Blair?
UK General Election 2015 | Conservatives win with an overall majority
- Thread starter langster
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He was one of the young, appealing types when he became leader of the Labour party.
I think most in Labour would be happy to spend the next five years under Alan Johnson given the likelihood of winning outright. Give the new lot time to grow up a bit. One thing to note though - If Liz Kendall won and became PM in five years, Greg Davies from the Inbetweeners would be living in 10 Downing Street.
I really hope that isn't true... Can't stand him.
EDIT - I am loving the idea of Greg Davies as the PM's spouse though.
How so? Genuinely interested. Related to his time under Blair/Brown?
Labour are saying that 20,000 people have joined the party since polling day, which means that ~10% of the party membership is now comprised of people who joined in the last 4 days.
Yeah I know quite a few people who have joined. Probably a good time, nobody will be asking you to go leaflet bombing any time soon.
Nope. Entirely personal. Comes across slightly sociopathic, at times, when I see him interviewed/smiling relentlessly on This Week.
I think they could do a lot worse than have Alan Johnson hold fort for a while.
I'm about as dyed in the wool Tory as you can get, even I have a lot of respect for Alan Johnson. Wouldn't vote for him but I think a lot of wavering moderates would.
Indeed, when you look at every candidate and think "not ready", "too much baggage" or "called Tristram" then you have to wonder if this is the group that's going to win 50+ seats from the Tories. Still, he won't do it so it's time for them to step up a bit, I suppose.
******* Harman is already holding the fort until a new leader is chosen.
To be fair, Churchill got smashed at the elections in his own world and polled a quarter of a million votes less than Labour in 1951.
But totally agree with what your saying - we are firmly in "look the part or you will never win" territory, when it comes to the two main parties. I'd say the same about the Lib Dems but with 8 MPs, they don't have much choice.
That's why I liked Ed, because he didn't look the part at all.
Heh, Carswell seemingly not happy with Farage's unresignation. UKIP may end up with nearly 4,000,000 votes and no seats!
He was one of the ones who was originally with Conservative and defected, right?
Yup. What's he said about Farage?
Not so much what he has said, more what he hasn't - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...aker-refuses-to-discuss-farage-unresignation-
He'll probably stay given he was on Newsnight just a few days ago talking about how he thought the Tories were far too corporatist and dictatorial, but he's definitely got a different way of thinking about UKIP than Farage and would rather not focus on immigration so much. I wonder if he was one of the ones that said something to the guy writing the book about Farage... Probably not that dumb.
He'll probably stay given he was on Newsnight just a few days ago talking about how he thought the Tories were far too corporatist and dictatorial, but he's definitely got a different way of thinking about UKIP than Farage and would rather not focus on immigration so much. I wonder if he was one of the ones that said something to the guy writing the book about Farage... Probably not that dumb.
I know a few of the Tory backbenchers who have said the same.
On a separate note, it's been dispiriting watching the lack of grace shown in the days since the election by both those unhappy with the election result and some of the celebrating Tories. Seems needlessly tasteless for the 1922 Committee meeting today to read out and cheer each one of the Lib Dem seats they took after 5 constructive years built on professional respect. Then I passed a reasonably, but no particularly, nice car last night in Soho which had a smashed windscreen and 'feck off back to Eton' stickers stuck scattered on it. Hardly inspiring stuff on either side.
Me neither. For all his poor upbringing and postman years he's far too right-wing these days. He's ruled himself out in any event.
Who do you think Pete?
If Andy Burnham gets it they will go nowhere at all. Yvette Cooper might do ok but not sure she can bring people together enough.
To me, the most capable candidates (Dan Jarvis, David Miliband) have already ruled themselves out.
Tough years for Labour. Maybe they do have to take a punt on Chuka - would be brave but might serve them best.
If Andy Burnham gets it they will go nowhere at all. Yvette Cooper might do ok but not sure she can bring people together enough.
To me, the most capable candidates (Dan Jarvis, David Miliband) have already ruled themselves out.
Tough years for Labour. Maybe they do have to take a punt on Chuka - would be brave but might serve them best.
In my opinion 2020 is going to be pretty un-winnable for Labour, unless we see a second global crisis or some seriously unfortunate global event that bombs the Conservatives approval ratings. Most of the best Labour candidates seem to be ruling themselves out, possibly because they are targeting an election they have a good chance of winning (2025).
Can see the likes of David Miliband and Dan Jarvis running after someone like Umunna is the fall guy next time round. Obviously that's looking far into the future but just the feeling I get.
Can see the likes of David Miliband and Dan Jarvis running after someone like Umunna is the fall guy next time round. Obviously that's looking far into the future but just the feeling I get.
Yes it ought to be an easier time to be in government now than at the last election, in theory. The economy has some signs of life. What happens in Europe/Scotland might get a bit interesting.
Not having the Lib Dems as a scape goat might hurt them. Might see some of those votes go back to the Lib Dems in 2020 - I'll be interested to see how these sorts of voters react to things like the fox hunting ban being overturned, the human rights bill being abolished, the EU referendum.
Not to mention the people the Tories will be infighting with this time around will be their own party.
Economy wise they are on to a winner - depressingly (and understandably) that seems to be all people care about at the moment. Things might change though.
Not to mention the people the Tories will be infighting with this time around will be their own party.
Economy wise they are on to a winner - depressingly (and understandably) that seems to be all people care about at the moment. Things might change though.
The Tories have shown during the previous term that they're far from a safe pair of hands when it comes to delivery. They'll score plenty more own goals between now and 2020.
Of course thats no use to Labour if they cant even put a decent team out. Even if their new leader ups his/her game, I don't see a viable shadow cabinet forming in the next 2 years.
Of course thats no use to Labour if they cant even put a decent team out. Even if their new leader ups his/her game, I don't see a viable shadow cabinet forming in the next 2 years.
Not sure why people think the Tories are going to walk 2020 too.
The austerity bubble will burst when people realise that living standards are falling inversely proportional to austerity measures, and the middle classes will come to the shock realisation that they're not better off economically under the Tories as the media would have duped them into thinking. Throw in the fox hunting, Human rights act repeal and the EU referendum and we're going to see a lot of disillusioned swing voters who opted for the Tories.
A centrist Labour candidate will have a strong chance IMO, the biggest threat will come from the progressive vote being split amongst a Lib Dem resurgence (5 years would be too soon) and the increasing prominence of the Greens (but FPTP will ensure they'll be limited to a few seats at the very best).
The austerity bubble will burst when people realise that living standards are falling inversely proportional to austerity measures, and the middle classes will come to the shock realisation that they're not better off economically under the Tories as the media would have duped them into thinking. Throw in the fox hunting, Human rights act repeal and the EU referendum and we're going to see a lot of disillusioned swing voters who opted for the Tories.
A centrist Labour candidate will have a strong chance IMO, the biggest threat will come from the progressive vote being split amongst a Lib Dem resurgence (5 years would be too soon) and the increasing prominence of the Greens (but FPTP will ensure they'll be limited to a few seats at the very best).
Ditto, I think he is a decent, genuine bloke too.
2020 will be tough. Need 50 seats direct from the tories just to draw level, 100 for a small majority, unless scotland gets tired of the nationalists. And the tories will put through the boundary review that gets them about 30 extra seats.
There will be a new leader too. Cameron is definitely at the more likable end of the Tory scale IMO. George Osborne will not come across anywhere near as well as their leader, for example.
What do you make of Cameron's 'blue collar Conservatism'? Looks like he is remaining centre right for now and even trying to reach out to traditional Labour supporters!
The Liberal Democrats are contemplating a name change i hear, ironic seeing as Gordon Brown often used to abbreviate the party's name as a means of insult. The Orange Bookers will be taking a back seat for a little while you'd suspect.
Seeing as they did ignore her question and only spoke about the evils of nationalism, it amounts to the same from her point of view.
There were some noteworthy rebellions IIRC (one such being record breaking i believe), although most of them did have their origins in the EU.
Seeing as they did ignore her question and only spoke about the evils of nationalism, it amounts to the same from her point of view.
There were some noteworthy rebellions IIRC (one such being record breaking i believe), although most of them did have their origins in the EU.
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I suspect he's looked at the entirely unexpected rise in working class support for UKIP and figured he'd like some of that.
I'd go for Yvette Cooper, Chuka too smarmy Blairite for me, Burnham is a No.2 not a leader. I think Ed should have stayed on.
Ed should have stayed on? After defeat?Yvette Cooper doesn't have the image to be Prime Minister. She's too plain and comes across as being a bit too soft, sort of like a pleasant and reassuring guidance counselor. I agree with you on Chuka Umunna - definitely a smarmy Blairite character who will be seen as too polished and slippery by the electorate.
My ideal choice would be David Miliband. If he were an MP, he would be standing head and shoulders above the pack. The practical difficulties in getting him back into Parliament in a timely fashion are pretty much impossible to maneuver around, though. It would have to be a case of somebody else becoming the leader and resigning to make way for him at some point in the next Parliament after he wins a seat.
He's 14/1 with PaddyPower, so might be worth a flutter. David Lammy at 18/1 could be an outsider too.
I'm close to being in that boat myself. I voted Labour last week, but the vote was for my local MP as opposed to any great confidence in the party, its cabinet and its policies.
If a leadership candidate can demonstrate a willingness to shift towards the centre and identify with what the electorate really is then I, and I suspect the people that have recently joined, will be pushing for that kind of change within the party.
Some may argue that it's a shift towards a Conservative vote but that's the reality of the 21st century electorate. Labour has to appeal to the middle classes.
Ed staying on!
I take it that you are not fond of Labour adopting a more central position?
I kind of agree on all the criticisms of the front runners. Even David Miliband is a privileged posh boy and not what the party needs at the moment I don't think.
I would still go for Burnham.
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He's still the best candidate - it was structurally very difficult for Labour to win whoever was leader with 50 seats gone in Scotland and another 45 gifted to the Tories by the Lib Dem collapse in the shires.
There's no way Ed could have stayed on, not after that.