The vaccines | vaxxed boosted unvaxxed? New poll

[Pogue Mahone]

@Tony Babangida or anyone else in very clued up on vaccines, I’m struggling to get my head around how you power these studies. The total number of cases seem absolutely tiny compared to the size of the study.

If you were testing a treatment for heart disease you would only recruit people who had heart disease. So a small difference in the number of outcomes could be enough to give you a statistical significance.

How can anyone say with confidence that if you get, say, 10 cases in the placebo arm vs 80 cases in the active arm that this difference isn’t down to more people being exposed to the virus in the active arm? Obviously you hope the exposure is similar but you can’t be certain and it seems weird to be drawing such strong conclusions based on differences of 80 cases from 80,000 subjects.

 

[Cloud7]

I think I'll be taking my leave from this discussion now. I have repeated multiple times that:

A) I am very much in favor of this vaccine being produced, and distributed as widely as possible. I will encourage all my patients to get it if/when it becomes available.

B) If it is required for travel or my work I will be happy to get the vaccine.

I've stated this multiple times and yet my views are still being attacked. I have clearly said that I'm not disputing the evidence in terms of it being put into practice. This is purely my own personal view that I'd prefer this to be given some time before I get it voluntarily.

 

[UnofficialDevil]

Yep! can't wait. Imagine life like it was before Covid. I'd be so happy!

 

[11101]

Ill take it when the line gets down to me in a couple of years, by which time many millions will have had it and we will know everything about it.

As a young person with no underlying health issues, I would not want to be first in line. The risk of unknown side effects outweighs the risk the virus itself brings. If I was 80 with poor lungs, I'd think differently.

 

[Tony Babangida]

@Tony Babangida or anyone else in very clued up on vaccines, I’m struggling to get my head around how you power these studies. The total number of cases seem absolutely tiny compared to the size of the study.

If you were testing a treatment for heart disease you would only recruit people who had heart disease. So a small difference in the number of outcomes could be enough to give you a statistical significance.

How can anyone say with confidence that if you get, say, 10 cases in the placebo arm vs 80 cases in the active arm that this difference isn’t down to more people being exposed to the virus in the active arm? Obviously you hope the exposure is similar but you can’t be certain and it seems weird to be drawing such strong conclusions based on differences of 80 cases from 80,000 subjects.

I don't know, but after a bit of googling it seems the answer is stats methods that are beyond me. Looks like they calculate something called "conditional power"; the probability that the final study result will be statistically significant, given the data observed thus far. I wonder if now they have released the promising results everyone in the trial will start behaving as if they are immune, including the placebo arm!

 

[DJ Jeff]

Ill take it when the line gets down to me in a couple of years, by which time many millions will have had it and we will know everything about it.

As a young person with no underlying health issues, I would not want to be first in line. The risk of unknown side effects outweighs the risk the virus itself brings. If I was 80 with poor lungs, I'd think differently.

indeed. I only wish it had come soon enough to save John Prine and his age bracket!

 

[balaks]

Ill get it as soon as possible.

 

[balaks]

Ill take it when the line gets down to me in a couple of years, by which time many millions will have had it and we will know everything about it.

As a young person with no underlying health issues, I would not want to be first in line. The risk of unknown side effects outweighs the risk the virus itself brings. If I was 80 with poor lungs, I'd think differently.

Its not just about you though is it? If you delay getting the vaccine you are a potential carrier passing it on to people who may not be young and fit.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Its not just about you though is it? If you delay getting the vaccine you are a potential carrier passing it on to people who may not be young and fit.

If the roll-out goes to plan then anyone who is not young and fit will have been vaccinated long before him.

Having said that, it’s weird the way so many young people in this thread don’t want to risk taking a vaccine that hasn’t killed a single one out of the 80,000+ trial subjects but seem prepared to take their chances with a virus that kills at least 1 in 1000 in their age group who get infected (and puts many more in ICU)

 

[groovyalbert]

Damn

No Sancho next summer.

 

[Reapersoul20]

Hook it to my veins. When it's gone through the full scientific process it will be as safe as can be. I'll take two.

I am in my thirties though so prolly not gonna be till Q3/4 '21.

 

[Raoul]

In a few weeks apparently. Pretty incredible if true.

 

[Chief123]

I've read on twitter that the trial showing 90% efficacy does not include anyone older than 55 or with any preexisting conditions like asthma, COPD, obesity etc.

I guess the hope is that the ones that it does work for will bring about some element of herd immunity which will decrease the risk of those who are vulnerable in getting infected.

 

[Tony Babangida]

In a few weeks apparently. Pretty incredible if true.

For everything America has got wrong they have been absolutely amazing regarding the vaccine development. Operation warp speed is unprecedented. Shame they have withdrawn from the WHO vaccine framework, but maybe that will now change.

 

[Raoul]

For everything America has got wrong they have been absolutely amazing regarding the vaccine development. Operation warp speed is unprecedented. Shame they have withdrawn from the WHO vaccine framework, but maybe that will now change.

I think Biden said the US will be rejoining the WHO.

 

[Smores]

I'm undecided right now, i usually suffer some adverse side effects from a flu jab and I'm expecting I'd get the same from this. I'll need to weigh it up but i imagine I'll take the risk and get it in the end.

 

[pocco]

Realistically speaking, if the "rest of the population" are only expected to get it by the end of next year, are we talking about lockown(s) going on now until 2021/2022 when everybody is vaccinated?

 

[jojojo]

Realistically speaking, if the "rest of the population" are only expected to get it by the end of next year, are we talking about lockown(s) going on now until 2021/2022 when everybody is vaccinated?

If the vaccine works as well as they hope and it's safe and effective in the high risk groups then a lot of the reason for lockdowns (like overwhelmed hospitals and massive daily excess deaths) become less pressing. If it comes down to "influenza like" in terms of the number of serious cases and deaths then I don't see any government doing lockdowns or restricting businesses. They might keep pushing the public health message on social distancing, handwashing etc and maintain rules on facemasks etc, but they'll be trying to restart the economy, if they can.

Travel restrictions and selective quarantine etc might continue for longer though. Ideally, between the vaccine and some quick/efficient test stations we'll move pretty fast towards something that we will feel a lot more normal.

 

[Wibble]

I've read on twitter that the trial showing 90% efficacy does not include anyone older than 55 or with any preexisting conditions like asthma, COPD, obesity etc.

I saw that those over 65 had fewer mild side effects so I assume that they must have included older people in the trials. That said older people usually have a poorer immune response to a vaccine so it is possible they have excluded their results.

30% of US trail subjects and 43% worldwide came from diverse ethnic backgrounds.

 

[Wibble]

If the vaccine works as well as they hope and it's safe and effective in the high risk groups then a lot of the reason for lockdowns (like overwhelmed hospitals and massive daily excess deaths) become less pressing. If it comes down to "influenza like" in terms of the number of serious cases and deaths then I don't see any government doing lockdowns or restricting businesses. They might keep pushing the public health message on social distancing, handwashing etc and maintain rules on facemasks etc, but they'll be trying to restart the economy, if they can.

Travel restrictions and selective quarantine etc might continue for longer though. Ideally, between the vaccine and some quick/efficient test stations we'll move pretty fast towards something that we will feel a lot more normal.

It will presumably be a gradual thing and partly dependent on the starting point. Places like Australia, NZ and presumably Taiwan will want to vaccine as rapidly as possible and then only allow those with a valid vaccination certificate in. Quarantine may well remain for quite some time. Countries where is isn't so under control will initially be more about keeping infection rates down to a level that stops the waves of infection and the associated lockdowns.

 

[Wibble]

@Tony Babangida or anyone else in very clued up on vaccines, I’m struggling to get my head around how you power these studies. The total number of cases seem absolutely tiny compared to the size of the study.

If you were testing a treatment for heart disease you would only recruit people who had heart disease. So a small difference in the number of outcomes could be enough to give you a statistical significance.

How can anyone say with confidence that if you get, say, 10 cases in the placebo arm vs 80 cases in the active arm that this difference isn’t down to more people being exposed to the virus in the active arm? Obviously you hope the exposure is similar but you can’t be certain and it seems weird to be drawing such strong conclusions based on differences of 80 cases from 80,000 subjects.

Isn't the 90% figure directly comparing those vaccinated with those on the placebo? If so with a group of more than 40k subjects a 90% difference between the groups seems like it is likely to have more than sufficient statistical power and the variation due to the random chance of infection would be minimised. Presumably we will see the actual data in due course which should provide the answer and it will then have been peer reviewed which I'm sure will look at the stats more than a little.

 

[edcunited1878]

I'd be happy to wait it out for as long as possible...unless getting the vaccine allows people to access services without disruption (e.g. traveling to different countries, entering live events, etc.).

There's still a lot of unknowns. I personally have not gotten a flu vaccine for at least 10 years, probably more. Never have I gotten the flu within that timespan. Sure I've gotten a cold, had fevers, etc.

It'll be interesting to see if people, companies, and events discriminate against people who do not have the vaccine. Just soooo many questions when you have an 'answer'.

 

[sglowrider]

Its a pump & dump exercise by Pfizer.

 

[Cheimoon]

For everything America has got wrong they have been absolutely amazing regarding the vaccine development. Operation warp speed is unprecedented. Shame they have withdrawn from the WHO vaccine framework, but maybe that will now change.

Not that it really matters, but from what I understand, early development was doen by BioNTech, which is a German company. So it's rather a US/German vaccine if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Tony Babangida]

Not that it really matters, but from what I understand, early development was doen by BioNTech, which is a German company. So it's rather a US/German vaccine if I'm not mistaken.

Yeah I actually just read that the Pfizer vaccine is not part of Warp Speed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...-is-not-function-trumps-operation-warp-speed/

Anyway, I still think the US vaccine effort has been immense; pre-manufacture, removal of financial risk from companies, and the ability to do clinical trials so quickly (and in a country unfortunately swamped with COVID).

 

[Sky1981]

Looks like good news today but it's unlikely that the general public will be getting vaccinated on a large scale for a while yet. The elderly and those on the front line are likely to be at the head of the queue.

My question is, if and when it becomes available to you, are you going to take it?

Why not? Assuming i can afford it

 

[Sky1981]

what vaccine would have a bigger return financially than this?

Wasnt covid vacinne is agreed to be given for free to all nation, whoever comes out with it first?

They'd assign local company to mass produce off course for speedy development and the prices would be small enough to cover the production cost.

 

[Tarrou]

Wasnt covid vacinne is agreed to be given for free to all nation, whoever comes out with it first?

They'd assign local company to mass produce off course for speedy development and the prices would be small enough to cover the production cost.

I’m not aware of that being agreed but where it is available for free the government will pay for it. Pharma will still make bank

 

[Sky1981]

I’m not aware of that being agreed but where it is available for free the government will pay for it. Pharma will still make bank

they have some sort of agreement with all nations (COVAX) about providing help to all nations whoever found it first.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news...vaccine-procurement-under-covax-facility.html

"All participating countries will have special access at affordable prices, Indonesia is going to be part of this very important initiative," Debora said. Read also: China coronavirus vaccine may be ready for public in November She explained that the MoU signing would also allow domestically manufactured COVID-19 vaccines, such as the “Merah Putih” vaccine, to be placed in the international market through UNICEF's supply division.

This article was published in thejakartapost.com with the title "Indonesia, UNICEF sign agreement on COVID-19 vaccine procurement under COVAX Facility". Click to read: https://www.thejakartapost.com/news...vaccine-procurement-under-covax-facility.html.

Most vacinnes are cheap to make, it's just chemicals, the expensive part is the "brand / profit"

Except America isn't part of the agreement, so they're not bound to give it for free

 

[Brwned]

If the roll-out goes to plan then anyone who is not young and fit will have been vaccinated long before him.

Having said that, it’s weird the way so many young people in this thread don’t want to risk taking a vaccine that hasn’t killed a single one out of the 80,000+ trial subjects but seem prepared to take their chances with a virus that kills at least 1 in 1000 in their age group who get infected (and puts many more in ICU)

Yeah, I'm surprised. There is another factor to add into the stats analysis though: how likely are they to get it? If they take the vaccine, they're guaranteed to be taking on those (somewhat unquantified) risks, while if they take their chances, they're only exposed to those risk factors you mention if they get it. I think we're still estimating 10-15% have gotten it so far?

0.08% of 18-29 year olds have ended up hospitalised with it in the US, and 0.0009% of 15-24s have died from it. So from a random group of 80,000 people, you would expect covid to kill less than one of those people, too. 64 would end up in hospital, and an unknown number would end up with long-term side effects. One of the concerns is we don't know how many will end up with long-term side effects from either covid, or the vaccine. Given unexpected long-term side effects have popped up for covid, it's not an entirely unreasonable concern.

Personally I'll be getting it when it's available to me, but I won't be upset that I'm way down the queue and might not even qualify for it next year.

 

[Cheimoon]

Yeah I actually just read that the Pfizer vaccine is not part of Warp Speed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...-is-not-function-trumps-operation-warp-speed/

Anyway, I still think the US vaccine effort has been immense; pre-manufacture, removal of financial risk from companies, and the ability to do clinical trials so quickly (and in a country unfortunately swamped with COVID).

Oh, yes, of course - I'm not questioning that. More generally, it's amazing how quickly the health research community worldwide turned and refocused. It's unprecedented really. One might argue that it's never been necessary before either, but in any case it's amazing how much we have come to know so quickly. Hopefully, this also gives other research into viruses, infectious disease, immunity, and epidemiology more generally a boost. I work close to the health research area (although I'm far from a health researcher myself), and it's been very impressive.

 

[Mb194dc]

Its a pump & dump exercise by Pfizer.

Press release certainly reads like that and why not release all (or in fact any of?) the data? The first press release on this trial was much more useful:

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-r...-biontech-share-positive-early-data-lead-mrna

Not even withstanding the other problems with vaccination. BNT162b2 has to be stored at minus 70c until it's used, making a huge vaccination program with it extremely difficult and very expensive.

 

[Oggmonster]

Feck the side effects jab me arse right now. I miss getting sloshed in clubs and getting rejected by multiple women every weekend.

Yeah. There's obviously some well researched people in this thread but I'm pretty convinced there's people just happy to stay in and not socialise ever again so they shit on any slightly positive news!

 

[11101]

Its not just about you though is it? If you delay getting the vaccine you are a potential carrier passing it on to people who may not be young and fit.

I know it's not something I have to think about as all those at risk will be vaccinated by the time it gets round to me.

If the roll-out goes to plan then anyone who is not young and fit will have been vaccinated long before him.

Having said that, it’s weird the way so many young people in this thread don’t want to risk taking a vaccine that hasn’t killed a single one out of the 80,000+ trial subjects but seem prepared to take their chances with a virus that kills at least 1 in 1000 in their age group who get infected (and puts many more in ICU)

The risk of dying for otherwise healthy under 40 year olds here in Italy so far is roughly 0.0000005%, or 1 in every 1.8 million. With your figures you are forgetting that not everybody is exposed to the virus. Everybody takes the vaccine.

I'm not against taking it, I simply recognise it's been rushed and dont want to be first in line for what could yet turn out to have hidden side effects.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I'm not against taking it, I simply recognise it's been rushed and dont want to be first in line for what could yet turn out to have hidden side effects.

Totally agree.

 

[fergosaurus]

If the roll-out goes to plan then anyone who is not young and fit will have been vaccinated long before him.

Having said that, it’s weird the way so many young people in this thread don’t want to risk taking a vaccine that hasn’t killed a single one out of the 80,000+ trial subjects but seem prepared to take their chances with a virus that kills at least 1 in 1000 in their age group who get infected (and puts many more in ICU)

That's true but won't there be people with certain autoimmune conditions which prevent them getting vaccinated and therefore require herd immunity? I'd be worried if I fell into that category given the uncertainty about people willing to get the vaccine.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

The risk of dying for otherwise healthy under 40 year olds here in Italy so far is roughly 0.0000005%, or 1 in every 1.8 million. With your figures you are forgetting that not everybody is exposed to the virus. Everybody takes the vaccine.

I'm not against taking it, I simply recognise it's been rushed and dont want to be first in line for what could yet turn out to have hidden side effects.

Where did you get that % from? I went to the WHO site and the mortality rate for that age group was around 0.1%. Sometimes higher.

In fact, here’s Italian data showing mortality between 0.1% and 1.4% for 30 to 60 year olds.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

That's true but won't there be people with certain autoimmune conditions which prevent them getting vaccinated and therefore require herd immunity? I'd be worried if I fell into that category given the uncertainty about people willing to get the vaccine.

Yes. That’s a good point. Not every vulnerable person can get vaccinated. So it’s in their interest for as many healthy people as possible to take the vaccine when it’s offered.

 

[AngeloHenriquez]

What I don't understand is that a vaccine typically takes more than 10 years to create, yet we have smashed it out in 6 months with such high accuracy? It seems odd, the reason they test for so long is to study long term affects and understand the affects better. That leads me to believe they are desperate to get it out to the public but why? It kills roughly 0.1% of people which is far less than many diseases we have no cures for. We take radical actions to avoid the spread of this disease with a death rate far lower than any previous pandemic. What am I missing? The pieces aren't adding up.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

What I don't understand is that a vaccine typically takes more than 10 years to create, yet we have smashed it out in 6 months with such high accuracy? It seems odd, the reason they test for so long is to study long term affects and understand the affects better. That leads me to believe they are desperate to get it out to the public but why? It kills roughly 0.1% of people which is far less than many diseases we have no cures for. We take radical actions to avoid the spread of this disease with a death rate far lower than any previous pandemic. What am I missing? The pieces aren't adding up.

The bit in bold is where you’re going wrong.