The Hurricane Thread | Hurricane Rafael
- Thread starter Florida Man
- Start date
The 11pm update isn’t a good one
If this thing goes even a couple of miles east of the entrance to Tampa Bay, that would be massive. It’s going to come down to such tiny differences similar to Irma.
Yeah instead of massive surge it will temp drain the bay like Irma before the rain comes.
Still hasn’t passed Cuba yet and models keep trending east. The project path is right over my house, but still have very low confidence in that. The spread is still wild less than 24 out.
Yep. I was able to get to my friend's house who lives on the water south of downtown STP & seeing the bay's bottom for a few hundred feet outwards was rather unsettling. Reminded me of the 2004 tsunami when all the ocean was pulled offshore.
Weather Underground has the west eye wall going over my old apartment, so that jives with the eye over you as well.
You seem experienced with this unfortunately, and I hope you and your friends/family can stay safe.
We have friends over in St Augustine, I’m struggling to find clear info online do you have any idea what impact they are likely to see?
They are in the cone of uncertainty. They are going to get rain and wind but it should decrease rapidly to more like tropical storm conditions for them. It should decrease from Cat 3 to Cat 1 north east of Tampa. I don't think I've seen this level of uncertainty 24-36 hours out, the probability cone is more like a bubble. Won't find much else because it hasn't left Cuba yet and where it hits the west coast will matter. The bizarrest thing to think point is that it looks like UKMET office has been on the money, so far. I'm not a meteorologist though, just a pilot who likes weather charts.
The best sources to consider keeping an eye on:
- Denis Philips (facebook) - local met with expertise in reporting on hurricanes and not sensationalist
- Tropical Tidbits (website) - private project by a PHD guy who a collates a lot of info and offers a really good opinion
Luckily I live in Savannah, GA, but we had to go through an evacuation a couple of years ago, but stayed put & lucked out as the storm veered to the north. Growing up in FL has given me a good toolkit of dealing with them.
One thing that is being underreported is how the onshore flow will affect the east coast of Florida. The storm size will create some storm surge due to its bands coming onshore, but it will potentially pale in comparison to the west coast of FL. One thing the east coast has to ameliorate the surge is there's typically a large beach & roads the surge will have to cross before reaching houses, etc.
That's a really good point and if the UKMET path holds then there will be onshore flow around St Augustine and Jacksonville. My daughter went to university in St Augustine, it's pretty prone to flooding.
As well as Jacksonville on the St. John's River (which is apparently one of the two major rivers in the world which flows north).
@NotworkSte @calodo2003 thanks guys
No worries. It doesn't look like they will experiencing anything significant until Wednesday around 400Pish. ; )
The mini-Trumpian governor was just on local news and the FEMA people and forecasters are predicting the storm to stay just south of Tampa, right over Sarasota/Venice/Port Charlotte, cut across the state northeast track, and into the Atlantic.
I'm still debating if I should roll out northward to get a hotel room. My big concern here is loss of electricity and flooding into the apartment. If the storm stays south the weather people were saying a storm staying south will pull Bay water that direction, but if it goes over/north of it will pull the Bay water over the city and counties. Those on the coast will get a surge regardless.
I'm still debating if I should roll out northward to get a hotel room. My big concern here is loss of electricity and flooding into the apartment. If the storm stays south the weather people were saying a storm staying south will pull Bay water that direction, but if it goes over/north of it will pull the Bay water over the city and counties. Those on the coast will get a surge regardless.
Were you in Tampa in 2015 when there was waist high water on Dale Mabry near UT due to a storm? The entirety of South Tampa was affected. My car died with water up to the bottom of the window. That was just from high tide & a series of bad storms. Completely forgot about that until I read your post. You might want to consider relocating for a bit.
https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/2020/08/06/five-years-since-the-infamous-tampa-bay-flood
Tampa is fecked, lets hope the Glazers lose their homes the cnuts, and that everyone else is okay
The current track has Ian coming into Tampa Bay as if it's a ship entering the harbor.
The 1100A update apparently has the eye entering around Sarasota. Similar somewhat to Irma.
Yeah, right after I posted, they released the new update. I thought I was looking at the 11am at the time - good news for Tampa at least.
Didn't even see yours before I posted. We look like we are in a match day thread discussing how someone is playing! Peak Caf even in the hurricane thread!
Mine is a trivial concern compared to people's safety, but I'm scheduled to fly to Brazil via Miami tomorrow. The more the hurricane track angles east, the less likely it's looking that my flights will go on as planned. Just stay west mr. hurricane!
Stay safe all, the latest projections are looking pretty dire. Some paths running right over the middle of Tampa. And it's slowing down, which is disastrous as it'll just sit.
Could be one of the largest industry losses in history
Could be one of the largest industry losses in history
MIA should be fine as it's out of the cone.
Yesterday Cubans vote with a 2/3 majority to legalise alternative marriages. Today a hurricane batters the island...
Following back up on this as the path has changed somewhat. St Johns county has started doing some precautionary evacuations.
https://www.flagler.edu/campus-community/news/hurricane-ian-update.php
Flooding and rain will be the real risk, after coming across Florida, Ian shouldn’t be as strong. Tropical storm rather than hurricane.
Thanks mate, spoke to them earlier and they mentioned they were going to pick up sandbags so they’re doing what they can but yes fingers crossed it will be at the lesser end of the scale even though it’s obviously still bad.
This is basically Irma 2.0. Another unreported on fact of this storm (& Irma) is how screwed up central Florida will be around Orlando.
This is a stupid question but is the water a little warm or are conditions chilly?
Extremely warm this time of the year. It’s the warmth of the water, especially deep, that gives the hurricanes all their energy.
Forgot to post this earlier, but here are two hacks that worked during Andrew:
1. If you have a bathtub that is in no danger of being flooded, clean it & fill it to the rim. That’s 30+ gallons of potable water, especially key if you have pets.
2. If you are going to be flooded, place valuable documents, etc. in plastic bags & put them into the dishwashing machine. Even if a flood that lingers, a dishwasher will stay airtight.
1. If you have a bathtub that is in no danger of being flooded, clean it & fill it to the rim. That’s 30+ gallons of potable water, especially key if you have pets.
2. If you are going to be flooded, place valuable documents, etc. in plastic bags & put them into the dishwashing machine. Even if a flood that lingers, a dishwasher will stay airtight.
5pm update bumped the track SE again, so good news for Tampa / St Petes, bad news for between Sarasota and Ft Myers
Beautiful town, that.
I hope nothing bad happens to the Glazers
One of their houses would have been swamped over if the original path had held from yesterday.