I looked at it. Two polls last week gave them 4 & 6% leads, which given their seat-mapping advantage would do it.
UK General Election 2015 | Conservatives win with an overall majority
- Thread starter langster
- Start date
Also, looking at the poll projections, does anyone see a change to the current standings in the next 20 days? What could even make a change happen?
As it stands we're pretty much guaranteed a Labour minority government, the seats just aren't there for the Tories.
As it stands we're pretty much guaranteed a Labour minority government, the seats just aren't there for the Tories.
ordinarily yes - but there is probably 20+ seats in scotland that they would normally walk that will in all probability end up SNP this time round which would offset the gains in England
My friend recently fell over very awkwardly, heard a loud crack and her knee swoll up and she couldn't move it at all... my guess would be a torn cruciate ligament to me. When she went to A&E she was waiting for a good 5-6 hours. She's now got to wait 7 weeks for her MRI scan, this is after waiting 2 weeks to get the appointment date. Does that sound about par for the course?
323 seats needed to effectively hold a confidence vote. Based on the most recent projections,
Five Thirty Eight
Five Thirty Eight
Election Forecast
Seat Calculator - New Statesman
Electoral Calculus
Elections Etc
The Guardian
UK Elect
Telgraph/ Betfair
That suggests that the Conservatives would need more than UKIP + DUP(8-10 seats) and surely the Lib Dems wouldn't enter a coalition with UKIP and/or the DUP?
Exactly. They just need to win a lot more of the Labour/ Tory marginals than they currently are. I don't see what changes in the next twenty days to make that happen?
Also - I've no idea what happens if the Tories have something like 20-25 more seats than Labour, but the only way a government can be formed is with a Lab/SNP/LD deal (see the Elections. etc projection). Would public opinion allow that? The right wing press would hammer all involved for the entire duration of their government.
Would be funny to see the Mail explode I suppose. That has been one benefit of the TV debates, the idea of a Labour-SNP coalition no longer looks as scary to the general English public.
I'm pretty happy with that, assumed it would go the other way.
The bookies are usually more reliable than the other poles.
Paddypower:
Conservatves: 286
Labour: 272
LD: 26
SNP: 43
William Hill:
Conservatives: 284
Labour: 272
LD: 26
SNP: 43
Ladbrokes:
Conservative: 283
Labour: 273
LD: 26
SNP: 43
Skybet:
Conservatives: 285
Labour: 272
LD: 26
SNP: 43
So no two parties together would hold a majority (except Conservatives/Labour)
Enough with the Pole bashing Nigel!
And the SNP will get more than 43 seats, I'm sure of that (£1k comes my way if so).
To be honest I think the conservatives will also outperform all polls; due to the sheer number of people who believe in their policies but don't want the stigma of saying they are a Tory voter. I think this usually equates to about 4 points (+2 / -2), so if I were to put my mark I'd say Conservatives 290-295 Labour 260-265 SNP c.45 LD 25-30 with Green/UKIP/PC getting around 10.
Either way it'll be a 3 party Government that'll probably crumble.
The thing that worries me most is that we end up with another election in 6 months time, 1974 style.
Betfair are 5/1 on under 35 seats for the SNP. I will stick £100 on this!
True - the worry is the uncertainty that goes with it. I might invest in a fair few dollars as I can see the pound taking a big hit.
I'm not sure that's wise! You may as well put the 10/1 bet with Paddypower that Labour win 20 or more, as if the SNP win 34 or less that's a guarantee.
Have you seen anything to support that? I don't really know. Trying to make sense of this article, it looks like there's very slight evidence of that phenomena (if they're left/above of the centre line, they've outperformed the polls, if right/below the line, it's the opposite. Labour winners tend to have still performed slightly worse than polls on the day. In 2010 the Tories were slightly better than expected, Labour on trend, and the Lib Dems significantly worse.
To be honest I think the conservatives will also outperform all polls; due to the sheer number of people who believe in their policies but don't want the stigma of saying they are a Tory voter. I think this usually equates to about 4 points (+2 / -2), so if I were to put my mark I'd say Conservatives 290-295 Labour 260-265 SNP c.45 LD 25-30 with Green/UKIP/PC getting around 10.
Either way it'll be a 3 party Government that'll probably crumble.
Throwing your money away there mate.
I've had a good run recently (touch wood) so I'm betting with Hilly's money anyway
I think they will get circa 30 and not over 40.
I think they will get circa 30 and not over 40.
Well at this stage in the 2010 election the Tories had a c. 4 point lead on Labour in the polls but finishing with a 7.2% victory.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005
At this stage in 2005 Labour had a c. 7 point lead and finished with a 3% victory.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election
At this stage in 2001 Labour had a c. 20 point lead and finished with a 9% victory.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2001
three to one you can get on that...
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/will-there-be-2-general-elections-in-2015
I already have as I can only see two likely outcomes
- Conservative + Libs + UKIP which will fall apart as soon as they try to define a question for an immediate refferendum
- Or LAB, SNP, (possibly others in an anti tory alliance) - which will fall apart as soon as the SNP demands another referendum or trident crops up
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics...lection/prime-minister-after-general-election
conservatives still favourites for most seats
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats
isnt there some stats showing tory voters are more likely to go out and vote though than other voters (possibly because on average their supporters are older and there is a higher % older of people who vote? http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout10.htm- isnt there also a lot of overseas ballots that often come in for tories which are not often captured in polls?) not sure this explains it all but I am sure I have seen something in the past about those being a coupld of factors - I think when it rains for example the swing to the tories is more dramatic than if its a nice sunny day when more of the undecided / less committed voters actually turn out)
Bookies seem to think there will be around a 66% turn out http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/turnout which is about the same as last time I think but perhaps a lower turnout say 2 or 3% and most of those being non conservative voters could make a big difference
It does at the moment. Which could suggest that if Cameron is as desperate to avoid the SNP in government as he makes out then he would be best advising people to vote Labour.
I think it's due to a few things:
- Conservative voters are often older and as you say more reliable/committed to voting
- Many people who are associated with the hardcore Labour support identify themselves as Labour voters even if they don't actually vote (offspring, neighbours, friends etc). The difference is plain to see in that thousands celebrated and partied at the death of Thatcher, whereas I can't think of a Labour leader that would register more than an "what a shame".
- Some Tory voters don't want to identify themselves as Tory voters because there are many areas where this is a little embarrassing.
I also depends on how cautious Labour are. Ed Miliband might be able to become Prime Minister on the back of the SNP vote, but will the rest of the Labour party go along with this? If it went wrong it could condemn a generation of voters to associate Labour with the SNP and stop them from getting back into Government for a couple of decades.
If that's the case (which it could be) then you can basically delete the SNP seats from having any relevance. They might see another election later this year as a better alternative to being lambasted as SNP puppets for years to come. Plus if another election did happen Labour may feel their "vote SNP, get Cameron" rhetoric would be very successful.
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I think Cameron completely dropped the ball in not attending the debate. Between that, right to buy and the EU referendum im struggling to justify voting for him.
I think people who say they will vote Labour are probably less likely to vote than Conservative voters who are generally old and have nothing better to do. *ducks*
A few Tory party activists I know are privately saying they think the best thing that could happen is SNP governing with Labour and demanding another referendum.
It will push the English votes on English issues to the top of the agenda which tey feel plays into their hands
They think it will alienate UK voters for several elections to come and if Scotland leave the Union then it will leave the Conservatives as almost unbeatable in a first past the post system in England.
The models that were posted earlier also all include assumptions about swing back to the tories before election day, but time is running out now and it's still not really happening. If current polls were what happened on election day, Labour would have around 20 seats more than the tories.
What about brits living abroad (particularly in Europe?) would farrage want them to vote?
also doesnt farrage want the question to be something like
- do you want the uk to be a free and independent state
- do you want to stay part of Europe guaranteeing access to the free market
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Don't see why such a deal would fall apart. People said the exact same thing about the Tory/ Lib Dem coalition - they'll straighten all the key issues out at the negotiation table, because, well, they have to.
because the red line for UKIP is an immediate refferendum on europe and the way then want that phrased is completly opposite to the libs who are totally opposed to an immediate referendum.
Much harder to hold three parties together when two of them have such radically opposed views
Again I think the current polls (as history shows) are skewed towards Labour. I'll eat my hat if the Tories don't win more seats than Labour and it'll probably be by 20-30 seats.
Milliband would have rocks in his head to agree any deal with the SNP without guarantees on no new independence referendum for 15 years or so and the renewal of Trident.
I'm talking about a SNP/ Labour deal. There won't be a push for a referendum in the next five years, and the Trident issue will be sorted at the negotiation table. They won't enter an arrangement with each other without answers to these questions.
Also, I agree with you, and don't think there's any chance of the Lib Dems being in the same coalition as UKIP. Which again makes the Tories' chances of finding a workable majority hard to envisage.
That's as as an incorrect reading as there is ever likely to be
You're reading them completely wrong to suit your argument.Firstly in the 2001 election Conservatives were polled on average at 31% and they got 31.7% of the vote.
In 2005 they were polled on averege at 32% and they got 32.4% of the vote
In 2010 they were polled at around 36% and they got 36.9% of the vote.
Where did you find evidence that there is some kind of Tory surge on election day?
If anything the incumbent would be considered to poll higher being in government and then suffer slightly on election day.
there does seem to be more opportunity for labour / snp to make it work - I guess a we wont renew trident in this parliament if you don't have a referendum in this parliament would be the most obvious deal I'm just not sure how far the trident issue can be pushed back in practical terms of commissioning timescales etc
And when you place the pencil by your desired option it either plays Land of Hope and Glory or the latest Eurovision winner. Hm
And Cameron:
If you like all of these wonderful concessions which i have personally renegotiated for you...
That's as as an incorrect reading as there is ever likely to be
Firstly in the 2001 election Conservatives were polled on average at 31% and they got 31.7% of the vote.
In 2005 they were polled on averege at 32% and they got 32.4% of the vote
In 2010 they were polled at around 36% and they got 36.9% of the vote.
Where did you find evidence that there is some kind of Tory surge on election day?
If anything the incumbent would be considered to poll higher being in government and then suffer slightly on election day.
I was looking at this point before an election (c. 3 weeks before):
2010 election: average between 15th April and 22nd April = Conservative 5 point difference, ended up 7 points.
2005 election: average between 15th April and 22nd April = Labour 7 point lead, ended up 3 points.
2001 election: average between 15th May and 22nd May = Labour 21.5 point lead, ended up 9 points.
How is that an incorrect reading?
Because you're reading the popular vote difference between Labour and the Conservatives when there are other parties in play.
You should be reading the difference between the polled popular vote for the Conservatives and the actual vote which was less than 1% in all cases.
That's a wholly incorrect reading to suit your ridiculous argument
A 4% win by Labour GB-wide (36-32 over Tories with 25% in Scotland) translates into
Labour 324
Conservative 240
SNP 51
Liberal Democrat 15
UKIP 0
Labour 324
Conservative 240
SNP 51
Liberal Democrat 15
UKIP 0