I still buy the 'rain helps the Tories', as they have more cars, theory.
Let sunshine win the day.
UK General Election 2015 | Conservatives win with an overall majority
- Thread starter langster
- Start date
Let sunshine win the day.
What you're doing is spinning her words. Cutting and pasting a portion of a conversation is doing exactly that, surely you agree?
The actual transcript:
Basically, one party, or as will happen here, a group of parties, needs 323 seats in the House of Commons to vote for them in order to pass a Queen's speech, a budget, and to form a government. Last time the Tories + Lib Dems was more than enough, but this time it looks there won't be any two parties who are capable of making a deal as straight forward as that. The question is then, are there going to be enough 'anti Tory' seats to vote Labour into power.
Just a quick question; if the Conservatives win more seats than Labour - can Labour still form a minority government? Not a coalition.
If so, how?...and who's decision is it?
If so, how?...and who's decision is it?
Thanks mate. I think I get it.
I don't think the caf poll represents the UK at all as a whole
Also has even one of the 26 who selected UKIP actually posted in this thread?
Also has even one of the 26 who selected UKIP actually posted in this thread?
Come on electorate, make it rain;
Does the Lib Dem/Labour coalition include if it's a minority coalition?
Apparently that was just Grant Shapps.
I'm pretty sure Cameron gets the option to try and do it first. But he's not going to be able to, since it's extremely unlikely he'll get over 300 seats, thus he won't have enough with the Lib Dems. That's where he'd resign, and Miliband would be invited to form a government. I think.
Football fans in general are more likely to be Labour supporters I guess. If you went on a rugby union or cricket forum it'd probably be a very different story.
I've not seen any of the UKIP lot in here. Does anyone know an admin/mod who could set up another poll of whether people are voting tactically, and who they'd ideally vote for?
I called them up to check. They said yes, the only terms to the bet are that the Lib Dems and Labour both have ministers in a government, with no other party having a minister. Think those odds are ludicrous in that case.
Just @MajorTom I believe. Maybe one more who's name I've forgotten.
Yes, but the Tories get first crack at making a coalition as they are the party in power. If they cannot get the appropriate number of seats (mostly because the Lib Dems have lost so many), labour will get the opportunity to form a minority government that would likely be passed as it would have support of the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru.
Ah right, well in that case it's an excellent bet, kinda tempted to throw some money on it myself since the SNP will help Labour to get in, but obviously won't be anywhere near an actual government.
To be fair the percentage of labour voters is close. The Tories are well behind though.
Yeah, pretty chuffed with it. Was tempted to make a higher bet but I've spent more than enough already on the SNP one.
Would make it soon if you do though - the odds are down to 9 now. I can cash out for 67p profit if I want.
Yeah, pretty chuffed with it. Was tempted to make a higher bet but I've spent more than enough already on the SNP one.
Would make it soon if you do though - the odds are down to 9 now. I can cash out for 67p profit if I want.
You could donate it to Scottish Labour. It might cover all their expenses over the next 5 years for their MP's at Westminster after Friday.
You could donate it to Scottish Labour. It might cover all their expenses over the next 5 years for their MP's at Westminster after Friday.
I reckon they'll keep 2-5. Feel like Danny Alexander will somehow hold on too.
She went in double quick time from saying he stands by his pledges and promises to saying nobody is saying he won't break them. I'm not spinning anything, she said it quite clearly. We are not going to agree so I will leave it there.
Nice, aiming to get an SC245 when life allows me the opportunity.
On those numbers it would be the slenderest of majorities and that's what primarily brought down the "Rainbow coalition" idea in 2010, it was just too fragile and there was a more realistic alternative. Think Tories probably need over 290 for it to be feasible, which is certainly possible. Labour have an easier time with the maths, just going to be hard for it not to look bad to the public who are thoroughly confused about the whole thing.
Yeah, pretty chuffed with it. Was tempted to make a higher bet but I've spent more than enough already on the SNP one.
Would make it soon if you do though - the odds are down to 9 now. I can cash out for 67p profit if I want.
Best of luck with that mate, wish I was brave enough!
Wouldn't be surprised. Think he, and a few others, wil do better when their names are in front of voters than when people are just asked what party they intend to vote for.
I reckon they'll keep 2-5. Feel like Danny Alexander will somehow hold on too.
I reckon they'll keep 2-5. Feel like Danny Alexander will somehow hold on too.
They'll manage to keep a few. I reckon Murphy and Douglas Alexander will hold on certainly, and they've got some other seats as well where they're likely to hang on. They'll probably get 10-15 at the very most though.
I'm not sure about Danny though: just checked electoral calculus and they have the SNP at 54%, and the Lib Dems at 21% in that particular seat. Incumbency might narrow that down a bit, but he looks like he'll be gone come Friday. Carmichael should hang on in the Shetlands since they presumably have very slow internet and have just been impressed by Clegg's 2010 debate performance. Charles Kennedy might manage to keep his seat, although the odds are still fairly stacked against him.
Also Manchester is traditionally very Labour bias (is it the red?), not that everyone on here is from Manchester but of course many are.
I don't know anything about the individual constituencies tbf, haven't been back to Scotland since 2013. Going to the Fringe this year to make up for it.
I've been looking into a wee bit out of interest, so I have some knowledge of certain areas. Pretty interesting the way it's all just changed though to the point where candidates in ultra-safe seats look very unlikely to win.
And nice, never been to the fringe myself actually, but definitely planning to go sometime.
Some of the paper front pages for tomorrow:
and the Mail:
and the Mail:
'Never mind the election - be outraged by gay bloke.'
The swings the SNP are predicted to get in some places are staggering. They're favourite for Kirkcaldy, which needs a 25% swing ffs. Madness.
Who's gonna be up tomorrow night then? I have Friday off
Who's gonna be up tomorrow night then? I have Friday off
The swings the SNP are predicted to get in some places are staggering. They're favourite for Kirkcaldy, which needs a 25% swing ffs. Madness.
Who's gonna be up tomorrow night then? I have Friday off
In some places, they need a 40% swing but are still neck and neck with Labour. It's crazy.
I might need a power nap but my plan's to stay up till half four... Work on Friday's a write-off.The swings the SNP are predicted to get in some places are staggering. They're favourite for Kirkcaldy, which needs a 25% swing ffs. Madness.
Who's gonna be up tomorrow night then? I have Friday off
I'm tempted to put money on a Labour-LD coalition as well considering the odds offered. A £50 bet seems like a free holiday. How long are the post-election dealings likely to last?
Could be up to a month, depending on the numbers. If Tories have comfortably the most seats but below the level needed to secure a deal, I see them putting forward a queen's speech at least, which is the end of May. If it's about evens, should be over within the week.
If it's the predicted c. 280 for the Tories and c.270 for Labour it'll take a while then?
Nah, would be pretty comfortable if it's that I'd say. If Lab+SNP is 315+ I think it'll be fairly straight forward for Labour to form a gov (likely then with the Lib Dems). The worry is how legitimate it all looks if the Tories get 20+ seats more than Labour, but not enough to form a government.
I won't care when I'm on holiday though.
I really think it should be LibLab because that is fun to say and if you disagree with me you are stupid.
That might be close enough for it to be done quickly. A lot depends on the Lib Dems I suppose, if they come out clearly in favour of working with Labour then that spanners the Tories totally, but they've also made it clear they'd be uncomfortable if Labour were the smaller party by a fair margin. Obviously it's subjective as to how big a seat gap is "too big", constitutionally there's no judgement just maths, but I'd say over 20 it gets much harder. Tories on 285-290 is the dangerous area, they'd probably have enough for governing but in the very weakest form and that would drag on a ton. Given all the polls are dead-heating, you'd hope it just comes out 275 apiece but that would be too easy.
I think if that's the outcome I might consider a permanent holiday.
Anything's better than the country being ConDem'ed again.
Blukip's a fun one too. Less sunny than LibLab sadly...