this should be good....both will be very VERY well funded. I wonder what the final bill will be when Romney and Obama finish with their campaigns in November
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US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
- Thread starter Team Brian GB
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Obama will win this by about 100 electoral votes.
It was always going to be Romney though wasn't it?
The nuts made it interesting but none of them were seriously going to beat Mitt. Pity it hasn't gone on longer though as watching them pick at each other must have been music to Obama's ears. Romney v Obama could prove more interesting than people think though, worryingly.
Hope Santorum dropping out hasn't got anything to do with his daughter.
The nuts made it interesting but none of them were seriously going to beat Mitt. Pity it hasn't gone on longer though as watching them pick at each other must have been music to Obama's ears. Romney v Obama could prove more interesting than people think though, worryingly.
Hope Santorum dropping out hasn't got anything to do with his daughter.
Santorum out which can only be good. What a complete loon. The worst statement he's made has not been about gays or what have you, but his wild claims about euthanisia in the Netherlands 
Hope so. Would love to see him come back in with what looks like a mandate. Would be a nice slap back at the haters.
House will remain in GOP hands with reduced majority but Democrats will retain the Senate.
give it 2 months and I reckon the race will really start to tighten up in the key states.
agree. just look at the money that's being spent already.
A preview of whats coming this summer.
He's so fecked.
It'll be glorious.
It'll be glorious.
How? We'll know far more in a month when the dynamics of Mitt Romney being the presumptive republican nominee works its way through the media, campaigning, perception and polling.
To be just inside single digits behind Obama in the latest polls I have seen are encouraging for him, especially as such polls would include republican supporters of Santorum, Gingrich and Paul who wouldn't voice their support for Romney yet, in the same way in the first polls in 2008 when Obama was the presumptive Democrat many Clinton supports remained lukewarm for the timebeing.
The polls now are slanted towards Romney because he's been campaigning for the past 6 months, loads of debates and campaign events etc. Once Obama starts campaigning, the numbers will begin to look more favorable towards him.
You can't honestly believe Romney has a real chance against Obama?
The Gingrish/Santorum supporters probably won't be as inclined to vote with the 'Massachusetts moderate' at the helm of the party, whereas some of Paul's more progressive support base might even opt for Obama over Romney (assuming Paul doesn't run as an Indie)
It'll probably be closer than most people would imagine it but its hard to see anything besides a relative comfortable Obama victory.
It'll probably be closer than most people would imagine it but its hard to see anything besides a relative comfortable Obama victory.
They voted for Bush twice.
Romney is going to struggle to hold down the south as Bush did and McCain didn't. If Obama wins states like North Carolina again then the results may be similar to 2008. Probably a 100 electoral vote Obama win.
That's true. Over Kerry, I can almost understand. That man had the charisma of a potato. Gore would have made a much better President, though.
Well Newt Gingrich has gone and done it now 
Really Newt...Fox News is biased?
Really Newt...Fox News is biased?
I do think Obama will win but to suggest it isn't even close as many here seemingly are is a very naive position. As I said earlier there is a perception gap at present with many republicans not yet rallying around and many people nationally recognising him as the presumptive nominee - basically there is a very big difference between a poll of a hypothetical match-up and a poll of an actual match up and we won't know for a few weeks yet how things will balance out.
I think Raoul was right in saying that Romney has been campaigning for six months and Obama hasn't at all yet but I am not sure that is such a tremendous deal as of yet. Firstly you go back to the hypotheticals - there is a very big difference in public perception and attention between someone who is running for the republican nomination and someone who having gained it is running for the presidency. The other reason is one I have made before, the card up his sleeve from 2008 will not be effective, an incumbent cannot do the whole 'we need change, yes we can' play and most certainly cannot whip up the euphoria that followed him around four years ago. He cannot campaign in that way again as people will see him as aloof and out of touch and as such will have to try something else.
The simple fact of the matter is Obama's approval rating is a lowly 48% - there is no such thing as a smooth re-election campaign for an incumbent when your total support of your job performance cannot win you a second term. The latest polls I see put the gap at 8% - all it takes is a week of minor but consecutive missteps for the president and there will be a 2% swing to Romney - putting the race at 4% on the fringes of a margin-of-error statistical tie.
I completely understand them in 2000, Gore was coming off the back of a vice presidency whereas Bush was a second term Governor of Texas where he was astonishingly popular and was perceived to have done a very good job indeed.
In having that Bush had the best line on the CV of any republican or democratic nominee in decades.
Approval ratings and head to head polling isn't as important as electoral votes. California, Illinois, and New York are in the bag for Obama as they normally are for the Democrats. The difference this time is that Romney will struggle to dominate the south like once did. His mormon, flip-flopping northerner who once Governed Massachusetts act won't fly in the deep south and the conservatives that stay home in November will give Obama an opening. Just look at how Romney struggled against rubbish candidates like Santorum and Gingrich in the southern states. The only thing that matters are electoral votes and Romney will be lucky to get within 100 electoral votes of Obama in November.
Always feel sorry for John Kerry when he is mentioned. Rove did a hatchet job on his military service, which as much as it disgusts me to say was a brilliant tactic, considering Bush was a draft dodger.
Just a couple.
All good points but there is a vast difference between Romney going against other republicans and going against whatever Obama will be painted as in the south. Obama in 2008 penetrated the electoral college as far as a democrat could possibly go in this era and there is inevitably going to be a swing back in the opposite direction.
I think this is going to more akin to 2004 than 2008.
With Romney being the Republican candidate, I don't think the Republican base voter turnout itself is going to be strong at all for Obama to worry about, regardless of how he is painted in the south.
It won't matter if its Obama he's going against in the south if Conservative Republicans don't come out and vote. All indications are he won't have the type of support Bush had in the south, so it won't be like 2004, nor 2008 for that matter. He will probably fare worse in the south than any other Republican candidate since.....well since anyone before my time. Obama can win Florida and North Carolina. Romney may win Virginia this time.
That whole affair was sickening. The adds absolutely nauseating.
the other huge factors are. Obama is a charismatic candidate.
Romney is one of the worst candidates the Republicans could have selected in that department. He is wooden, inarticulate and downright boring.
In the end people vote for a guy they like. Romney's likeability is upside down.
Edit: Gore and Kerry were similarly boring candidates.
There's a lot to what you've said about people leaning toward likeability of a candidate. Obama does have charisma and certainly more than anything the repubs have offered up. But to say he was the worst is completely wrong. Gingrich may not have been wooden but he was pompous and arrogant to the extreme. Paul was looney. And Santorum was wooden, stiff and seemed forced. Of the group the repubs put forward Romney was the most charismatic. But can he overcome the rich out of touch label? Probably not.
Most charismatic? Surely not. Santorum was evil and crazy, but he had a certain amount of charisma. Paul too, even though he's obviously crazy as well. You're right about Gingrich though, he can't help coming across as a real arrogant twat.
Romney is the most 'moderate' candidate the GOP put out. We must discount Paul tbf. Newt and Santorum did appeal to the conservatives in the GOP. tbh if the pubahs had not dried up their funding, Santorum especially would have won. It was simply money politics winning out.
Not an unreasonable position for the party to take as only a 'moderate' has a chance in the GE. But being a 'moderate' does not equal charisma. Even McCain was likeable and tbh I would have voted for him in 2000 as he really was someone who had the interest of the average American at heart...even if he was a very rich guy.
In this cycle Romney has had to leap to the right because of his rivals but without being believable.
But you have identified the huge problem Romney has. Rightly or wrongly he comes across as a 'rich out of touch' guy.
I have no doubt that Obama will win, not because he has done everything right. But he and his party are 'mainstream'. That really is the problem with the GOP. They need to make a conscious decision to appeal to the average guy and offer. Move to the middle. Initially that will cause them to lose their 'base' but eventually they will get a new base.
They are currently locked in with a demographic that is fast shrinking compared to the overall make of the country. That is why they are resorting to voter suppression laws. The last acts of desperation.
For the good of the whole country, I hope we eventually have two parties in the middle having an 'honest' debate for what is good for the average Joe.
Like there's just 2 points of view for 330 million people!
The problem with American politics in a nutshell.
It makes whoever wins the middle ( American middle = far right) win.
And that is a big problem, I'd agree with. We do need more opinions and you see the problem with this in our system. Democrats move left during the primary, center during the general election and left again in a second term. The same for repubs but to the right.
American middle is just right of center, not far right. On social issues the country is moving left. Fiscal issues are still in flux, depending on the party in power and for how long.
IMO
I hope you are right, mate, but it sure doesn't seem that way from here.
I AM in Quebec which is far far to the left of most of North America but middle of the road for Europe.
Who's middle are we talking? I think America's left is actually center in most countries. I am in the 10% that are the farthest left here; but in the UK I am right of center.
Eh? Middle relative to here. Based on other posts I've seen of yours you are not anywhere near the far left. Your stance owning a gun alone would rule that out.
EDIT: Maybe after rereading your post I see what you're but I'm still not sure I'd agree.
Gun ownership is not directly linked to your political compass TBH. I have been a recreational shooter for 30+ years, two decades of that was in the UK. If the gun laws changed tomorrow I wouldn't be too bothered.
Take an issue like healthcare, here is what I would do: Starting 2013 all current healthcare monies (Medicare, medicaid, insurance premiums, company contributions) would be placed in one fund at the 2012 levels. One super administrator would oversee payments, maybe merge a couple of the big players. two federal boards, one medical one pharmaceutical, to set the charges for all drugs and procedures. then everyone gets free healthcare through a single payer system.
That would make me close to a communist in most peoples eyes.
Free? No, paid by others for those who can't pay and expensive for those who can. But anyway, thanks for the clarification. Maybe you're in the far left 1%. 1%er....
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