DUP are a far more likely candidate for government than UKIP, who the Lib Dems wouldn't work with at all. Reasonably optimistic forecasts post-election gives the tories about 290 and Lib Dems in the mid to high 20s. Together that's still short of the 323 they'd need, hence the DUP.
UK General Election 2015 | Conservatives win with an overall majority
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I'll have to listen to the interview in full later this evening; though whether it be Miliband or Cameron as PM, i'd like to think that we'll continue to see progress in regard to equality (more so if the Lib Dems are in government). Hate speech and incitement are two areas where the law has skipped past the trans community.
Trannies and lezzers, they are just showing their age.
Yeah I haven't really considered my view on changing the voting age seriously, but would err against it I think for those reasons.
I agree on Miliband. I'm actually not hugely surprised by it as anyone I know that's met him has said he's really impressive in person and I think all the debates and interviews have given him a chance to shine on that front. The Tory personal attacks against him have been ill judged in my opinion and they could have just attacked on the policy stuff front without resorting to the brother taunts, which most people moved on from years ago. I think Miliband has weathered the storm well and is starting communicate more clearly on what his positions are, which seems to be working for him. I saw an article on him earlier entitled 'The long walk to cool' which is a good description of how his image is turning around. I still think his front bench is not particularly strong though, and worry about some of the wise heads that are standing down for Labour this election.
I see no logic for an in/out EU referendum. There isn't the popular support for leaving that makes a referendum anywhere near necessary.
You can't fathom why people might want a a say over the country's continuing relationship with such a highly corrupt organisation? One which has sought to pass laws hostile to our interests, and has its direction driven by Eurozone members who are firm believers in the "project". It is also reasonable to assume that new laws/treaties will be required to ensure the viability of the Eurozone, so better to pick the time ourselves than have the acts of others do so.
Europe would do better to tear down the EU and begin anew, creating a streamlined cooperative which fits the needs of the public rather than politicians dreaming of empire.
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I see no logic for an in/out EU referendum. There isn't the popular support for leaving that makes a referendum anywhere near necessary.
I don't see the harm in it, and as you can see there is huge variation over a fairly short period. I really think we need a proper debate on EU membership, as a massive net contributor we really need to understand what we get for that.
Regardless of what you personally think of the EU, our political system is a representative democracy which would usually only require a referendum over major constitutional changes or where there is a groundswell of public opinion sustained over a long period of time. I don't see the case for holding a referendum on our continuing membership of the EU as opposed to numerous other issues.
The fact there is such variation in public opinion is precisely why this isn't something that needs to be put to a referendum.
I'd say an issue like the EU, and whether we're in it or not, is pretty massive. In addition to that, it's been a pretty big issue for a while now. UKIP have been on the rise for a good couple of years, and even if they don't continue to grow, they're going to get a substantial portion of the vote this time, and got the biggest portion of the vote in the EU elections. When you're having EU elections and the most voted party is one which wants to leave, I'd say there's a decent mandate for a referendum, especially when it's quite clear that a lot of people feel passionately about it.
Also, it'd be the best way to (hopefully) make UKIP go away. A good, coordinated campaign to inform people of the benefits of the EU would have a decent chance of winning since UKIP would largely be on their own in regards to leaving. The longer it's left, the more time UKIP have to continue building as a party, and actually attempt to be taken seriously by the majority of the population.
So opinion changes means we shouldn't get the opportunity to a referendum.
It would make a referendum result overly dependent on the timing. You don't want to be making long term (and irreversible) changes on the basis of wildly fluctuating public opinion. That would be ludicrous.
I would be supportive of referenda rights in other areas also, particularly with the current state of politics. What for you represents a major constitutional change? Did you think that the people of Europe should have been asked for their approval of the EU Constitution?
UKIP poll below 15% of the electorate... and much lower if you include 'don't knows' and non-voters. It's not (currently) an issue that warrants a referendum.
I doubt it would go down that way. The loss of the Scottish Independence referendum hasn't killed off the SNP despite informing people of the benefits of the UK.
Kind of like the "Wenger out!" brigade.
A party with roughly 10-15% support across the country is one with pretty decent support, to be fair. Not massive, but decent considering they were largely irrelevant a few years back. Plus, they essentially won the EU elections, which is pretty big considering their main goal is to leave it. That surely shows a fair bit of discontent with the EU.
The SNP point is a good one, but I'd argue it's a slightly different situation. They're a party who have already been pretty big in Scotland for a good while, and have a record in government. They already had substantial support in Holyrood which has now transferred to Westminster.
It shows that no one else really gives a shit about the EU elections.
That just makes it easy to dismiss a strong public opinion, and is incredibly patronising.
With regards to the EU, I'd say a proposal for the transfer of major fiscal, monetary or defence policy to European decision making would warrant a referendum. There doesn't appear to be anything like that in the pipeline at the moment.
There isn't a strong public opinion... that's why it's fluctuating between in and out. If the 'leave the EU' option polled consistently above 50% for 3-5 years, then I'd be in favour of a referendum.
There is a strong public opinion, not sure why you think yougov is the holy grail. Nothing wrong with giving people a vote on a topic that is so divisive, if as many seem to want out rather than in it at times it doesn't make sense to stay in by default just because we are in.
You don't make huge constitutional changes on a whim. It's not like getting the public to vote on the latest X-Factor winner.
When there is sustained strong public opinion behind leaving the EU, then by all means let's have a referendum.
There isn't a strong public opinion, that's the forking point.
Osborne standing up for the working man on Newsnight.
I imagine he's wearing a hard hat. Nothing says he's representing the working man like a hard hat.
There is though, that's the forking point.
There isn't - you mistake the opinions of your limited circle for the wider population.
Aye, and he connected with Mick the delivery guy.
As an aside, stamp duty needs reforming and really should be a seller's rather than a buyer's tax. No party seems to grasp that.
You're becoming even more patronising. The EU is an increasingly divisive issue in the UK, there is a significant degree of support for a referendum, and a referendum would be good at this point in time to revisit public opinion and support for EU membership, let's face it what we signed up for has changed significantly.
There is, you're somewhat deluded.
There is consistently much stronger support among the British public for reintroducing the death penalty than there is for leaving the EU. Shall we have a referendum on that too?
In the scheme of political questions, the EU debate isn't currently so divisive or controversial as to warrant a referendum.
Instead of a modest poll how about we examine the results of a big one, last year's EU elections. Approaching 60% of the votes either went to Eurosceptic parties or those amenable to a referendum out of democratic principles, and this is before you consider th Labour supporters (Lib Dems to a lesser extent) who would be desirous of a change in Britain's relationship with Brussels. Not thousands in response to a pollster but millions at the ballot box.
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Forking hell, Mike's posted enough numbers. This is becoming a recurrent theme with you - expand limited personal experience into a universal.
We can't bring in the death penalty... We are part of the EU!
They don't vary by that much.
I thought they made a really good case for it in highlighting that they can work, pay taxes, rent/nuy a home, join the armed forces etc, but they can't vote even though they are affected just like everyone else, especially by education policies. Cameron's rebuttle was that they had a discussion at the party and they thought 18 is the right age as its then you van go down the pub for a drink
OK I forgot 'Mike's numbers' are fact and never to be questioned, and yougov is the sole source of truth in the universe.
Limited personal experience, feck off you condescending twat. Your recurrent theme is one of bullying in this thread, whenever your politics is not agreed with.
I thought they made a really good case for it in highlighting that they can work, pay taxes, rent/nuy a home, join the armed forces etc, but they can't vote even though they are affected just like everyone else, especially by education policies. Cameron's rebuttle was that they had a discussion at the party and they thought 18 is the right age as its then you van go down the pub for a drink
Yes, to be honest that was probably the best made argument in the entire debate. That said, for most 16 and 17 year olds they don't do any of those things until a bit later and with proposals to make the school leaving age 18, that proportion is going to decrease further.
I found the Libya stuff to be the low point. It was made really flippantly (and by Chris Smith, which felt completely inappropriate coming from the Chair.) Regardless of your political persuasion, it really annoys me when people make patronising criticisms of that level of decision making without acknowledging that there's no clear right answer and you are essentially having to take a gamble on the least horrendous option, accepting that all of them will come with innocent lives lost and there's essentially nothing you can do to stop that. What on earth would any of them have done in that position?
You conflate what your mates/colleagues say into what 'people think', you expanded a personal experience of NHS procurement into 'NHS waste'. If you feel 'bullied' it's only because your opinions don't stand up to scrutiny.
Listened to that interview - Cameron did do quite poorly. Granted, the interviewer saying he'd bet £1000 against a Tory majority was pretty poor of him, but I am tired of Cameron and Miliband both saying, "They're working towards a majority.", when they know fine well when they're being asked about what would happen if they didn't have one.
In fact, there was one particular moment when Cameron asked one of the people why he thought he had a god given right to predict what would happen definitively, when this is essentially what Cameron keeps on doing.
The question about LGBT, despite the DUP being fairly minor, were legitimate. Notably, Cameron dodged it by saying he'd stick to his position on LGBT rights, while not officially ruling out any sort of deal with the DUP.
The forgetting the living wage part was quite poor on his point too, although I suppose it's decent to see a politician admit when they don't know the figures, even if it took about 5 attempts of wriggling out of the question until he did it.
He's certainly not having a good election campaign though, Miliband has the momentum right now and seems to actually be becoming a popular figure. Tories have a lot of work to do if they want to have a decent chance at forming any sort of coalition.
In fact, there was one particular moment when Cameron asked one of the people why he thought he had a god given right to predict what would happen definitively, when this is essentially what Cameron keeps on doing.
The question about LGBT, despite the DUP being fairly minor, were legitimate. Notably, Cameron dodged it by saying he'd stick to his position on LGBT rights, while not officially ruling out any sort of deal with the DUP.
The forgetting the living wage part was quite poor on his point too, although I suppose it's decent to see a politician admit when they don't know the figures, even if it took about 5 attempts of wriggling out of the question until he did it.
He's certainly not having a good election campaign though, Miliband has the momentum right now and seems to actually be becoming a popular figure. Tories have a lot of work to do if they want to have a decent chance at forming any sort of coalition.
They can. Two bed flats in W14 on Zoopla now vary from £400k-£2.75m. That's quite a difference for one measly postcode.
http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/fl...4/west-kensington/?results_sort=highest_price
EDIT: And that's just the postcode, not the whole fecking borough which has some cheaper bits.
Most measly postcodes in London have massive differentials, I used to live in a four-bedroom mansion flat in W14 that I was offered for £40K - far too pricey!