halving of his majority in 2029, but still enough 'in power' to complete the ' 'dial shift'

There will have to be a few "spoonful's of sugar to make the medicine go down" .... no doubt, some of that doled out to public sector workers already.

He will however be still on a 'balancing act' and will need all the skills of Nadia Comaneci (first perfect 10 in gymnastics 1976 Olympics) to see it through.... and hope for no 'unplanned events' to blow him off course.
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It doesnt matter how many times you use that phrase in this thread, all evidence points to the dial remaining unmoved by his policies.
 
Protectionism for corporation profits, the full might of thrive or die capitalism for the powerless.

That is starmer, it was who he was at the CPS, pushing for prison sentences measured in years for stealing bottles of water during riots and declining to prosecute the murderers of Jean Charles de Menezes despite the police, Cressida Dick included, lying about it all being known at the time, being just one illustration of this trend.

If you are strong, he won't go for you, if you are weak, he will do his best to end you.

 
Nogbadthebad said:
Protectionism for corporation profits, the full might of thrive or die capitalism for the powerless.

That is starmer, it was who he was at the CPS, pushing for prison sentences measured in years for stealing bottles of water during riots and declining to prosecute the murderers of Jean Charles de Menezes despite the police, Cressida Dick included, lying about it all being known at the time, being just one illustration of this trend.

If you are strong, he won't go for you, if you are weak, he will do his best to end you.

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September 2011
Rioters are being sentenced too harshly and should be treated like any other case in the courts, according to the head of the Crown Prosecution Service.
Director of Public Prosecutions Keir Starmer insisted that those involved in last month's disturbances should not be regarded as a 'separate category' or dealt with differently from other criminals.

His comments come amid concern that sentences being handed down to rioters are disproportionate. Some surveys have even suggesting they are a quarter longer than normal
On Friday a 17-year-old girl who stole a bottle of Lucozade and some sweets from Poundland during the civil unrest was jailed for eight months.

Mr Starmer did not criticise the sentencing of rioters but stressed: 'We should not treat these cases as a separate category to be dealt with differently.'We should treat them as we do any other case. We need to keep our feet on the ground. In other areas, such as big terrorism cases, we have resisted the temptation to call for special measures. With disorder cases, we should adopt the same approach,' he said to the Daily Telegraph.
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A doctor's daughter, who cannot be named for legal reasons, stole a bottle of Lucozade and helped herself to some T-shirts and a pair of sunglasses as violence broke out in Peckham.
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DanH said:
September 2011
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There was a "relaxing of the thresholds to determine whether to press charges, and a push for longer jail sentences", said The Times. More than 3,000 arrests were made and almost 2,000 people were charged with offences related to the riots.

A lawyer who represented clients during the riots described the response as "brutal" and the London Evening Standard said that although the "swift and severe" judicial response "effectively restored order in the short term", it also "sparked debate about the balance between deterrence and fairness".
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https://theweek.com/crime/keir-starmer-2011-london-riots-the-lessons
 
looking at the grenfell report, and when it comes to issues around how public contracts were awarded, theres lots of long sentences ....such as" Moore-Bick says the council's housing company (or TMO) manipulated the process of appointing an architect to carry out the refurbishment of Grenfell Tower so it could appoint its chosen firm, Studio..."

i can think of another word that is strangely absent, begins with C
 
Superden said:
looking at the grenfell report, and when it comes to issues around how public contracts were awarded, theres lots of long sentences ....such as" Moore-Bick says the council's housing company (or TMO) manipulated the process of appointing an architect to carry out the refurbishment of Grenfell Tower so it could appoint its chosen firm, Studio..."

i can think of another word that is strangely absent, begins with C
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It is absolutely bonkers that we put councillors in charge of enormous sums of money and don't even pay them a salary.
 
TwoSheds said:
:lol: cloud cuckoo land
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Spoken like somebody with no clue about the asylum processes in other countries. The UK has by far the highest asylum approval rate of major European countries. We average about a 70% approval rate compared to anything between 46% for Germany down to 10% for Spain. Only relevant if you wish to understand why people take the risk of crossing the channel when they're already in France (37% approval). If you just want to shout i hate Tories as loud as you can, probably not so important.
 
11101 said:
Spoken like somebody with no clue about the asylum processes in other countries. The UK has by far the highest asylum approval rate of major European countries. We average about a 70% approval rate compared to anything between 46% for Germany down to 10% for Spain. Only relevant if you wish to understand why people take the risk of crossing the channel when they're already in France (37% approval). If you just want to shout i hate Tories as loud as you can, probably not so important.
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"Asylum processing in the UK has been impacted by the Illegal Migration Act of 2023, which has led to some challenges, including:

Ban on granting leave to irregular arrivals
The Act bans the granting of leave to those who arrived in the UK irregularly after March 7, 2023. This could impact all asylum claims made after that date, even if the applicant arrived legally.

Lack of guidance
Before the election, there was no guidance on how to implement the ban, which meant that no applications could be processed."

If you ban processing asylum claims (bearing in mind there aren't many legal routes to arrive) it doesn't really matter what percentage of claims are accepted. 0% or 100% of feck all is still pretty much feck all.
 
TwoSheds said:
It is absolutely bonkers that we put councillors in charge of enormous sums of money and don't even pay them a salary.
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just from little working knowledge of councils, the amount of lets say small c corruption in public works would be easily in the billions. its amazing that nothing is done. odd headline in the private eye notwithstanding. when put against the chronic lack of services due to lack of funding, then its even more galling.
 
Nogbadthebad said:
Protectionism for corporation profits, the full might of thrive or die capitalism for the powerless.

That is starmer, it was who he was at the CPS, pushing for prison sentences measured in years for stealing bottles of water during riots and declining to prosecute the murderers of Jean Charles de Menezes despite the police, Cressida Dick included, lying about it all being known at the time, being just one illustration of this trend.

If you are strong, he won't go for you, if you are weak, he will do his best to end you.

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How is this even a remotely good idea? Can any of the Starmer supporters or mr move the dial please explain the merit in this?
 
Nogbadthebad said:
Protectionism for corporation profits, the full might of thrive or die capitalism for the powerless.

That is starmer, it was who he was at the CPS, pushing for prison sentences measured in years for stealing bottles of water during riots and declining to prosecute the murderers of Jean Charles de Menezes despite the police, Cressida Dick included, lying about it all being known at the time, being just one illustration of this trend.

If you are strong, he won't go for you, if you are weak, he will do his best to end you.

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All they give a feck about is corporate profit, they will do absolutely anything to maximize it.
 


The poll she mentions on scrapping the two child benefit limit is interesting, with 50% of Labour votes opposed and only 38% in favour. Even in the sole cohort supporting scrapping the cap, 18-24 year olds, only 46% are in favour, with 32% against. Hadn't seen polling on the issue before.
 
TwoSheds said:
"Asylum processing in the UK has been impacted by the Illegal Migration Act of 2023, which has led to some challenges, including:

Ban on granting leave to irregular arrivals
The Act bans the granting of leave to those who arrived in the UK irregularly after March 7, 2023. This could impact all asylum claims made after that date, even if the applicant arrived legally.

Lack of guidance
Before the election, there was no guidance on how to implement the ban, which meant that no applications could be processed."

If you ban processing asylum claims (bearing in mind there aren't many legal routes to arrive) it doesn't really matter what percentage of claims are accepted. 0% or 100% of feck all is still pretty much feck all.
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From June 2023 to June 2024 the UK approved 68,000 asylum applications, 3 times more than the previous year. Again, if you want to know why people cross the Channel here are the reasons. Otherwise admit you know feck all about the topic and move on.
 
11101 said:
From June 2023 to June 2024 the UK approved 68,000 asylum applications, 3 times more than the previous year. Again, if you want to know why people cross the Channel here are the reasons. Otherwise admit you know feck all about the topic and move on.
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Where did you get that stat?

The government's own site (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-december-2023/how-many-people-do-we-grant-protection-to#:~:text=There were 67,337 asylum applications (relating to 84,425 people) in,in 2002 (84,132 applications).) only has data til end '23 and suggests there were 74,172 decisions made, of which 67% were granted (49,600ish)
 
11101 said:
From June 2023 to June 2024 the UK approved 68,000 asylum applications, 3 times more than the previous year. Again, if you want to know why people cross the Channel here are the reasons. Otherwise admit you know feck all about the topic and move on.
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Do you want to have a wild stab in the dark about whether that was more than twice as many or less than half as many as were granted in Germany?
 
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decorativeed said:
It doesnt matter how many times you use that phrase in this thread, all evidence points to the dial remaining unmoved by his policies.
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He hasn't started yet, loads of inertia yet to over come to get things moving.

I reckon there is about two years of 'siting' of targets, maybe the odd improvement here and there, to come first, then third year he starts to make some incremental gains and fourth year the main aims and 'ways and means' become clear.... enough to get Labour re-elected in 2029.

Then part two of the actual 'moving the dial' kicks in around 2030-32.

It all depends on how much 'head wind' he encounters, both from other parties, notably Reform (if his plans for ending the boat saga doesn't work) and what are the likely other 'unplanned or unavoidable 'events', plus the 'revolts' occurring in Labour that will slow him down or drive him off course.

It also all depends on the man himself and the people immediately around him, Starmer doesn't need to be an all 'singing and dancing populist', a Blair Mk2, etc. he just needs to be a man who sets his face like flint and gets the job done.

In my opinion there is no quick fix, and if the dial doesn't move, in the next ten years, it never will.
 
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Maticmaker said:
He hasn't started yet, loads of inertia yet to over come to get things moving.

I reckon there is about two years of 'siting' of targets, maybe the odd improvement here and there, to come first, then third year he starts to make some incremental gains and fourth year the main aims and 'ways and means' become clear.... enough to get Labour re-elected in 2029.

Then part two of the actual 'moving the dial' kicks in around 2030-32.

It all depends on how much 'head wind' he encounters, both from other parties, notably Reform (if his plans for ending the boat saga doesn't work) and what are the likely other 'unplanned or unavoidable 'events', plus the 'revolts' occurring in Labour that will slow him down or drive him off course.

It also all depends on the man himself and the people immediately around him, Starmer doesn't need to be an all 'singing and dancing populist', a Blair Mk2, etc. he just needs to be a man who sets his face like flint and gets the job done.

In my opinion there is no quick fix, and if the dial doesn't move, in the next ten years, it never will.
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I find it hilarious that you think any of this makes sense.
 
TheGame said:
Absolute state of this list. Appalling set of individuals.

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That list is hilarious, great news if you hate the tories! None of those will get more support, although it will just push people to Farage.

It’s nice that the Tories have their vote split for a change!
 
TheGame said:
Absolute state of this list. Appalling set of individuals.

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This amuses me because it is a reminder of how few Tory MPs there are.

Also I bet on Jenrick to win some time ago, and although the winner will be decided by the geriatric membership it does indicate he might get through to last two.
 
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