The SNP's very Scottish conspiracy...
As its supporters insist that MI5 rigged the Scottish referendum, voting SNP now requires faith in the unbelievable, says Andrew Gilligan
By Andrew Gilligan
19 Apr 2015
With its tearooms and old-fashioned shops, the attractive town of Dunoon, in Argyll, seems to epitomise Scottish moderation and common sense. But alongside the window displays of country wear and fresh mackerel, there are some much weirder goods on offer.
In the front window of Dunoon’s
Scottish National Party campaign base, alongside posters and canvassing information for the local SNP candidate, Brendan O’Hara, they’re displaying for sale a new pamphlet which describes in detail how MI5 and
John McTernan, chief of staff to Jim Murphy, the Scottish Labour leader, “rigged” last year’s independence referendum by creating thousands of fake No ballot papers.
The authors, nationalist activists from Argyll, first suspected the existence of the “McTernan Plan”, as they call it, on the night of the count. Their “extensive canvass returns” had left them “confident of success” in the area, but when the postal vote came in they were “astounded” to discover it was 70-30 against independence. What’s more, the postal voter turnout in Argyll was 96.4 per cent. “We had never before heard of such a high return in any democratic election,” they said.
The activists’ suspicions hardened when they learned that Mr McTernan, then a Labour commentator, had appeared on TV four days before the referendum saying that “postal votes are running very strongly towards No.”
“I couldn’t work out how it was possible to interfere on any scale with the postal ballot,” Andy Anderson, one of the authors, told the Telegraph. “You need the ballot paper number, the signature and date of birth of the voter. Then it occurred to me. All that information went into a computer – and who’s at the other end of the computer in London? MI5.”
Later this week, the Dunoon SNP campaign hub (officially the “Forward shop” and shared with the wider Yes movement) will host a public meeting to promote the conspiracy theory.
As Mr Anderson’s pamphlet puts it: “MI5 can produce the required number of ballot papers, of the right paper with the right local authority stamp…[and] even the correct signature from the computer image. All they need to do then is get their own staff to deliver the papers to the correct post boxes in the correct areas of Scotland, and bingo, the job is done.
“The Prime Minister can be informed that the objective has been achieved and McTernan can be tipped off in time for him to appear on the BBC, four days before the ballot boxes are opened, and tell us which way the postal vote is going.”
Rather more likely, of course, is that the Yes campaign’s canvas returns were wrong. The overall No vote in Argyll and Bute was a convincing 58.5 per cent, on an 88.2 per cent turnout, with the vast majority of votes cast in person. Postal voters are often more conservative than in-person voters, since they are older and more rural. And postal vote turnouts are always higher than overall turnouts; those motivated enough to apply for a postal vote are also more motivated to use it.
Mr McTernan’s foreknowledge is easily explained, too: though the postal votes were not actually counted until referendum night, they were opened beforehand, with campaign representatives present and able to peek at where people put their crosses. The No margin of victory was almost 400,000 votes, so MI5 would have had to visit an awful lot of postboxes.
Dunoon is far from the only place in Nat-world where this stuff is taken seriously. Robin McAlpine, a leading figure in the independence movement, told a fringe meeting at last month’s SNP conference that MI5 had “tried to, at worst, subvert democracy up here” during the referendum – though did not allege that the result was rigged, unlike SNP delegates at the meeting.
During the campaign itself Jim Sillars, the former SNP deputy leader, said it would be “naïve” to imagine that MI5 was not “taking a role.” Official Electoral Commission research after the result found that 42 per cent of Yes voters believed at least some vote-rigging had taken place.
Yet this is merely the most extreme example of how being a Scottish nationalist often seems to involve believing things which aren’t true. The SNP leadership doesn’t blame the spooks for referendum defeat (Alex Salmond prefers the BBC.) But a huge – and hugely-successful – part of their pitch at this election is that they are more progressive and anti-austerity than Labour. The evidence for this, however, is almost as scarce as an MI5 fingerprint in the referendum result.
The SNP has been the government of Scotland since 2007, with complete control over health, education and most other domestic policy, except welfare. It receives an annual block grant from Whitehall, guaranteed by the famous Barnett formula to be about 20 per cent higher per head than in England, and decides how it is divided up. It doesn’t have to follow the departmental spending choices made south of the border – and it hasn’t. In key areas, the
government of Scotland has been significantly meaner than heartless, Tory-dominated England.
Between 2007/8, the SNP’s first year in power, and 2012/13, the latest available year, health spending in Scotland rose by 15.5 per cent, substantially slower than the rise in health spending in England (22.8 per cent) over the same period. Education spending in Scotland rose by 3.8 per cent, in real terms actually a cut and again far less generous than in England, where spending rose by 12.2 per cent to broadly keep pace with inflation.
In order to maintain its flagship policy of free university tuition while making real-terms cuts, the SNP has slashed the number of students in further education – sixth-form colleges, vocational training and the like – by more than a third. Maintenance grants for poorer university students have also been cut.
Since FE students are mainly working-class, and FE is the traditional bridge for the disadvantaged, the cuts will worsen Scotland’s already bad record of getting poorer students to university.
Scotland’s “free” universities are significantly more socially exclusive than those of wicked, Right-wing England, where the policy is to charge the middle classes but target help on poorer students.
“Free tuition in Scotland is the perfect middle-class, feelgood policy,” says Lucy Hunter Blackburn, author of a recent report for the Centre for Research in Education Inclusion. “It’s superficially universal, but in fact it benefits the better-off most, and is funded by pushing the poorest students further and further into debt.”
Scotland’s actual spending priorities have been rather Thatcherite. Health and education rises have been held down to protect spending on enterprise and the new, SNP-controlled national police force, which has been flexing its biceps with massive increases in armed patrolling and stop-and-search. In its first year, Police Scotland stopped and searched 500,000 people, a number equivalent to a tenth of the country’s entire population.
As the former Labour MP Brian Wilson puts it, “ask supporters of the Scottish Government to name a single measure of the past eight years which redistributed wealth from the better to less well off and you can expect one of two responses. The first is silence followed by a rapid change of subject. The second is a list of measures which actually, whether they understand it or not, moved scarce resources in precisely the opposite direction such as tuition fees and the council tax freeze.”
Yet, for now at least, none of this appears to matter in the slightest. Educated and serious people believe that the referendum was stolen. Nationalist canvassers are blitzing council estates like payday loan companies, promising goodies up front but forgetting to mention the years of repayments. Doe-eyed members of the Scottish chattering classes embrace the SNP as progressive. True and relevant facts to the contrary are automatically dismissed as the lies of the Westminster elite.
As political scientists will tell you, voting anywhere is seldom a wholly rational choice, but is governed by people’s emotions and feelings. In Scotland this spring, national emotion appears to be sweeping all before it, and the SNP has been able to create an impregnable parallel reality. Enormous chunks of what was once a sceptical, questioning country are about to take part in mainland Britain’s first faith-based election.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gen...760/The-SNPs-very-Scottish-conspiracy....html
Nicola Sturgeon: "It is with great pleasure that i introduce to you Scotland's Minister for Information, please give a warm welcome to...Alex Jones."