Top 4 race / race abandoned (or maybe not) / Leicester & Chelsea in the process of bottling it

70 points will easily get us top 4 imo. So 3 wins and a draw.

That would leave the likes of Spurs and Liverpool needing 22 out of 24 points to catch us. Or West ham and Everton 22 out of 27. That wont happen.
 
No chance we throw away an eleven point gap to fifth, not with how inconsistent the competition is.
 
2 or 3 more wins should make it secure.
Anyone that thinks its a done deal needs to slow down.

This isnt done yet but it would be some collapse.

Chelsea have Leicester , Arsenal, City, West Ham, City again in FA cup and the the CL.
Savage fixtures. They will most likely drop out and let Liverpool in
 
It's down to a fight for 3rd and 4th now.
 
We’re 10/1 with sky bet to finish outside the top 4. So pile on if you’re still nervous.
 
If people think that we can lose top 4 now with an 11 points lead then remember City are also 11 points ahead of us. #Believe :wenger:
 
McGrathsipan said:
2 or 3 more wins should make it secure.
Anyone that thinks its a done deal needs to slow down.

This isnt done yet but it would be some collapse.

Chelsea have Leicester , Arsenal, City, West Ham, City again in FA cup and the the CL.
Savage fixtures. They will most likely drop out and let Liverpool in
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It's done in the same way the title is done for City

I still expect Chelsea to make it at Leicester's expense, Liverpool will finish 3rd
 
SinNombre said:
The models have us at 97%.



exactly this.

Where is this pessimism coming from?

We may not be league winners but are clearly very hard to beat.
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I think it's down to the previous 8 seasons combined. People enjoy the progress, but because it's been fairly slow the last couple of years, there's a tiny buffer of patience.
So every poor performance or result suddenly gets everyone really jittery again.

I hope we have firm plans transfer wise this summer. Often it feels like we talk big months before, but in reality nothing is lined up, and we seem to jump around with some targets, and spend a lot of time on other ones we probably won't succeed with.
 
snk123 said:
If people think that we can lose top 4 now with an 11 points lead then remember City are also 11 points ahead of us. #Believe :wenger:
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They're 14 ahead, with a game extra played. So not quite the same thing.
 
The other thing to keep in mind is that there is the possibility that 4th might not get you in if Arsenal win the Europa League and one of Chelsea/Liverpool win the champions league and finish outside the top 4. A few ifs there but with the recent draws not out of the question. Important to finish as high as possible but good to have 9 point lead over 4th place Chelsea as well. Can only see ourselves and Leicester getting 70+ points now. Should be aiming for at least 75-76 points imo which would almost certainly get 2nd. Can focus on winning Europa League.
 
EC689908 said:
The other thing to keep in mind is that there is the possibility that 4th might not get you in if Arsenal win the Europa League and one of Chelsea/Liverpool win the champions league and finish outside the top 4. A few ifs there but with the recent draws not out of the question. Important to finish as high as possible but good to have 9 point lead over 4th place Chelsea as well. Can only see ourselves and Leicester getting 70+ points now. Should be aiming for at least 75-76 points imo which would almost certainly get 2nd. Can focus on winning Europa League.
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oh I would love Liverpool finishing 4th and that happening:lol:
 
Shit just saw our fixture list..
We are finishing 6th.
123612125.DU1RvVS2.ohnoeseverybodypanic.gif
 
EC689908 said:
As of now 74 points would guarantee at least 4th. 76 points for 3rd.
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Edit. Just saw West Ham have a game in hand, so 76 points in that case then for 4th and 77 for 3rd, not that West Ham will get close to 76..
 
sewey89 said:
We’re 10/1 with sky bet to finish outside the top 4. So pile on if you’re still nervous.
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That is a awful price. We are 1/33 to finish top 4 so if you go onto Betfair exchange and lay us to finish top 4 you will get 33/1 and I still wouldn’t do it
 
You guys are done. Results went pretty well with Leicester and Chelsea messing up. No way you aren't finishing top 4 now. Liverpool could put a good run together and make top 4 but won't be at your expense.
 
EC689908 said:
Edit. Just saw West Ham have a game in hand, so 76 points in that case then for 4th and 77 for 3rd, not that West Ham will get close to 76..
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Thanks for that. Considering other teams playing eachother / dropping points then I would imagine that more 4 wins will seal it
 
Leicester - Played 30, Points 56
West Ham (A)
WBA (H)
Crystal Palace (H)
Southampton (A)
Newcastle (H)
Man Utd (A)
Chelsea (A)
Tottenham (H)

Chelsea - Played 30, Points 51
Crystal Palace (A)
Brighton (H)
West Ham (A)
Fulham (H)
Man City (A)
Arsenal (H)
Leicester (H)
Aston Villa (A)

Tottenham - Played 30, Points 49
Man Utd (H)
Everton (A)
Southampton (H)
Sheff Utd (H)
Leeds (A)
Wolves (H)
Aston Villa (H)
Leicester (A)

Liverpool - Played 30, Points 49
Aston Villa (H)
Leeds (A)
Newcastle (H)
Manchester United (A)
Southampton (H)
West Brom (A)
Burnley (A)
Crystal Palace (H)

West Ham - Played 29, Points 49
Wolves (A)
Leicester (H)
Newcastle (H)
Chelsea (H)
Burnley (A)
Everton (H)
Brighton (A)
West Brom (A)
Southampton (H)

Everton - Played 28, Points 46
Crystal Palace (H)
Brighton (A)
Tottenham (H)
Arsenal (A)
Aston Villa (H)
West Ham (A)
Sheff Utd (H)
Wolves (H)
Man City (A)

I wouldn't discount Everton, looking at their remaining fixtures
 
Gazza said:
Leicester - Played 30, Points 56
West Ham (A)
WBA (H)
Crystal Palace (H)
Southampton (A)
Newcastle (H)
Man Utd (A)
Chelsea (A)
Tottenham (H)

Chelsea - Played 30, Points 51
Crystal Palace (A)
Brighton (H)
West Ham (A)
Fulham (H)
Man City (A)
Arsenal (H)
Leicester (H)
Aston Villa (A)

Tottenham - Played 30, Points 49
Man Utd (H)
Everton (A)
Southampton (H)
Sheff Utd (H)
Leeds (A)
Wolves (H)
Aston Villa (H)
Leicester (A)

Liverpool - Played 30, Points 49
Aston Villa (H)
Leeds (A)
Newcastle (H)
Manchester United (A)
Southampton (H)
West Brom (A)
Burnley (A)
Crystal Palace (H)

West Ham - Played 29, Points 49
Wolves (A)
Leicester (H)
Newcastle (H)
Chelsea (H)
Burnley (A)
Everton (H)
Brighton (A)
West Brom (A)
Southampton (H)

Everton - Played 28, Points 46
Crystal Palace (H)
Brighton (A)
Tottenham (H)
Arsenal (A)
Aston Villa (H)
West Ham (A)
Sheff Utd (H)
Wolves (H)
Man City (A)

I wouldn't discount Everton, looking at their remaining fixtures
Click to expand...

What about West Ham?
 
Gazza said:
Leicester - Played 30, Points 56
West Ham (A)
WBA (H)
Crystal Palace (H)
Southampton (A)
Newcastle (H)
Man Utd (A)
Chelsea (A)
Tottenham (H)

Chelsea - Played 30, Points 51
Crystal Palace (A)
Brighton (H)
West Ham (A)
Fulham (H)
Man City (A)
Arsenal (H)
Leicester (H)
Aston Villa (A)

Tottenham - Played 30, Points 49
Man Utd (H)
Everton (A)
Southampton (H)
Sheff Utd (H)
Leeds (A)
Wolves (H)
Aston Villa (H)
Leicester (A)

Liverpool - Played 30, Points 49
Aston Villa (H)
Leeds (A)
Newcastle (H)
Manchester United (A)
Southampton (H)
West Brom (A)
Burnley (A)
Crystal Palace (H)

West Ham - Played 29, Points 49
Wolves (A)
Leicester (H)
Newcastle (H)
Chelsea (H)
Burnley (A)
Everton (H)
Brighton (A)
West Brom (A)
Southampton (H)

Everton - Played 28, Points 46
Crystal Palace (H)
Brighton (A)
Tottenham (H)
Arsenal (A)
Aston Villa (H)
West Ham (A)
Sheff Utd (H)
Wolves (H)
Man City (A)

I wouldn't discount Everton, looking at their remaining fixtures
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I'd be surprised if Liverpool miss out based on those.
 
Leftback99 said:
I'd be surprised if Liverpool miss out based on those.
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When you look at Chelsea's last 4 games and Leicesters last 3 I'd be shocked if Liverpool don't catch one of them to be honest.
Plus both the above also having West Ham only adds to the potential points dropped.
 
I can’t see us being caught at this point, not for top 4 and probably not even for second place. The teams beneath us are just as, if not more inconsistent than we are.
 
VidaRed said:
I'd say were the big winners since all our top 4 rivals dropped points. West ham and everton have game in hand on liverpool.
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No non Man. United fan on here believes you were ever in danger of missing out on top 4 even with the dodgy run you had in Feb which just killed off your title hopes.
 
Cloud7 said:
I can’t see us being caught at this point, not for top 4 and probably not even for second place. The teams beneath us are just as, if not more inconsistent than we are.
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Yeah you’re safe now imo. Leicester might be ok but Chelsea should be concerned.
 
Looking at those fixtures, bloody hell if Liverpool hadn’t botched their season completely they could be looking at the cushiest title run-in ever.
 
TheReligion said:
No I know they are there. Can they do it though? Run in looks favourable
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Oh I get you now :lol:
Agreed their run in is not bad at all. However I’d say the thing with West Ham is they surely have the weakest squad, the least experience, and whatever their fixtures are there is a feeling they’ll settle around 6th and call it a great season. Isn’t there usually a team that looks like cracking the top four before fizzling out?
 
Leicester's final three fixtures look lethal.

Us away, Chelsea away and Spurs at home. Would be a shame if they missed out again, I'd gladly have them in the CL over Chelsea, Spurs, Liverpool.
 
Gazza said:
Oh I get you now :lol:
Agreed their run in is not bad at all. However I’d say the thing with West Ham is they surely have the weakest squad, the least experience, and whatever their fixtures are there is a feeling they’ll settle around 6th and call it a great season. Isn’t there usually a team that looks like cracking the top four before fizzling out?
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I can see both West Ham and Everton causing issues really. It's a total dog fight for the chasing pack. Leicester might get dragged in it but still have a little buffer.

I don't really think Liverpool have turned a massive corner either. Could see them being beaten by Villa next game for instance. Watkins will cause their CB pairing issues unlike Arsenal who barely tested them.
 
Shane88 said:
Leicester's final three fixtures look lethal.

Us away, Chelsea away and Spurs at home. Would be a shame if they missed out again, I'd gladly have them in the CL over Chelsea, Spurs, Liverpool.
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I think they’d blow their shot under Rodgers in the Champions League if they make it. His European record is horrendous. I’d be surprised if they made it out of the group.
 
Klopper76 said:
Yeah you’re safe now imo. Leicester might be ok but Chelsea should be concerned.
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That's how I see it. I think top 3 is sorted, only thing to be decided is if us or Leicester finish 2nd. I except you guys to take 4th if you get you stuff together. If not then the problem is your 'easy' run in starts to look harder considering the teams you have dropped points to so far. If Chelsea can get their attack right for the remainder then they will be a problem too. I'd be very disappointed if we can't beat Spurs at the weekend, which would really knock them back. The others will drop off I reckon. So between Liverpool and Chelsea, although I wish it were Everton, Villa or West Ham. Liverpool simply have the proven ability of the last few seasons to make them slight favourites.

As 'bad' as our run in is I only really see Liverpool and Leicester as games I expect us not to win so we should just about be ok for second. Maybe Leicester shit the bed again and 3rd is a possibility for others too but I think they'll be ok.
 
Gazza said:
Leicester - Played 30, Points 56
West Ham (A)
WBA (H)
Crystal Palace (H)
Southampton (A)
Newcastle (H)
Man Utd (A)
Chelsea (A)
Tottenham (H)

Chelsea - Played 30, Points 51
Crystal Palace (A)
Brighton (H)
West Ham (A)
Fulham (H)
Man City (A)
Arsenal (H)
Leicester (H)
Aston Villa (A)

Tottenham - Played 30, Points 49
Man Utd (H)
Everton (A)
Southampton (H)
Sheff Utd (H)
Leeds (A)
Wolves (H)
Aston Villa (H)
Leicester (A)

Liverpool - Played 30, Points 49
Aston Villa (H)
Leeds (A)
Newcastle (H)
Manchester United (A)
Southampton (H)
West Brom (A)
Burnley (A)
Crystal Palace (H)

West Ham - Played 29, Points 49
Wolves (A)
Leicester (H)
Newcastle (H)
Chelsea (H)
Burnley (A)
Everton (H)
Brighton (A)
West Brom (A)
Southampton (H)

Everton - Played 28, Points 46
Crystal Palace (H)
Brighton (A)
Tottenham (H)
Arsenal (A)
Aston Villa (H)
West Ham (A)
Sheff Utd (H)
Wolves (H)
Man City (A)

I wouldn't discount Everton, looking at their remaining fixtures
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Chelsea and Leicester are going to have a bit of a fight on their hands. Leicester probably did well to get knocked out of the Ropey.
 
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