UK General Election 2015 | Conservatives win with an overall majority

[langster]

Handguns are already legal in parts of the UK.

As @DiseaseOfTheAge said, only really in Northern Ireland.

Anyway, it's a bizarre stance from Farage. There is no love for hand guns amongst the electorate, nor amongst any experts in anything but hand gun sales.

It is a bizarre stance for sure, however I don't think it is unexpected. He is showing his true colours, the more support he gets, or should I say the more publicity that he craves so much, the more arrogant he is becoming. It's clear to see what he is all about from this recent comment and the previous ones about having an insurance led health service.

I just hope that he continues to show his true intentions, and eventually with enough rope he will hang himself.

 

[Ubik]

What's definitely noticeable in the above poll is that the second most popular option is "won't be voting". And those are just the ones that felt like coming in here to say it. Something very wrong with the system at present.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Top Labour figure dumps Ed Miliband for Ukip

What's definitely noticeable in the above poll is that the second most popular option is "won't be voting". And those are just the ones that felt like coming in here to say it. Something very wrong with the system at present.

Only up to a point, as were the non-voters to actually exert themselves politically they cold either form new parties or greater influence the established ones. People will complain about their local authority for example, but then come such elections we see turnout of 20-30%.

 

[Ubik]

Top Labour figure dumps Ed Miliband for Ukip




Only up to a point, as were the non-voters to actually exert themselves politically they cold either form new parties or greater influence the established ones. People will complain about their local authority for example, but then come such elections we see turnout of 20-30%.

Good riddance to Yeo. On your point about including themselves, that seems a bit wishful and goes against normal experience. The last one that was actually new and made an impact was Labour, a century ago. UKIP have come closest since and will get a decent amount to vote for them, but still win only a handful of seats to show for it come May. Turnout will hover around the 60% mark again. Not many people enthusiastically support the only two parties with a chance of forming the next government. It's a stretch to say the system is working as a means of adequately transferring the popular will.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Church leaders getting involved again. If there is a god and he answers your prayers why not get on your knees, in your empty church, stick your two thousand year old moral pamphlet for illiterate peasant farmers in your hand and practice your belief. You don't own the moral high ground you disown it whenever it contradicts doctrine and if you really believed in it you don't need the politicians, you can call on a higher power. I really wish these self important cnuts would just feck off.

 

[peterstorey]

Well it did have the effect of illustrating that the Tories have no moral compass

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Church leaders getting involved again. If there is a god and he answers your prayers why not get on your knees, in your empty church, stick your two thousand year old moral pamphlet for illiterate peasant farmers in your hand and practice your belief. You don't own the moral high ground you disown it whenever it contradicts doctrine and if you really believed in it you don't need the politicians, you can call on a higher power. I really wish these self important cnuts would just feck off.

I wouldn't say you're wrong, but that's a nice rant.

 

[DOTA]

Their main point was pretty much 'Jesus wouldn't vote UKIP'. Which is a fair one.

 

[Cheesy]

Labour and the Tories giving the whole line about how "A vote for the SNP/UKIP is a vote for the Tories/Labour respectively." Are they so shite that they basically have to tell people to tactical vote for them? Both have been peddling this line for ages, and it's getting tiresome.

It's especially tiresome with the Labour/SNP thing because a vote for the SNP doesn't really mean a vote for the Tories: it's likely to be a hung parliament, and someone who would vote SNP has an interest in doing so because it then means the SNP would have an interest in doing so. What don't Labour understand about that?

 

[Ubik]

Labour and the Tories giving the whole line about how "A vote for the SNP/UKIP is a vote for the Tories/Labour respectively." Are they so shite that they basically have to tell people to tactical vote for them? Both have been peddling this line for ages, and it's getting tiresome.

It's especially tiresome with the Labour/SNP thing because a vote for the SNP doesn't really mean a vote for the Tories: it's likely to be a hung parliament, and someone who would vote SNP has an interest in doing so because it then means the SNP would have an interest in doing so. What don't Labour understand about that?

They aren't going to say the opposite, they want to form governments on their own so naturally don't want rivals gaining their core voters. It does make less sense from Labour's point as the tories won't take any seats from the squabble, but it's bad politically for Labour to be seen to rely on nationalist MPs in government. They both still think in two-party terms, even though we're now a multiparty system.

 

[evra]

I notice the UKIP vote has dropped. Someone has changed their vote.

I wonder if that is because Farage now wants to legalise handgun ownership in the UK?

About 9 years ago I was speaking to a few friends from another website, we had been laughing and joking about Sarah Palin and how completely batshit she is, and also discussing how mental people are for supporting her despite her catalogue of feck ups and lack of intelligence and seriously far right statements and policy ideas. A couple of mates from the US said it wasn't really funny when you look at it properly and even the slightest possibility of her getting elected as VP is a truly frightening prospect. We all agreed it was highly unlikely but we conceded it was scary the amount of people that were behind her. Win or lose it was still scary because she had supporters who actually agreed with her and lapped up every word she said.

I am starting to feel the same as my friends from the US. Worried!

Are you saying Farage lacks intelligence? Politically speaking he's a borderline genius, nobody else could have done what he has done with UKIP. Palin is an absolute cretin, it's incredibly unfair to compare him to her. I don't agree with some of his policy decisions but you cannot deny he's a very canny operator.

 

[Dion]

Political genius He's been plugging away at UKIP for the best part of 2 decades and has finally struck lucky with a recession followed by an incompetent Tory government hemorrhaging votes.

 

[Untied]

Labour and the Tories giving the whole line about how "A vote for the SNP/UKIP is a vote for the Tories/Labour respectively." Are they so shite that they basically have to tell people to tactical vote for them? Both have been peddling this line for ages, and it's getting tiresome.

It's especially tiresome with the Labour/SNP thing because a vote for the SNP doesn't really mean a vote for the Tories: it's likely to be a hung parliament, and someone who would vote SNP has an interest in doing so because it then means the SNP would have an interest in doing so. What don't Labour understand about that?

We desperately need single transferable vote

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

A disgruntled Labour supporter who confronted Ed Miliband during a visit to a factory in Lancashire said that party has "lost a lot of its values" and no longer represents the working class.

Peter Baldwin, an aircraft electrician at BAE systems, told The Telegraph that Mr Miliband sounds like a "public schoolboy" and is not what he would expect of a Labour leader.

Mr Baldwin confronted Mr Miliband during an interview with the BBC about his failure to offer a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union.

He is now considering voting for Ukip in protest, and said that many of his colleagues and friends are considering doing the same.

He said that mainstream politicians are failing to address the issue of immigrants coming to working class areas like Lancashire and taking the minimum wage jobs "where your wife used to work or your son might have got when he left school".

Full article :: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...-Miliband-sounds-like-a-public-schoolboy.html

Part of me wanted to feel some sympathy for Ed here, but then i reminded myself the much of the above are problems of Labour's own creation. For years it has fostered this daft mindset wherein 'public schoolboy' is viewed in the pejorative, and now it's being thrown back in their face. The party's continued obstinacy toward the notion of a referendum only shows them to be fearful hyporcrites.

Has there been any analysis of constituencies in which UKIP might deprive Labour of the win? They came a strong second in a recent by-election as i recall...

 

[langster]

Are you saying Farage lacks intelligence? Politically speaking he's a borderline genius, nobody else could have done what he has done with UKIP. Palin is an absolute cretin, it's incredibly unfair to compare him to her. I don't agree with some of his policy decisions but you cannot deny he's a very canny operator.

No I'm not comparing their intelligence as I agree Farage is more intelligent/canny, but that makes him even more dangerous. I was saying that I know now how my friends felt when they said they were worried that there was even the slightest chance Pailin/McCain would be elected. I was also comparing his and her supporters (not all of them obviously) who lap up every word he says because they are so obsessed with just one single policy issue. That is worrying, his party's policies are worrying and even the slightest possibility of him/UKIP gaining anymore power/seats or even sharing power with a coalition is extremely worrying.

I also said he has completely shown his hand and anyone can now see who he is really fighting for and it certainly isn't the majority of British people.

 

[DOTA]

Political genius He's been plugging away at UKIP for the best part of 2 decades and has finally struck lucky with a recession followed by an incompetent Tory government hemorrhaging votes.

I think it's more that Cameron was out of touch (deliberately so) with large sections of the base. The lack of an EU referendum, enironmental posturing, gay marriage etc. were what created a Daily Mail reader shaped gap for them.

The Lib Dems giving up their role as protest party of choice, long term disillusionment with Labour in working class areas and the self destruction of the BNP have also contributed.

 

[DOTA]

Agree that Farage isn't a particularly savvy politician, though. He makes plenty of mistakes and they do take hits when he does.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

I think it's more that Cameron was out of touch (deliberately so) with large sections of the base. The lack of an EU referendum, environmental posturing, gay marriage etc. were what created a Daily Mail reader shaped gap for them.

Could you elaborate on what you mean by this?

 

[DOTA]

Could you elaborate on what you mean by this?

The "green crap" as I think he later put it. Arctic and the huskies, the tree logo etc. Wasn't popular amongst the 'traditional' parts of the party.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Part of me wanted to feel some sympathy for Ed here, but then i reminded myself the much of the above are problems of Labour's own creation. For years it has fostered this daft mindset wherein 'public schoolboy' is viewed in the pejorative, and now it's being thrown back in their face. The party's continued obstinacy toward the notion of a referendum only shows them to be fearful hyporcrites.

Has there been any analysis of constituencies in which UKIP might deprive Labour of the win? They came a strong second in a recent by-election as i recall...

They have to have a chance in Rotherham for one.

 

[DOTA]

They have to have a chance in Rotherham for one.

Makes sense. Was always a strong BNP area. Recent child exploitation scandals will only worsen the fear of immigration and the mistrust in the current authority.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

UKIP was already a major force in EU politics prior to 2010 (from a UK PoV), moves toward further harmonisation of policy and the likelihood of a two-tier decision making have only raise the prominence of the topic. I wouldn't describe Frage as a genius but he's used the situation to his advantage certainly.

 

[bishblaize]

Has there been any analysis of constituencies in which UKIP might deprive Labour of the win? They came a strong second in a recent by-election as i recall...

They came from nowhere to second in the Heywood & Middleton by-election, only lost by 600 votes. However its actually quite hard to know what to draw from the result.

The turnout, as usual, was low (28K, down from 46K in 2010). Labour actually increased their % of the turnout, fractionally. Almost all UKIPs votes seemed to come from the tories (who were down from 27% to 12% of the vote) and the lib dems (from 22% to a miserable 5%).

They also did well in the Wythenshaw by-election too, coming second having been nowhere before. But it was the same story - low turnout, Labour increased their % and the Tories and Lib Dems bombed (going from a combined 47% of the vote to less than 20%).

In both cases though its hard to draw a conclusion - are the UKIP voters disgruntled Tory, Lib Dem or Labour voters or previous non-voters? Who would the stay at homes have voted for, and will they return at the next election?

The simple narrative is that Tory and Lib Dem voters have switched to UKIP, but that may not be the truth.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

The "green crap" as I think he later put it. Arctic and the huskies, the tree logo etc. Wasn't popular amongst the 'traditional' parts of the party.

The 'traditional' party cares about the environment though. Have you forgotten some of the controversies which befell the coalition in the early years? Planning deregulation, forests, HS2 e.t.c.

These linger still, although i would doubt whether UKIP represent a trustworthy haven for such voters.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

They came from nowhere to second in the Heywood & Middleton by-election, only lost by 600 votes. However its actually quite hard to know what to draw from the result.

The turnout, as usual, was low (28K, down from 46K in 2010). Labour actually increased their % of the turnout, fractionally. Almost all UKIPs votes seemed to come from the tories (who were down from 27% to 12% of the vote) and the lib dems (from 22% to a miserable 5%).

They also did well in the Wythenshaw by-election too, coming second having been nowhere before. But it was the same story - low turnout, Labour increased their % and the Tories and Lib Dems bombed (going from a combined 47% of the vote to less than 20%).

In both cases though its hard to draw a conclusion - are the UKIP voters disgruntled Tory, Lib Dem or Labour voters or previous non-voters? Who would the stay at homes have voted for, and will they return at the next election?

The simple narrative is that Tory and Lib Dem voters have switched to UKIP, but that may not be the truth.

In short, there are too many imponderables in translating the data from by-election to general election, at least so far as Labour goes. They'll have some impact i imagine and more than would have been previously envisaged; @Don't Kill Bill makes a good suggestion with Rotherham, a place where they already have some councillors on the ground.

 

[DOTA]

The 'traditional' party cares about the environment though. Have you forgotten some of the controversies which befell the coalition in the early years? Planning deregulation, forests, HS2 e.t.c.

These linger still, although i would doubt whether UKIP represent a trustworthy haven for such voters.

Different sort of environmentalism, though. They care about the British countryside, not carbon emissions.

 

[bishblaize]

In short, there are too many imponderables in translating the data from by-election to general election, at least so far as Labour goes. They'll have some impact i imagine and more than would have been previously envisaged; @Don't Kill Bill makes a good suggestion with Rotherham, a place where they already have some councillors on the ground.

Saw this floating around out there http://news.sky.com/story/1324855/ukip-poll-reveals-12-most-wanted-seats - apparently the target list for UKIP. Of the 12, 9 are Tory, 2 are Lib Dem, 1 is Labour.

However this was from last summer, and their success since may well have changed things.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Different sort of environmentalism, though. They care about the British countryside, not carbon emissions.

They wan effective green policies i'd say, and a central government which doesn't view their home as merely a convenient resource. Labour's disregard is much greater, but then the expectations of the Tories are likewise.

You're right to suggest that UKIP attracts its fair share of climate change sceptics, of that i would make no argument.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Labour and the Tories giving the whole line about how "A vote for the SNP/UKIP is a vote for the Tories/Labour respectively." Are they so shite that they basically have to tell people to tactical vote for them? Both have been peddling this line for ages, and it's getting tiresome.

It's especially tiresome with the Labour/SNP thing because a vote for the SNP doesn't really mean a vote for the Tories: it's likely to be a hung parliament, and someone who would vote SNP has an interest in doing so because it then means the SNP would have an interest in doing so. What don't Labour understand about that?

If the polls are correct then the SNP could rob labour of the chance to form the next govt and the only other party which would then be able to try is the Tory party. These are facts and whatever your personal view about them they can't really be denied. The first attempt at forming the next govt will be made by the party with the most seats in Westminster. If Labours losses in Scotland make the difference between labour and Conservative having most seats then Yes there is a clear way that voting SNP gets us all a Tory govt.

The same argument is being made to UKIP voters by the Tories with regards to Labour getting in. It will make no difference to the way people vote because other factors play stronger but after the election it can make a huge difference in playing out the hand each party is given by the electorate.

 

[Ubik]

If the polls are correct then the SNP could rob labour of the chance to form the next govt and the only other party which would then be able to try is the Tory party. These are facts and whatever your personal view about them they can't really be denied. The first attempt at forming the next govt will be made by the party with the most seats in Westminster. If Labours losses in Scotland make the difference between labour and Conservative having most seats then Yes there is a clear way that voting SNP gets us all a Tory govt.

The same argument is being made to UKIP voters by the Tories with regards to Labour getting in. It will make no difference to the way people vote because other factors play stronger but after the election it can make a huge difference in playing out the hand each party is given by the electorate.

They may be deprived of having first dibs on forming one, but if Labour and the SNP have a majority together the the tories would be mathematically unable to do so other than as a highly unstable minority anyway. Add in the lib dem rump probably wanting to avoid the spotlight for a bit and their options look a bit narrow. Still, after just listening to my coworkers have the most moronic discussion on politics you could imagine, I'm skeptical of events unfolding that lead the Eds into Downing Street.

 

[Penna]

Saw this floating around out there http://news.sky.com/story/1324855/ukip-poll-reveals-12-most-wanted-seats - apparently the target list for UKIP. Of the 12, 9 are Tory, 2 are Lib Dem, 1 is Labour.

However this was from last summer, and their success since may well have changed things.

I was surprised (dismayed) to see a UKIP campaign HQ appear in an empty shop on our main high street (we're in Southport). We are currently a Lib Dem seat with a majority of just over 6,000. Labour have never done well here, always being a very poor third to the Tories or Liberals. The current MP has held the seat since 2001 and is a local man.

In the last election, UKIP only picked up a tenth of the votes of the winner. I suspect they see it being far closer this time, hence their very visible presence in the heart of our town. The only reassurance for me is that they are far more likely to take votes from the Conservatives.

 

[peterstorey]

The only reassurance for me is that they are far more likely to take votes from the Conservatives.

Yeah, the on-message noise from the Tories is 'Vote UKIP and you'll get Ed Miliband in No.10'. Dangerous strategy I think.

 

[Amethyst]

That is worrying, his party's policies are worrying and even the slightest possibility of him/UKIP gaining anymore power/seats or even sharing power with a coalition is extremely worrying.

Farage has said they won't be going into a formal coalition like the Lib Dems did at the last election whatever the outcome is, I think he must see how damaging it's been for them (23% in 2010 to around 7% this) and he's now saying they would go into a confidence and supply deal if a referendum on the EU is offered.

 

[langster]

Just laughing that more people have voted on the "do you think Michael Jackson was guilty?" poll in less than a week than people have voted on this poll in a couple of months.

The press are warning of a low turnout and reporting voter apathy being at a high. It's a shame really as it's probably one of the most important elections in years.

 

[Rado_N]

A low turnout will be good news for UKIP, sadly.

 

[Silva]

It's hardly the voters fault. All the options are shite and the system is a complete travesty.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Well at least we know the chair of the security service oversight committee is above all foreign influence. I can sleep better now.

 

[peterstorey]

It's pretty fecking depressing: a Labour big beast looking to put his snout in the trough; a classic one-nation Tory on the make. These are the 'golden generation' of' conviction' politicos pre Blair/Clegg/Cameron. Gawd elp us.

 

[bishblaize]

Painful interview by Green Party leader Natalie Bennett.

 

[Mihajlovic]

My goodness that was so bad