Your conclusion/analysis is obviously erroneous, as the article clearly states. Was this an intentional attempt at propaganda or an honest mistake?
And if 2010-2016 hasn't taught you the dangers of a budget surplus when interest rates are low, then likely nothing will.The problem isn't and never was the deficit, it's productivity stagnation/decline. Under this conservative government, productivity has fallen to almost the 2008 recession level. Brexit will simply harm this further.
Zero hour contracts, too many degrees, austerity, morale, lack of investment (lolol brexit), real wages fall ... again these zero hour contracts and your Romanian cleaners are harming productivity. (less costs, more workers, less productivity).
This is why the Conservatives as I said, have screwed the pooch. Note I'm not saying Corbyn wouldn't be worse. But Brown was most certainly light years ahead.
I didn't post the speculative parts of the article because they are just that... Speculative. The bits you've quoted literally state "may", "could", "might" several times as below.
I agree productivity is a bit problem but being productive and running a surplus aren't mutually exclusive... Germany have been doing it for years. In fact I'd argue low taxes promote greater investment which promotes greater productivity. I'd argue the tax and spend conservative policies of the last decade have depressed productivity (although this is a problem for many western high tax economies).
I obviously disagree with your statement regarding zero hour contracts as all that I've read on this front states they suit the majority of people who opt for them. My Romanian cleaners are doing in 1 hour what my full time cleaners did in 1.25 hours... They're more productive simply because they work more efficiently (less chatting, less distracting other staff, they don't get paid for not turning up etc)... They earn more per hour than the previous cleaners also. Which I believe over the last few years is a common theme (real terms wage growth), which you'd always expect to lag after a destructive recession.
I'll finish saying that if Blair had stuck to a more responsible 3% spending increase per annum between 1999 and 2006 we'd have been able to spend at £80b extra per annum 2008 -2010 and still be in the same position whilst almost certainly avoiding the worst of the recession. That's the ridiculousness of spending everything you have when times are great, you merely screw yourself over when times aren't (which is almost always less than a decade away). Every family knows you build up a nest egg when times are good.
Have a good weekend though as I'm sure you completely disagree!
"It should be borne in mind however that the extra inputs received
may have improved the quality of the output in ways not..."
"period from 2001 to 2007 then the quality of public services
might have deteriorated".
"It
could also be the case that diminishing marginal returns"
"It
may also be the case that the impact of extra inputs on outputs only shows up fully with a lag"
"This
could explain why productivity and “bang for each buck”
"However there
may be good reasons to expect productivity growth to differ"
"new technologies and management processes
may boost productivity in some industries but not others.