Universal Basic Income

That's really not true at all. In pretty much any country you choose welfare and pensions will be in the top 2 or 3 items of budgetary spending.
Good. What else are they going to spend money on?
I'm inclined to say theres enough for everyones need but not their greed, gandhi style. The cost of housing would be a lot cheaper if the only purpose of the industry was to house people. Saying its too expensive to feed people while spending billions and trillions on military equipment and tax breaks for corporations just isn't a reasonable position imo.
 
Good. What else are they going to spend money on?
I'm inclined to say theres enough for everyones need but not their greed, gandhi style. The cost of housing would be a lot cheaper if the only purpose of the industry was to house people. Saying its too expensive to feed people while spending billions and trillions on military equipment and tax breaks for corporations just isn't a reasonable position imo.

It's not too expensive to house or feed people, but the greed angle applies to all people. Nobody is content with 'just' food and housing and governments inevitably pay for a lot more than just that. It's a balancing act and its going to swing far in the wrong direction for a lot of countries over the next few months.
 
It's not too expensive to house or feed people, but the greed angle applies to all people. Nobody is content with 'just' food and housing and governments inevitably pay for a lot more than just that. It's a balancing act and its going to swing far in the wrong direction for a lot of countries over the next few months.
True and fair. I think most economic and political systems are pretty broken so fitting things like this into them isn't something that interests me much, I fall back to 'feck the system' pretty fast when it gets in the way tbh.
I'm more inclined to basic principles like the first priority of government should be food and housing. I understand theres other stuff like public health and education and security which is important too but im inclined to say providing food and housing are almost foundational to providing them things.
You say people need more than that to be content but i'm not sure its the governments role to provide them other things. I suppose they have a role in providing jobs which are important too. Personally i think them 2 things go a long, long way towards being content. Those that aren't content after acquiring some pretty basic stuff like that, probably never will be to some extent.
 
1. Lower income produces bad outcomes that impact health but are not necessarily to do with healthcare. Poor diet, amount of rest, stress, lack of adequate nutrition, wasting away due to the social stigma and less activity caused by lack of work, etc.

Of course.
2. Again, as I said, 3 of the top 5 life expectancy countries have socialised healthcare.

Of course. The vast majority of Western societies have socialised healthcare so it's no surprise 3 of the top 5 are socialised. In fact I would say it's somewhat extraordinary that 2 of the top 5 aren't socialised given the numbers (I also believe one or two of the three non-private are hybrid systems, rather than fully socialised).
3. Cuba, a dirt poor country has the same life expectancy as the US, with privatised care and GOAT spending.

As has been stated above healthcare isn't the only metric for life expectancy. I wonder for example how many years gun deaths take of the US figures, let alone life choices (obesity for example).
4. The UK has private care. You are free to pay to get healthcare. Apart from factors mentioned in (1), this might also contribute to income-mediated lifespans.

The UK has private healthcare, but it's very restricted due to the NHS. If I need emergency surgery I'll be taken to a (much poorer) NHS hospital irrespective of my private health cover.
Also, you're saying disparities already happen. Do you support spreading that disparity?

I'm saying that allowing people to have better healthcare, whilst not harming the current base level is only a positive. Is it better to have a society full of poor people, or a society with some poor people but where the majority are not poor? As I stated previously I'm not advocating for a perfect system as this doesn't and won't ever exist, I'm merely arguing for a better one.
So, to summarise:
UK spends 250% less per capita, and 16% less as %GDP on healthcare than Switzerland and produces marginally worse healthcare outcomes. Other countries with public systems produce better outcomes comparable to Swtizerland's, while spending *less* than the UK. Your measurement of healthcare efficacy is based on the single stat of life expectancy with no regard for other causes. Your solution is not to increase funding to even median European levels, like France or Germany, but to switch to an overall more expensive system which will ration care based on income rather than medical triage.

I didn't mean to use life expectancy as a single metric, as intimated in this post. Apologies if it came across this way.

There are examples of very cheap private systems that are very effective, such as Singapore who I believe spend around half what the UK does per person and who have the best overall outcomes on the planet. There are examples of expensive private systems that are effective, such as Switzerland who spend around twice the UK, there are also hybrid private and social systems; some that are cheaper and more effective than the UK such as Japan, some more expensive and more effective hybrid systems like Luxembourg. There are also systems like the US that cost significantly more than the UK and have much better outcomes in some senses (R&D, cancer outcomes, stroke outcomes, free hospital beds per 1000 people) but whose population receive less "bang for their buck". There are also social systems that are very expensive but also effective like Germany and Norway.

I suppose ideologically it depends whether you inherently believe that the only way to have an efficient system long term (in any sphere, not just healthcare) is with incentives. My view is any system that provides incentives combined with consumer choice will be more efficient long term because the systemically poor organisations will fail and the great organisations will expand (as well as managers being incentivised for success, rather than management being incentivised to offer a poor service). My view is with socialised healthcare systemically poor organisations will merely be given progressively greater budgets in which to offer an average level of care. My view is that health spend in the UK as a % of GDP will need to increase by at least 2% every generation in order to maintain the current system (e.g. spend in 1950 was 2%, spend in 1980 was 4%, spend in 2010 was 6% and 10 years later we're already over 7%*).

That means the budget of other departments has to dwindle to accommodate this budget. For example 1950 - 2010 military budget reduced by nearly two-thirds, education budget has reduced by 5% and the total budget of all other spending (excl welfare/pensions) has reduced by a third. If spend on health and welfare (inc pensions) follows the trend of 1950 - 2010 from 2010 - 2070 then all taxes will be consumed solely by education, health and welfare. We won't be able to fund the police, military, judiciary, transport system, local councils, social care, fire service, housing, agriculture, industry... That's before even considering the interest on the mountain of debt we'll have accrued by then.

However if we take away the ideological part of the argument and assume identical outcomes social vs private per £ spent and also assume that over the next 50 years spend to GDP won't consume almost every other departmental budget then it comes down to one point and that's the liberty of the populace. Should the population have the ability to choose their own healthcare to suit their own individual desires or should someone else have the power to force them into spending their money in areas they deem less of a priority; forcing some people who value healthcare to a greater extent to have worse healthcare for less cost or some people who value healthcare to a lesser extent to have better healthcare for a greater cost. At the moment I want to spend significantly more on healthcare to achieve a much better service than the NHS provides, however I'm prevented from doing so (I already have private healthcare but again that's limited in the UK).

*this excludes out of pocket, enterprise financed, voluntary sector and private health contributions which add another 2% to health to GDP spend; all of which are increasing year on year as a % of GDP.

Sorry didn't mean for the post to be this long and in truth in hindsight it's gotten off topic. We should probably leave the discussion here, but note I do follow your posts in this thread and several others and do find your perspective and contribution very interesting (albeit that I almost always disagree!)
 
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Where does it end? Well for me personally, I would be prepared to go so far as to ensure people can afford food.

Some people can't at the moment, as I say I'm looking for a better system not a perfect one and I believe a UBI system would reduce (not eradicate) the inability to afford food.
Yeah the unemployed, poor and disabled would all be forced to move up north and the well off can stay in the South. Delightful idea.

The disabled would receive additional support (that's why I guessed at 80% of the welfare budget, rather than 100%).
Per adult? You wouldn't include kids? How on earth does a single parent raise a child on £10K?

The other option is to split the amount per family. The £500b budget I stated divided by the 19.2 million UK families would mean £26k per family if that's a better way of doing it? I wouldn't want to incentivise procreation though given the current climate crises which is largely due to over-population of the planet.
I'm a CEO of a homeless charity, and no it would not solve homelessness overnight, that's just rubbish. It would in fact slash the amount of support homeless people can get through existing support systems.

If not solve the crises it would certainly be an improvement on the current system. Also looking at people who're currently not homelessness, but through something outside of their control such as losing their jobs because of COVID-19; surely you'd cede that UBI would provide a safety net for them (even if they did have to temporarily move a few dozen miles North).
There would be some people who would benefit for sure. Just not the people at the bottom.

I disagree, the people at the bottom would benefit the most as they'd actually have some level of financial freedom for the first time. Rather than be stuck in a dead-end cycle of barely surviving on food banks in London, they'd have the opportunity and liquidity on the aforementioned £26k per annum to move to a less expensive area, choose their own house rather than have it chosen for them and ultimately live a much more prosperous and comfortable life. The area's that they migrated to would also see the benefit of more people with more money to spend.
You obviously don't know the benefits system very well. It would be a significant reduction for many people. The system is complex, but as an example, a single adult with no other income can get up to £13,400 outside London. A single parent living in London can get £23,000.

As you say the system is complicated but often that means the most vulnerable don't end up receiving the kind of payments you suggest. Many people (including the homeless) often end up receiving nothing, very little or a hugely delayed payment that takes them to the brink simply because of the bureaucratic processes involved in claiming benefits. Amending the system to £26k per family as stated previously would also provide a greater net. It's also worth noting that the UBI of the father would be taken into account when calculating his child support (so these payments to the mother would increase also).

Obviously I don't have every answer and it would need to be looked at by teams of experts to ensure the system provided the right balance of fairness; however I can only see it being an improvement on the current (mediocre at best and incredibly expensive to run) system.

Again though I'm happy to agree to disagree.
 
:) I tried green tea but couldn't keep it up. I tried a few fruit teas and you can feel the acid dissolving your tooth enamel at speed. I tried decaff tea, it's tasteless and doing without proper tea didn't help me sleep any better, so back to PG tips it was. One pint, every hour.

Good man.
 
Some people can't at the moment, as I say I'm looking for a better system not a perfect one and I believe a UBI system would reduce (not eradicate) the inability to afford food.

How would giving the poorest people less money let them afford more?

The other option is to split the amount per family. The £500b budget I stated divided by the 19.2 million UK families would mean £26k per family if that's a better way of doing it? I wouldn't want to incentivise procreation though given the current climate crises which is largely due to over-population of the planet.

Right. So a two children family would double their money if they separated and took a child each? Incentivising family separations is about as bad an idea as it gets.

Anyway you've forgotten about single people so your numbers are wrong.

If not solve the crises it would certainly be an improvement on the current system. Also looking at people who're currently not homelessness, but through something outside of their control such as losing their jobs because of COVID-19; surely you'd cede that UBI would provide a safety net for them (even if they did have to temporarily move a few dozen miles North).

People need a security net, I totally agree. What you're proposing is a reduction in the existing safety net though (and its not amazing now). This isn't a matter of opinion, the calculations are simple.

At the moment an unemployed adult who rented a flat would be entitled to Universal Credit and Housing Benefit (or the housing element). Someone living in Birkenhead, one of the areas in the country with the lowest house prices, would be given £8291. Someone living somewhere like Stevenage would get about £11,881 combined. Someone living in Brixton would get £17,532.

Your figure of £10K includes a mandatory healthcare charge valued about £3K in current spending. That means the 'take home' figure, as it were, is in fact about £7K. Even someone living in the cheapest part of the country would be worse off by about £1000 per year. Other people in the country would lose between a third and half of their income.

The long and short of it is that while simplicity and speed matter in a financial support system, the amount you give is 95% of what matters. Reduce that and no other advantages make up for it.

As you say the system is complicated but often that means the most vulnerable don't end up receiving the kind of payments you suggest. Many people (including the homeless) often end up receiving nothing, very little or a hugely delayed payment that takes them to the brink simply because of the bureaucratic processes involved in claiming benefits. Amending the system to £26k per family as stated previously would also provide a greater net. It's also worth noting that the UBI of the father would be taken into account when calculating his child support (so these payments to the mother would increase also).

As mentioned above, that £26K figure is wrong and most homeless people are single anyway so the comparison is also meaningless.

Besides, a homeless hostel or women's refuge charges about £200 to £300 per week which is paid in Housing Benefit, except for London where its far more. Add in Universal Credit and the amount of benefits paid to someone coming off the streets equates to about £20K+ per year. Unless your single person rate equates to that kind of level, homeless people will be worse off under your system.
 
My wife is a care worker on a zero hour contract but usually works 45hours+ and cares for the elderly and provides palliative care for the dieing. She has had to stop working cos she has COPD and was told today by citizens advice to apply for universal credit when she has had her final payslip and she will get about £75 a week.
Probably pay more tax when this is all finally over to pay back money borrowed to pay everyone else now.
 
I read the government's summary report, there are no surprises in there.

Of course if somebody gives you 500 Euros each month for nothing you are going to be happier, but it made no identifiable difference to the employment levels and if it's not going to do that then it has no future.
 
I read the government's summary report, there are no surprises in there.

Of course if somebody gives you 500 Euros each month for nothing you are going to be happier, but it made no identifiable difference to the employment levels and if it's not going to do that then it has no future.

This. If someone gives me 500 bucks a month for nothing, I will also feel more content with things. Not exactly a shocker.
 
I’m still ambivalent towards UBI as a concept, but the results are a good counter to the myth that “free stuff” will make people lazy and disincentivise work
Never believed that to be the case anyway.
 
I read the government's summary report, there are no surprises in there.

Of course if somebody gives you 500 Euros each month for nothing you are going to be happier, but it made no identifiable difference to the employment levels and if it's not going to do that then it has no future.

It was just slightly less stressful form of unemployment benefit and wasn't a UBI.
 
South Korea’s Universal Basic Income Experiment to Boost the Economy | WSJ

 
It's inevitable.
In Canada, too, it gets mentioned more and more. Except if it really goes wrong somewhere else or the Conservatives become dominant (they generally oppose it over here), we're likely to get some variant of it introduced or get a big-scale test over here.

The conservative opposition is funny actually. I don't know if it's real opposition or if they figure it's an easy win, since it doesn't intuitively sit well with their base. In any case, one of the first and biggest ubi advocates in Canada is actually a conservative senator, who argues that ubi will simplify government, since Canada wouldn't need its enormous patchwork of benefits etc. anymore. But that idea doesn't really seem to get traction; the discussion is more along predictable lines of helping the vulnerable vs. propping up the lazy.
 
This is a subject that I know absolutely nothing about.

What is the aim here? Giving every citizen irrespective of wealth/salary a set amount of money on top of what they earn?

Will this not just devalue the currency and increase inflation?
 
This is a subject that I know absolutely nothing about.

What is the aim here? Giving every citizen irrespective of wealth/salary a set amount of money on top of what they earn?

Will this not just devalue the currency and increase inflation?
My understanding is that no new money would be printed, that it is a redistribution of existing money.
 
How does that work? By who and whose wealth is it drawn from? Plus I assumed that everyone got it irrespective of existing wealth or earnings?
The government would pay out the UBI and yes, it would need to get its money from somewhere. There wouldn't necessarily be a lot of new money in it though; it depends on how it's done.

The idea of UBI is to ensure that everyone can have at least a certain level of income. Most governments have stats indicating what an annual living wage would be in different areas of the country for different household types, so that would be a reasonable figure.

Your question, then, is about distribution. One way would be to give everyone a lump sum, which simply goes on top of your income (whatever it is, if any), and is fully taxable. That's easy to administer and means there is never a delay in receiving the UBI (e.g., if you're suddenly unemployed, you don't have to first apply and wait a while before the UBI starts coming in). However, it's a little weird, since no income is taxed at 100%, so even the rich would retain some of it. It could instead be earmarked as UBI by the state and clawed back after the year depending on your total income, but that could be hard on people that have spent it already (you can't expect everyone to plan their finances that way). Therefore, the more likely way of paying out, would be to top up existing income (if any) until the threshold.

Neither variant would particularly affect inflation though. In case of the latter approach, the government would not actually be spending all that much extra. First, UBI would come in place of existing benefits programs, so that part is simply a different name for the same money. Second, while UBI payments would most likely far exceed exisiting benefits payments, the idea is that a large part of the extra cost would be recouped through less administration (many countries have a complex network of benefits programs that could entirely be removed), lower health care costs (since poverty correlates strongly with health issues), and increased economic growth (UBI would provide the financial security that would allow people to get additional training, start a company, etc.; it's been shown that entrepreneurship is higher in countries with stronger social security nets). Whatever additional cost of UBI has not yet been covered by this point won't be sufficiently significant to affect inflation.

In the former payment scenario (everyone gets a lump sum), there would be a huge additional cost to the state in year 1, but in year 2, this would immediately drop back to similar levels as in the second scenario, as then the state would start recouping excess payments through income tax.

Along the way in all this, I'vee also touched on what I think are the supposed benefits of UBI, so I hope this helps. I'm sure some people will also jump in to add further details - and correct me. :wenger:
 
The government would pay out the UBI and yes, it would need to get its money from somewhere. There wouldn't necessarily be a lot of new money in it though; it depends on how it's done.

The idea of UBI is to ensure that everyone can have at least a certain level of income. Most governments have stats indicating what an annual living wage would be in different areas of the country for different household types, so that would be a reasonable figure.

Your question, then, is about distribution. One way would be to give everyone a lump sum, which simply goes on top of your income (whatever it is, if any), and is fully taxable. That's easy to administer and means there is never a delay in receiving the UBI (e.g., if you're suddenly unemployed, you don't have to first apply and wait a while before the UBI starts coming in). However, it's a little weird, since no income is taxed at 100%, so even the rich would retain some of it. It could instead be earmarked as UBI by the state and clawed back after the year depending on your total income, but that could be hard on people that have spent it already (you can't expect everyone to plan their finances that way). Therefore, the more likely way of paying out, would be to top up existing income (if any) until the threshold.

Neither variant would particularly affect inflation though. In case of the latter approach, the government would not actually be spending all that much extra. First, UBI would come in place of existing benefits programs, so that part is simply a different name for the same money. Second, while UBI payments would most likely far exceed exisiting benefits payments, the idea is that a large part of the extra cost would be recouped through less administration (many countries have a complex network of benefits programs that could entirely be removed), lower health care costs (since poverty correlates strongly with health issues), and increased economic growth (UBI would provide the financial security that would allow people to get additional training, start a company, etc.; it's been shown that entrepreneurship is higher in countries with stronger social security nets). Whatever additional cost of UBI has not yet been covered by this point won't be sufficiently significant to affect inflation.

In the former payment scenario (everyone gets a lump sum), there would be a huge additional cost to the state in year 1, but in year 2, this would immediately drop back to similar levels as in the second scenario, as then the state would start recouping excess payments through income tax.

Along the way in all this, I'vee also touched on what I think are the supposed benefits of UBI, so I hope this helps. I'm sure some people will also jump in to add further details - and correct me. :wenger:

Thanks for taking the time for a comprehensive reply - useful insight mate, appreciate it.
 
Would this not cause inflation?

Just like when we (Man Utd) started earning more money, the price of players went up. Are the two related?
 
I’m just looking at the Conservative approach to save doomed jobs, as opposed to saving the income and spending power of people in those doomed jobs. They’d rather save the abstraction, though in years to come, those jobs won’t exist anyway.
 
I’m just looking at the Conservative approach to save doomed jobs, as opposed to saving the income and spending power of people in those doomed jobs. They’d rather save the abstraction, though in years to come, those jobs won’t exist anyway.
Its a valid concern imo. I really think people being bored and miserable about having nowhere to go every day will be a far more significant problem than freeloaders. Not that i think doomed or bullshit jobs are a particularly good solution to the problem.
 
The government would pay out the UBI and yes, it would need to get its money from somewhere. There wouldn't necessarily be a lot of new money in it though; it depends on how it's done.

The idea of UBI is to ensure that everyone can have at least a certain level of income. Most governments have stats indicating what an annual living wage would be in different areas of the country for different household types, so that would be a reasonable figure.

Your question, then, is about distribution. One way would be to give everyone a lump sum, which simply goes on top of your income (whatever it is, if any), and is fully taxable. That's easy to administer and means there is never a delay in receiving the UBI (e.g., if you're suddenly unemployed, you don't have to first apply and wait a while before the UBI starts coming in). However, it's a little weird, since no income is taxed at 100%, so even the rich would retain some of it. It could instead be earmarked as UBI by the state and clawed back after the year depending on your total income, but that could be hard on people that have spent it already (you can't expect everyone to plan their finances that way). Therefore, the more likely way of paying out, would be to top up existing income (if any) until the threshold.

Neither variant would particularly affect inflation though. In case of the latter approach, the government would not actually be spending all that much extra. First, UBI would come in place of existing benefits programs, so that part is simply a different name for the same money. Second, while UBI payments would most likely far exceed exisiting benefits payments, the idea is that a large part of the extra cost would be recouped through less administration (many countries have a complex network of benefits programs that could entirely be removed), lower health care costs (since poverty correlates strongly with health issues), and increased economic growth (UBI would provide the financial security that would allow people to get additional training, start a company, etc.; it's been shown that entrepreneurship is higher in countries with stronger social security nets). Whatever additional cost of UBI has not yet been covered by this point won't be sufficiently significant to affect inflation.

In the former payment scenario (everyone gets a lump sum), there would be a huge additional cost to the state in year 1, but in year 2, this would immediately drop back to similar levels as in the second scenario, as then the state would start recouping excess payments through income tax.

Along the way in all this, I'vee also touched on what I think are the supposed benefits of UBI, so I hope this helps. I'm sure some people will also jump in to add further details - and correct me. :wenger:

I understood it different to this I think. I thought it was an amount given to everyone to cover the living wage, people would then have the choice of whether they want to work to top up that income for luxuries via working.

It's a reason I argued against it earlier in this thread, so if that isn't the case I don't actually see what the benefit is of this to the majority of the population. I'd love to be in a scenario where everyone in society can afford a roof over their head and a hot meal a day, but if getting their is going to affect most in the country negatively I can't see a lot of people being up for it.
 
I understood it different to this I think. I thought it was an amount given to everyone to cover the living wage, people would then have the choice of whether they want to work to top up that income for luxuries via working.

It's a reason I argued against it earlier in this thread, so if that isn't the case I don't actually see what the benefit is of this to the majority of the population. I'd love to be in a scenario where everyone in society can afford a roof over their head and a hot meal a day, but if getting their is going to affect most in the country negatively I can't see a lot of people being up for it.
Not sure what the difference is? Also, how would UBI affect most people negatively?
 
Not sure what the difference is? Also, how would UBI affect most people negatively?

The amount in my example isn't taxable, its a set amount of money given to everyone regardless of income, so isn't impacted by what you earn.

As for affect most people negatively that was more the example of having to pay it all back as a lump sum, or it increasing the tax you pay on your wage.
 
The amount in my example isn't taxable, its a set amount of money given to everyone regardless of income, so isn't impacted by what you earn.

As for affect most people negatively that was more the example of having to pay it all back as a lump sum, or it increasing the tax you pay on your wage.
Ah ok. I was just going through possible scenarios because of the inflation question. I agree that UBI will more likely be used like a benefit, to top up any income until a threshold. Having to pay back UBI would be a horrible idea that would definitely go wrong for individuals. But you know, governments tend to do new things half-assed, so whoever actually implements it might mess things up in all kinds of ways...

(Personally, I would anyway make the income tax 0% until the UBI threshold, in which case taxable or not wouldn't matter anyway; but that's another discussion.)
 
Job guarantee and basic income are two mutually opposed ways to deal with automation, poverty, etc.



I felt that the job guarantee position was pretty much taken apart in this debate. The killer point being the study showing that Danish unemployed (who receive more generous compensation as well as guaranteed healthcare etc) show no negative health effects compared to the "deaths of despair" in American areas with high unemployment, suggesting that the negative health outcomes of unemployment are to do solely with material conditions rather than losing the dignity of work.
 
I used to be vehemently opposed to UBI now I think it would be great to get some extra dollar to pour into Bitcoin. Bring on UBI!
 
STUDY: Stockton Universal Basic Income Program Results



Stockton’s Basic-Income Experiment Pays Off

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/03/stocktons-basic-income-experiment-pays-off/618174/


Sounds amazing who would have thought that a select group of people getting some free money each month would actually benefit them? Incredible. The real experiment would be to give it to everyone and see how fast it takes for everything to reach hyper inflation and everyone to be back to square one.. earning what the free market says they are worth.
 
Free money sounds great. I've been all for it for some time. But what will probably happen is your government will give you a debet card of some kind, where they will insert a fixed amount each week/month, etc, that comes with restrictions. Can only be used for so and so.. Still great. It's in addition to what you already got, so no problem, just spend on foods and rent. Until most people rely solely on this money to survive. Some years down the line, restrictions include all types of stuff no one regarded relevant in the beginning and the government can limit it or stop giving it at any time because of wronguse
 
Sounds amazing who would have thought that a select group of people getting some free money each month would actually benefit them? Incredible. The real experiment would be to give it to everyone and see how fast it takes for everything to reach hyper inflation and everyone to be back to square one.. earning what the free market says they are worth.

Even then you don't get back to square one because proportionally incomes have increased by significantly different margins. For some UBI will be irrelevant, for others it my be a bump of 100% or more on what they earn. It reduces the gaps.