Ones like yesterday's Survation, which is projecting Labour 35-Tories 31 or Panelbase 37-31 (which I think gives Labour an overall majority). The whole Tory campaign is in the shit, which is why they're delaying the manifesto launch.
UK General Election 2015 | Conservatives win with an overall majority
- Thread starter langster
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Its the poll of the polls on may2015.com, Guardian and BBC that has Labour ahead by 4 points. The Guardian even did a feature on it titled "The day the polls changed".
It is the oppositions job to attack the government on its failures and highlight what they would do different so you can't really consider that negative. The government on the other hand, rather base their campaign on highlighting their achievements and where they're looking to go next are basing it on attacking labour's past record and mostly Miliband himself. Some of the stuff that has come out is plain lies and that's just a sign of desparation. That says to voters look we've been in power 5 years, we've done nothing noteworthy but give us another 5 as Labour did worse. Their campaign have historically been negative and focused on attacking the opposition directly rather than their policies and that's not something voters relate too, especially young voters. If more and more young people voted, the tories would face heavy defeats all over.
They're even propping up the SNP which does nothing other then guarantee that they will not be in power as they will never support tories.
In fairness whilst Labour seem to have regained the edge over the past week or so, there's still a month to go and the gap will shrink and grow a few times more. The problem for the tories is they need to be about 5% ahead, which they're nowhere near right now whilst running out of both time and ideas.
If the election was next week I think Labour would win a straight majority. Long way to go and the Tories can't keep forking it up can they?
The numbers I've seen seem to indicate it is very, very close with the Tories winning about 10 more seats than labour.
Even when the Tories are ahead, they'd be behind on seats.
I think I hope that the Tories win the popular vote but Labour get the most MPs.. Add in a three way coalition government and that will help put the second nail in the coffin of FPTP
I think I hope that the Tories win the popular vote but Labour get the most MPs.. Add in a three way coalition government and that will help put the second nail in the coffin of FPTP
Recent polls (yesterday) show Labour with a 35-31% or 37-31% lead, which translates into a clear Labour majority.
While I don't agree with the assessment that Labour would get a straight majority at the moment, they're definitely going to get more seats than the Tories unless the polls really start swinging in the Tories favour.
If you believe the Survation and Panelbase polls they have a clear majority (and that's before the Fallon clusterfook). Long way to go though - don't drop the ball..
I'm sure you've seen this:
I find them funny because it's not far from the truth...
I find them funny because it's not far from the truth...
Unfortunately that clusterfeck scenario went out the window with the SNP surge, it's done a good job of blunting Labour's edge with the electoral system.
Going by the May2015 site estimator, if the result is a 33% tie they both get 272 seats, whilst a 1% lead for either party results in a lead of around 10 seats accordingly. But when you get up to a lead of 35-32 either way, the tories would only have 20 seats more if they were winners (and no real coalition/minority options), whereas Labour would have 40 more in their scenario (and even the potential to avoid a deal with the SNP by going with Lib Dems and others).
Majority of votes, but that won't automatically put them in a position where they win a majority of seats. The Survation poll had them just missing out on a majority when it was transferred to seat projections, and that's the second most optimistic one after the Panelbase poll. If they start pulling away in a number of the others though, I'd give them a better shot at getting a majority.
They'd also be a lot more likely to get a majority if they could claw back some lost ground in Scotland, since they seem likely to lose 30+ seats here. Because of the system, they'd only need a swing of 5% or so to significantly reduce how many seats the SNP will get, although that seems fairly unlikely at the moment.
If I were a Scottish Tory I would be absolutely furious with Cameron and central office. It's like they have completely abandoned them, to do nothing but discuss their opponents.
Well the (biased) Torygraph had them 100 seats ahead.
I was referring to Nick talking about Labour's negative campaigning, since Labour in Scotland has been a prime example of that, even if their general campaign across the UK has been more positive than the Tories.
And there's not really much Cameron can do up here. Tories aren't well-liked, and they're just not going to get many seats because of the system. Scottish leader Davidson is a very good politician though.
Is there such a thing as a Tory Scot? I think the only Scottish Tory voter I can think of is Duncan Banatyne
True, although to be fair that's based on more of the most optimistic polls from Labour's perspective at the moment. If there's a number which replicate those ones in the lead-up to the election, I'd give Labour a decent shot at a majority.
Is there such a thing as a Tory Scot? I think the only Scottish Tory voter I can think of is Duncan Banatyne
They get something like 15% of the vote usually, and their Scottish branch leader is very good. While they're not popular, they're probably more common than you'd expect.
Apparently he's back to Labour: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-backing-Labour-just-week-coming-Cameron.htmlIs there such a thing as a Tory Scot? I think the only Scottish Tory voter I can think of is Duncan Banatyne
Not without a swift change in the Scottish polls they wouldn't.
I don't see Labour winning a majority.
Well based on the less favourable of those polls (Survation) the seat count is 328 v 234
How many seats does that have Labour winning north of the border?
Dunno, but 328 gives you a majority.
I'm just doubting the translation of polls to seats is accurate given Scotland will completely defy the standard swing assumptions and is key to any Labour majority.
Well I assume the Torygraph projection isn't doing Labour any favours.
Labour can win a majority without the Scottish seats, they'd just need about an 8 point lead nationwide which is somewhat unlikely. The most optimistic goal I'd think would be to break through 300 seats. Given the loss of around 40 seats in Scotland, it would be a strong result.
On a side note around that, is a shame it looks like Douglas Alexander will lose his seat.
On a side note around that, is a shame it looks like Douglas Alexander will lose his seat.
39 conservatives on here? really? 
If the referendum is anything to go by then we have to assume that the data in Scotland is somewhat skewed. YouGov in their latest poll have put the SNP at an all time high of 49%. In a poll 2 weeks before the referendum they polled 47% YES and 45% NO. The result was 55% NO and 45% YES. There is a massive margin between the poll and the results so they must be doing something wrong up there.
39 conservatives on here? really?
I'm quite concerned by the 36 that are not voting and would really like to hear their reasoning.
That was one poll in the referendum campaign, the rest pointed to a No win. The data from Scotland regarding the SNP's likely performance is much more overwhelming - constituency level polls showing vast swings and all national level polls showing support in the mid 40s. They could well win 54 out of 59 seats, and will certainly get at least 40.
When you look at the history of people fighting for a vote and how in some countries you have to risk it to put an X you do wonder
I'll probably vote for the Greens, but if they weren't running in my constituency I wouldn't bother voting. The options are dreadful and even though I agree with a fair amount of the Greens policies, no one on the political spectrum really represents me. I assume that's one of the reasons people aren't voting. Another reason is that whoever you vote for, it won't count towards anything, especially if you live in a safe seat. And the difference between Labour and the Tories is massively eroded so, I mean, what's the point?
All the polls within a month to the referendum date were on a 1-2% difference with YouGov showing balance the other way, the truth was that the vote was not close at all, there was about 10% in it or about 400k votes. If half that amount is in play in this election then every single seat has the potential to go one way or another.
Well you could argue that under Blair but not under Ed. He's Mr 'I want fair'.
This the same Ed that's been giving anti-immigration speeches for the past few years? As much as he's trying to take it to non-doms and the like his chancellor is still talking about the cutting the deficit rather than spending money where it should be spent. Actually, even if their economic policy took a very big swing to the left the anti-immigration stuff is enough for me to feck them off, I can't be pulling the ladder from non-EU citizens now that I'm here.
Nope - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum (Though there was one more "yes" poll than I thought, with a highly anomalous 6 point lead). Compare with - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-voting-intention-2 (about a month out of date but nothing's changed since).
Please forgive the direct question, genuinely interested as to what's your background? My wife is a non EU citizen in the UK and we see absolutely nothing from any party that would help, or hinder us to be honest.
Well you know it's not Ed's real position but he has to be pragmatic. My sister tells me he's being too left-wing and not pragmatic enough. I think he's playing it brilliantly right now.
You do realise that if all those people who don't bother voting in a "safe" seat actually got out and voted they could make that seat less and less safe and even make it change hands? That the less safe a seat is the more voters benefit from whoever their MP is as they have to be on their toes to keep their job.
Out of 45m+ registered voters only 28m actually voted in the last elections. Those 28m voters who stayed at home could elect a whole new party if they went to vote. Two even as the tories only got around 11m votes.
Safe or not everyone should turn out at the election even just to scribble something on the ballot regardless if its a vote for a party or not. If more ballots are void than there are votes for parties then this would send a strong signal that something is fundamentally wrong in politics. Most people moan and whine about it but do nothing to change it. This is wrong.