It was discussed many times in this thread back in January, have a search through the thread. The contract that the EU have with AZ's agreement has the delivery down as 'best efforts' which is why the timeframes of delivery can't be litigated, and why VdL is having to use article 122 to invoke some form of control/power over AZ. If the legal agreement with AZ was watertight, then we wouldn't have seen anything public on this, it would have just gone straight to a court
Italy have already blocked an export of AZ vaccines to Australia, so yes the banning of exports is happening already.
Take heed of your own advice please. "Won't end well." Have a word with yourself. Do you struggle to debate?
The EU haven't done the same in their contract with AZ, which is the issue and point here. Their whole contract with AZ has so many holes within it that essentially it reads more like an EU directive, than a contract on procurement. The EU contract aims for something similar on domestic production like the UK contract has but is less specific and precise about manufacturing capacity. This is purely why we're seeing VdL having to look at invoking article 122 of the treaty. Contract is here for reference -
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_21_302
Your point on grace periods, although linked because of the parties in the discussion, are nothing to do with vaccine distribution and the contracts surrounding it, it's probably best to keep that to the Brexit thread as the rabbit hole has been well and truly opened in there. This isn't a EU vs UK point of discussion here might I add, it's EU vs AZ. I'm firmly on the side of AZ here, that they're in a hugely difficult position of supplying a market where supply is limited, and demand is sky high, combined with providing something at cost (which is a rarity for such a developed territory), and they are performing to the terms of the contract that has been agreed, I struggle to see why VdL has any complaints.
Here is an interesting opinion piece, on Germany specifically, which broadly covers my view/position on the situation.