That seems like an incredibly optimistic result, though.
UK General Election 2015 | Conservatives win with an overall majority
- Thread starter langster
- Start date
That seems like an incredibly optimistic result, though.
What are the likely coalitions?
Because you're reading the popular vote difference between Labour and the Conservatives when there are other parties in play.
You should be reading the difference between the polled popular vote for the Conservatives and the actual vote which was less than 1% in all cases.
That's a wholly incorrect reading to suit your ridiculous argument
Of course there's other parties in play, but my whole point was that the Conservatives tend to do better in the election than they poll 3-4 weeks before, whereas Labour tend to do worse. That isn't an argument, it's a fact. Not sure why you think I'd be trying to "argue" it either way to be honest.
According to the bookies, in descending order of likeliness:
Labour minority
Conservative minority
Conservative majority
Conservative / Lib Dem coalition
Labour / Lib Dem coalition
Labour / SNP coalition
Labour majority
Labour / Lib Dem / SNP coaltion
Conservative / Lib Dem / DUP coalition
After that it's worse than 25/1
I apologize in advance for the dumb questions but what are the major obstacles to a labour/snp coalition?
Absolutely sickening. Obviously its not nearly as bad in the UK but it exemplifies exactly why people don't engage with politics. Why should I care about relatively slight differences between two pretty similar parties when stuff like this is going on in the world? What makes it worse, is there are plenty of people who aren't any better off than me defending, saying he earned and deserves every penny, and people should stop whining and expecting handouts (I guess that would include those 3000 children) . Melts my brain.
SNP haven't ruled out a second d referendum on ondependence.
SNP are a left-wing nationalist party who want Scottish Independence. Going into a formal coalition with them would make other parties look like they were supporting the independence claim/ "trying to break up the union". If they make a deal with Labour it'll be a less formal, vote-by-vote, 'supply and confidence' deal.
Ukip election leaflet ridiculed for dozens of errors
17 Apr 2015
A teacher in Somerset has left her mark on the 2015 general election after pointing out more than a dozen errors in a Ukip campaign leaflet.
Armed with the traditional red pen, the disappointed English teacher circled a grammatical mistake in almost every sentence of the flyer.
Full article :: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11545146/Ukip-election-leaflet-ridiculed-for-dozens-of-errors.html
17 Apr 2015
A teacher in Somerset has left her mark on the 2015 general election after pointing out more than a dozen errors in a Ukip campaign leaflet.
Armed with the traditional red pen, the disappointed English teacher circled a grammatical mistake in almost every sentence of the flyer.
Full article :: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11545146/Ukip-election-leaflet-ridiculed-for-dozens-of-errors.html
Cameron's going all out to legalise fox hunting with dogs I see. I pray his next shite is a hedgehog. A sport, he claims... a cruel & utter c*nt of a man.
As well as independence there is Trident.
The decision has been put off to the point where its becoming impractical to put it off any longer.
SNP will not vote for any renewal of trident
Labour want to renew Trident
The only compromises that could work are renew trident but remove it from Scotland (I'm still not sure the SNP would vote for that as they say they are against nuclear weapons completely and their primary practical objection is cost which only increases by having to build new sub bases)
Put off the renewal of trident - though I'm not sure this is practical and it may lead to a point like with the aircraft carriers where we are without any operable system as the old one is obsolete before the new one is operable.
http://www.basicint.org/sites/default/files/uktridentreplacementfactsheet-june2014.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Successor_to_the_UK_Trident_system
And when you place the pencil by your desired option it either plays Land of Hope and Glory or the latest Eurovision winner. Hm
And Cameron:
If you like all of these wonderful concessions which i have personally renegotiated for you...
It might be better for his legacy if he looses this election because he will take a kicking and get nothing but humiliated if he tries to renegotiate the EU treaties
I don't see Trident actually being too much of an obstacle given it's likely to be a confidence and supply agreement rather than a formal coalition between Labour and the SNP. Labour should be able to get any Trident renewal through the commons without the SNP. The Tories, as much as I'm sure they'd love to give a minority Labour government a bloody nose, are unlikely to risk doing it over something like trident.
Thanks. Wouldn't compromising on these issues or at least delaying them be preferable to another conservative government?
The actual fact is they have done very marginally better than the polls have suggested and well well well within the margin of error. The real reason for that is because they have been a challenger to the government and not because people are embarrassed to declare that they will vote Tory. In 1997 when they were in power they were polling between 30 and 34% and only got a 30.7% of the vote. Your claims, and your margins especially are extremely far-fetched.
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The party willing to take on the important issues....
Miliband has categorically ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP.
I disagree - I think the tories would play politics with the issue - they would wrap it up by saying we need a new election because only the conservatives can deliver a nuclear capable uk - they would spin it into a miliband issue and look to exploit I have no doubt about that
libs, taffs, jocks and hippies would never vote for it - even some labour mp's voted with the snp to scrap trident this year
I disagree.
The current polls suggest Labour have a couple of point advantage over the Conservatives. However the bookies have the voting heavily in favour of the Conservatives with 1/4 to receive most votes vs Labour 5/2.
This would also usually translate to Labour winning more seats, as the boundaries tend to favour them also. However the bookies again have most seats with the Conservatives at 1/2 vs Labour 13/8.
Just like history shows Labour are polling better, but all the smart money is that the Conservatives will out-perform the polling.
Meh, people promise a lot of things that soon get forgotten. If the Tories were being held to their promises from the last election they'd be nowhere right now.
Although as the libs have found out that promise on tuition fees has haunted them ever since.
Those few concessions which the EU might be prepared to grant simply aren't going to be enough to satisfy most Eurosceptics.
He is just trying to convince the Scottish electorate to vote Labour. In reality we all know that a coalition, informal or formal, is on the cards.
A Labour - Lib Dem coalition is what I am hoping for, failing a Labour majority.
It would be a huge risk for the Tories to block it considering they've used the threat of that very circumstance to warn off a Labour/SNP coalition. If a minority Labour government supported by the SNP were to collapse over it and force another election I don't think it would play well for the Tories.
You can't disagree with facts
You changed you argument from Conservatives getting a 4 point swing to them outperforming the polling on the last 3 elections and to what the odds are. All of these are highly speculative means compared to actual facts that I have presented which are as follows:
- they outperformed the polling by less than 1% which on all cases is three times less then the margin of error.
- they were in opposition challenging the government on all three ocassions
- when they are in government in 1997 they were polled between 30-34% (33% the day before the election) and won 30.7% of the popular vote.
- you're wrongly labeling Labour losses in the polls as Conservative gains when its not a 2 party election
- smaller parties tend to get a chunk of the incumbents share of the vote when compared to the polls as their support is in small numbers therefore unlikely to be represented accurately in each sample
There's that and there is also the fact he doesn't want to do a deal with the SNP because he would rather have a majority. He has to strongly advocate that position until election day in order to convince voters that there's no alternative.
Could Joanna Lumley and some Gurkhas please parachute into my constituency so as to provide me with a perfectly unobjectionable option? Pretty please? 
Or how about the National Trust become a political party just for one day.
I truly did think that we' d see more in the way of independent candidates following the expenses entanglements.
Which of their 2010 policies would have sunk Tory fortunes so low do you think?
Even should it be limited to a confidence and supply partnership, any accusations of favouritism toward the SNP could linger for some while (and more widespread than was the tuition fees controversy).
Or how about the National Trust become a political party just for one day.
I truly did think that we' d see more in the way of independent candidates following the expenses entanglements.
Which of their 2010 policies would have sunk Tory fortunes so low do you think?
Even should it be limited to a confidence and supply partnership, any accusations of favouritism toward the SNP could linger for some while (and more widespread than was the tuition fees controversy).
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I don't know - the labour party would be in a shambles after having their government collapse so it probably wouldn't play well for them either - I certainly would not expect the conservatives to back it this time unlike in 2007 when they did but over 90 labour MP's voted against the government - at that point the labour majority was so big there was virtually no way of voting it down in a confidence motion... next time however things might be differnt (I would expect a labour opposition to vote against as well making a conservative / lib coalition virtually dead in the water as well)
Parliamentary support[edit]
On 14 March 2007, the Labour government won Commons support for the plans to renew the submarine system. The proposals were passed by the House of Commons by a majority of 248.[28] Despite a clarification that the vote was just for the concept stage of the new system, 95 Labour MPs rebelled, and it was only passed with the support of the opposition Conservative Party.[28][29] It was the first time MPs had been given the chance to vote on whether the UK should remain a nuclear power, and the biggest rebellion since the beginning of the 2003 Iraq war.[28]
You can't disagree with facts
You changed you argument from Conservatives getting a 4 point swing to them outperforming the polling on the last 3 elections and to what the odds are. All of these are highly speculative means compared to actual facts that I have presented which are as follows:
- they outperformed the polling by less than 1% which on all cases is three times less then the margin of error.
- they were in opposition challenging the government on all three ocassions
- when they are in government in 1997 they were polled between 30-34% (33% the day before the election) and won 30.7% of the popular vote.
- you're wrongly labeling Labour losses in the polls as Conservative gains when its not a 2 party election
- smaller parties tend to get a chunk of the incumbents share of the vote when compared to the polls as their support is in small numbers therefore unlikely to be represented accurately in each sample
I wasn't disagreeing with facts, I was disagreeing with your representation of your selected facts. You likewise disagreed with how I was presenting the facts I highlighted.
My argument is that in modern history the Conservatives outperform the polls at this point in the election campaign, whereas Labour tend to fall short. This does not take into account other winners and losers as they are somewhat irrelevant to my point. If Labour loses voters to the Lib Dems, who themselves lose voters to the Tories; it's the same result. Labour fall short & the Tories out-perform the polls.
The odds (which are invariably more accurate than the polls) suggest that what I'm saying will be the case again. Despite Labour polling a couple of points ahead, it is hugely unlikely that they will either gain more votes or gain more seats. Despite the Tories polling behind, they are hugely odds-on to secure more votes and more seats.
If you don't believe what I'm saying and feel that the opposition tend to be short changed in the polls, then you have a great opportunity to make some serious cash: put a grand on Labour to win the most votes and you'll win a cool £2,500. However in my view history shows that'd be a good way to lose a chunk of cash.
Smart money or blue money from the well-heeled?
That would have the opposite effect on the odds, I'd assume (although I'd imagine as much money has been bet on Labour).
the odds do suggest milliband is favourite to be the next pm though http://www.oddschecker.com/politics...lection/prime-minister-after-general-election and his odds are shortening
You cannot call it outperforming the polls when their results have been well within the margin of error on every single occasion. The fact is that even in the small selection of elections that have used to suit your argument they have never ever received more than 1% of the popular vote than the polls have suggested so your ridiculous claims that there will be a 4 point swing are just that, ridiculous.
That's because there are more left wing parties that he can garner support from. Labour could technically get backing from the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and the Greens. That's potentially around 80 seats.
The Conservatives arguably have the Lib Dems, UKIP & the DUP. Total of around 35 seats.
A 4 point swing at this stage would have the Conservatives a couple of points ahead. That's in line with every bookie estimate.
Again if you think I'm wrong you've got an easy opportunity to make a lot of money on the back of your claim.
More money has been bet on the Tories that's why they're favs.
Possibly, although history suggests that the odds at this stage are usually more accurate than the polls.
That also wouldn't account for the fact that Ed Miliband is joint favourite to be Prime Minister and a minority Labour government being the shortest odds. Unless loads of Tories are voting on them to win the most seats, but not voting on who will be Prime Minister or who will form the Government (unlikely imo).
Why don't we get rob to settle this? He was a bookmakers assistant.
This is becoming beyond laughable and quite frankly I think its sad that you continue to ignore the facts while still strongly supporting your ridiculous theory that Tories outperform the polls because people are embarrassed to say they're voting for them.
Final fact for you as I've had enough of you plucking figures and theories out of thin air. The biggest increase of the Tory vote share was at the 1992 election, and that was 2% over a period of six months, which makes your claims of a four point swing in the next 3 weeks even more ridiculous.