US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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Raoul said:
Like McCain in 08, Romney's national numbers are likely to nosedive after the debates. Even so, if the election were held today, Obama would probably win the popular vote by 3 percent, and still win the electoral college by about 140. Barring any surprises, the likelyhood of a seismic reversal in the national polls between now and November is quite slim. Basically, everything comes down to tonight's debate - because if Romney blows this one, he will get progressively more desparate and make a mess of it in the final two - just as Al Gore did in 2000.
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Debates make very little difference to the race, and what little they do is probably decreasing as less and less people watch them (at least on TV... I suppose more see a few minutes on YouTube).

Also, Bush/Gore is an odd one to chose as Bush was widely regarded as having come across as a total Ihni binni dimi diniwiny anitaime in that first debate.
 
Plechazunga said:
Debates make very little difference to the race, and what little they do is probably decreasing as less and less people watch them (at least on TV... I suppose more see a few minutes on YouTube).

Also, Bush/Gore is an odd one to chose as Bush was widely regarded as having come across as a total Ihni binni dimi diniwiny anitaime in that first debate.
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Debates produce seminal moments that shift the perception of candidates because they're usually the only time the public sees both candidates together and can compare and contrast their arguments. In 2000, Bush did win each of the debates because Gore came out with a plastic etch-a-sketch persona in trying to appeal to specific demographics rather than just be himself. He did the same in the 2nd and 3rd debates, as famously mocked on Saturday Night Live at the time.

In 2008, Obama basically sealed the deal during the debates. He was slightly ahead going in and extended his lead with three commanding performances. So yeah, they do matter unless of course the race is already decided well before the debates such as Reagan 80 and 84.
 
Simon Adebesi said:
Im trying to recall a time when Bush didnt come across as a total Ihni binni dimi diniwiny anitaime...
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The 2000 debates. He brought his A game and he had Gore on the backfoot for much of all three debates. Of course it was in his own unique comedic Dubya style.
 
Raoul said:
The 2000 debates. He brought his A game and he had Gore on the backfoot for much of all three debates.
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Leave it to Al Gore to make Bush look MORE Presidential during the debates :wenger:

But honestly will not be watching the debates this year because there is ZERO chance of anything said or done there changing my voting plans or even learning anything new about either man.

Now I suppose should Obama take the stage with a small child and proceed to perform a human sacrifice that could change my voting plans. But hey that will make all the news if he does, so still no need to watch.
 
watch Mitty come out with some sound bite type zingers. that's probably his only hope is to do the old switcharoo on Obama's catchphrases.

and him to spout some bold faced lies that'll somehow have traction as they were well presented. :rolleyes:
 
The world are eagerly awaiting Mitt's zingers, which effectively negates any value they might otherwise have.
 
watching Joe Scumbag this morning only showed how desperate the republicans must be.. hilarious.

trotting Woodward and his book...what a douche he is btw.

Obama should be prepared enough.

I want to see how Romney walks back his 47%....
 
Raoul, I'd wager 90-95% of the population that will vote have already decided with the large majority simply toeing the party line they always vote for, so how much can a debate actually swing an election? I just can't see it being big enough to affect the final outcome.
 
JustAFan said:
Leave it to Al Gore to make Bush look MORE Presidential during the debates :wenger:

But honestly will not be watching the debates this year because there is ZERO chance of anything said or done there changing my voting plans or even learning anything new about either man.

Now I suppose should Obama take the stage with a small child and proceed to perform a human sacrifice that could change my voting plans. But hey that will make all the news if he does, so still no need to watch.
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Jeez your demanding of the people you vote for.:)
 
MrMarcello said:
Raoul, I'd wager 90-95% of the population that will vote have already decided with the large majority simply toeing the party line they always vote for, so how much can a debate actually swing an election? I just can't see it being big enough to affect the final outcome.
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It entirely depends on how good or bad the debate performances are. Basically, Romney has to come out of the debate as widely perceived to have won it outright, which is next to impossible against Obama.
 
Thanks Plech, Ubik, Wibble for the responses to my question. I think the guy is just a typical random thinker and does not have a point. His most recent response after a few others agreed on my points was, "I just thought it was funny that we are being compared to wild animals."

That just tells me he doesn't understand how in-depth my comment was.

Then this gem, "but I can't think of any lesbian animales, just males that manly do it for dominence and intimidation, but clearly I am touching a nerve and but hurt (not literally) someone."

Asinine. The guy is a moron looking at that response and grammar errors. Also, not exactly sure how he "but hurt" someone (should be butt hurt but I digress).
 
if Obama wins Fox will call it a draw. if it's a draw then it's a Romney win. if a close Romney win then it's an obliteration by Romney.

agreed that most have their mind made up, as I do.
I can't stand how bad for America the Repubs are - but that's the same view, just opposite, that the Repubs have so it's no surprise there's intransigence, on both sides.
 
people here are a little bit overconfident, I'm not, Obama isn't a great debater, his debates in 08's primairies were not good, nor were great his presidential debates. It depends on the softaware Willard will have uploaded on the hours before.
 
Raoul said:
Debates produce seminal moments that shift the perception of candidates because they're usually the only time the public sees both candidates together and can compare and contrast their arguments. In 2000, Bush did win each of the debates because Gore came out with a plastic etch-a-sketch persona in trying to appeal to specific demographics rather than just be himself. He did the same in the 2nd and 3rd debates, as famously mocked on Saturday Night Live at the time.
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The 2nd and 3rd were mocked, not the 1st, which he was generally agreed to have won.

In 2008, Obama basically sealed the deal during the debates. He was slightly ahead going in and extended his lead with three commanding performances. So yeah, they do matter unless of course the race is already decided well before the debates such as Reagan 80 and 84.
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Obama extended his lead because the economy crashed, and McCain did his retarded suspending his campaign thing and generally seemed not to have much of a clue about economics.

Read the link I gave. Political scientists actually study this and measure effects, and with a few exceptions TV debates have very little impact.
 
So you think the only thing that'll really be able to change the race is the economy, and the debates are a red herring?
 
Plechazunga said:
Read the link I gave. Political scientists actually study this and measure effects, and with a few exceptions TV debates have very little impact.
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I read an article by that geek, Nate Silver, several months ago. His observation is that there genuinely are only two bumps: VP selection and convention. Or, in other words, the impact of the debates are over-estimated.
 
Ubik said:
So you think the only thing that'll really be able to change the race is the economy, and the debates are a red herring?
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I really doubt the debates will have much of an effect, I'd say a vast majority already know who they're voting for and barring a massive feck up the debates won't change that.
 
Meh. Will be full of well rehearsed talking points and soundbites.

I'll still watch though because I have nothing/noone to do.
 
It might not matter, but I'm looking forward to it anyway. I think Romney will struggle tonight.
 
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Has anyone pointed out to the Romney campaign that the reason "zingers" work is because they are off the cuff, improvised replies? If everyone knows you have them up your sleeve, they won't have any effect except to give you a chance to make a campaign commercial of him saying something. Keep quiet about it. We all know Mitt can't improvise without blowing his foot off with a bazooka. Plus there's how great his joke delivery is...
 
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