Top 4 Race 19/20 | duffer: "We [Chelsea] are getting 3rd. Despite what the lunatics in here think, Man United are not all that."

Cathy Ferguson said:
Well, I wouldn't mind us winning three league games in a row, which has not happened this season?
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Something interesting is Chelsea went on a six game winning run from late September to early November, but outside of that run they haven't won more than one consecutive game in the league:

Leicester: DDWWLWWLWWWWWWWWDLLWWLLWDDLL
Chelsea: LDWDWLWWWWWWLLWLLWLWDWLDDLW
Man Utd: WDLDWLDLDWLWDDWWDLWWLWLLDWW
Tottenham: WDLDWLWLDLDDWWLWWLWDLLDWWWL
Sheffield Utd: DWLDLWLDWDWDDDLWWWDLLWDLWWD
Wolves: DDDLLDWWDDDWWDWDLWWLLDWLDDW

Bolded the 'runs' but consistency is what all the teams fighting for the Champions League have been lacking. Fingers crossed Chelsea lose tomorrow.
 
Leicester still have Spurs, Arsenal, Sheffield United and United to play. Crystal Palace might be a bitch as well.
 
Leicester doing their best to throw it away. Their next two games are pretty winnable in theory but they have to be careful

I thought Everton might be in the mix with a slim chance but they're next 5 or 6 games are really tough. Don't think they have a chance to be honest. Arsenal would have to go on one hell of a run.

Damien said:
Something interesting is Chelsea went on a six game winning run from late September to early November, but outside of that run they haven't won more than one consecutive game in the league:

Leicester: DDWWLWWLWWWWWWWWDLLWWLLWDDLL
Chelsea: LDWDWLWWWWWWLLWLLWLWDWLDDLW
Man Utd: WDLDWLDLDWLWDDWWDLWWLWLLDWW
Tottenham: WDLDWLWLDLDDWWLWWLWDLLDWWWL
Sheffield Utd: DWLDLWLDWDWDDDLWWWDLLWDLWWD
Wolves: DDDLLDWWDDDWWDWDLWWLLDWLDDW

Bolded the 'runs' but consistency is what all the teams fighting for the Champions League have been lacking. Fingers crossed Chelsea lose tomorrow.
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The inconsistency of these teams is crazy.
 
Leicester are done, their run since mid December is relegation form
 
Leicester seem in free fall mode now. The way they dealt with the last 20 minutes today was definitely a sign of a team not used to that kind of situation. The players were stressed out of their skins, still creating nothing
 
It's almost in our hands Ina sense that we need to be consistent. We need to win this weeend.
 
Would be funny if 4th ended up with 58 points.

If we win our remaining 11 games we'd have 74 points :lol:. It's a tall order to get ~65 points. At the mid point this season it was tracking below 2016's 66 points for 4th and is still on course to be low 60s.

With our additions we have a good chance even if we lose to Everton. I feel the form will be better over the 11 games and we'll get a few more wins than we were previously on course for and should see us in the low 60s. Perhaps confidence can flow even more to get mid to high 60s with an Ole Dec to March type run.
 
Surprised how certain some were that Leicester were locked for top four. They were heavy favourites given their accumulated points, but their metrics had them at Wolves’ level, which meant a lot of dropped points was always a real possibility.
 
I realize a few wins on the trot has raised optimism levels, understandably. But I personally don't see it. We have been way too inconsistent. Don't see that getting fixed. There is hope in the form of Bruno Fernandes but we still don't have enough quality in attack with Rashford and Pogba out.
 
We have a hell of a chance now and surely we cant keep letting these gifts slip through our hands! If and it is a massive if, we manage to get on a proper run now then we have a great chance. If we could get Rashford and to some extent Pogba back into the team it would be a huge boost.
 
After our Everton, City and Spurs games which are next, our end-of-season run in is extremely kind, probably the easiest of the lot. I wouldn't be surprised if Bournemouth beat Chelsea today so we could officially be 4th tomorrow.

Getting Rashford and Pogba back for the run in would seal it for sure.
 
I reckon if we get 6/9 againsta Everton (a), Spurs (a) and shitty (h), we’ll get it.

Can’t see Leicester slipping below fourth.
 
Svartzonker said:
I reckon if we get 6/9 againsta Everton (a), Spurs (a) and shitty (h), we’ll get it.

Can’t see Leicester slipping below fourth.
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I think we need 8 or 9 points from Everton, City, Spurs and Sheffield United.

Another target is to get within a couple of points of Leicester before we play them on the last day. A good run after the Sheffield United game and third is still a real possibility.
 
Semi-regular odds update (top quotes):

Leicester: 1.27
Chelsea: 1.69
United: 4.00
Spurs: 6.88
Wolves: 11
Sheffield: 21

United have closed in after recent results but remain big underdogs with an implied chance of <25%. There are markets for a top five finish as well but they aren't very liquid so can only give a rough estimation of the true probabilities.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Semi-regular odds update (top quotes):

Leicester: 1.27
Chelsea: 1.69
United: 4.00
Spurs: 6.88
Wolves: 11
Sheffield: 21

United have closed in after recent results but remain big underdogs with an implied chance of <25%. There are markets for a top five finish as well but they aren't very liquid so can only give a rough estimation of the true probabilities.
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Pointless taking implied chances from bookies odds. They've factored their own advantage into it.
 
Relfy said:
We have a hell of a chance now and surely we cant keep letting these gifts slip through our hands! If and it is a massive if, we manage to get on a proper run now then we have a great chance. If we could get Rashford and to some extent Pogba back into the team it would be a huge boost.
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I really don’t think Rashford will play again this season. Pogba should be back in March though.
 
Pexbo said:
Pointless taking implied chances from bookies odds. They've factored their own advantage into it.
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That doesn't make them pointless. You can demarginalise the prices (a bit trickier with multi-outcome markets) to get a more accurate probability.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
That doesn't make them pointless. You can demarginalise the prices (a bit trickier with multi-outcome markets) to get a more accurate probability.
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OK not completely pointless but it's very difficult to adjust the prices as it's not necessarily just simple profit margins, they also mitigate betting trends which can skew it a fair amount.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Semi-regular odds update (top quotes):

Leicester: 1.27
Chelsea: 1.69
United: 4.00
Spurs: 6.88
Wolves: 11
Sheffield: 21

United have closed in after recent results but remain big underdogs with an implied chance of <25%. There are markets for a top five finish as well but they aren't very liquid so can only give a rough estimation of the true probabilities.
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Wasnt Spurs favourites over us last week?
Kind of pointless when they change every week. Its bookies covering themselves.
A continuation of form alters these odds when nothing really changes, it just contunues yet odds jump up and down.
 
cyberman said:
Wasnt Spurs favourites over us last week?
Kind of pointless when they change every week. Its bookies covering themselves.
A continuation of form alters these odds when nothing really changes, it just contunues yet odds jump up and down.
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Yeah well of course they change every week. Because every result influences the probabilities. How else is this going to work? If Chelsea win and United lose today then it'll be Chelsea below 1.4 and United will drift out to 7s or something. If the reverse happens, Chelsea will remain favourites but only marginally so. That does not mean the probabilities were incorrect.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Yeah well of course they change every week. Because every result influences the probabilities. How else is this going to work? If Chelsea win and United lose today then it'll be Chelsea below 1.4 and United will drift out to 7s or something. If the reverse happens, Chelsea will remain favourites but only marginally so. That does not mean the probabilities were incorrect.
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Its too reactive is my point. Whats odds supposed to tell us when they can change so suddenly?
I remember you saying Spurs were favourites over us due to bookies favouring Joses ability to get results v small sides etc but that thought process is obsolete one week later? It bounces around too much.
If they were truely a predictive indicator, shouldnt they take these future blips into consideration or do sides have to win every game for it to come true?
Chelsea loses to Bournemouth who they struggle against every year and we win away v Everton which we seem to do most years.
None of that would be out of the ordinary yet it it were to happen these odds would drastically change and we will again be told these new odds are a great guide etc etc.
 
cyberman said:
1) Its too reactive is my point. Whats odds supposed to tell us when they can change so suddenly?

2) I remember you saying Spurs were favourites over us due to bookies favouring Joses ability to get results v small sides etc but that thought process is obsolete one week later? It bounces around too much.
If they were truely a predictive indicator, shouldnt they take these future blips into consideration or do sides have to win every game for it to come true?

3) Chelsea loses to Bournemouth who they struggle against every year and we win away v Everton which we seem to do most years.
None of that would be out of the ordinary yet it it were to happen these odds would drastically change and we will again be told these new odds are a great guide etc etc.
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1) They tell us the (approximate) true probabality of an outcome happening at this point in time. New information will change that probability. If the entire Leicester team catch Corona virus tomorrow, they'll suddenly be favourites to drop out of the top four. The initial odds were still correct though because that fact wasn't known at the time.

2) That definitely wasn't me. I think I expressed my suprise at that because I think United quite clearly are a better side than Spurs. The "future blips" are taken into consideration. United are expected to get about 1.3 points on average at Goodison later based on current market prices. So if they draw or lose, their price has to drift and if they win, it has to shorten (ignoring the other results for now). But again, that doesn't make the current price incorrect.

3) That is largely relevant. I know supporters love these sort of stats and Sky have to mention every game for how long X haven't won at Anfield/Stamford Bridge or whatever but there is no correlation. Chelsea don't struggle against Bournemouth for some reason and United don't perform better at Goodison relative to the actual team strengths. It's just variance and statistical noise. Unless there is a specific tactical match-up (Liverpool at Atletico comes to mind last week) that shifts actual team strengths. Line-ups fluctuate way too much and the sample-size is way too small. There is pretty much zero relevance of how Chelsea performed at Bournemouth five season ago to today's match.
 
Irwin99 said:
Leicester doing their best to throw it away. Their next two games are pretty winnable in theory but they have to be careful

I thought Everton might be in the mix with a slim chance but they're next 5 or 6 games are really tough. Don't think they have a chance to be honest. Arsenal would have to go on one hell of a run.



The inconsistency of these teams is crazy.
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The inconsistencies of the sides challenging for the top four is why you can't rule Everton or even Arsenal out. Definitely would've favoured Arsenal's chances if Wenger was there.

Think Wolves' run in may work in their favour.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Semi-regular odds update (top quotes):

Leicester: 1.27
Chelsea: 1.69
United: 4.00
Spurs: 6.88
Wolves: 11
Sheffield: 21

United have closed in after recent results but remain big underdogs with an implied chance of <25%. There are markets for a top five finish as well but they aren't very liquid so can only give a rough estimation of the true probabilities.
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Rightly big underdogs. Looks like only United of those teams will have to deal with European football also. Key for the run-in will be panel strength in depth so touch wood no more injuries.
 
always_hoping said:
Rightly big underdogs. Looks like only United of those teams will have to deal with European football also. Key for the run-in will be panel strength in depth so touch wood no more injuries.
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Sadly given the state of our medical team and our propensity for injuries I can see this unravelling our season (much like in 2015/16)
 
Top 4 is tricky but top 5 we should easily get. After next 3 games we have easy( for PL standard) run of games. We have too good squad to feck this up
 
Guy Incognito said:
The inconsistencies of the sides challenging for the top four is why you can't rule Everton or even Arsenal out. Definitely would've favoured Arsenal's chances if Wenger was there.

Think Wolves' run in may work in their favour.
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I just don't see Everton having the quality though, even if they win tomorrow they have Chelsea, Liverpool, and a few other big teams coming straight after. It's a hellish run in.

Wolves should definitely fancy their chances if they can keep their best players fit.
 
RedDevilRoshi said:
Precisely. I think Leicester are now dragged into this.

Not long ago, they looked pretty certain for top 4, now you aren’t 100% percent sure.
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I never rated Leicester squad like most of Caf. They have couple of really good players and very good manager but since day one my thoughts are that they are overachieving.
Although tbh i doubt that they will slip on 6th place. For 5th place it will be us or Spurs.
 
duffer said:
Win tomorrow and we're 3 points off of 3rd. We can't drop points against Bournemouth again, can we?
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Should have spent big in January. You have your board to blame.

Ed Woodward and the glazers knows the importance of finishing in a champions league spot, so we spent big in January. Fernandes and Ighalo will ensure we will finish in a champions league spot next season.

I am glad we have Woodward and Glazers here at United. It is a ridiculous decision by your board to not spend. However, I m not complaining:lol:. Arsenal might finish above you at this point :lol:

Edit: Might have spoken to soon :lol:. But points still stand. I think you will falter
 
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