The Hurricane Thread | Hurricane Rafael
- Thread starter Florida Man
- Start date
Sadly, and this is what annoys me so much about climate change deniers, is that due to the warming of the oceans you now have higher humidity as well. So you have warmer water in the seas, lakes and rivers, warmer water and much more.of it in the air and hotter weather with sustained longer periods of heat too as well as more severe wet weather.
Put all those together and you have the equivalent of free pills and louder harder music in a rave environment for the weather. It's like you're off to a house and garage event and turn up to find out it's gabba techno.
It's just too much for their little brain to absorb.
What a buzz kill that would be.
I had a pretty big argument with a customer a few weeks ago. He was at the bar banging on about the climate change hoax and repeating the same old tired bollocks that they all do.
I politely pointed out to him that the area he was visiting is the highest fishing port in the UK and as an ex fisherman myself I had noticed huge changes, especially in the last 15 years or so.
We always had set seasons for lots of fish species, we especially mackerel and sprats. About 15 years ago the sprat boats started catching anchovies which had never been seen here before. Now there is a huge anchovy season that sits alongside the ever smaller sprat season.
To add to that following the anchovies came huge pods of dolphins chasing them up from warmer waters around Spain and Portugal. Now we have dolphin watch boats. We always had a few dolphins but now we regularly have super pods and they are here for 9 months of the year. To add to all that we have 30 seals in Brixham when we only ever had one or two and last year we had a huge bin lid jellyfish explosion and a few sightings of sea turtles that feed off them.
If all that wasn't enough, earlier this year Cornwall allowed the landing of Bluefin Tuna due to the exceptionally large numbers around the Cornish and Devon coasts now, which are obviously enjoying the warmer waters and the anchovies and other fish coming in to them.
As for mackerel, the season for them was always late April/early May till September/October. You never saw any after that. Maybe the odd one but not in large numbers. Now you catch more Mackerel between September and March with the peak season being November to February. I lost a £50 bet to my kids a couple of years ago as we walked down the breakwater on Boxing day and we saw people fishing, I said to my kids that I bet £50 they won't be catching anything..... The bloke reeled in a stringfull of mackerel and put them in a bin bag that was almost half full. FFS
But oh no, I didn't know what I was talking about and it was all a natural occurrence.
Yeah, right.
Wow. I cant believe the change in the type of warm water fish that's there now. It's like as a kid seeing coconut/palm trees in Arran was weird -- and that has always stuck in my head.
But to hear about the fish population changing that dramatically!
Don't get me wrong, things have changed as I said above, but where we are on the South West coast, we are sharing what you could call the fish border where these species used to skirt. It's just now they have moved in and each year in greater numbers.
Last Summer we had humpback whale right off the shore on a new route of their migration path. We always had porpoises and dolphins just not in the numbers seen now and as much as it is without question partly due to warming sea temperatures and hotter weather patterns. It's also down to over fishing as well. Lots of the larger species are coming here in search of food and if the food is here then they will be here too.
Berry Head.is a 5 minute walk from my pub/house and the tuna at Start Point is just around the corner from Berry Head.
Sadly can't see.any super pods footage but some mates have it on their phones, I will see if they can upload it.
What are you complaining? dolphins, turtles, more anchovies and Tuna to fish. I am jsut waiting for Vancouver to be a tropical paradise. Climate change is a bless
My granny and grandad live in Brixham, always see nothing when I go berry head though.
I was mistaken, Otis grew from a tropical storm to a Cat 5 in roughly 14 hours, not 36.
That rapid intensification was insane, I think it might be the most rapid on record?
Yep, has to be.
Hurricane season 2024 is not looking good, I know it's still early but the signs aren't great. ECMWF is already reporting above average, and main development region in Atlantic is at July temperatures already. Along with a developing La Niña, something to watch out for.
Need to get my prep done early this year.
Need to get my prep done early this year.
Insurance must cost an absolute fortune in the likes of Florida
Sounds like you need to move!
You're assuming a regular insurance company would insure you!
Insurance is pretty rough, and I need to carry flood now to even though I am way above the flood line (I am approx 50'). I also got dropped from Citizens the state backed agency, since some else offered me a policy more expensive but within their rules.
I wouldn't mind moving but it just isn't that easy right now. Being in Tampa is probably the best place to be though to ride out Hurricane season.
I wouldn't mind moving but it just isn't that easy right now. Being in Tampa is probably the best place to be though to ride out Hurricane season.
Just be glad you're in Seminole Heights as opposed to right on Bayshore Boulevard!
Out of curiosity, is there anywhere in Florida (or anywhere else, say tornado valley) that insurance companies won't touch?
I'm only asking because my friend's family home in Kingswear is uninsurable due to its location being barely a couple of feet above the mean high spring tides water level and although it's a big property, the garden area regularly floods as did the inside until they had the centuries old sewer and drainage system updated.
Given insurance partly works on probability,I'm guessing many places that sit slap bang in areas where hurricanes or other weather events hit or can hit regularly, it wouldn't surprise me if some just became uninsurable.
I'm only asking because my friend's family home in Kingswear is uninsurable due to its location being barely a couple of feet above the mean high spring tides water level and although it's a big property, the garden area regularly floods as did the inside until they had the centuries old sewer and drainage system updated.
Given insurance partly works on probability,I'm guessing many places that sit slap bang in areas where hurricanes or other weather events hit or can hit regularly, it wouldn't surprise me if some just became uninsurable.
In theory no, Citizens is the state backed insurer of last resort. However I think they can require you to do thinks like get a new roof or refused to cover certain things. Citizens is hanging on by a thread though. Before I was dropped from them we were forced to carry the flood insurance. Many the insurers won't cover the old craftsman style houses (mine is from around 1905) which is weird because they are much stronger than the ton of McMansion/HOA sprawl currently going up.
The location shouldn't be enough for Citizens to deny coverage. They should only be able to deny based on house condition itself.
I can't tell whether it's lack of oxygen at this altitude or the kava from the kava bars that is making me woozy.
Ah, ok. Thanks for the reply. I guess that on top of the conditions many places have massively increased premiums due to location and varying factors?
Aye, especially by the water. Plus a lot of insurers will force you to get your roof redone or drop you as well, adding to the roofing fraud that is going on (and your own cost). I had a roofer redo my roof after Irma and they tried to scam Citizens. Went to court and even though I had all the evidence on my side, I still lost. It's literally insane how little protection you get in Florida.
It's what happens when you vote in the likes of Gaetz, Scott and DeSDantis (maybe not you personally)
I can’t vote anyway (permanent resident). Tampa a bit of an oasis in a state of crazy though.
CSU released it’s first forecast and it is quite bad.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
Our local met Denis Phillips who for me is hands down the best person to listen to, will start covering this week.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
Our local met Denis Phillips who for me is hands down the best person to listen to, will start covering this week.
Amuse bouche...
Good article comparing two hurricanes that hit SW Florida almost on identical paths...
https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2024/...mparison-of-hurricanes-charley-2004-ian-2022/
https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2024/...mparison-of-hurricanes-charley-2004-ian-2022/
Gonna be the first big one of the season if predictions hold...
e - already a hurricane...
e - already a hurricane...
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Beryl went from "might become a hurricane" to "will be the earliest hurricane in the Atlantic tropics, but a minor one" to "now a Cat 4 and the strongest hurricane ever recorded in June" in 2 days.
Wild how these things keep rapidly strengthening past days old predictions & models
Wild how these things keep rapidly strengthening past days old predictions & models
It’ll probably be a cat 5. Folks laughing at HWRF intensification a few days ago but it called it right.
The new HAF’s models are looking really solid forecasting too.
The new HAF’s models are looking really solid forecasting too.
Most recent fly thru data I’ve seen has it right at the line for a Cat 5
Those poor windward islands got hammered
Out of curiosity, but how do people in the affected regions even get on with their life? Every year they get hit by hurricanes.
Cat 5, 165mph winds now.
Edit. I should know how to read wind speed. 160kts, just over 180mph.
NOAA Recon Data
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From the NWS...
Each year, an average of ten tropical storms develop over the Atlantic Ocean, Carribean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Many of these remain over the ocean. Six of these storms become hurricanes each year. In an average 3-year period, roughly five hurricanes strike the United States coastline, killing approximately 50 to 100 people anywhere from Texas to Maine. Of these, two are typically major hurricanes (winds greater than 110 mph).
Luckily there's not many that hit land. When they do,, their lives are upended but there's typically quick FEMA response, but their lives are upended & massively altered.
Scary this early. Don't know how much more people need to see with their own eyes before we collectively do something...but clearly cat 5s in June (almost) isn't enough. Just sucks alot.
She's going to hit countries that aren't well insured or able to take it too.
She's going to hit countries that aren't well insured or able to take it too.