The Trump Presidency : Part 2

Some timelines here.
  • Base tariff starts April 5.
  • "Worst offenders list" custom tariffs start April 9.
  • 25% car import tariff already in effect.
I'm a bit surprised the last bullet isn't getting as much coverage. Today would have been the first day of tariffs for car imports?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1jxrnl9xe2o
 
VorZakone said:
Some timelines here.
  • Base tariff starts April 5.
  • "Worst offenders list" custom tariffs start April 9.
  • 25% car import tariff already in effect.
I'm a bit surprised the last bullet isn't getting as much coverage. Today would have been the first day of tariffs for car imports?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1jxrnl9xe2o
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Plant shut down in Windsor Ontario because of it (mostly ford I believe) it got pretty wide coverage here
 
saivet said:
Couple of views on all of this.

I know tariff policy isn't going to be swaying the average American pre-election but a part of me thinks the US market is simply getting what it deserves as his views on tariffs weren't unknown, he would even brag about it.

It really is quite astonishing that he thought this would be a good tactic. I thought he might use the tariff talk to try and bully a few countries into getting what he wanted (similar to what he tried with Mexico and Canada) but to effectively take this globally again pretty much every country is insane. Any decent A-level Economics student would tell you this is crazy.
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At the moment, I think it's the worst single economic policy decision of any US President since the Smoot-Hawley tariffs which exacerbated the Great Depression.

Even Ronald Reagan said:

"You see, at first, when someone says, ``Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports,'' it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works -- but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is: First, homegrown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition. So, soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.

The memory of all this occurring back in the thirties made me determined when I came to Washington to spare the American people the protectionist legislation that destroys prosperity."
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
At the moment, I think it's the worst single economic policy decision of any US President since the Smoot-Hawley tariffs which exacerbated the Great Depression.
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I just wonder how stubborn he actually is. I suspect he will eventually backtrack but try and portray it as a win but I'm not sure how he could pull that off.

I asked a friend who supports Trump (not a US citizen) and he says it's just the media/people overreacting because it's Trump
 
unchanged_lineup said:
What?

How do you think they'll get the beachfront land to build the resorts.
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Probably by carpet bombing everything and everyone into oblivion.

Iker Quesadillas said:
The focus people put on the "hotel" aspect is good evidence that for many, Trump's greatest sin is being tacky.
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Multiple people approached me after the Trump vid with some level of "oh my god, I can't believe how horrible this is" - the same people who'd dismissed anything I'd bring attention to in the previous 18 months. It beggars belief.
 
Rado_N said:
Something something institutions doing what they should be doing something something
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Only checks.. no balances.

2904.jpg
 
saivet said:
Couple of views on all of this.

I know tariff policy isn't going to be swaying the average American pre-election but a part of me thinks the US market is simply getting what it deserves as his views on tariffs weren't unknown, he would even brag about it.

It really is quite astonishing that he thought this would be a good tactic. I thought he might use the tariff talk to try and bully a few countries into getting what he wanted (similar to what he tried with Mexico and Canada) but to effectively take this globally again pretty much every country is insane. Any decent A-level Economics student would tell you this is crazy.
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Some countries like Vietnam already bowed to him by reducing tariffs but they still got hit by high tariffs. He is obsessed with trade deficits with respective countries which does not have an easy fix. He can't force other countries to suddenly start importing more goods from US. It will likely result in US imports from these countries going down due to varying reasons.
 
saivet said:
That is true, everyone loses here though I think they lose the most relatively speaking. I would genuinely love to know what his voters think though, do they think it's all a big conspiracy against Trump?
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If the markets continue to slide and don't recover at some point in the not too distant future then the older section of his voters are certainly going to turn against him, millions of Americans are relying on their investments in 401K's and the like to have a decent post-work life, there's no real safety net or protections like in a lot of European countries here
 
saivet said:
I just wonder how stubborn he actually is. I suspect he will eventually backtrack but try and portray it as a win but I'm not sure how he could pull that off.

I asked a friend who supports Trump (not a US citizen) and he says it's just the media/people overreacting because it's Trump
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He seems pretty stubborn this time. Unless of course the market continues to tank, at which point congressional Republicans could jump off the tariff ship in greater numbers and more Republican voters start to freak out after checking their 401k.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
By far the maddest thing about that tweet is the possibility the whole fecking thing was cooked up on ChatGPT (or, more likely, Grock)
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The more concerning aspect to this stunt is that they assumed people would look at the scary Greek letters and not try to understand it.
A 14 year old trying to scrape a C in gcse maths could work that out without breaking sweat.
And yet that was the plan?
 
saivet said:
I just wonder how stubborn he actually is. I suspect he will eventually backtrack but try and portray it as a win but I'm not sure how he could pull that off.

I asked a friend who supports Trump (not a US citizen) and he says it's just the media/people overreacting because it's Trump
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He is as stubborn as they come, remember this is a man who will never admit he has ever gotten anything wrong
 
Raoul said:
He seems pretty stubborn this time. Unless of course the market continues to tank, at which point congressional Republicans could jump off the tariff ship in greater numbers and more Republican voters start to freak out after checking their 401k.
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Optimistic.

I know a few and they all go with the next thing drilled in their minds - that its short term pain for long term gain. Same mofos who had a coronary every time but a fraction of their investments dropped a little lower under a dem.
 
Redplane said:
Optimistic.

I know a few and they all go with the next thing drilled in their minds - that its short term pain for long term gain. Same mofos who had a coronary every time but a fraction of their investments dropped a little lower under a dem.
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Ultimately the majority of Republican voters are not MAGA nuts and neither are their representatives in Congress, the latter are mostly power hungry cnuts who will turn on him if they sense their seats are in bigly danger
 
Redplane said:
Optimistic.

I know a few and they all go with the next thing drilled in their minds - that its short term pain for long term gain. Same mofos who had a coronary every time but a fraction of their investments dropped a little lower under a dem.
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I know a few who are second guessing their voting choices because things Trump has done have directly affected them and their families.
 
Raoul said:
I know a few who are second guessing their voting choices because things Trump has done have directly affected them and their families.
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Hopefully the ones you know are sincere. The few I talked to I "tested" by seeing how much they really see the light by asking their opinions on things like Greenland, Ukraine, election interference, ICE, or other things that may not have an immediate negative effect on them. And they always fail.
 
nimic said:
That second part seems quite naive at this point.
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Not really, most of them want to retain their lucrative jobs and they are dependent on the non-MAGA portion of their voter base to get elected
 
According to old lady gossip in my family, my uncle who lives in boston has lost a bunch of money in the stock market since trump took over. He posted about 2 hours ago on facebook about how great these tariffs are and how well trump is doing.

I think a big chunk of maga believers will proudly go down with the ship.
 
Redplane said:
Hopefully the ones you know are sincere. The few I talked to I "tested" by seeing how much they really see the light by asking their opinions on things like Greenland, Ukraine, election interference, ICE, or other things that may not have an immediate negative effect on them. And they always fail.
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If I thought someone was 'testing' me I'd tell them to feck right off. You must be particularly clever to get away with that technique.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
By far the maddest thing about that tweet is the possibility the whole fecking thing was cooked up on ChatGPT (or, more likely, Grock)
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yeah it's super weird

one of the dumbest things I can remember ever happening in the public geopolitical domain

almost like they purposely are taking the piss
 
Hard to disagree with this.

“This is not serious trade policy or grand strategy,” said Tooze. “The boss hates trade deficits and his team of willing sycophants came up with a formula, however idiotic, that ticked the box.”
 
711 said:
If I thought someone was 'testing' me I'd tell them to feck right off. You must be particularly clever to get away with that technique.
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If you were an everyday Trump voter I doubt that you would notice TBH.
 
Wibble said:
Hard to disagree with this.

“This is not serious trade policy or grand strategy,” said Tooze. “The boss hates trade deficits and his team of willing sycophants came up with a formula, however idiotic, that ticked the box.”
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Tooze is really good. Wages of destruction is a fantastic book just as an FYI
 
Pogue Mahone said:
By far the maddest thing about that tweet is the possibility the whole fecking thing was cooked up on ChatGPT (or, more likely, Grock)
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Like any system if the data going in is shit the data coming out is going to also be shit. Theoretically AI will be accurate/try to correct things but it will also often try to "please" you by giving an answer that supports your biases i.e. it is doing what you ask, as best as possible.
 
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Pogue Mahone said:
Friends of mine have done this. You can get a free car for your trip by signing up to drive someone's car from coast to coast (saves them doing the drive or paying transit fees when they relocate) Realistically, you still enter/leave America by one of the more liberal, touristy cities (my friends drove from NYC to San Fran)
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That‘s brilliant, you could even get payed!
 
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