The Economics Thread

Agreed. The market angle would need to be scrutinized to ensure the impact on markets will be minimal. Otherwise, it could cause opponents to gain the upper hand and scupper the entire project much as they've done with the ACA.

What I'm seeing this election cycle is the Republicans are being painted as demons with wanting to strip away pre-existing conditions and just demolishing health care. Every Democratic ad I have seen runs on this.

It so easy for the Dems.

The Republicans may feel the only way back is to join the Dems in Medicare for All . Perhaps compromise with a Public Option.

There are lots of other areas to fight over.
 
It will never happen but if it did, it would be a bloodbath. About 1/6th of the US economy is healthcare. You would have to restructure it.

What kind of capitalist wants to keep a bloated inefficient system just because it provides lots of work?
 
Was checking the wages of China vs India, and I'm surprised to find out that Chinese workers make around 3 times more than an Indian. shiiiiiet.

No wonder Apple (and many more i presume) is moving factories to India.

Not so easy as just shifting to some place due to lower wages. China has an entire supply chain in place. Secondly, the infrastructure in India isnt in place to be able to pick up any slack in the short term. Finally, there is a reason why there aren't very many MNCs setting up manufacturing factories in India.

All this talk about squeezing China is just foolish. Both economies are closely interlinked and the Chinese know this. They also know that Trump is very short-term mindset. He just wants a paper victory so suckers like Danny think he is doing something.
Create the problem when there isn't one, have the solution then claim victory.

It all boils down to Trump's kindergarten level idea of what trade is. I buy more than you means you have more money from/than me and so you win. A very binary brain.
 
Not so easy as just shifting to some place due to lower wages. China has an entire supply chain in place. Secondly, the infrastructure in India isnt in place to be able to pick up any slack in the short term. Finally, there is a reason why there aren't very many MNCs setting up manufacturing factories in India.

All this talk about squeezing China is just foolish. Both economies are closely interlinked and the Chinese know this. They also know that Trump is very short-term mindset. He just wants a paper victory so suckers like Danny think he is doing something.
Create the problem when there isn't one, have the solution then claim victory.

It all boils down to Trump's kindergarten level idea of what trade is. I buy more than you means you have more money from/than me and so you win.

Yep, i was thinking about that. For some industries where human labour is still 100% necessary might make sense, but the productivity of an fully or semi automated factory in China is gonna be so much higher in every aspect. The know how takes time to acquire.
 
That's an important point that often isn't addressed. The entire healthcare sector of the stock market would have some serious downside risk, and by extension, the broader market. A lot of pension funds may be affected.

Its really not a big deal. The switch to Medicare for all will be incremental or come with enough advance warning that all the pension funds can just re-invest elsewhere. Its not like the 2008 recession where the pension fund managers had clue they were investing all their money into really bad investments. As long as markets have a head start the broader market wouldn't be affected. And considering that everyone knows that Europe, Japan, Australia, Canada are all more efficient with health care personally I would guess that UHC would actually be very good overall for US markets.

Obviously the for-profit HMO would disappear (as well they should) and big pharma won't be able to charge $50 for a boner pill so if your business model is based on selling $50 boner pills, probably need a new career

What kind of capitalist wants to keep a bloated inefficient system just because it provides lots of work?

Trump and supporters for his ideas are not really capitalists. They are basically neo-mercantilists
 
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The way to advocate single payer is not to talk from a Macro point of view.

It tends to confuse and can sometimes be daunting.

But if you approach it from an individual's point of view and how it will affect them, they will understand.

Explain it from the payroll tax point of view and what expense they wont need to pay. Premuims/Deductibles/co pays.

..And they can still see the same doctors. Get the medication they need and such.

From the governments perspective, everyone should be covered immediately but they can slowly collect the taxes they need. There may be a lag. But so what.
When we go to war are we collecting taxes first?
 
Yep, i was thinking about that. For some industries where human labour is still 100% necessary might make sense, but the productivity of an fully or semi automated factory in China is gonna be so much higher in every aspect. The know how takes time to acquire.

How quickly the supply chain ramped up was the surprise. I had hardware built in China and it required you to get the various items of the BOM (Bill of material together) and then the engineering work to be done. Then two years later (we are talking like 10 years ago), all I had to do was choose the design and specifications and bob's your uncle. The same guy did the rest.
So its not so simple like Danny had suggested and making such decisions simply based on price or cost of labour. Naive and ignorant. Supply chain, relationships all take a while to develop, which in any competitive industry knows, its not a luxury afforded to them.
 
Was checking the wages of China vs India, and I'm surprised to find out that Chinese workers make around 3 times more than an Indian. shiiiiiet.

No wonder Apple (and many more i presume) is moving factories to India.

China is moving up the ladder in terms of value added. While they surpressed their wages for a long time, nowadays they are not a low-labour cost country anymore. The consequence is that this part of the production chain is getting moved towards SEA. The less productive parts of production are getting done in countries like India, (Indonesia), Myanmar and Vietnam, while China is doing the higher value added parts (e.g. assembly). Thats one reason why there could be another commodity boom episode similar to the 2000-2010 period in the near future.
 
Not so easy as just shifting to some place due to lower wages. China has an entire supply chain in place. Secondly, the infrastructure in India isnt in place to be able to pick up any slack in the short term. Finally, there is a reason why there aren't very many MNCs setting up manufacturing factories in India.

All this talk about squeezing China is just foolish. Both economies are closely interlinked and the Chinese know this. They also know that Trump is very short-term mindset. He just wants a paper victory so suckers like Danny think he is doing something.
Create the problem when there isn't one, have the solution then claim victory.

It all boils down to Trump's kindergarten level idea of what trade is. I buy more than you means you have more money from/than me and so you win. A very binary brain.

The US economy currently exports about $130b worth of goods to China and about 1 million American jobs depend upon it. China's exports to us are on track this year to be around $560b this year. They have a lot more to lose than us in this dispute. Say what you like about Trump - he is doing the right thing for the US. Setting up a new supply chain in India would be would be a difficult transition but if you think monster companies like Apple can't do that (and do it quite quickly actually), you are the one out of touch with reality.
 
The US economy currently exports about $130b worth of goods to China and about 1 million American jobs depend upon it. China's exports to us are on track this year to be around $560b this year. They have a lot more to lose than us in this dispute. Say what you like about Trump - he is doing the right thing for the US. Setting up a new supply chain in India would be would be a difficult transition but if you think monster companies like Apple can't do that (and do it quite quickly actually), you are the one out of touch with reality.

Have you even been to China or India? I happen to have built IT products (HD and SW) in both those countries. Stop spouting things that you have no idea of.
fyi. Apple doesnt own the supply chain stakeholders.
 
The US economy currently exports about $130b worth of goods to China and about 1 million American jobs depend upon it. China's exports to us are on track this year to be around $560b this year. They have a lot more to lose than us in this dispute. Say what you like about Trump - he is doing the right thing for the US. Setting up a new supply chain in India would be would be a difficult transition but if you think monster companies like Apple can't do that (and do it quite quickly actually), you are the one out of touch with reality.


Good illustration of how Trump and his supporters are neo-mercantilists. You seem to actually believe that trade is a zero sum game and that importing 600bn from China is inherently bad. You and Trump misunderstand that a trade deficit is not inherently a bad thing.
 
Good illustration of how Trump and his supporters are neo-mercantilists. You seem to actually believe that trade is a zero sum game and that importing 600bn from China is inherently bad. You and Trump misunderstand that a trade deficit is not inherently a bad thing.
Didn't say it was a zero sum game. I said that globalization creates a race to rhe bottom for most of tbe middle class unlucky enough to be on the receiving end of its effects.
 
Have you even been to China or India? I happen to have built IT products (HD and SW) in both those countries. Stop spouting things that you have no idea of.
fyi. Apple doesnt own the supply chain stakeholders.

No and no. And they don't employ the supply chain directly. What is your point again? If you don't want me to respond, why include me in your posts?
 
Didn't say it was a zero sum game. I said that globalization creates a race to rhe bottom for most of tbe middle class unlucky enough to be on the receiving end of its effects.

If its not a zero sum game then you and Trump claiming US trade deficit is a bad thing doesnt make sense. Your race to the bottom isnt created by "globalization", its created by a mix of incentives that you and Trump protectionism isn't going to help. Whenever you caj produce any evidence this trade protectionism is helping the middle class as you claim feel free to post supporting evidence of your claims.
 
IMF :lol: - banter organisation


Economic predictions are notoriously impossible. They got the direction right in seven out of nine years tbf.

It's not like you can predict a 9/11, Brexit or a random inflationary event like a Middle East crisis spiking an oil crisis.
 
If its not a zero sum game then you and Trump claiming US trade deficit is a bad thing doesnt make sense. Your race to the bottom isnt created by "globalization", its created by a mix of incentives that you and Trump protectionism isn't going to help. Whenever you caj produce any evidence this trade protectionism is helping the middle class as you claim feel free to post supporting evidence of your claims.
Maybe you need to learn the definition of what 'a zero sum game means'. Strangely enough, we didn't have a race to the bottom prior to globalization. Prior to globalization, wages for the middle class were going up. Now, even when it booms, wages stagnate.
 
Maybe you need to learn the definition of what 'a zero sum game means'. Strangely enough, we didn't have a race to the bottom prior to globalization. Prior to globalization, wages for the middle class were going up. Now, even when it booms, wages stagnate.
Wouldn't it be funny if Trump used the money received from China for the Tariffs to build the border wall. China pays for another wall, just not theirs this time around.
 
Wouldn't it be funny if Trump used the money received from China for the Tariffs to build the border wall. China pays for another wall, just not theirs this time around.

You've got a bit... A bit of saliva... Yup just there, running down your chin.

Can't imagine what your salivating will be like if Trump goes for the other tarriffs you want.
 
Wouldn't it be funny if Trump used the money received from China for the Tariffs to build the border wall. China pays for another wall, just not theirs this time around.

Money received from China? You know its American businesses that pay the tariffs right?
 
Money received from China? You know its American businesses that pay the tariffs right?
The way to advocate single payer is not to talk from a Macro point of view.

It tends to confuse and can sometimes be daunting.

But if you approach it from an individual's point of view and how it will affect them, they will understand.

Explain it from the payroll tax point of view and what expense they wont need to pay. Premuims/Deductibles/co pays.

..And they can still see the same doctors. Get the medication they need and such.

From the governments perspective, everyone should be covered immediately but they can slowly collect the taxes they need. There may be a lag. But so what.
When we go to war are we collecting taxes first?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/19msr.pdf

Go to page 23. Take a look at the figures for what we are spending on Medicare each year (almost $600b and growing). Medicare currently takes care of 44 million Americans. You can't get away from talking about the Macro element to this
 
Money received from China? You know its American businesses that pay the tariffs right?
I couldn't be happier to see Apple and co paying the tariffs. I hope we slap a tariff of 25 percent on everything imported from there. The Chinese complained that he was creating uncertainty. Well, that's one way to create certainty for them.
 
I couldn't be happier to see Apple and co paying the tariffs. I hope we slap a tariff of 25 percent on everything imported from there. The Chinese complained that he was creating uncertainty. Well, that's one way to create certainty for them.

Well fair enough if that's your view, I just thought from another post of your though that its job creation you cared about.

Apple will cope just fine I imagine however, they are an international business with the resources to restructure around it. Any increased cost I'm sure they can absorb or pass on without too much trouble. Americans need their iPhone's after all.

The "and co" you mention though I'm not so sure. Y'know the other god knows how many american businesses that rely on goods and materials imported from China to get by. It is going to be devastating for some, have no doubt.

Will be interesting to see how the various media outlets cover/spin the job losses.
 
You've got a bit... A bit of saliva... Yup just there, running down your chin.

Can't imagine what your salivating will be like if Trump goes for the other tarriffs you want.
Not really. All I want is what's good for the middle class. I don't care if it's Trump doing it or the Dems doing it or anyone else. I have no overbearing philosophy that guides my beliefs other than - if you have tried something and it hasn't worked, don't keep doing it. We've tried 'free trade with no restrictions' for the last 50 years and the consequences have been catastrophic for the middle class. It's time to try something else.
 
What about all the money people will save on the front end by not having to pay premiums, deductibles, etc ?
That will all be drowned out by the endless adds running on every channel on TV and radio telling us about how the Dems are going to bankrupt the country and 'welcome to Venezuela' and socialized medicine. The truth is that it will cost more for Medicare for All but the Dems won't admit that the only way forwards is to raise people's taxes to pay for this.
 
That will all be drowned out by the endless adds running on every channel on TV and radio telling us about how the Dems are going to bankrupt the country and 'welcome to Venezuela' and socialized medicine. The truth is that it will cost more for Medicare for All but the Dems won't admit that the only way forwards is to raise people's taxes to pay for this.

No doubt there will be a massive fear mongering campaign just as there was with the ACA.
 
No doubt there will be a massive fear mongering campaign just as there was with the ACA.
Worse actually as 'Medicare for All' is an existential threat to these people and they have pockets that are so, so deep. The ACA was only very moderate change and you saw how they fought that down. I think it will be much worse if they try to push for 'Medicare for All'. People often think that it is just a fight with the insurances. It isn't. Large provider groups and hospitals are now absolute monsters, many with revenues of over a $billion a year. Medicare pays about 40 percent or less of what most private insurances pay them for care. You think that they are going to sit on their hands and let that change happen?
 
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/19msr.pdf

Go to page 23. Take a look at the figures for what we are spending on Medicare each year (almost $600b and growing). Medicare currently takes care of 44 million Americans. You can't get away from talking about the Macro element to this

Its impossible for non profit Single payer program to be more expensive than a profit based health care system. Because you eliminate the middle man.

Medicare as it is caters to people who are above 65. People tend to need more medical care as they grow older.

If Everyone pays into a Medicare For All or Single Payer system, younger people will be using far less of the funds needed than older people. The fund will in fact grow.

The efficiency will be far greater under single payer. People will get the care they need without having to deal with a broker.

Most importantly for our country we must provide health care to all as a matter of right.
 
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Worse actually as 'Medicare for All' is an existential threat to these people and they have pockets that are so, so deep. The ACA was only very moderate change and you saw how they fought that down. I think it will be much worse if they try to push for 'Medicare for All'. People often think that it is just a fight with the insurances. It isn't. Large provider groups and hospitals are now absolute monsters, many with revenues of over a $billion a year. Medicare pays about 40 percent or less of what most private insurances pay them for care. You think that they are going to sit on their hands and let that change happen?

The needs of the many is far greater than the wants of the few. Of course profit based entities will fight. But they will simply be outvoted.

The ACA is a Republican plan. It is not successful because it still tries to work within the Profit based system.

an important factor.

Both Employers and Employees will save a lot of money as no premiums will be required.

For employees. No Deductibles or Co-pays as well.

Its not even a debate.
 
The needs of the many is far greater than the wants of the few. Of course profit based entities will fight. But they will simply be outvoted.

The ACA is a Republican plan. It is not successful because it still tries to work within the Profit based system.

an important factor.

Both Employers and Employees will save a lot of money as no premiums will be required.

For employees. No Deductibles or Co-pays as well.

Its not even a debate.

Yes, but the fact that a public option couldn't even make it into a vote in the House bill speak for itself.

Unless you have a Democratic majority in Congress largely immune to reactionary cycle-by-cycle politicking similar to the New Deal coalition that lasted until the early 90s, pushing for universal healthcare is simply a Sisyphean task.

Campaign finance reform and non-partisan redistricting should be the absolute priority before any ambitious social program can be implemented. You can't do anything when your guys get voted in and out every 2 years. That, however, isn't happening any time soon so in short, you are all fecked.
 
Maybe you need to learn the definition of what 'a zero sum game means'. Strangely enough, we didn't have a race to the bottom prior to globalization. Prior to globalization, wages for the middle class were going up. Now, even when it booms, wages stagnate.

This is just more misinformation and manufacturing fetishism that reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of trade. The US trade deficit with China is not a bad thing. It means the US economy and citizens are making more money from services, intellectual property, digital innovation, etc and don't need to toil away in factories. Factories that are going to be largely automated by 2030 anyway - 800 million of those manufacturing will be disappearing to automation in the next 12 years. Its a good thing that most Americans don't have to depend on manufacturing jobs.

And we already covered history so stop with the lies. The US moved to free trade after WWII and the middle class in America saw its most prosperous period ever 50s-70s during an era of free trade.

"This year, net inward investment into the United States by multinational corporations—both foreign and American—has fallen almost to zero, an early indicator of the damage being done by the Trump administration’s trade conflicts and its arbitrary bullying of companies and governments. This shift of corporate investment away from the United States will decrease long-term U.S. income growth, reduce the number of well-paid jobs available, and reinforce the ongoing shift of global commerce away from United States. That shift will subject the entire world economy to greater instability.

Most obvious, Trump’s trade war is escalating. It is displacing Americans from jobs in export industries and reducing U.S. purchasing power. But these direct harms are limited; the global economy can adapt to Trump’s tariffs. As I wrote, “The United States is more dispensable to the rules-based trading regime than it is in other economic spheres. . . .Trade can be limited, but never completely squelched.” What’s more, congressional Republicans’ spending binge and their deep tax cuts will offset most of the damage to aggregate U.S. growth and employment, at least for this year and next (although those actions will bring bills to pay later). As a result, standard economic indicators, such as the value of the dollar, the U.S. stock market, and interest rates on U.S. government debt, which are all currently fairly stable, do not reveal much about whether the world economy is moving into a post-American era. Major powers have accelerated trade deals among one another without the United States, including the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the successor to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, from which Trump withdrew the United States last year, and the recently signed EU-Japanese free trade deal.

If U.S.-made cars are competitive only behind tariff barriers, and cost far more than they should because of those tariffs, there is no point in planning to make more of them in the United States to meet rising global demand. The economies of scale that make vast manufacturing enterprises work will decline. As antimarket governments have repeatedly shown, and as was the case with the U.S. auto industry in the 1960s and early 1970s, protection stifles innovation and results in worse products for consumers in the protected domestic industry. Going down that road will, in turn, hurt overall research and development in the United States, of which investment from automakers (including foreign ones) makes up a large part, and the United States’ reputation as a place to do business. "

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/arti...-07-23/how-trump-repelling-foreign-investment
 
Yes, but the fact that a public option couldn't even make it into a vote in the House bill speak for itself.

Unless you have a Democratic majority in Congress largely immune to reactionary cycle-by-cycle politicking similar to the New Deal coalition that lasted until the early 90s, pushing for universal healthcare is simply a Sisyphean task.

Campaign finance reform and non-partisan redistricting should be the absolute priority before any ambitious social program can be implemented. You can't do anything when your guys get voted in and out every 2 years. That, however, isn't happening any time soon so in short, you are all fecked.

Its a very different environment today than 10 years ago. There wasn't the huge amount of strong public support 10 years ago for universal healthcare as now and none of the Democrats 10 years ago including Obama who campaign on universal healthcare were even trying to formulate a plan back then. Its important to remember that public political will can change over time. There are finally a new generation of Democrats (about 20 years too late but that's another issue) that is willing to champion these ideas. Also there is just more information available now and its impossible to dispute the benefits for universal health insurance.
 
Yes, but the fact that a public option couldn't even make it into a vote in the House bill speak for itself.

Unless you have a Democratic majority in Congress largely immune to reactionary cycle-by-cycle politicking similar to the New Deal coalition that lasted until the early 90s, pushing for universal healthcare is simply a Sisyphean task.

Campaign finance reform and non-partisan redistricting should be the absolute priority before any ambitious social program can be implemented. You can't do anything when your guys get voted in and out every 2 years. That, however, isn't happening any time soon so in short, you are all fecked.


you are looking at this backwards.

To say it is undoable is to admit defeat before the fight starts.

(btw. why is it so difficult to get 60 votes?) Because of health Insurance companies buying members of congress...with money they collect from individuals in the form of premiums and high deductibles. I call it simple bribery.

a majority of even Republicans want single payer.

The ACA has provisions for State exchanges to have single payer/ public options. That is what candidates are running on here.

The priority Has to be Health Care For All.

The solution? with hold your vote unless you get the commitment by candidates.
 
Maybe you need to learn the definition of what 'a zero sum game means'. Strangely enough, we didn't have a race to the bottom prior to globalization. Prior to globalization, wages for the middle class were going up. Now, even when it booms, wages stagnate.

There was a sustained drop in both union membership and the political influence of unions at around the same time.
 
Its a very different environment today than 10 years ago. There wasn't the huge amount of strong public support 10 years ago for universal healthcare as now and none of the Democrats 10 years ago including Obama who campaign on universal healthcare were even trying to formulate a plan back then. Its important to remember that public political will can change over time. There are finally a new generation of Democrats (about 20 years too late but that's another issue) that is willing to champion these ideas. Also there is just more information available now and its impossible to dispute the benefits for universal health insurance.

I'm not disputing any of that. What I'm saying is that political tribalism makes any long term reform improbable, and the increasing rural-urban divide disadvantage Democrats to the extent that they always have to weigh the interests of their constituents against their political career.

Look at gun control, look at minimum wage, all gridlocked along party lines despite actual, overwhelming public support, that spurred voters who would otherwise benefit from those reforms to vote against their interests. If you are not willing to overthrow the current system, the only way is to get a long lasting workable majority that doesn't get voted out every 2 years, and to do that, you need electoral reform first and foremost.

Look at what Republicans have done. They courted the white working class with tax cuts and racism, they pushed for draconian laws that put black men in jail and thus strip away their voting rights, they aggressively push core voting blocs like evangelicals and gun nuts to keep their members in line, they infiltrated universities, created thinktanks and made alliance with media moguls and talk radio to shape the public discourse, and every chance they get to be in power, they made sure to squeeze out every bit of electoral advantage they could. Look at Florida 2000, look at what is happening now in North Carolina. Healthcare is an emotive issue that can win you a cycle or two, but it is also a double-edged sword that can turn against you if you can't deliver quickly.

It's a catch-22. Run on healthcare, get voted in, couldn't get it done due to opposition, get voted out. Run on electoral reform, lost because while you constituents agree with you, they prefer your opponent because he/she talks about jobs, tax cuts, healthcare (albeit the free-market version). Most people don't have the interest and/or attention span to follow all the arcane procedures in US politics, and enthusiasm wanes quickly.