UK General Election - 12th December 2019 | Con 365, Lab 203, LD 11, SNP 48, Other 23 - Tory Majority of 80

How do you intend to vote in the 2019 General Election if eligible?

  • Brexit Party

    Votes: 30 4.3%
  • Conservatives

    Votes: 73 10.6%
  • DUP

    Votes: 5 0.7%
  • Green

    Votes: 23 3.3%
  • Labour

    Votes: 355 51.4%
  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 58 8.4%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 3 0.4%
  • Sinn Fein

    Votes: 9 1.3%
  • SNP

    Votes: 19 2.8%
  • UKIP

    Votes: 6 0.9%
  • Independent

    Votes: 1 0.1%
  • Other (BNP, Change UK, UUP and anyone else that I have forgotten)

    Votes: 10 1.4%
  • Not voting

    Votes: 57 8.3%
  • Undecided

    Votes: 41 5.9%

  • Total voters
    690
  • Poll closed .
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Still undecided between Labour/Lib Dem and Green. Like you I am going to struggle to vote for Labour. Will wait for the manifestos to come out and go from there.
Same. Don’t feel comfortable with Corbyn’s economic policies, but it would be the ‘correct’ vote for where I live
 
So what Lib Dem policies do you really like and which Labour policies do you really dislike?

Lib Dems - Like Revoke A50 - you may not like it but this election is about Brexit.

Labour - dislike (to begin with):
1. Wasting time renegotiating with a CU which would, long term, probably hurt the country more than a hard Brexit.
2. A leadership with economic policies and ideas rooted in the 1970s and, frankly, juvenile foreign policy ideals.
3. Hypocrisy over having a democratic party (the voting at this years conference spoke volumes for how much the party leadership was willing to back up it's rhetoric with action)
4. Corbyn's historical hostility to the EU, support for the IRA, support for terrorists (I'm no Israeli sympathiser but the leadership of both sides are not interested in peace).
5. Absurd policies such as seizing private property of schools.
 
They used a type of anysis called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP), the only model to correctly predict the outcome of shock 2017 election results:

"a recently developed technique called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (or 'MRP' for short) is used to produce estimates for small geographies (local authorities for the EU referendum, states in the 2016 American Presidential election, and Parliamentary constituencies for the 2017 General Election).

The idea behind MRP is that we use the poll data from the preceding seven days to estimate a model relating interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions. This model is then used to estimate the probability that a voter with specified characteristics will vote Conservative, Labour, or some other party. Using data from the UK Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results, an estimate is made of the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allows YouGov to produce a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day."

They surveyed 46,000 people to come up with their data, a very large sample size.

The constituencies being questioned are the ones with new high profile Lib Dem candidates (heavy remain areas where polling shows the Lib Dems winning despite previous results), it's exactly what you'd expect in a political environment where Brexit identity is stronger than party identity for a large percentage of voters.

The website tells me to vote Labour btw.

Thanks for the blurb but by their own word they're making decisions on a seat by seat basis so it's not even just data led, for example they're not automatically saying Labour MPs support a second ref despite previous voting records and they've not even bothered to ask them. They're also weighting EU and local elections over the 2017 GE which is ridiculous.

I did see someone tweet an analysis that i can't now find but it was around 90% swing seats they recommend Lib Dem.

Few ridiculous examples below but just go on twitter to find the endless cases. Its nothing more than lib dem trying to grab votes.
 
Oh and the Lib Dems got 2% last time in my constituency and only 9% in local and surprise it thinks i should vote for them :lol:
 
Right I need to ask this and I’m not really sure if this is the right thread but sod it.

What is with all the hate for Bercow? Is it just because he upholds the house and doesn’t just let certain people/parties do as they please? It’s been confusing me for months now.
 
Still undecided between Labour/Lib Dem and Green. Like you I am going to struggle to vote for Labour. Will wait for the manifestos to come out and go from there.

Manifestos are overrated. Only the Labour and Tory manifestos even matter at all, since the Lib Dems and everyone else aren't going to win. And even for those two, if events get in the way then the manifesto goes out the window, as it did in 1992, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017 for the winners of those elections. Unless a) you win a big majority and don't need to compromise on your legislation and b) everything in politics is relatively calm and you can choose what to work on, your manifesto and what you do in Government will invariably look very different.

Manifestos are at best a statement of values, which give you a rough picture of what a party cares about. But I think its pretty clear where the main parties stand on the big issues already.
 
Oh and the Lib Dems got 2% last time in my constituency and only 9% in local and surprise it thinks i should vote for them :lol:

My constituency is a swing Labour and Lib Dem seat and it says to vote Labour. So not sure its rigged in my case.
 
Still undecided between Labour/Lib Dem and Green. Like you I am going to struggle to vote for Labour. Will wait for the manifestos to come out and go from there.
Same here. I think there will be a lot more attention paid to the manifestos this time, with Brexit on the back burner a bit, as we've all formed our opinions on where the parties stand there. Any that don't take their manifesto seriously will suffer in the polls.
 
My constituency is a swing Labour and Lib Dem seat and it says to vote Labour. So not sure its rigged in my case.
I like naomi smith when she is on the remaniacs podcast - I think shes to put in bluntly unimpressed with the labour leadership stance on brexit but has always struck me as being pragmatic and genuinely would want to offer what she felt was the best advice to get a peoples vote - I doubt it would be rigged but of course the advice is only as accurate as the data and analysis it is based on and given we are having a december election, with a large single issue dominating, and uncertainty over brexit party standing or not and with so far minimal local polling to go on - so yeah its a best guess i suppose and also is assuming people would only prioratise brexit over other policies.
 
Thanks for the blurb but by their own word they're making decisions on a seat by seat basis so it's not even just data led, for example they're not automatically saying Labour MPs support a second ref despite previous voting records and they've not even bothered to ask them. They're also weighting EU and local elections over the 2017 GE which is ridiculous

Nowhere does is say they are weighting the EU and local elections over the 17 GE, it says they use MRP polling and constituency level demographics to predict how people will vote in each constituency, then make a recommendation based on the positions of the candidates in each one as to who you should vote for.


I did see someone tweet an analysis that i can't now find but it was around 90% swing seats they recommend Lib Dem

without seeing what you're talking about I can't comment, but if it's as transparent as Owen Jones' attempt then it's most probably bollocks. From what I've seen Owen spends about 95% of his time attacking Lib Dems and ex Labour MPs on twitter rather than going after the Tories or Farage, he's pretty obsessed tbh.

Few ridiculous examples below but just go on twitter to find the endless cases. Its nothing more than lib dem trying to grab votes.


taking 2 of those:

EIMsJ8VXkAAd4iv


EIMsJ8WWwAAeZKf


Given the way things have changed since 2017 with the Lib Dem revival in the polls and the way Brexit has developed I'd say it's more than possible the Lib Dems are the most likely to beat the Tories in these seats, and alot of others too.

read this thread, the comments and her replies for a better understanding of it.

 
Meh the parties should take it out of her hands and form a remain alliance like they did in the last by election ... would mean some compramise and sacrificing some target seats but with a clear objective that "should" be above party politics

The main problem with that is of course labours refusal to engage with the remain alliance in the last by election and most probable refusal to do so this time

Gut feel Libs and SNP get around 100 seats in the election and labour would only need to avoid their worst election resulst since WW2 to be in with a chance of having a minority government / coalition... but their brexit policy will gash that up and they will end up around 200 seats (and blame the media, jews, blairites and basically anybody but corbyn and his brexit stance)

Is there any legalities about tactical voting websites (and their funding) - I know momentum have already been reported to the electoral commission as they are not registered and have said themselves they have raised £100K so far (the limit for non registered is I believe £20k)

And basically handing the evidence out publicly


thought they would have learned after last time?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47468571

still Im looking forward to the call with jezbollah this evening - they really don't vet things very well do they
 
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Given the way things have changed since 2017 with the Lib Dem revival in the polls and the way Brexit has developed I'd say it's more than possible the Lib Dems are the most likely to beat the Tories in these seats, and alot of others too.

read this thread, the comments and her replies for a better understanding of it.



I've read her replies and a load of other associated persons defences too i wouldn't have flagged it here otherwise.

You can't be looking at those graphics and saying with a straight face that Lib Dems are favourite to beat the Tories. The only reason for that one will be they've not classed the Labour MP as remain yet. Naomi has said in her tweets they're still verifying MPs but decided to launch it anyway.
 
I've read her replies and a load of other associated persons defences too i wouldn't have flagged it here otherwise.

You can't be looking at those graphics and saying with a straight face that Lib Dems are favourite to beat the Tories. The only reason for that one will be they've not classed the Labour MP as remain yet. Naomi has said in her tweets they're still verifying MPs but decided to launch it anyway.

nor have labour so yeah you can see the reluctance of anybody who is pro remain to back a party who simply wont commit to that
 
I think remain people would still Vote libs in large numbers knowing they would certainly try to deliver on that.

Bet Boris does too, he's probably counting on it! Jeremy not so happy though! Swinson would be delighted with this prediction, her real focus is on the GE that will follow this one!
 
I've read her replies and a load of other associated persons defences too i wouldn't have flagged it here otherwise.

You can't be looking at those graphics and saying with a straight face that Lib Dems are favourite to beat the Tories. The only reason for that one will be they've not classed the Labour MP as remain yet. Naomi has said in her tweets they're still verifying MPs but decided to launch it anyway.

By those graphics I assume you're talking about the images of election results going back to 2010, the point of which being these constituencies used to be more Lib Dem than Labour, then punished the Lib Dems in 2 elections for the coalition, but since 2017 their image and the political landscape have both changed dramatically and so I would expect those voters who used to be Lib Dem but went to Labour due to the coalition are now turning back, especially seeing how far left the Labout party is currently perceived to be.
 
By those graphics I assume you're talking about the images of election results going back to 2010, the point of which being these constituencies used to be more Lib Dem than Labour, then punished the Lib Dems in 2 elections for the coalition, but since 2017 their image and the political landscape have both changed dramatically and so I would expect those voters who used to be Lib Dem but went to Labour due to the coalition are now turning back, especially seeing how far left the Labout party is currently perceived to be.
I think this is the logic... last time libs were polling 15-20% nationally they were the main challanger in these seats and they are now polling 15-20% but something about best for britain are jew funded yellow tories etc and ooooooh jeremy corbyn
 
Lib Dems - Like Revoke A50 - you may not like it but this election is about Brexit.

Labour - dislike (to begin with):
1. Wasting time renegotiating with a CU which would, long term, probably hurt the country more than a hard Brexit.
2. A leadership with economic policies and ideas rooted in the 1970s and, frankly, juvenile foreign policy ideals.
3. Hypocrisy over having a democratic party (the voting at this years conference spoke volumes for how much the party leadership was willing to back up it's rhetoric with action)
4. Corbyn's historical hostility to the EU, support for the IRA, support for terrorists (I'm no Israeli sympathiser but the leadership of both sides are not interested in peace).
5. Absurd policies such as seizing private property of schools.
:lol:

Somehow its Corbyn fault for not wining over these ''lefties''. Who knew stopping the selling of arms to Saudi Arabia would be a negative to some on here.

p.s. you want to look again at Labour economic polices.

Also tory.



I love how these feckers were the ones not too long ago complaining about ''fake news'' and lying in politics.
 
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I usually vote Tory but I'm undecided this time. Can't stand Johnson but Corbyn is unfit to be PM. I'll probably look at the Tory party as a whole before casting my vote! Maybe I'll just draw a big cock on the ballot paper.
 
I think this is the logic... last time libs were polling 15-20% nationally they were the main challanger in these seats and they are now polling 15-20% but something about best for britain are jew funded yellow tories etc and ooooooh jeremy corbyn

:boring: Seriously, what's with the constant Jew stuff? You've read this on there have you or are you just regurgitating right wing ad hominems?
 
I usually vote Tory but I'm undecided this time. Can't stand Johnson but Corbyn is unfit to be PM. I'll probably look at the Tory party as a whole before casting my vote! Maybe I'll just draw a big cock on the ballot paper.


 
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I usually vote Tory but I'm undecided this time. Can't stand Johnson but Corbyn is unfit to be PM. I'll probably look at the Tory party as a whole before casting my vote! Maybe I'll just draw a big cock on the ballot paper.

Careful, you'll start a riot on here with confessions like that. :lol:
 
:boring: Seriously, what's with the constant Jew stuff? You've read this on there have you or are you just regurgitating right wing ad hominems?

the fact that best for britain has been attacked for having recieved funding from soros... oh and you know the EHRC stuff - labour has a problem with antisemitsm and they are not fit to govern IMO

actually the telegraph and mogg have also been called out for being antisemitic in their attacks on best for britain
 
Jo Swinson's 'white males' comment still getting a backlash.

EIKb8AAXYAAdKc0.jpg
I need to stop quoting the DM
 
the fact that best for britain has been attacked for having recieved funding from soros... oh and you know the EHRC stuff - labour has a problem with antisemitsm and they are not fit to govern IMO

actually the telegraph and mogg have also been called out for being antisemitic in their attacks on best for britain


Exactly. So your point is that there are twats on both sides? Hardly a newsflash.
 
nor have labour so yeah you can see the reluctance of anybody who is pro remain to back a party who simply wont commit to that

Were the Lib Dems not a remain party in the 2017 election then when they only offered a 2nd ref?

Let me guess the action of a referendum doesn't matter unless the leader says "pretty please vote this way".
 
Were the Lib Dems not a remain party in the 2017 election then when they only offered a 2nd ref?

Let me guess the action of a referendum doesn't matter unless the leader says "pretty please vote this way".

I think labour campaigned on a leave platform didnt they in 2017?

And I believe even now they would not campaign for remain but be "neutral" even though they will negotiate a magical deal (perhaps he can arrange to have another show of hands vote overturned and refuse an actual ballot to get the NEC to back his deal)

So yeah as a remainer in what way are they remain... and especially corbyn

brexit-news-jeremy-corbyn-2006384.webp
 
Jo Swinson's 'white males' comment still getting a backlash.

EIKb8AAXYAAdKc0.jpg
I need to stop quoting the DM

These people assume that anything advanced in western society must have been developed by white males :lol:

I'd love to be the one to tell them that Asians and Indians have been the main drivers behind technological advancements over the last two decades.
 
Q: How will you vote in the next Brexit referendum?

Corbyn says Brexit has divided people, communities and families. He says there are people who voted leave and remain who experience the same problems.

He says Labour wants to take no deal off the table. That is why he refused to support any move that might allow Boris Johnson do to this.

He says a Labour government would open negotiations with the EU about a sensible relationship with the EU, that would not destroy jobs. There would be a customs union, which would keep the border in Ireland as it is now. And the Good Friday agreement would be intake (intact?). And a sweetheart trade deal with Donald Trump would not be an option.

You can see why remainers should (not) vote for Jeremy . Still doesn't understand you can't take no deal off the table, still doesn't understand customs' unions and still doesn't understand it's not only the CU that is needed re NI/Ire.
 
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