I’m quite surprised that Utd are longer odds than Arsenal right now, I certainly wouldn’t view it that way
The chase for 4th place (not top 4)
- Thread starter Bastian
- Start date
This team has beaten West Ham twice, Wolves, Arsenal and Spurs this season. I wouldn’t be too worried about what our players can do!
You also got turned over in the game against us and comprehensively beaten by City. I do think you're favorites though. There's not enough consistency amongst the other sides and you have the best squad.
Arsenal don't have the goals. Spurs have shown they can drop points against anyone. Wolves & West Ham don't have the squad strength.
Yeah but here we are still in fourth! The City and Liverpool games aren’t going to decide our top 4. Even then we have had 3 (I think) defeats v top 10 opposition. Id also like to think we aren’t going to play as badly in the return games. I always fancy us away v City anyway.
I see a bit of overreaction for the Spurs and Arsenal results. You or City’s situation would be massive, it would be a massive result in a run that is the only realistic chance to drop points for a while. Meanwhile Spurs could easily drop points v Burnley and Arsenal edging out opposition isn’t a team grinding out results like champions but a team struggling to put teams away.
We are either going to wrap this up with a few games to go or not get in the top 4 imo. I don’t think it’s going to be a tight race either way
I don't think there's much between the 3 teams to be honest. I think Arsenal are probably the most set / organised team now, and the team that is most used to playing in their system (unsurprisingly considering Utd & Spurs have new managers).
However, I think Utd & Spurs have the better match winners at the top end of the pitch. Will be interesting to see what strength comes out on top.
However, I think Utd & Spurs have the better match winners at the top end of the pitch. Will be interesting to see what strength comes out on top.
Yeah I think it's hard to call with Arsenal. You have fewer games and can focus everything on the league but you lack goals. Smith-Rowe is your top scorer on 9 isn't he?
If you keep everyone fit then I think you're in with a shot but I'd still back United overall.
That Arsenal - Man Utd game looks large, but as close as it is our Chelsea - Man Utd game toward the end could also very much determine who is in 3rd or 4th. It is going to be a mad scramble at the end.
Arsenal is well positioned in terms of days between games because they have to concentrate only on PL matches. While others play under congested schedule including chelsea.
Everyother team plays 1 game on average of 4-5 days period while Arsenal plays 1 game every 7 days so this could be the deciding factor.
Everyother team plays 1 game on average of 4-5 days period while Arsenal plays 1 game every 7 days so this could be the deciding factor.
Things could be very different in 1 month time.
By March20,
Spurs play 6 games (Burnley,Leeds,Everton,Brighton,United,WestHam)
Arsenal play 5 games(Wolves,Watford,Leciester, Liverpool,Villa)
WestHam 4 games (Wolves, Liverpool,Villa,Spurs)
United 4 games (Watford,City,Spurs,Liverpool)
Arsenal WestHam & United , have to play inform teams like Wolves & Liverpool. Incase of United, add City to it. Whether its title or top4 or relegation, fight for each point is only going up. Spurs have game in hand & United have points on board. If the gap between 4th & 8th have to change, it has to happen in these fixtures. Its going to be a fascinating month from here.
By March20,
Spurs play 6 games (Burnley,Leeds,Everton,Brighton,United,WestHam)
Arsenal play 5 games(Wolves,Watford,Leciester, Liverpool,Villa)
WestHam 4 games (Wolves, Liverpool,Villa,Spurs)
United 4 games (Watford,City,Spurs,Liverpool)
Arsenal WestHam & United , have to play inform teams like Wolves & Liverpool. Incase of United, add City to it. Whether its title or top4 or relegation, fight for each point is only going up. Spurs have game in hand & United have points on board. If the gap between 4th & 8th have to change, it has to happen in these fixtures. Its going to be a fascinating month from here.
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I think even Arteta said he is going game by game. I don't really bother with the 4th place trophy as Arsenal doesn't have a strong enough squad to compete in the competition. We may not even have an experienced striker next season.
Just like any other game. It is just 3 points. It is pointless to win against Man Utd and draw or lose to Crystal Palace, Brighton and Watford.
While every win is 3 points worth, Arsenal are not competing with Palace, Brighton, Watford. If United is the direct rival for the 4th - then that is not a 3 pointer but a 6pointer.
Its not just about goals. Keeping clean sheets is important and its a trait Arsenal have picked up this season. Would you believe we have more clean sheets this season than Chelsea, and Ramsdale is in with a chance to win the golden glove over Edison and Allison. Ramsdale, Tomiyasu, White, Gabriel, Tierney, our back 4 picks itself, plus they get plenty of help from the midfield and upfront. You cant get away with not pressing form the front in this team, Arteta wont allow it.
we do need to start scoring more though, whether is Saka and ESR upping their goal tally, or Lacazette getting among the goals, or Martinelli or Odegaard getting a few more, who knows. But to be honest I am thrilled with the defensive resilience we are showing. We dont give away goals and our defensive standards are much higher. You could see this in this disappointment when Brentford scored a consolation to deny us a clean sheet last weekend.
Man Unitd dont have the stability we have at the back. Especially with Maguire constantly getting picked, going 2-0 against Leeds and giving away the lead, similar to what happened at Villa, although the points were rescued v Leeds.
Thats where I think we have the edge over Man United. I think our scoring problems can be resolved quicker than United inability to keep clean sheets.
Straight race between Arsenal and Man. United now I suspect.
Still a chance for Wolves but I think they'll hit indifferent run before end of season, were pretty lucky to beat Leicester on the balance of game.
Still a chance for Wolves but I think they'll hit indifferent run before end of season, were pretty lucky to beat Leicester on the balance of game.
Need Spurs to take points off Assnal.
You would think that Arsenal have to be slight favorites with their games at hand and the opposition in the next few matches. Tense times for the. Top four. On a lighter note by Saturday night Everton could very well be in the relegation zone.
Hopefully Kane can come to life against Arsenal and take a few points.
Their games in hand are two away trips to Spurs and Chelsea, then us at The Emirates. I don't think they'll get a lot from those three. Maybe a win at Spurs.
My money is on United if they get through the next few matchdays relatively unscathed.
You know what, I’m thinking about Arsenal’s next three matches compared to United’s. I like their chances.
Spurs beat City and then lose to Burnley while Conte throws a spammer in the works with his post match interview.....arsenal have the easiest run in of matches while United have the most difficult.
I don't know how many times this has to be repeated, but "games in hand" is not the same thing as "matches which were postponed."
United still has to play Spurs, Chelsea, and Liverpool too. We each have to play them once, that's how it works.
If anything, the most accurate way to think about "games in hand" vis-a-vis United specifically are games against teams that are not common opponents for the two squads.
Teams Arsenal has to play that United doesn't: Wolves, Villa, Southampton, Leeds, West Ham, Newcastle.
Teams United has to play that Arsenal doesn't: Man City, Brentford, Norwich.
If we imagined for a moment that both squads got equal points against their common opponents, then Arsenal would need 4 more points out of those six games than United got out of their three games in order to draw even in the table.
Great analysis and explained it nicely.
But United has to play Atleti again at home and possibly more tougher matches in UCL which will make it a congested fixture list where we will focus most of our fitness towards UCL knockouts.
I feel arsenal has the advantage of playing matches once in a week.
Hmm good point and well explained. You’ve convinced me. Ronaldo’s playing in Romania on Thursday nights next season.
They’re not that far off of Chelsea though.
From your lips to God's ears.
But we still have to play the games of course. And while Arsenal might have the advantage in terms of schedule, United still clearly have the advantage in terms of raw talent.
A lot of those teams will be in different states with different objectives and form depending on the dates the fixtures are played.
I would still fancy United to get it ahead of Arsenal at this stage if we can get some momentum going.
Games like Wolves, Newcastle, West Ham and Southampton are all tough. Very few easy games at the business end of the league.
There are times too, when United can get out of a bad situation with their individual talent, and while I think Arsenal have some fantastic young players, I still feel like they need to be the better team to win a game of football.
United, as bad as they are sometimes, have the ability to change a tight game in a 15 minute spell because of their individuals.
I also think that Rangnick is ever so slowly improving us, and that we could end the season a much better team than we started it. While that is also true for Arsenal, it isn’t as dramatic as how awful we were under Ole compared to today.
I would still fancy United to get it ahead of Arsenal at this stage if we can get some momentum going.
Games like Wolves, Newcastle, West Ham and Southampton are all tough. Very few easy games at the business end of the league.
There are times too, when United can get out of a bad situation with their individual talent, and while I think Arsenal have some fantastic young players, I still feel like they need to be the better team to win a game of football.
United, as bad as they are sometimes, have the ability to change a tight game in a 15 minute spell because of their individuals.
I also think that Rangnick is ever so slowly improving us, and that we could end the season a much better team than we started it. While that is also true for Arsenal, it isn’t as dramatic as how awful we were under Ole compared to today.
Good summary. Its difficult to look at fixture lists at the end of the season and assess difficulty as quite often teams that are battling for something like against relegation find a bit of form for a final push.
You are also correct in saying Utd are the team that has most improvement left in them. However, that also means that they actually have to make that improvement, whereas if Arsenal just manage to maintain their current level they will finish in 69-70 points which would be enough for top 4.
People talk about how inconsistent all the challengers are, but Arsenal have actually been very consistent. We have an average of 2.29 points per game against teams outside the 'traditional' top 6, while Utd have 1.86 on average. Arsenal's problem this season has been getting anything from those top 6 games, so again consistent, just consistently bad. Utd have faired a bit better than Arsenal in these games.
Think that means the Arsenal vs Utd game at the Emirates could be the old proverbial 6 pointer.
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Win tonight and Arsenal have it in the bag.
As always in football. No. It doesn't hinge upon one game less than 2/3rd of the season in.
Big result if Wolves hold out.
Arsenal straight up favorites now, with Spurs messing up.
United with an outside chance still.
United with an outside chance still.
1 point behind with 2 games in hand!
Hardly an outside chance. We’re in the top 4. Arsenal’s two games in hand are against Chelsea and Spurs.
We will still finish in the top 4, arsenal have games in hand against Chelsea and spurs
Arsenal two wins against Wolves have decided it. They won't mess up from this position surely.
Arsenal played with 10 men and won against Wolves, and now beat them in added time, so that'll boost their confidence.
That's sealed it.
My bad didn't see those cnuts scored in the last minute.
There’s 12 league games left to play, you bunch of spanners…You're right, I mean there's only three months of the season to go. It's all over!
Exactly