Top 4 Race 19/20 | duffer: "We [Chelsea] are getting 3rd. Despite what the lunatics in here think, Man United are not all that."

We should have rotated more yesterday and we could be in trouble now.

If we win against West Ham we look good but I can see them getting a result against our tired squad.

An Arsenal win tomorrow would be good for us.
 
Weird situation to have United clear favourites for 3rd on the exchanges and modelling, but Chelsea clear favourites for top 4 out of the three clubs chasing the two spots. There’s so much riding on that Leicester vs United match.

At the start of the season Leicester would have bit your arm off for a final day home match for CL football. A draw might still be enough for them too. I see Leicester actually did fine at Spurs and won on XG. I know they were 3-0 down, but Spurs didn’t carve them open and create quality chances repeatedly. Even if United play well there and deservedly get what they need, it is unlikely we will enjoy the journey.
 
In an ideal world we could thump Westham by 5 which gives us a bit of a cushion. We could then lose by 2 at Leicester and still make it.

But given how we have dropped our form and how well WHU are playing any win will do. Just means we can't afford to lose at Leicester. Shouldn't have come down to this but this is life.
 
I’m also loving the idea of United winning by two goals late on, and taking defenders off for forwards, and sending De Gea up for set pieces. This match could be absolute chaos near the end with West Ham already essentially safe and United wanting specific scorelines.
 
Given that Leicester are our last match, if we're forgetting 3rd & looking simply at getting 4th, is there really too much difference between beating West Ham 1-0 or drawing 1-1?

Either way vs Leicester they would then need to beat us to get 4th. If we get a win or draw, then we get 4th.
 
Svartzonker said:
We should have rotated more yesterday and we could be in trouble now.

If we win against West Ham we look good but I can see them getting a result against our tired squad.

An Arsenal win tomorrow would be good for us.
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Why?
 
LawCharltonBest said:
Given that Leicester are our last match, if we're forgetting 3rd & looking simply at getting 4th, is there really too much difference between beating West Ham 1-0 or drawing 1-1?

Either way vs Leicester they would then need to beat us to get 4th. If we get a win or draw, then we get 4th.
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If it was only us and Leicester involved then there wouldn't have been much difference (apart from confidence). But Chelsea are also involved in the race.

If we beat WH and lose to Leicester then Chelsea simply have to beat either Pool or Wolves. Two draws for Chelsea won't be enough.

Whereas if we draw vs WH and lose at Leicester then all Chelsea need is a point from either games.

Simply put, Chelsea matching us for 1 point is likely. Chelsea matching us for 3 points becomes slightly more difficult.
 
TMDaines said:
Weird situation to have United clear favourites for 3rd on the exchanges and modelling, but Chelsea clear favourites for top 4 out of the three clubs chasing the two spots. There’s so much riding on that Leicester vs United match.

At the start of the season Leicester would have bit your arm off for a final day home match for CL football. A draw might still be enough for them too. I see Leicester actually did fine at Spurs and won on XG. I know they were 3-0 down, but Spurs didn’t carve them open and create quality chances repeatedly. Even if United play well there and deservedly get what they need, it is unlikely we will enjoy the journey.
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Did you watch the game or just look up stats?

Tottenham comfortably swatted them in the first half with some superb breaks and play.
Second half they just retreated. Not sure if that biased the stats but make no mistake it was a very comfy win.
 
ZolaWasMagic said:
Anything can happen on the day of course, but if Utd play like they did against Soton Palace and today, especially today, im not so sure you'll beat west ham tbh. West Ham if they are safe will just play with no pressure and the shackles off.
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Heh, you hope.

Very real chance Chelsea will finish outside top four.
 
Sandikan said:
Play Villa.
Would make Wham safe.
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To all intents and purposes, West Ham are already safe.

Villa would need to overturn 14 goal difference in 2 games as well as win both.

EDIT: And Watford would need 3 points from City and Arsenal whilst also closing 10 goal difference or 4 points from those 2.
 
Svartzonker said:
We should have rotated more yesterday and we could be in trouble now.

If we win against West Ham we look good but I can see them getting a result against our tired squad.

An Arsenal win tomorrow would be good for us.
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Doesn't even need to be a win. If Villa draw, West Ham are confirmed safe.

But still, Villa would need to comfortably beat Arsenal while we destroy West Ham. Then, Villa would need a comprehensive victory over West Ham on the final day too. 14 Goal Difference at the moment!

And even on top of that, Watford would need 4 Points from City/Arsenal and Brighton probably need another point too. West Ham is like 99% safe already IMO.
 
dwd said:
Why Arsenal?
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They are 100% safe if Villa loses points against Arsenal, but at the moment they are like 99% secure. It will not make a huge difference since their GD is much better.
 
Sandikan said:
Did you watch the game or just look up stats?

Tottenham comfortably swatted them in the first half with some superb breaks and play.
Second half they just retreated. Not sure if that biased the stats but make no mistake it was a very comfy win.
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Leicester certainly didn't collapse. They didn't look like overturning a multiple goal deficit once behind, but they weren't particularly bad either. A 3-0 loss flattered Spurs IMO. At Bournemouth they were horrendous second half, but against Sheff Utd and Spurs they've been fine. I certainly don't think they look done.

It's worth pointing that for all the talk of Leicester being mentally done. They are yet to concede at home since the restart, scoring five goals across their three games.
 
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LawCharltonBest said:
Given that Leicester are our last match, if we're forgetting 3rd & looking simply at getting 4th, is there really too much difference between beating West Ham 1-0 or drawing 1-1?

Either way vs Leicester they would then need to beat us to get 4th. If we get a win or draw, then we get 4th.
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No, but a win against West Ham does mean Chelsea have to find a win to finish ahead of us, so we shouldn't be settling for a draw. It's an interesting dilemma as to whether we push for a couple of late goals if we find ourselves only winning 1-0 or 2-1 with 15 mins to go.
 
This will obviously be much clearer come Wednesday night.

But if we beat West Ham and Chelsea lose to Liverpool, then a draw next Sunday guarantees us 3rd.
If the above happens and Chelsea lose to Wolves too, then Leicester get 4th.

Obviously any 'hope' of us and leicester being able to play out a 0-0 draw and both be happy is now gone with them losing to spurs.

Still annoying that the 97th Minute goal against Southampton happened. We would've had the chance to wrap it up on Wednesday against West Ham had we seen that out
 
TMDaines said:
No, but a win against West Ham does mean Chelsea have to find a win to finish ahead of us, so we shouldn't be settling for a draw. It's an interesting dilemma as to whether we push for a couple of late goals if we find ourselves only winning 1-0 or 2-1 with 15 mins to go.
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We're equal on goal difference with Leicester. The more we score the better for us cos Leicester will have to beat us by that many to go above us. We should try to hammer the hammers by as many goals as possible.
 
Svartzonker said:
They are 100% safe if Villa loses points against Arsenal, but at the moment they are like 99% secure. It will not make a huge difference since their GD is much better.
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Come on! WHU are safe. The only way they can go down is if Villa overturn a 14 goal difference in their last 2 games (against Arsenal and WHU), Watford overturn a get 4 points from their games against Arsenal and City. The chances of that happening are close to 0
 
Yeah
Svartzonker said:
They are 100% safe if Villa loses points against Arsenal, but at the moment they are like 99% secure. It will not make a huge difference since their GD is much better.
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I think the big goal difference means West Ham are safe anyway to be honest.
 
UpWithRivers said:
We're equal on goal difference with Leicester. The more we score the better for us cos Leicester will have to beat us by that many to go above us. We should try to hammer the hammers by as many goals as possible.
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Nope. They'd have to beat us by half as many goals as we beat West Ham by
 
So what's the consensus, we need to beat the Hammers 3:0 so we can lose to Leicester 1:0? :D

If we beat West Ham and Chelsea loses to Liverpool we can afford a draw at Leicester?
 
duffer said:
Do you think Chelsea will finish outside the top 4?
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I think you'll make it but it's not totally implausible that you won't. Two draws in your last two games, United beat West Ham, Leicester beat United - none of these results would be particularly shocking.
 
Siorac said:
I think you'll make it but it's not totally implausible that you won't. Two draws in your last two games, United beat West Ham, Leicester beat United - none of these results would be particularly shocking.
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On their own, none of those results would be shocking. All together? You're looking at crazy odds.
 
sewey89 said:
Nope. They'd have to beat us by half as many goals as we beat West Ham by
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What? I dont get it. if our goal difference is both 28 and we beat hammers 3-0 then they would need to beat us by 3 to be equal no? What am I being missing
 
Squeaky Bumtime said:
So what's the consensus, we need to beat the Hammers 3:0 so we can lose to Leicester 1:0? :D

If we beat West Ham and Chelsea loses to Liverpool we can afford a draw at Leicester?
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If we beat or even draw with West Ham we can afford a draw at Leicester (to finish above them) regardless of what Chelsea do.
 
We can't discount the tough fixtures Chelsea face. I'm quite certain that pool will turn up after being well rested and on the day they receive their trophy. Not to mention that wolves are absolutely no pushover.

If Chelsea manage to get 6 points off those games, then fair fecks to them
 
duffer said:
On their own, none of those results would be shocking. All together? You're looking at crazy odds.
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Sure but any combination of specific results is unlikely but one of them will happen. You'd get similarly crazy-ish odds for, say, Chelsea losing to Liverpool, United beating West Ham and drawing at Leicester, Chelsea beating Wolves. Or any other reasonable combination of these four games.

I think you'll make it because there are more combinations that end with Chelsea in the top 4 than those that'd see you out.
 
duffer said:
Do you think Chelsea will finish outside the top 4?
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I think I’d be worried at having to play Liverpool and Wolves.

Not from yourself, but I see a lot of arrogance around Chelsea which is slightly misplaced when set against your post lockdown performances against West Ham, Palace and Sheff Utd.

I honestly don’t know how it’s going to pan out, such is the unpredictability of this segment of the league.
 
duffer said:
Do you think Chelsea will finish outside the top 4?
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I don't think you will finish outside top 4 but there is realistic chance of that, not even impossible situation where Chelsea are expected to lose against bottom teams.

Chelsea play Liverpool and Wolves.
Leicester play ManUtd
ManUtd play West Ham and Leicester.

If Chelsea 0 or 1 or even 2 points from next 2 games, then you will end up with 63, 64, 65 points respectively.

So to match that ManUtd need just 3 points (game against West Ham)
Leicester need 3 points, them beating Manutd is not impossible either with them having week rest and ManUtd have to play vs West Ham in midweek.

If chelsea get 0 or 1 points then all Leicester and Manutd need is 1 point.

I dont think this will happen but it's not some impossible scenario either.
 
Beat West Ham by as many goals as possible. Don't lie back on lead if we go ahead keep pushing for more goals right to the end. Ole has to drill this into players.
 
TMDaines said:
Weird situation to have United clear favourites for 3rd on the exchanges and modelling, but Chelsea clear favourites for top 4 out of the three clubs chasing the two spots. There’s so much riding on that Leicester vs United match.

At the start of the season Leicester would have bit your arm off for a final day home match for CL football. A draw might still be enough for them too. I see Leicester actually did fine at Spurs and won on XG. I know they were 3-0 down, but Spurs didn’t carve them open and create quality chances repeatedly. Even if United play well there and deservedly get what they need, it is unlikely we will enjoy the journey.
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:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
UpWithRivers said:
What? I dont get it. if our goal difference is both 28 and we beat hammers 3-0 then they would need to beat us by 3 to be equal no? What am I being missing
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We play Leicester in the last game. For every GD they gain, we lose 1.
 
UpWithRivers said:
What? I dont get it. if our goal difference is both 28 and we beat hammers 3-0 then they would need to beat us by 3 to be equal no? What am I being missing
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That every goal Leicester score (+1) is a goal conceded for us (-1).
 
duffer said:
On their own, none of those results would be shocking. All together? You're looking at crazy odds.
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There's a broader side of results that see Chelsea miss out though:
  • A draw or loss for Chelsea away at Liverpool
  • A draw or loss for Chelsea at home to Wolves
  • A win for United at home to West Ham
  • A win for Leicester at home to United
Or finally:
  • A loss for Chelsea away at Liverpool
  • A loss for Chelsea at home to Wolves
  • A win or draw for United at home to West Ham
  • A win or draw for Leicester at home to United
Chelsea are favourites to finish in top 4, but they are more likely to miss out on top 4 by an order of magnitude than Leicester were in January, so it is no means guaranteed you will get there.

Edit: Made one error here.
 
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zenith said:
We can't discount the tough fixtures Chelsea face. I'm quite certain that pool will turn up after being well rested and on the day they receive their trophy. Not to mention that wolves are absolutely no pushover.

If Chelsea manage to get 6 points off those games, then fair fecks to them
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Wolves need points for EL qualification too.
 
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