US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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Paul won't win but he said some things that gained traction. Especially in the area of reducing the size and spending of gov't.

I think Romney is the only real threat. In the end it will probably be Obama again. Mainly because there isn't another viable candidate from the repubs. And in the US if you're not in the 2 big parties you're taken serious.
 
Perry is a joke. He will appeal to the base but independents decide elections. They will never vote for a batshit crazy cnut like him.

If a repub wins I'd be OK with Romney. He's as liberal a republican as they come. He just has to say stupid shit so he doesn't get dumped early by the party nutters.
 
The only person that would surely scare Obama is Rudy Giuliani. Irrespective of what he says, you don't do events in New Hampshire at this point in the election cycle unless you have a vested interest.
 
Team Brian GB said:
The only person that would surely scare Obama is Rudy Giuliani. Irrespective of what he says, you don't do events in New Hampshire at this point in the election cycle unless you have a vested interest.
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In case you missed it, Giuliani has run before and didn't fare very well. Obama would trounce him in a general election. In addition to that, he's far too "liberal" for the conservative base to ever see the light of day on a Republican ticket.
 
sglowrider said:
Rick Perry. Any chances of winning the nomination?
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He's the only Republican candidate that could probably galvanize their three pillars of (social, fiscal, and defense) Conservatives, which will be required to challenge Obama. Republicans have to hold down the south and reclaim a few states that Obama won in 08 - probably Virginia, NC, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado etc, in order to have a chance.
 
Rick Perry is nuts and will be an easy target for scorn. He can unite the GOP if he can fend off the tons of criticism he'll face. He and Michelle Bachmann would be the best targets for Obama and his campaign. Bringing out their craziness would be like shooting fish in a barrel. Unfortunately, many are too stupid to see the blatant hypocrisy of both candidates along with their massive delusions. They've both used the "God has called me to run for President" lie to get support, which is insulting.
 
MrMarcello said:
Any word on Bloomberg running independently?
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Bloomberg would most likely fall in the same catagory as Giullani. He donated $50 million to the Sierra Club not too long ago. How would that fly with the 'climate change is a hoax' crowd that rules the GOP?

It's an automatic disqualifier amongst those on the right. So, he wouldn't have the draw from both sides that some people might expect. If anything, it would hurt the Republican side more than it would go against Obama.
 
Raoul said:
In case you missed it, Giuliani has run before and didn't fare very well. Obama would trounce him in a general election. In addition to that, he's far too "liberal" for the conservative base to ever see the light of day on a Republican ticket.
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No I didn't miss it, and I am well aware of his issues getting through the Republican Primaries, but that doesn't mean that if he was the Republican nominee that Obama wouldn't be scared by him as he is one of the very few nationally renowned Republicans who could take independents and even moderate democrats from the President.
 
Thinking about it if I was Giuliani and I wanted the nomination, I wouldn't do what I did last time but I would still ignore the early states.

He would have a hope in hell of taking the early states from the nutters, I'd leave Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina to them. There are enough of them in the race and enough dynamics to see that there is no early presumptive nominee coming out of there and after all, New Hampshire and Iowa are hardly big on delegates.

In order to avoid getting involved in such battles, and to maximise his exposure and appeal, if I were him I would stay quiet until the early states have had their primaries, and would declare his intention as close to Super Tuesday as possible. There should be no clear winner by then, and it would be clear there would only be a choice between nutters. It would cause such a huge stir and put a massive spin on the nomination race the entire focus would be on him, and if done right he should sweep enough primaries in the North East to make him a viable candidate rather than do what he did last time of trying to sit Iowa and New Hampshire out and fail badly.

He wouldn't win enough delegates to take the nomination but the potential would be there to split the vote to such an extent that there is no primary winner and the nomination goes to the convention. All of a sudden then the nominee isn't about who the Tea Party wants or the primaries throw up, it is about who can viably take it to the President.


If I were Giuliani and were interested in running, that is how I would do it.
 
Team Brian GB said:
No I didn't miss it, and I am well aware of his issues getting through the Republican Primaries, but that doesn't mean that if he was the Republican nominee that Obama wouldn't be scared by him as he is one of the very few nationally renowned Republicans who could take independents and even moderate democrats from the President.
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I don't think Obama would be concerned about Giuliani at all. For one, Giuliani would not hold down the Republican base. Conservative Republicans don't care for him and as such would not turn out in sufficient numbers to help him carry battleground states like North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado etc. Obama would win about 100 electoral votes again.
 
What the Republicans need is someone who can simultaneously play both audiences, appearing to sound reasonable whilst talking right-wing nonsense.
 
I fear Perry... pure, unprincipled, but highly controlled and calculating, ambition.

MrMarcello said:
Any word on Bloomberg running independently?
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Surely the best opportunity in decades for a third-party candidate with a reputation for moderation and competence.

A shite economy and a President perceived as weak, with lukewarm approval ratings, Congress as unpopular as it's ever been.... up against a deeply unpopular Republican Party now narrowly predicted to lose the House, with a base increasingly perceived as mental by Independent voters.
 
Raoul said:
I don't think Obama would be concerned about Giuliani at all. For one, Giuliani would not hold down the Republican base. Conservative Republicans don't care for him and as such would not turn out in sufficient numbers to help him carry battleground states like North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado etc. Obama would win about 100 electoral votes again.
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He would not need the republican base as he would sweep up independents and moderate democrats. Do you think the President will hold onto Virginia and North Carolina considering how the US has been the last few years? Even if he was considered a big success that would be difficult.
 
Team Brian GB said:
He would not need the republican base as he would sweep up independents and moderate democrats. Do you think the President will hold onto Virginia and North Carolina considering how the US has been the last few years? Even if he was considered a big success that would be difficult.
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Republicans tend to not win general elections without strong base turnout. After all- its what makes them Republicans. Having the support of independents isn't going to offset losing the base, which is why people like Giuliani, Bloomberg, and a few others don't stand a snowballs chance in hell. First, they couldn't survive their own primaries - second, they would get massacred by Obama because the base would stay at home.
 
The idea that Obama could get anywhere close to the 365-173 victory in 2008 is ludicrous and unimaginable. The election always comes down to ten or so swing states, which Obama took comprehensively despite a few of them typically going red, plus Virginia and North Carolina.

This was after Obama became a political sensation, was atop a huge wave of support in the final weeks of the campaign, when the result was a foregone conclusion in the final days suppressing the conservative vote - I recall two days before the election a pollster on CNN putting the chance of a McCain victory at 5%. He is not going to have this again, he is not going to be the 'yes we can' candidate, lots of the razzmatazz around him will no longer be there.

A 2% swing in Florida and Ohio - two states with huge unemployment rates - would result in Republican victories. North Carolina was won by barely a quarter of 1 percent, a 3% swing in Virginia and Indiana send them the other way - these all being states which in recent times elect Republicans more often than not.

Obama penetrated as far as a Democrat can go in 2008, the election will be about how much he can hold onto.
 
Have to say I agree with TB on this

Don't rely on random polls though Brian, use 538. Yes it's got a (very mildly) liberal line but the polling analysis and stats are unparalleled. He called the last election perfectly except for Indiana which the Dems won by 1%.
 
The greatest challenge a Republican will have is permeating the western great lake states which a Republican typically needs to win the White House. This is complicated when you have a democrat incumbent from Illinois, who has a spillover effect in this part of the world, with Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa all comfortably won.

This is something that behind the scenes Michelle Bachmann's campaign staff will likely be advocating.
 
Team Brian GB said:
The idea that Obama could get anywhere close to the 365-173 victory in 2008 is ludicrous and unimaginable. The election always comes down to ten or so swing states, which Obama took comprehensively despite a few of them typically going red, plus Virginia and North Carolina.

This was after Obama became a political sensation, was atop a huge wave of support in the final weeks of the campaign, when the result was a foregone conclusion in the final days suppressing the conservative vote - I recall two days before the election a pollster on CNN putting the chance of a McCain victory at 5%. He is not going to have this again, he is not going to be the 'yes we can' candidate, lots of the razzmatazz around him will no longer be there.

A 2% swing in Florida and Ohio - two states with huge unemployment rates - would result in Republican victories. North Carolina was won by barely a quarter of 1 percent, a 3% swing in Virginia and Indiana send them the other way - these all being states which in recent times elect Republicans more often than not.

Obama penetrated as far as a Democrat can go in 2008, the election will be about how much he can hold onto.
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Well that's all a bit premature given that the election is still a relative eternity of 15 months away. Whether he wins as handily as he did in 08 is completely up to the economic state of the summer of 2012 and who his opponent is. At the end of the day, it still comes down to a handful of battleground states. All Obama has to do is hold on to one or two of Florida, Virginia, NC, Colorado, Ohio, or Indiana - and it will be next to impossible for him to lose. You shouldn't forget that he's a fantastic campaigner who will probably raise his polling numbers by 10-15 points when he hits the trail next year.
 
Team Brian GB said:
The greatest challenge a Republican will have is permeating the western great lake states which a Republican typically needs to win the White House. This is complicated when you have a democrat incumbent from Illinois, who has a spillover effect in this part of the world, with Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa all comfortably won.

This is something that behind the scenes Michelle Bachmann's campaign staff will likely be advocating.
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Obama would probably beat Bachmann in her home state.
 
Whatever the economic state is, uneployment will be much higher than it was in 2008, and he'll no doubt take a walloping on the national debt, credit rating and stimulus package - people close to him putting specifics on what that would do - unemployment not going beyond 8% - was a huge faux pas that will be often quoted. That is not before the nonsense surrounding healthcare is peddled.

I am not saying Obama will lose the election, or that I have an interest either way, I think it is extraordinary that many here believe it will be comfortable for him, looking at his apparent margin of victory in 2008 and his potential opponents of next year.
Obama I think would be best served by a minimalist campaign (on his part) which largely limits his campaign to elaborate speeches for which he is famed, before huge audiences. Drop the notion of a stump speech, make each speech unique and do them occasionally enough so they are all carried live and followed by the media to death. He should spend as much time at the White House as possible, let the Republicans campaign, but show that he is governing.
 
Team Brian GB said:
Whatever the economic state is, uneployment will be much higher than it was in 2008, and he'll no doubt take a walloping on the national debt, credit rating and stimulus package - people close to him putting specifics on what that would do - unemployment not going beyond 8% - was a huge faux pas that will be often quoted. That is not before the nonsense surrounding healthcare is peddled.

I am not saying Obama will lose the election, or that I have an interest either way, I think it is extraordinary that many here believe it will be comfortable for him, looking at his apparent margin of victory in 2008 and his potential opponents of next year.
Obama I think would be best served by a minimalist campaign (on his part) which largely limits his campaign to elaborate speeches for which he is famed, before huge audiences. Drop the notion of a stump speech, make each speech unique and do them occasionally enough so they are all carried live and followed by the media to death. He should spend as much time at the White House as possible, let the Republicans campaign, but show that he is governing.
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I don't think he will have an easy time of it in 2012. Although I do think that most who do, are basing it on a relatively poor Republican field. Their candidates are either too extreme (Bachmann) too generic (Romney) or too anonymous (Pawlenty, Huntsmann etc). Rick Perry has a decent chance of fairing well against Obama, but its still early days. My feeling is that for all the negatives you list, Republicans face a steep climb because Obama is a very good campaigner who can convince voters he is the right choice. The Republicans managed to keep Bush in office in a similar, unpopular context 7 years ago.
 
Absolutely, if the likes of Bachman or heaven forbid Palin were the nominee, the debates for the first time in years would make epic viewing.
 
Plechazunga said:
Obama's base looks unlikely to show up either, they think he's a sell-out.

Unless the GOP run a total loon, which they might. But they still won't campaign for him like they did in 08, I reckon.
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You are wrong Plech,

The base that are complaining about Obama are going to hold their collective nostrils and vote in huge numbers for President Obama.

Yes, Obama sold out, but the alternative to branching off and doing something third-party is as popular as Rick Perry speaking at the Iowa State Fair. ~ I heard a clip of the audio, it was hysterical, with people screaming 'BOULDER-DASH!!!' as Perry proposed that corporations are people.

The popular progressive groups are holding off to do a Tea Party move into the Democrat race, then hoping for a quality Progressive primary candidate for 2016. (Most popular ~ Liz Warren)

In short, it is widely accepted that Obama is untouchable.

The years of Republican rule under George Bush/Dick Cheney are still fresh in the minds of many. ~ So, don't count on many of the regular Democrats staying home for the next Presidential election.
 
ooeat0meoo said:
You are wrong Plech,

The base that are complaining about Obama are going to hold their collective nostrils and vote in huge numbers for President Obama.

Yes, Obama sold out, but the alternative to branching off and doing something third-party is as popular as Rick Perry speaking at the Iowa State Fair. ~ I heard a clip of the audio, it was hysterical, with people screaming 'BOULDER-DASH!!!' as Perry proposed that corporations are people.

The popular progressive groups are holding off to do a Tea Party move into the Democrat race, then hoping for a quality Progressive primary candidate for 2016. (Most popular ~ Liz Warren)

In short, it is widely accepted that Obama is untouchable.

The years of Republican rule under George Bush/Dick Cheney are still fresh in the minds of many. ~ So, don't count on many of the regular Democrats staying home for the next Presidential election.
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Never underestimate the stupidity of America.
 
Raoul said:
You shouldn't forget that he's a fantastic campaigner who will probably raise his polling numbers by 10-15 points when he hits the trail next year.
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:wenger:

ooeat0meoo said:
You are wrong Plech,

The base that are complaining about Obama are going to hold their collective nostrils and vote in huge numbers for President Obama.

Yes, Obama sold out, but the alternative to branching off and doing something third-party is as popular as Rick Perry speaking at the Iowa State Fair. ~ I heard a clip of the audio, it was hysterical, with people screaming 'BOULDER-DASH!!!' as Perry proposed that corporations are people.

The popular progressive groups are holding off to do a Tea Party move into the Democrat race, then hoping for a quality Progressive primary candidate for 2016. (Most popular ~ Liz Warren)

In short, it is widely accepted that Obama is untouchable.

The years of Republican rule under George Bush/Dick Cheney are still fresh in the minds of many. ~ So, don't count on many of the regular Democrats staying home for the next Presidential election.
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Yeah obviously he's not going to get ousted in a Primary.

They might hold their noses and vote for him but they won't drop everything and work for him like they did in 08.

He is rumoured to have amassed a war-chest of nigh on a billion dollars mind... what a coincidence that the Wall Street bankers got their bonuses.
 
Reports released in the United States on Sunday state that for the first time, Obama's job approval rating has fallen below 40% - it currently stands at 39% (with 54% against).
 
Red Dreams said:
welcome back CR.

wrong emphasis in a recession. reducing debt.

a solid jobs program is what is needed. put money in people's pocket and the economy grows.
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Thanks, changed jobs and am suuuuper busy lately.

I'm not saying reducing debt, I'm saying reduce the amount the rate we incur it. The whole budget crisis was a joke. I can't find it but the chart of what was "saved" over 10 years is hilarious. Bush and now Obama are spending us into oblivion.
 
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