UK General Election 2015 | Conservatives win with an overall majority

[Ubik]

You'd want Labour to have all of its eggs in the SNP basket? They're falling over themselves to be a nuisance.

Either course ought to harm Labour's fortunes in England in the long run.

They're just not going to be important. SNP will be because they'll have over 30 seats, Plaid might have 5.

And the thing about Labour is that they're actually a party of the whole UK (Northern Ireland excepted), they can't just think about England alone like the Tories can.

 

[berbatrick]

All these questions about coalitions and numbers and minority governments and deals on specific laws- looks like the mother of all parliaments will be learning from their old colony India .
You should google Indian national-level politics in the 90s. It was completely unpredictable unproductive chaotic destructive fun.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

They're just not going to be important. SNP will be because they'll have over 30 seats, Plaid might have 5.

And the thing about Labour is that they're actually a party of the whole UK (Northern Ireland excepted), they can't just think about England alone like the Tories can.

The Tories remain a political force in Wales do they not?

Whilst it might be lowering for Labour to be on the SNP's leading strings, it shall be their hypocrisy over EVEL that will damage them most acutely. These will be challenging times for the union, for all that the Yes Vote failed.

 

[Sir Matt]

Cameron is related to the Kardashians? Fantastic.

 

[Mozza]

You say that but if I was on probation I wouldn't mind the extra flexibility that call centres and kiosks offer. Someone who gets a job with a ton of hours would certainly benefit from it. I'd be with you if you just complaining about so many people losing their job because of an untested system but I don't think there's much wrong with using technology to make things more efficient.

I have no problem with technology being used to make things more efficient, I don't believe you can replace a probation officer with a kiosk

 

[Member 5225]

I have no idea who will (want to) partner with the Tories....surely Govt formation by them is just unfeasible?

 

[ThierryHenry]

I've wondered this, the debates seem meaningless without them. Perhaps parliament should set a date for all manifestos to be published simultaneously?
Also, not party-political I hope, it is disgraceful that parties can claim they will reduce spending by huge amounts and yet simply refuse to tell us how before they are elected. Both as bad on this one, as far as I am aware.

Well, 712, you have to understand that we have some difficult decisions to make for the country...

I have no idea who will (want to) partner with the Tories....surely Govt formation by them is just unfeasible?

The only government I see them forming is with the Lib Dems, again. Though they'll need a boost in popularity before the election for those numbers to work.

 

[Jippy]

Labour's Chuka looking an evasive tool on Newsnight. Almost descended him and the host laughing about Labour's lack of costings.
Chuka getting laughed at for saying he can't detail cuts cos they haven't seen the books yet. Yeah ok, so no party makes spending commitments until they get into power and 'see the books'.
The guy kept muddling up his millions and billions too. Maybe a good local MP but keep him away from the sharp objects of ministry.

 

[ThierryHenry]

Labour's Chuka looking an evasive tool on Newsnight. Almost descended him and the host laughing about Labour's lack of costings.
Chuka getting laughed at for saying he can't detail cuts cos they haven't seen the books yet. Yeah ok, so no party makes spending commitments until they get into power and 'see the books'.
The guy kept muddling up his millions and billions too. Maybe a good local MP but keep him away from the sharp objects of ministry.

Never thought much of him, seems like he's been promoted above his station after the simple media hyped him up as "Britain's Obama".

 

[peterstorey]

Never thought much of him, seems like he's been promoted above his station after the simple media hyped him up as "Britain's Obama".

Chuka always strikes me as more style than substance.

 

[ThierryHenry]

Stella Creasy's the one (to look out for)

 

[Jippy]

Never thought much of him, seems like he's been promoted above his station after the simple media hyped him up as "Britain's Obama".

Wasn't it his own office amending his Wiki page to such effect?

 

[Jippy]

Chuka always strikes me as more style than substance.

I think that's a fair assessment but from speaking to work colleagues in Streatham, he is seen as a good local MP actually campaigning on local issues from what I gather.
Meant to ask you by the way, why didn't Labour ever do anything to clamp down on zero hours contracts? Why are they suddenly only an issue under the coalition?

EDIT: Remembering that Mail story that revealed 60 Labour MPs employ their own staff on zero hours contracts.

 

[Jippy]

Excuse the triple post. The Telegraph is getting the big guns out with 100 business chiefs, who employ more than half a million combined, saying 'Labour threatens the recovery'.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...ritains-recovery-say-100-business-chiefs.html

 

[peterstorey]

Meant to ask you by the way, why didn't Labour ever do anything to clamp down on zero hours contracts? Why are they suddenly only an issue under the coalition?

Because Blair was a forking Tory. The inequality gap widened across 13 years of New Labour.

 

[Jippy]

Because Blair was a forking Tory. The inequality gap widened across 13 years of New Labour.

It is a global trend though. Not sure Labour could have halted it, even if they wanted too. Domestic governments and central banks have so little control over their own economies these days, eg nothing the UK can do about falling oil prices risking deflation.

 

[HabeasC]

Excuse the triple post. The Telegraph is getting the big guns out with 100 business chiefs, who employ more than half a million combined, saying 'Labour threatens the recovery'.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...ritains-recovery-say-100-business-chiefs.html

Surprise, surprise. Rich businesspeople say you should not vote labour. All a bit predictable really.

If they had their way, everyone would be on a zero hour contract and we would have no minimum wage. Of course they are going to side against the party that will challenge their profits.

 

[Jippy]

Surprise, surprise. Rich businesspeople say you should not vote labour. All a bit predictable really.

If they had their way, everyone would be on a zero hour contract and we would have no minimum wage. Of course they are going to side against the party that will challenge their profits.

No-one can answer me about why Labour only suddenly give a shit about zero hour contracts when they are in opposition though. They are not a new thing.

 

[bishblaize]

No-one can answer me about why Labour only suddenly give a shit about zero hour contracts when they are in opposition though. They are not a new thing.

Because the climate after the economic crash is different, and what was of moderate importance before it became high importance afterwards.

 

[Jippy]

Because the climate after the economic crash is different, and what was of moderate importance before it became high importance afterwards.

Still think it's funny how that coincides with Labour not being in power. The government has at least banned the exclusivity clauses within some zero hours contracts, which is a start, I guess.

 

[peterstorey]

Surprise, surprise. Rich businesspeople say you should not vote labour. All a bit predictable really.

Ridiculous PR puff that only serves to emphasise the Tories are the party of the rich and powerful (including the media barons). Labour should respond with the Trade Unions saying don't vote Tory.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

No-one can answer me about why Labour only suddenly give a shit about zero hour contracts when they are in opposition though. They are not a new thing.

Hypocrisy and opportunism i suspect, as scruples certainly didn't appear to be much of an encumbrance the last time Labour were in power. Which isn't to say that either of these traits are particular to any political party, although some Labour supporters/MPs do have that falsely pious air about them.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Labour could raise taxes for middle-class professionals

Labour could raise taxes for hundreds of thousands of middle-class professionals after the next election by lowering the threshold for the 40p rate, Ed Balls has suggested.

In an interview the shadow chancellor repeatedly refused to rule out changing the point at which the higher rate of tax kicks in, saying he had to be "honest" with the public that there was still a £90 billion deficit to pay off.

His comments raise the prospect that Labour could lower the threshold for the 40p rate, which is currently £41,865, potentially dragging hundreds of thousands more people into it.

Over the past decade more than 1.6 million people have been dragged into the higher rate of tax, including hundreds of thousands of teachers, nurses and police officers.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...ise-taxes-for-middle-class-professionals.html

 

[SteveJ]

Guardian: Tory plan to muzzle children exposed

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

That's so 2005 Steve. The police will be putting those lampshade type collars on them next.

Daily Mail - Feral youth sport their new badge of honour.



ETA: On the other hand...and sticking to the pet theme, a UKIP councillor has probably suggested microchipping Romanians.

 

[SteveJ]

 

[saivet]

 

[SteveJ]

Hah! Even I'm not stupid enough* to let a mobile phone tell me who to vote for.


*Might be stupid enough, actually.

 

[HabeasC]

No-one can answer me about why Labour only suddenly give a shit about zero hour contracts when they are in opposition though. They are not a new thing.

You are right, they are not a new thing. However, under the tories they have become a much bigger issue.


Admittedly part of their rise to prevalence is to do with politics and the people most likely to be affected by them (women and young people) are those that overwhelming vote/are targeted by labour. However, since 2008 the number of people in 'precarious employment' has risen by over 60%. Now the number of zero hour contracts stands at 1.8m, with a 26% rise in the past year. Also the tory attempt at rectifying the issue has not made much of a change. 700,000 people still list their ZHCs as their main job.

Whilst they may affect only 3% or so of the working population (which is a very conservative number anyway, as many do not recognise that they are in a ZHC), it is a key part of why so many working people are visiting food banks and why they are also in need of benefits. In 2010, only 60,000 people were given 3 days' emergency food by Trussel Trust food banks. This number is now at 913,000, which is far far higher than it should be in a developed country and a large number of those visiting have jobs.

So ZHCs are clearly an issue that has become more important now than ever before.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Being a Eurosceptic i suppose that i am more more inclined to notice such things, however the BBC does still appear to have a pro-EU bias running through its coverage. I have heard it proposed by one correspondent that Britain would no longer trade with Europe in the event Yes vote, and another that the country would inevitably become poorer. More of a concern upon the occasion of a referendum though.

Admittedly part of their rise to prevalence is to do with politics and the people most likely to be affected by them (women and young people) are those that overwhelming vote/are targeted by labour.

Admittedly? It is simply your politically motivated assertion. What is far more plausible, particularly given the state of the economy in 2010, is that a government desperate for better numbers was prepared to take a lax approach to the labour market (much like its predecessor).

It was also stated on the BBC yesterday evening, that approximately two-thirds of those presently on ZHCs are satisfied with their current burden of work and do not wish for greater. Now of course that still leaves a significant enough minority for whom more could be done, and i'd suggest that a mandated minimum might be a worthwhile starting point.

 

[sun_tzu]

Being a Eurosceptic i suppose that i am more more inclined to notice such things, however the BBC does still appear to have a pro-EU bias running through its coverage. I have heard it proposed by one correspondent that Britain would no longer trade with Europe in the event Yes vote, and another that the country would inevitably become poorer. More of a concern upon the occasion of a referendum though.

Not sure if I saw the same thing but on the BBC I heard somebody saying almost identical to that - the bloke in question was an economist though not a BBC employee so that would presumably just be his (expert) opinion?

 

[sun_tzu]

It is a global trend though. Not sure Labour could have halted it, even if they wanted too. Domestic governments and central banks have so little control over their own economies these days, eg nothing the UK can do about falling oil prices risking deflation.

Indeed - its a bit like when people talk about how thatcher transformed the economy without taking into account the growth that occurred in America, Japan, Germany, France etc (though I'm sure some of her biggest fans would suggest she was responsible for that as well the reality is that countries pursuing different policies throughout the world all grew broadly in line with each other).

Whoever is in power for the next 5 years (probably more like 20 years) is in for a tough ride as we tend to measure our wealth / power / prestige as a country in relative rather than absolute terms and like it or not China, India, Brazil, Russia and much of South East Asia and the Middle East are going to improve standards of living for people far more than we are - their currencies will perform better relative to ours and their influence will grow relative to ours.

Its not necessarily a bad thing - some of them have had massive infrastructure / education based policies for years that it will take a generation for us to catch up to - some have natural resources and demographics on their side.

We lost our empire status of pre-eminence probably 100 years ago in reality with WW1 and as time ticks on we will loose our status more and more - trying to cling onto it in the face of geo-political and marco economic forces is a fools game - we should just be focusing on what we can influence and trying to structure an economy / society best placed to react to these forces rather than try and pretend we have any real influence - sadly the reality is probably not a vote winner.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Not sure if I saw the same thing but on the BBC I heard somebody saying almost identical to that - the bloke in question was an economist though not a BBC employee so that would presumably just be his (expert) opinion?

Both of the examples i heard were from the radio, the former on Fivelive and the latter case Radio 4. The potential for a near term economic impact is real enough (particularly without the necessary planning by politicians), however it is when staff of the BBC speak in absolutes that i have misgivings. The idea that we wouldn't trade with Europe is a complete nonsense, and that line came from a business correspondent as i recall.



Have any of you ever walked into a polling station with the set aim of spoiling your ballot paper?

 

[sun_tzu]

Both of the examples i heard were from the radio, the former on Fivelive and the latter case Radio 4. The potential for a near term economic impact is real enough (particularly without the necessary planning by politicians), however it is when staff of the BBC speak in absolutes that i have misgivings. The idea that we wouldn't trade with Europe is a complete nonsense, and that line came from a business correspondent as i recall.



Have any of you ever walked into a polling station with the set aim of spoiling your ballot paper?

I agree that trade would of course take place... equally though those that expect that trade to exist without any barriers are as naive as those who think trade will stop.

As for walking into a polling station to ruin a ballot...I wouldnt bother I would not waste my time in going there in the first place

I usually have apostal vote though as I work away a lot and if there was a none of the above option I would most probably have ticked that a few times

 

[ThierryHenry]

Looking at some bets on the election;

SNP getting over 43.5 seats at 10/11 looks a bargain to me. Beating 50 wouldn't be a shock. Anyone spotted anything else of good value?

 

[ThierryHenry]

Tories getting 276-300 seats - 7/4

Labour getting over 268.5 seats - 10/11

Labour getting 276-300 seats - 23/10

SNP getting 40-49 seats - 7/4

Tories most seats, Ed Miliband PM at next Queens Speech - 5/1

Some decent ones in there IMO.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

One of the Fivelive presenters has just interviewed a make-up artist as part of their debate coverage; do you think we can put the genie back in the bottle? lol

I agree that trade would of course take place... equally though those that expect that trade to exist without any barriers are as naive as those who think trade will stop.

Well i don't think we'd be walking away from a free trade agreement and some additional economic opt-ins (assuming an amicable separation ), the debate would centre around those remaining optional extras i suspect. Of course this is all purely hypothetical, and particularly so if Labour win the election.

As for walking into a polling station to ruin a ballot...I wouldnt bother I would not waste my time in going there in the first place

I usually have apostal vote though as I work away a lot and if there was a none of the above option I would most probably have ticked that a few times

Presently, there are five confirmed candidates for my constituency, and i'm not sure i'd feel entirely comfortable casting my vote with any of them. I do feel obliged to take part however.

 

[sun_tzu]

ed milliband to be pm looks a decent bet (6/4 at coral)
not so much that labour will surge to a victory (though they do seem to be heading up in the polls)
rather that the libs would probably back him and the jocks and the taffs have basically said they will do anything to stop the tories getting in power.
the greens may not get a seet anyway but if they did again they would seem to be more likely to back ed over cameron
Im just not sure I can see the conservatives able to stitch together a majority - cant see ukip and the libs being held together in coalition for example.

It might also be a good bet for a second election in 2015 as any coalition looks flimsy as it is likely to have 3 or more members pulling in different directions - (4/1 at ladbrooks)

 

[sun_tzu]

Well i don't think we'd be walking away from a free trade agreement and some additional economic opt-ins (assuming an amicable separation ), the debate would centre around those remaining optional extras i suspect. Of course this is all purely hypothetical, and particularly so if Labour win the election.
.

Im not sure the other states would vote for that - afterall the transatlantic trade agreement is almost agreed and the china one is quote far advanced - I cant see that we could say we don't want to be in Europe and then the EU members vote (which they would have to) to let us stay in all the trade agreements - particularly the american one and the chinese one they are negotiating. (and I certainly don't see the Chinese negotiating a separate one with us - the USA may but it would probably take some time and involve some extra concessions on the UK side)

I work for a European company though we undertake projects worldwide and we currently base USA and Chinese operations out of the UK based on the fact that the Americans speak English and I can speak Mandarin / Cantonese as well.

We already have plans to shift our USA and China based projects out of the UK at the end of our financial year and operate them from Holland / France respectively to mitigate the risk of the UK leaving Europe in a referendum - this will result in many millions of tax not going to the UK treasury and instead going to Holland / France and I suspect if we are this far advanced in planning we wont be the only international operation eyeing things with caution.

We will probably move all the African projects we are doing as well (we work for companies like Rio Tinto and BP or typically governments directly helping design big nuclear / mining / petro chemical projects) out of the UK as well and into Amsterdam and have started to quote in $ or Euros for a lot of international projects.

In truth we are so far down the planning stage the likelihood is that even if Labour win the election we will move a large amount of our work to foreign offices.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Im not sure the other states would vote for that - afterall the transatlantic trade agreement is almost agreed and the china one is quote far advanced - I cant see that we could say we don't want to be in Europe and then the EU members vote (which they would have to) to let us stay in all the trade agreements - particularly the american one and the chinese one they are negotiating.

I work for a European company though we undertake projects worldwide and we currently base USA and Chinese operations out of the UK based on the fact that the Americans speak English and I can speak Mandarin / Cantonese as well.

We already have plans to shift our USA and China based projects out of the UK at the end of our financial year and operate them from Holland / France respectively to mitigate the risk of the UK leaving Europe in a referendum - this will result in many millions of tax not going to the UK treasury and instead going to Holland / France and I suspect if we are this far advanced in planning we wont be the only international operation eyeing things with caution.

We will probably move all the African projects we are doing as well (we work for companies like Rio Tinto and BP or typically governments directly helping design big nuclear / mining / petro chemical projects) out of the UK as well and into Amsterdam and have started to quote in $ or Euros for a lot of international projects.

In truth we are so far down the planning stage the likelihood is that even if Labour win the election we will move a large amount of our work to foreign offices.

Initially at least, i was alluding to a trade agreement with European countries.

I do struggle however, to understand why companies should have any interest in whether the UK taxes go toward a fleet of drones for the EU or its diplomatic service.