US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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Obama is damned lucky his predecessor was a Muppet and his challenger is a Clown. His approval rating is abysmal, the economy is weak, Obamacare is an abomination, yet he will still walk the election.

BTW - I am in favor of public healthcare but the proposals are bound to fail miserably and lay to rest any chance of widespread public healthcare in my life time
 
I am no expert on US politics, or the specifics of Obamacare. But from my perspective it seemed like the shortcomings of the measure are the result of the compromises that made it possible. So the possibility of "widespread public healthcare in my life time" was always pretty limited, and doomed to be something of a Frankenstein piece of legislation, whatever form is ended up taking.

From my perspective it is a good thing that the principle has been established and the initial hurdle overcome. People are more likely to value it once they have it, and therefore it will be harder to take it away once it is entrenched. And once the principle of universal healthcare is accepted and loses its toxicity, it may be possible to improve the legislation.

As for Obama on the whole, it is unfortunate for him that he came into power at a time when the US and the world generally were going through so much shit. He will be blamed for the economy being weak, but the economy would be weak no matter who was president. He has not been the refreshing, uplifting, world-changing president he promised to be. But he has done OK in the circumstances and the shit he gets off so many people says more about American society generally than it does about him.
 
O'Reilly: "$250,000 [income] is not a lot of money."

He said that last night.

I thought the point was to acknowledge such hard earned income but to cite it as part of an aspirational economy/scoiety, not to spin it as something inadequate.


ETA: Riddled with typos the first time around.
 
Excal said:
But he mostly eats bacon, so he's not expecting to live too long.
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In the UK you'd be correct but the bacon over here sucks.........hmmmm I could kill a nice toasted bacon sarny with Warburtons bread and English back bacon. :drool:
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
O'Reilly: "$250,000 [income] is not a lot of money."

He said that last night.

I thought the point was to acknowledge such hard earned income but to cite it as part of an aspirationtal ecnomy/scoeity, not to spin it as something insignificant/inadequate.
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You have to love Fox News. One second they're saying $250k isn't much money and the next they're screaming about how overpaid teachers are. It's ridiculous.
 
$250,000 is a significant amount of money for one individual to earn. Heck even in terms of household income it would be in the top 1.5%. I would say that is a very generous threshold for the tax repeals. Even if they set it at $100,000 it would still be a well under 10% of earners.
 
Interestingly, Obamacare bans the use of Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) or any adjustment on "life years" as a measure to check if treatments are cost-effective.

It might help to insure the uninsured, but it's definitely not going bring healthcare costs down.
 
Jaz said:
It might help to insure the uninsured, but it's definitely not going bring healthcare costs down.
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None of it will reduce healthcare costs. Anything run by Federal and State Government has a huge potential to waste money. Then the ultimate providers are private insurance companies like Wellpoint and Wellcare. Not to mention the mainstream insurers have been hiking prices and blaming Obamacase.
 
mjs020294 said:
Obama is damned lucky his predecessor was a Muppet and his challenger is a Clown. His approval rating is abysmal, the economy is weak, Obamacare is an abomination, yet he will still walk the election.

BTW - I am in favor of public healthcare but the proposals are bound to fail miserably and lay to rest any chance of widespread public healthcare in my life time
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His approval rating is still much better than clown shoes was before his reelection bid. Also exactly how much can he do about about the deficit that the neo-cons ran up with two wars, tax cuts for the wealthy and the drug subscription program most of which is not paid for yet? Obama was on a hiding to nothing, the fact he got Bin Laden and passed the AHA might save him. Like I said before if it was any other western nation this election would be a forgone conclusion.
 
Ramshock said:
His approval rating is still much better than clown shoes was before his reelection bid. Also exactly how much can he do about about the deficit that the neo-cons ran up with two wars, tax cuts for the wealthy and the drug subscription program most of which is not paid for yet? Obama was on a hiding to nothing, the fact he got Bin Laden and passed the AHA might save him. Like I said before if it was any other western nation this election would be a forgone conclusion.
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the GOP would have a reasonable chance if they were not hostage to the lunatic right.

They are primarily a whites only party...not too clever when the largest growing demographic is Hispanic.

Obama will win easily enough. But it will take a couple of cycles to win the house. Dems will hold the Senate.
 
The only polling that matters is that in swing states. From what I've read, Obama's ads are killing Romney in places like Ohio and Florida.

When the dicks in Congress start going after the ACA you'll see more backlash against their 'feck the poor' message.
 
Red Dreams said:
They are primarily a whites only party...not too clever when the largest growing demographic is Hispanic.
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Demographics are definitely changing but it is not all gloom for the Republicans TBH. Age plays a large part in voting patens; the older people get the more likely they will vote GOP

Dem GOP
18-29 66 32
20-44 52 46
45-64 50 49
65+ 45 53

So an aging demographic helps the GOP significantly. Also the last election saw a ridiculous amount of racial voting by African Americans, and understandably so. It will be interesting to see if they continue to support Obama purely on racial grounds.
 
mjs020294 said:
Demographics are definitely changing but it is not all gloom for the Republicans TBH. Age plays a large part in voting patens; the older people get the more likely they will vote GOP

Dem GOP
18-29 66 32
20-44 52 46
45-64 50 49
65+ 45 53

So an aging demographic helps the GOP significantly. Also the last election saw a ridiculous amount of racial voting by African Americans, and understandably so. It will be interesting to see if they continue to support Obama purely on racial grounds.
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Man, that is some low-rent bullshit that crackers love to spout. You think all blacks are dumb and only vote for their own when it's clear as day that it's completely against the majority of black's interests to vote republican. Repubs want to take away any social programs that might help the black population.
 
Is it really as simple as saying the older people get the more likely they are to vote GOP, or is it perhaps more related to the fact that the people who are older today grew up with more conservative values? I've always had a problem with the whole "young = left wing, old = right wing" thing. People use it way too much for so little it actually says. Young people today are much more likely to be in favour of same-sex marriage, are less religious, etc. I doubt that is going to change as they get older.
 
niMic said:
Is it really as simple as saying the older people get the more likely they are to vote GOP, or is it perhaps more related to the fact that the people who are older today grew up with more conservative values? I've always had a problem with the whole "young = left wing, old = right wing" thing. People use it way too much for so little it actually says. Young people today are much more likely to be in favour of same-sex marriage, are less religious, etc. I doubt that is going to change as they get older.
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Voting trends have been pretty much consistent for decades, on both sides of the pond BTW. People are more likely to be left of center when they are young, and slowly move to the right as they age (and pay more tax).


Grinner said:
Man, that is some low-rent bullshit that crackers love to spout. You think all blacks are dumb and only vote for their own when it's clear as day that it's completely against the majority of black's interests to vote republican. Repubs want to take away any social programs that might help the black population.
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The statistics don't lie. Obama took an unprecedented percentage of the AA vote. Maybe that was balanced out by the number of white folks that switched to GOP, who knows.
 
Well yes, because the western world has been gradually getting more and more progressive. That's my point. I'm just not convinced that it's as simple as saying they move right as they grow older. Perhaps the world moves left, and they end up further on the right. That could effectively be the same thing as long as that continues, but there's no guarantee that the world is going to keep growing more "progressive".

I'm not disputing that there's some correlation, I'm just not convinced it's very big.
 
mjs020294 said:
Demographics are definitely changing but it is not all gloom for the Republicans TBH. Age plays a large part in voting patens; the older people get the more likely they will vote GOP

Dem GOP
18-29 66 32
20-44 52 46
45-64 50 49
65+ 45 53

So an aging demographic helps the GOP significantly. Also the last election saw a ridiculous amount of racial voting by African Americans, and understandably so. It will be interesting to see if they continue to support Obama purely on racial grounds.
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Man your time in natures waiting room has changed you im thinking, you are Irish correct? I am surprised you seem right leaning.

Anyway poor is poor no matter what colour you are, you can say the same about the poor whites in the southern states who repeatedly vote white and rich. What has the GOP done for them except throw bits of kevlar at them and send them off to the middle east to die? In keeping with that why then would the majority of black people vote for rich old white men? You should only vote GOP if you are wealthy IMO.
 
Ramshock said:
Man your time in natures waiting room has changed you im thinking, you are Irish correct? I am surprised you seem right leaning.

Anyway poor is poor no matter what colour you are, you can say the same about the poor whites in the southern states who repeatedly vote white and rich. What has the GOP done for them except throw bits of kevlar at them and send them off to the middle east to die? In keeping with that why then would the majority of black people vote for rich old white men? You should only vote GOP if you are wealthy.
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I don't get offended at posts, but that one made me seethe.
 
Ramshock said:
Man your time in natures waiting room has changed you im sur, you are Irish correct? I am surprised you seem right leaning.

Anyway poor is poor no matter what colour you are, you can say the same about the poor whites in the southern states who repeatedly vote white and rich. What has the GOP done for them except throw bits of kevlar at them and send them off to the middle east to die? In keeping with that why then would the majority of black people vote for rich old white men? You should only vote GOP if you are wealthy.
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WTF are your rambling on about scooter. I am not expressing an opinion, just posting statistics.

BTW – I will be voting for Obama this time around. Didn’t have a vote in 2008 but would have voted for him then as well: partly because he was black BTW.
 
mjs020294 said:
WTF are your rambling on about scooter. I am not expressing an opinion, just posting statistics.

BTW – I will be voting for Obama this time around. Didn’t have a vote in 2008 but would have voted for him then as well: partly because he was black BTW.
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Alright fair enough I must have taken you up wrong, still the principles remain the same, people should vote for their economic futures first.
 
Grinner said:
No you didn't.

The change in black voters from 2004 to 2008 was up by 4.7% but in that same period nearly 2 million blacks were added to the roll.
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Not excatly a convincing argument TBH.

Facts remains the percentage of AA voting GOP increased between 2000 and 2004, yet made a significant reverse in 2008.

This is a rather moot debate because many AA are pretty open about their reasons for voting for Obama. I can hardly blame them either, it was a very historic election. There is absolutely nothing up with voting with your heart occasionally.

If a woman candidate was available I fully expect a few women to vote for them regardless of their political allegiances. The historical ramifications and emotions surrounding Obama’s election had a profound effect on me. And I know for a fact it meant a hell of a lot more to some of my older AA friends.
 
mjs020294 said:
Demographics are definitely changing but it is not all gloom for the Republicans TBH. Age plays a large part in voting patens; the older people get the more likely they will vote GOP

Dem GOP
18-29 66 32
20-44 52 46
45-64 50 49
65+ 45 53

So an aging demographic helps the GOP significantly. Also the last election saw a ridiculous amount of racial voting by African Americans, and understandably so. It will be interesting to see if they continue to support Obama purely on racial grounds.
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That is the most hilariously backwards interpretation of the age gap I've yet to see. People don't hit a certain age and magically turn Republican. People who are older NOW are more likely to be Republican. The age gap has been widening, but also rising, as you see the 45-65 age group is 50/50.

What's actually going to be happening is that the age group that is predominantly Republican is going to die, while a disproportionate numbers of the new voters replacing them will be Democrats.
 
Grinner said:
Man, that is some low-rent bullshit that crackers love to spout. You think all blacks are dumb and only vote for their own when it's clear as day that it's completely against the majority of black's interests to vote republican. Repubs want to take away any social programs that might help the black population.
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Tbf mjs isn't the only one. This sort of talk goes on in the media all the time. For example they've been going on for months and months about how Romney should pick Rubio for veep to swing the Latino vote.

Ofcourse the failure of Palin to rouse the women vote shows how flawed this line of thinking can be.
 
mjs020294 said:
Not excatly a convincing argument TBH.

Facts remains the percentage of AA voting GOP increased between 2000 and 2004, yet made a significant reverse in 2008.

This is a rather moot debate because many AA are pretty open about their reasons for voting for Obama. I can hardly blame them either, it was a very historic election. There is absolutely nothing up with voting with your heart occasionally.

If a woman candidate was available I fully expect a few women to vote for them regardless of their political allegiances. The historical ramifications and emotions surrounding Obama’s election had a profound effect on me. And I know for a fact it meant a hell of a lot more to some of my older AA friends.
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I suppose you've asked all 26 million of them too.
 
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mjs020294 said:
Demographics are definitely changing but it is not all gloom for the Republicans TBH. Age plays a large part in voting patens; the older people get the more likely they will vote GOP

Dem GOP
18-29 66 32
20-44 52 46
45-64 50 49
65+ 45 53

So an aging demographic helps the GOP significantly. Also the last election saw a ridiculous amount of racial voting by African Americans, and understandably so. It will be interesting to see if they continue to support Obama purely on racial grounds.
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I was addressing race. The white race will be a minority in about 15 years. The GOP is a white peoples party no matter how many tokens they put up. The GOP as long as they push policies such as only helping the top 1% will continue to have people moving away from them. I do not see the GOP winning the Presidency in any near future. The only way is for them to move to the middle and abandon their ridiculous policies.

btw these Voter suppression laws (call it what it is) only tells minorities they have no place in the Republican party.
 
Excal said:
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Out of interest, as I know absolutely nothing about this issue, for what reasons do people not have 'valid photo IDs' or whatever it is the proposed laws ask for? And why is there a difference between ethnic groups?
 
I would guess it's related to income, with more poverty among minorities they're less likely to have access to a car or want to pay to renew a license that expires, or to need it to fly, or to have a passport.
 
gooDevil said:
I would guess it's related to income, with more poverty among minorities they're less likely to have access to a car or want to pay to renew a license that expires, or to need it to fly, or to have a passport.
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This. Also, in rural areas, you're more likely to find people who scratch livings in ways such as subsistence farming, or doing odd jobs. With less contact with the larger economy, identification just isn't necessary.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
Out of interest, as I know absolutely nothing about this issue, for what reasons do people not have 'valid photo IDs' or whatever it is the proposed laws ask for? And why is there a difference between ethnic groups?
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The main form of photo id is a driver's license. Many poor people take the bus or subway or walk to work. The alternative like here in Minnesota is you can a State resident ID. But this is not required. But to get these photo IDs you would need to prove you have a birth certificate or American passport.

If you were registered to vote you would have had to prove residence where you live. Many old people don't even have birth certificates.

And the big fact is these laws are being enacted to solve a problem that does not exist. There is negligible eveidence of voter fraud. That is the key.

Also these laws violate Voting Rights Act of 1965 and the Voter Registration law of 1999. These are federal laws and we are facing Federal elections.
 
Which is of course the point. "Voter fraud" is a cover. The entire purpose of these laws is to keep a portion of the population which votes mostly Democratic from voting, because "you don't deserve to vote if you're poor and disagree with me" is the mindset of today's Republican party.
 
mjs020294 said:
Not excatly a convincing argument TBH.

Facts remains the percentage of AA voting GOP increased between 2000 and 2004, yet made a significant reverse in 2008.

This is a rather moot debate because many AA are pretty open about their reasons for voting for Obama. I can hardly blame them either, it was a very historic election. There is absolutely nothing up with voting with your heart occasionally.

If a woman candidate was available I fully expect a few women to vote for them regardless of their political allegiances. The historical ramifications and emotions surrounding Obama’s election had a profound effect on me. And I know for a fact it meant a hell of a lot more to some of my older AA friends.
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I agree that it's expected, and understandable, that many African-Americans would be keen to see a black President, especially given the history.

But the stats don't really support your claim that there was 'a ridiculous amount of racial voting'. The black Democratic vote went up 7% compared to 04. So did the Catholic vote. Atheists went up 8%. Latinos 14%. The 'over $200K a year' vote went up a full 17%.

It would be very hard to tease apart the first black President aspect from the 8 years of Bush, the charismatic populist candidate as opposed to the dull patrician Kerry, etc. No doubt for many black voters there was a mixture of reasons. Still, if the Democrat had been Hillary, and the Republican had been black, I'm pretty sure most African-Americans would have voted for Hillary.
 
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