Time + blind faith = Sir Alex Ferguson.

[RedSky]

Ten hag improved us in year one too. We played a better style than under Ole.

He got better results, but the lowest GD of any of our long term standing Managers. Also worth pointing out that Ole then went on a long unbeaten run of form in the PL so his team was hitting their stride. Style is subjective, personally I like to see us score goals.

​

Manager	Win %	Clean Sheets	PL Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD
Ten Hag	58.33%	19	48	28	6	14	69	59	10
LVG	54.17%	17	48	26	12	10	77	45	32
Jose	52.08%	25	48	25	17	6	77	33	44
Ole	47.92%	12	48	23	12	13	77	54	23

*This table was made after the City game, so doesn't take into account the Fulham result.

Manager​	3 Goals Scored​	4 Goals Scored​	5 Goals Scored​
Ten Hag​	6​	1​	-​
LVG​	12​	2​	-​
Jose​	6​	5​	-​
Ole​	8​	4​	1​

 

[Blood Mage]

Mental that the same people who used this argument to shield Ole are now doing so for ETH. Cult of the manager.

 

[Alex99]

So was Andre Villas-Boas. Just because someone has a couple good years in another league, with another team, doesn't mean they'll be a top manager in future. Sometimes they're just already in the right environment.

You might be right, but I don't think Villas Boas is a good comparison.

He had one good season at Porto before getting the Chelsea job, with a squad containing Hulk, Moutinho, Guarin, Falcao, Otamendi and James Rodriguez.

Porto won the league the two seasons after he left.

Ten Hag had Ajax reaching the CL semi finals and dominating Eredivisie. They've dropped off a cliff since he left.

 

[adexkola]

Mental that the same people who used this argument to shield Ole are now doing so for ETH. Cult of the manager.

Cult of the sack

 

[RedSky]

Ten Hag had Ajax reaching the CL semi finals and dominating Eredivisie. They've dropped off a cliff since he left.

They also flogged a load of their starters to be fair. Sold pretty much every single one of ETH's team.

 

[Alex99]

They also flogged a load of their starters to be fair. Sold pretty much every single one of ETH's team.

Obviously other factors are in play, but I don’t think ETH's time at Ajax is remotely comparable to the single season AVB had at Porto.

 

[el3mel]

It's starting to become worse now. People are telling us that time + faith will give you Mikel Arteta.

 

[adexkola]

This is where following US sports is beneficial, because we simply do sports operations better than ye

You have situations where it's easy to deduce that what is holding the team back from success is the coach, because the talent is on ground, and it's not a toxic environment, however the coach keeps on making bone headed decisions. Firing this coach and replacing him with someone more competent usually results in an uptick in fortunes.

Then you have situations where several coaches have been fired, with no uptick in team fortunes. The talent sucks. Multiple drafts have been blown. Then the spotlight isn't on the coach of the moment (who may underperform or overperform within a band of mediocrity). It's on the general manager. Because his inability to create any form of stable long term strategic structure dooms the effort of any competent coach or player.

And then you have situations where the ownership is useless to the point that you can place a competent GM in the seat and they'll still sabotage sport operations. At this point it doesn't matter who you hire in what position, your ship is sinking (or is already on the seabed) and usually gets risen due to some luck beyond the power of any coach or GM... usually it's a transcendent talent like Michael Jordan or Eli Manning that lifts the teams fortunes enough that forces more competent personnel in the mix to take advantage.

I'm a Bayesian on this issue. The more coaches come in here and not only underperform, but crash woefully, the more I'm convinced the solution is not a magic coach, but a strong structure where even just competent coaches can succeed or make some progression until a stronger coach comes along. And until then, until I'm clearly convinced a coach is at the end of his rope, then I'm ambivalent about sacks because I'd bet the next coach will be chewed and spat out at this club. I felt the same way about Ole and about Mourinho.

Pellegrini and Mancini won titles with Manchester City. Conte won a title with Chelsea. They aren't elite coaches. And if I suggested Pellegrini as the next coach most people would be against it. Because he's a good coach, but he's not a miracle worker. That's a problem.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

I broadly agree with that argument, but I think you're underrating Mancini and Conte quite a bit.

 

[Skills]

It's starting to become worse now. People are telling us that time + faith will give you Mikel Arteta.

 

[Carl]

It's starting to become worse now. People are telling us that time + faith will give you Mikel Arteta.

 

[Carl]

This is where following US sports is beneficial, because we simply do sports operations better than ye

You have situations where it's easy to deduce that what is holding the team back from success is the coach, because the talent is on ground, and it's not a toxic environment, however the coach keeps on making bone headed decisions. Firing this coach and replacing him with someone more competent usually results in an uptick in fortunes.

Then you have situations where several coaches have been fired, with no uptick in team fortunes. The talent sucks. Multiple drafts have been blown. Then the spotlight isn't on the coach of the moment (who may underperform or overperform within a band of mediocrity). It's on the general manager. Because his inability to create any form of stable long term strategic structure dooms the effort of any competent coach or player.

And then you have situations where the ownership is useless to the point that you can place a competent GM in the seat and they'll still sabotage sport operations. At this point it doesn't matter who you hire in what position, your ship is sinking (or is already on the seabed) and usually gets risen due to some luck beyond the power of any coach or GM... usually it's a transcendent talent like Michael Jordan or Eli Manning that lifts the teams fortunes enough that forces more competent personnel in the mix to take advantage.

I'm a Bayesian on this issue. The more coaches come in here and not only underperform, but crash woefully, the more I'm convinced the solution is not a magic coach, but a strong structure where even just competent coaches can succeed or make some progression until a stronger coach comes along. And until then, until I'm clearly convinced a coach is at the end of his rope, then I'm ambivalent about sacks because I'd bet the next coach will be chewed and spat out at this club. I felt the same way about Ole and about Mourinho.

Pellegrini and Mancini won titles with Manchester City. Conte won a title with Chelsea. They aren't elite coaches. And if I suggested Pellegrini as the next coach most people would be against it. Because he's a good coach, but he's not a miracle worker. That's a problem.

This is really great tbf.

 

[TheRedHearted]

The fact Moyes, van Gaal, Mourinho and Solskjear have gone on to do nothing to demonstrate they should have had more time should really kill that argument anyway.

We were right to get rid of them. It will be the same with ten Hag.

Nobody gets that time in todays market so there’s no way of knowing what would happen. And Moyes actually just won the Europa league with west ham, didn’t he?

 

[Alex99]

Nobody gets that time in todays market so there’s no way of knowing what would happen. And Moyes actually just won the Europa league with west ham, didn’t he?

Europa Conference League, which qualified them for the Europa League this season.

 

[SATA]

I keep seeing Mikel Arteta’s name being brought up as an example, I wouldn’t want him managing us though

 

[adexkola]

I broadly agree with that argument, but I think you're underrating Mancini and Conte quite a bit.

Upon reflection, true. More so with Mancini than Conte I think. Conte is better than his Tottenham tenure, but that part of his career furthers my point that if you're looking for a miracle worker at the coach position, a coach as good as Conte is ruled out. Which is fecking insane and untenable.

 

[Carl]

Nobody gets that time in todays market so there’s no way of knowing what would happen. And Moyes actually just won the Europa league with west ham, didn’t he?

No, he didn't (was that shit conference league thing). And what would that matter anyway? If he had, are you saying that's reason enough he should have stayed at United?

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

If City finish on their usual 100 point mark there is no title challenge, which is what they did whenever we got close to challenging

City have only finished above 90 points once in the last four seasons.

 

[Jund]

This is where following US sports is beneficial, because we simply do sports operations better than ye

You have situations where it's easy to deduce that what is holding the team back from success is the coach, because the talent is on ground, and it's not a toxic environment, however the coach keeps on making bone headed decisions. Firing this coach and replacing him with someone more competent usually results in an uptick in fortunes.

Then you have situations where several coaches have been fired, with no uptick in team fortunes. The talent sucks. Multiple drafts have been blown. Then the spotlight isn't on the coach of the moment (who may underperform or overperform within a band of mediocrity). It's on the general manager. Because his inability to create any form of stable long term strategic structure dooms the effort of any competent coach or player.

And then you have situations where the ownership is useless to the point that you can place a competent GM in the seat and they'll still sabotage sport operations. At this point it doesn't matter who you hire in what position, your ship is sinking (or is already on the seabed) and usually gets risen due to some luck beyond the power of any coach or GM... usually it's a transcendent talent like Michael Jordan or Eli Manning that lifts the teams fortunes enough that forces more competent personnel in the mix to take advantage.

I'm a Bayesian on this issue. The more coaches come in here and not only underperform, but crash woefully, the more I'm convinced the solution is not a magic coach, but a strong structure where even just competent coaches can succeed or make some progression until a stronger coach comes along. And until then, until I'm clearly convinced a coach is at the end of his rope, then I'm ambivalent about sacks because I'd bet the next coach will be chewed and spat out at this club. I felt the same way about Ole and about Mourinho.

Pellegrini and Mancini won titles with Manchester City. Conte won a title with Chelsea. They aren't elite coaches. And if I suggested Pellegrini as the next coach most people would be against it. Because he's a good coach, but he's not a miracle worker. That's a problem.

An actually wonderful summary of the situation we're facing. Kudos!

 

[Taribo's Gap]

I keep seeing Mikel Arteta’s name being brought up as an example, I wouldn’t want him managing us though

I have invoked Arteta in these types of conversations before. It's not because I think he is the second coming or anything. It's moreso to use his tenure as an instructive example of how to identify indicia of incremental progress upon which you can judge and assess a manager. It could be results, cohesiveness of play style, direction of squad rebuild or recomposition, or demonstrated improvement in effort, team spirit and commitment from the players, etc.

Arsenal is not United, so you never have a like-for-like comparison, but there are not many temporally relevant (i.e. not when United hired Ferguson) examples of big clubs that have afforded their struggling managers the patience and time to make progress, so the universe from which you can draw comparisons is quite small.

 

[Taribo's Gap]

City have only finished above 90 points once in the last four seasons.

90 points is pretty much their baseline now though. In two of those seasons, they had wrapped up the title early and slowed down in order to focus on Champions League.

 

[Chesterlestreet]

No, you cannot.

Well, you could argue that it meant the abrupt and premature end to what was - according to some - the "plan".

Which was...to have LVG "groom" Ryan Giggs for the position. The position of "manager", that is.

Whether that was a bad thing is another matter. *

* I mean, whether it was a bad thing that the "LVG grooming Giggs" scheme never came to fruition or not is...a question, I guess. I know what my answer would be, but it is a question.

 

[Big Ben Foster]

It's starting to become worse now. People are telling us that time + faith will give you Mikel Arteta.

 

[mu4c_20le]

ETH lost games
SAF lost games

 

[RedBanker]

Nobody has said this, and I don't think anybody logical thinks this.

This just seems like another thread to take digs at those that don't want Ten Hag to be sacked.

Literally 100s have shouted this loud and proud for two years during the farcical reign of OGS and are doing the same now. And yes, those who don't want ETH to be sacked are WUMs and Oppo fans and deserve all the digs that come their way.

 

[VP89]

He got better results, but the lowest GD of any of our long term standing Managers. Also worth pointing out that Ole then went on a long unbeaten run of form in the PL so his team was hitting their stride. Style is subjective, personally I like to see us score goals.

​

Manager	Win %	Clean Sheets	PL Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD
Ten Hag	58.33%	19	48	28	6	14	69	59	10
LVG	54.17%	17	48	26	12	10	77	45	32
Jose	52.08%	25	48	25	17	6	77	33	44
Ole	47.92%	12	48	23	12	13	77	54	23

*This table was made after the City game, so doesn't take into account the Fulham result.

Manager​	3 Goals Scored​	4 Goals Scored​	5 Goals Scored​
Ten Hag​	6​	1​	-​
LVG​	12​	2​	-​
Jose​	6​	5​	-​
Ole​	8​	4​	1​

Ole played his best season in an empty stadium. I think if he had full capacity he'd feel pressure moments in adversity with much greater effect.

GD can be put into context though. Whilst a bulk of it is ten hags fault, I don't think any of our previous managers faced their entire back four out for extended periods.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

You might be right, but I don't think Villas Boas is a good comparison.

He had one good season at Porto before getting the Chelsea job, with a squad containing Hulk, Moutinho, Guarin, Falcao, Otamendi and James Rodriguez.

Porto won the league the two seasons after he left.

Ten Hag had Ajax reaching the CL semi finals and dominating Eredivisie. They've dropped off a cliff since he left.

Ajax under Ten Hag had some pretty good players too.

They lost a lot of players when Ten Hag left: Antony, Mazraoui, Martinez, Gravenberch, Haller, Onana...

 

[redflash]

I think we just need to change our strategy and stick to it. Yes it needs time but looking at SAF he remodelled the club based on the ideals of Sir Matt. In his early tenure fergie recruited some of the best young players in the country to the academy which bore fruit in the 90s as he had a spine of extremely talented young players who understood the philosophy of the club and its ideals.

Ten hag can do the same but to do that he needs to do better with the academy and get it back to being "the academy" to go to to ensure we get the best talent. This takes a lot of time minimum 3-5 years. Then maybe we can get a squad of players who look like they actually give a shit and it'll make 1st team recruitment easier as well need less volume and can put our budgets into 1/2 world class players per summer but with the right profile to fit the team/club.

Issue with all that is our fan base demands instant and constant success. We will never give anyone time to build something up.

So taking it back to op I think the equation is slightly wrong.

Time + a strategy which we can have faith in = success

Imo

 

[bosnian_red]

Time is valid. Time isn't 3 years. It's not blind faith, it's seeing what is going on and what is the reason for underperformance, will it improve with the same manager/can they figure out how to fix it, are there signs worth giving faith to.

You don't give them 3 years for no reason. You don't keep them if they are losing the squad and the managers tactics are consistently the problem. They have to earn their time, but time is required to transform into a top team. But there are many steps to there and you should see progress on the way to that.

 

[RedSky]

Ole played his best season in an empty stadium. I think if he had full capacity he'd feel pressure moments in adversity with much greater effect.

GD can be put into context though. Whilst a bulk of it is ten hags fault, I don't think any of our previous managers faced their entire back four out for extended periods.

That's conjecture and nothing more. Every other team played under the same conditions.

Our players are well known for being sick notes we always seem to go through an injury crisis. Shaw had lengthy injuries, Jones, Smalling and Bailly all had lengthy periods of injuries. In fact the only defensive players we've had recently that didnt have any injury related problems has been Lindelof and Maguire. All our other defensive players were always in and out of the medical room.

At least ETH has strength in depth in CB, sure Lindelof and Maguire aren't the best CBs as proven in recent years, but they're hardly a colossal nightmare. They can do a job.

 

[adexkola]

Literally 100s have shouted this loud and proud for two years during the farcical reign of OGS and are doing the same now. And yes, those who don't want ETH to be sacked are WUMs and Oppo fans and deserve all the digs that come their way.

This would include match going fans I'm sure. WUMs and oppo fans that attend games of a club they don't support

 

[Alex99]

Ajax under Ten Hag had some pretty good players too.

They lost a lot of players when Ten Hag left: Antony, Mazraoui, Martinez, Gravenberch, Haller, Onana...

As I said in another post, there are clearly other factors, but the general point is that ETH at Ajax is not comparable to Villas Boas at Porto.

 

[Big Ben Foster]

I think we just need to change our strategy and stick to it. Yes it needs time but looking at SAF he remodelled the club based on the ideals of Sir Matt. In his early tenure fergie recruited some of the best young players in the country to the academy which bore fruit in the 90s as he had a spine of extremely talented young players who understood the philosophy of the club and its ideals.

Ten hag can do the same but to do that he needs to do better with the academy and get it back to being "the academy" to go to to ensure we get the best talent. This takes a lot of time minimum 3-5 years. Then maybe we can get a squad of players who look like they actually give a shit and it'll make 1st team recruitment easier as well need less volume and can put our budgets into 1/2 world class players per summer but with the right profile to fit the team/club.

Issue with all that is our fan base demands instant and constant success. We will never give anyone time to build something up.

So taking it back to op I think the equation is slightly wrong.

Time + a strategy which we can have faith in = success

Imo

Instant and constant success? Moyes and Ole were being clapped off the pitch days before they were sacked.

We are the most forgiving and passive fanbase in all of football.

 

[Fortitude]

Time is valid. Time isn't 3 years. It's not blind faith, it's seeing what is going on and what is the reason for underperformance, will it improve with the same manager/can they figure out how to fix it, are there signs worth giving faith to.

You don't give them 3 years for no reason. You don't keep them if they are losing the squad and the managers tactics are consistently the problem. They have to earn their time, but time is required to transform into a top team. But there are many steps to there and you should see progress on the way to that.

Time is valid, but in no part of your post are you advocating for blind faith. Any manager who is objectively building towards something absolutely deserves more time. If it can be objectively cited that something constructive is being worked toward, it's no longer a matter of blind faith. There are countless posters on here giving no reasoning toward the time aspect, even overlooking what's happening because: time.

The thread has taken on a life of its own and pivoted to Arteta, but there are countless posts invoking the spirit of Ferguson, not Arteta. It makes no logic sense.

 

[redflash]

Instant and constant success? Moyes and Ole were being clapped off the pitch days before they were sacked.

We are the most forgiving and passive fanbase in all of football.

Our match going fans are usually great and supportive of the manager so yes your point is correct. We sang and cheered all the managers who have now gone....but our club has a lot more fans than the c65k who attend the matches. Many of them were wanting moves out from the moment he was announced, hated lvg, wanted mourinho until he got here then said he was a clueless dinosour, said ole was out of his depth (even when he got us to 2nd), and are now circling on EtH

 

[Skills]

Instant and constant success? Moyes and Ole were being clapped off the pitch days before they were sacked.

We are the most forgiving and passive fanbase in all of football.

Self destructive. It's funny how our fans want us to exactly what Liverpool fans often want us to do. United in wanting the same thing for this club.

 

[bosnian_red]

Time is valid, but in no part of your post are you advocating for blind faith. Any manager who is objectively building towards something absolutely deserves more time. If it can be objectively cited that something constructive is being worked toward, it's no longer a matter of blind faith. There are countless posters on here giving no reasoning toward the time aspect, even overlooking what's happening because: time.

The thread has taken on a life of its own and pivoted to Arteta, but there are countless posts invoking the spirit of Ferguson, not Arteta. It makes no logic sense.

I mean, those 2 are examples of why sometimes it's hard or not obvious to see what the progress is. Sometimes they are making progress but things aren't clicking or luck not falling our way. I think that's partially our case right now. But at the same time, I'm far from convinced with what we are building towards for the prem specifically. It's a tough league, and you need a system that will be superior to opposition systems even if your players might not be superior. Other leagues you can plan a system based on leaning on the logic of having better players to then put yourself in a position of really dominating.

You can't do that sort of system if you don't have the better players always. And I think that's a big part of the Ten Hag issue. I do believe most of the players are supporting him, I think we've been royally fecked by refs, luck, injuries this season, I think the scandals and never ending takeover has created too much uncertainty and we've long passed the tipping point there and it's having a big effect on the team. So I have a lot of confidence that better times are ahead, probably starting in the new year assuming the injuries ease, and takeover is done, and we can make some sales. I don't however think that when we improve/sort ourselves up, that we'll be on a path to challenge Pep/Klopp. I think top 4 competitor level is the peak of what Ten Hag can build, no matter the players. There's just been too many systemic issues on display. There's been reasons for faith, reasons for expecting a big improvement... But reasons for seeing a transformation to a title challenger under him? Not for me on that.

 

[VP89]

That's conjecture and nothing more. Every other team played under the same conditions.

Our players are well known for being sick notes we always seem to go through an injury crisis. Shaw had lengthy injuries, Jones, Smalling and Bailly all had lengthy periods of injuries. In fact the only defensive players we've had recently that didnt have any injury related problems has been Lindelof and Maguire. All our other defensive players were always in and out of the medical room.

At least ETH has strength in depth in CB, sure Lindelof and Maguire aren't the best CBs as proven in recent years, but they're hardly a colossal nightmare. They can do a job.

Every team can have injuries sure. But how long did Ole have his entire back 4 plus his back up left back out for? I think this is an important consideration considering what our manager has had in terms of injuries this season.

And regarding Ole, yes other teams had the same circumstance. But his side was mentally weak, and it showed the minute they got to a semi final or final, or when the stadiums got full and pressure mounted with expectation.

 

[Revan]

He got better results, but the lowest GD of any of our long term standing Managers. Also worth pointing out that Ole then went on a long unbeaten run of form in the PL so his team was hitting their stride. Style is subjective, personally I like to see us score goals.

​

Manager	Win %	Clean Sheets	PL Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD
Ten Hag	58.33%	19	48	28	6	14	69	59	10
LVG	54.17%	17	48	26	12	10	77	45	32
Jose	52.08%	25	48	25	17	6	77	33	44
Ole	47.92%	12	48	23	12	13	77	54	23

*This table was made after the City game, so doesn't take into account the Fulham result.

Manager​	3 Goals Scored​	4 Goals Scored​	5 Goals Scored​
Ten Hag​	6​	1​	-​
LVG​	12​	2​	-​
Jose​	6​	5​	-​
Ole​	8​	4​	1​

To be fair, it is not even necessarily the best results. Sure, he has the highest win rate, but he also has the highest lose rate, and consequently the lowest draw rate. Considering that a win gives 3 points, and a draw gives you 1, draws matter too. So after 48 matches, the number of points they got is:

1) Mourinho - 92 points (+44 GD)
2) LVG - 90 points (+32 GD)
3) EtH - 90 points (+10 GD)
4) Ole - 81 points (+23 GD)

So Mourinho had marginally the best results. LVG and EtH got the same number of points, but LvG ahead in GD. Ole quite far from them gaining the lowest number of points.

 

[Fortitude]

I mean, those 2 are examples of why sometimes it's hard or not obvious to see what the progress is. Sometimes they are making progress but things aren't clicking or luck not falling our way. I think that's partially our case right now. But at the same time, I'm far from convinced with what we are building towards for the prem specifically. It's a tough league, and you need a system that will be superior to opposition systems even if your players might not be superior. Other leagues you can plan a system based on leaning on the logic of having better players to then put yourself in a position of really dominating.

You can't do that sort of system if you don't have the better players always. And I think that's a big part of the Ten Hag issue. I do believe most of the players are supporting him, I think we've been royally fecked by refs, luck, injuries this season, I think the scandals and never ending takeover has created too much uncertainty and we've long passed the tipping point there and it's having a big effect on the team. So I have a lot of confidence that better times are ahead, probably starting in the new year assuming the injuries ease, and takeover is done, and we can make some sales. I don't however think that when we improve/sort ourselves up, that we'll be on a path to challenge Pep/Klopp. I think top 4 competitor level is the peak of what Ten Hag can build, no matter the players. There's just been too many systemic issues on display. There's been reasons for faith, reasons for expecting a big improvement... But reasons for seeing a transformation to a title challenger under him? Not for me on that.

Yep agree with all of that.