The centre-forward market...

[devilish]

I don't think Osimhen is realistic in January but I would try for Vlahovic. Juve aren't doing great and he has all the attributes to be a top CF in the PL. I don't think we are getting Bellingham so may as well put that money for a CF who will get us goals.

I dare to say that the opposite is more accurate and I'll tell you why

Napoli are flying high and quite frankly they are owned by a rich owner who doesn't need money. However De Laurentiis is as volatile, paranoiac and as mad as a hatter. If we offer him silly money in January then there's that slight probability that a thought would enter his head that if he refuse the fee then the team will now actively work against him for refusing the fee, that Napoli won't get anywhere near to that money in the summer and that in reality Osimhen would do that not because he wanted to join United but simply because he want to join Juventus and therefore he used the excuse of Napoli not selling him to lead a revolt against the club's interests and make Napoli fail. Yes he's that type of guy.

Juventus on the other hand is not passing from the best of times both admin wise and financial wise. There again Juventus with their 36 league titles (ie just 3 less then United and Liverpool COMBINED) represent the aristocracy of Italian football ie the heart of Turin ie the centre of its wealth. Their owners dynasty represent Italian business aristocracy as well. Old Agnelli was so powerful that he was able to stand up to Mussolini in his prime and survive the wrath of it. So there's alot of pride and arrogance in place here. They will never sell Vlahovic in January especially to us whom Juventus see as equals (or worse). It would be like us selling prime DDG in January to Bayern during the Moyes administration.

 

[Bojan Djordjic]

From what I heard he probably cost about £50-60m imo that's a not world class fee these days.

i guess we don't really know if that would seal the deal. Even smaller premiership clubs aren't under the same pressure to sell their best assets for sums that might be considered a reasonable valuation. However, even at that price I think it's too much to be paying for a guy that you buy on the understanding that you will upgrade once a better alternative is available. I'd see far more sense in trying to persuade Moukoko on a free as he could potentially turn into a worldy or Thuram who will be cheap and therefore you can allocate resources to other areas while seeking a world class striker in the medium term.

 

[Strootman's Finger]

I dare to say that the opposite is more accurate and I'll tell you why

Napoli are flying high and quite frankly they are owned by a rich owner who doesn't need money. However De Laurentiis is as volatile, paranoiac and as mad as a hatter. If we offer him silly money in January then there's that slight probability that a thought would enter his head that if he refuse the fee then the team will now actively work against him for refusing the fee, that Napoli won't get anywhere near to that money in the summer and that in reality Osimhen would do that not because he wanted to join United but simply because he want to join Juventus and therefore he used the excuse of Napoli not selling him to lead a revolt against the club's interests and make Napoli fail. Yes he's that type of guy.

Juventus on the other hand is not passing from the best of times both admin wise and financial wise. There again Juventus with their 36 league titles (ie just 3 less then United and Liverpool COMBINED) represent the aristocracy of Italian football ie the heart of Turin ie the centre of its wealth. Their owners dynasty represent Italian business aristocracy as well. Old Agnelli was so powerful that he was able to stand up to Mussolini in his prime and survive the wrath of it. So there's alot of pride and arrogance in place here. They will never sell Vlahovic in January especially to us whom Juventus see as equals (or worse). It would be like us selling prime DDG in January to Bayern during the Moyes administration.

Vlahovic was also desperate to go to Juventus. He was linked with Arsenal, and other clubs last Jan, but apparently he wasn't entertaining any idea other than Juve.

 

[Bojan Djordjic]

Agree in general, but Martial has numerous times down the years re-iterated that he prefers to be a central striker.
Anthony Martial: 'I want to be a central striker at Manchester United'
Anthony Martial reveals his favoured position for Manchester United
Anthony Martial exclusive: I do get angry, and I'm a striker first and foremost

I just wanted to clear up the confusion on this, because people keep repeating stuff Mourinho said about him being a better LW. Which is not what the player or his current manager think at all.

Ok fair enough, it doesn't really change my point too much. I would say that prior to EtH's arrival and IMHO, Martial had performed much better at left forward than in the centre.

 

[Bojan Djordjic]

None of us know how much we'd have to end up paying for Toney to be fair. Though I don't know how much you think the fee is for a world class forward is either. 'Pool and Chelsea paid £100m for Nunez and Lukaku. You think he'd cost that much? Or half?



Toney has certainly been a late bloomer and working slowly up the football ranks. He was playing League One at 23 years old. He's obviously not some stand out world class centre forward. But I'm not sure your assessment is fair on him. He has shown continuous improvement and solid output in his career.

He was top scorer of League One in 19/20 with 24 goals. He got a transfer to Brentford in the Championship and he immediately became the league's top scorer on his first season there with 31 goals and won promotion. Then he scored a quite impressive 12 goals in 33 games in his first season in the top flight with a club in the bottom half. And now he's currently 10 in 14 for midtable Brentford again.

This might be his ceiling or not, but he's only 26 and entering his peak. There's is nothing on his history to suggest that what he's doing is a black swan that is not sustainable or improvable upon.

I think you need to factor in penalties into his goal tallies. Last year for example 5 of his twelve goals were pens. In his 31 goal season in the championship, he had 9 pens and a non-penalty xG of 19.5. That's massive over-performance and by no means am I saying he's no good but you have to question whether its consistently repeatable and if he could do it in a completely different system. We've seen a lot of our transfers over the years really struggle in an alien system

On his cost, I don't think he would cost €100mn but nor do I think we would get him for anything near €50mn which is just too much for a player of his talents when we need to drop big money on a goalkeeper, a midfielder and also get backups for RB and CB in the near term.

 

[MadMike]

Ok fair enough, it doesn't really change my point too much. I would say that prior to EtH's arrival and IMHO, Martial had performed much better at left forward than in the centre.

Opinions, I guess. However for me it's very difficult to argue that the 19/20 season under Ole (when he had 23 goals and 11 assists from the striker position) was not by far and away his best season for us. Only 1 of those 23 goals were pens as well. No other season of his, before or after, comes even close.

 

[Messier1994]

Not even Ivan Toney will be available in January, unless you go absolutely bananas with the transfer fee.

If Brentford sell Toney, it could definitely be their Premier League spot. What is a PL spot worth, 100m?

 

[Bojan Djordjic]

This is pretty impressive from Osimhen from a goalscoring perspective.

 

[MadMike]

I think you need to factor in penalties into his goal tallies. Last year for example 5 of his twelve goals were pens. In his 31 goal season in the championship, he had 9 pens and a non-penalty xG of 19.5. That's massive over-performance and by no means am I saying he's no good but you have to question whether its consistently repeatable and if he could do it in a completely different system. We've seen a lot of our transfers over the years really struggle in an alien system

On his cost, I don't think he would cost €100mn but nor do I think we would get him for anything near €50mn which is just too much for a player of his talents when we need to drop big money on a goalkeeper, a midfielder and also get backups for RB and CB in the near term.

He scores a fair few pens no doubt and it's valid to bring it up. But I don't really understand the obsession with the XG. He was outperforming his non-penatly XG in the Championship and he's outperforming it now in the EPL too. So long as he gets into positions to score goals and bangs them in, I don't see the issue. His xG is still fairly high considering his good all around game. The last thing is what I like about him. He is fast on the break, he presses, he is good with head and feet and he links up very well.

I think 50m is mid-level in todays market. We paid that much for AWB, Martinez, and almost the same for Donny. For me Toney is a good investment for that money, he's an EPL striker entering his peak. Above that and it may be pushing it. I have no idea what Brentford would ask for to be fair. In either case, he would be one for the summer no the winter.

 

[King7Eric]

I dare to say that the opposite is more accurate and I'll tell you why

Napoli are flying high and quite frankly they are owned by a rich owner who doesn't need money. However De Laurentiis is as volatile, paranoiac and as mad as a hatter. If we offer him silly money in January then there's that slight probability that a thought would enter his head that if he refuse the fee then the team will now actively work against him for refusing the fee, that Napoli won't get anywhere near to that money in the summer and that in reality Osimhen would do that not because he wanted to join United but simply because he want to join Juventus and therefore he used the excuse of Napoli not selling him to lead a revolt against the club's interests and make Napoli fail. Yes he's that type of guy.

Juventus on the other hand is not passing from the best of times both admin wise and financial wise. There again Juventus with their 36 league titles (ie just 3 less then United and Liverpool COMBINED) represent the aristocracy of Italian football ie the heart of Turin ie the centre of its wealth. Their owners dynasty represent Italian business aristocracy as well. Old Agnelli was so powerful that he was able to stand up to Mussolini in his prime and survive the wrath of it. So there's alot of pride and arrogance in place here. They will never sell Vlahovic in January especially to us whom Juventus see as equals (or worse). It would be like us selling prime DDG in January to Bayern during the Moyes administration.

Fair enough regarding the point about Juve not wanting to sell.

Regarding the De Laurentiis point, I don't quite know how to process that.... one would have to be quite insane to have that line of thinking, which maybe he has for all I know.

 

[Bojan Djordjic]

He scores a fair few pens no doubt and it's valid to bring it up. But I don't really understand the obsession with the XG. He was outperforming his non-penatly XG in the Championship and he's outperforming it now in the EPL too. So long as he gets into positions to score goals and bangs them in, I don't see the issue. His xG is still fairly high considering his good all around game. The last thing is what I like about him. He is fast on the break, he presses, he is good with head and feet and he links up very well.

I think 50m is mid-level in todays market. We paid that much for AWB, Martinez, and almost the same for Donny. For me Toney is a good investment for that money, he's an EPL striker entering his peak. Above that and it may be pushing it. I have no idea what Brentford would ask for to be fair. In either case, he would be one for the summer no the winter.

Don't want to drag the thread into an xG debate but over-performing xG is not necessarily a good thing even if it seems to be. It means he's scoring chances that from unlikely positions and hence may be unrepeatable over time. Very few players outperform the xG in the long run and therefore the argument is that while Toney might be overperforming now, over the long term he will regress to the mean. Given goal scoring is specifically an area we need to really improve, I would want someone who has a high xG and is therefore demonstrating that they can generate shooting chances in good areas consistently. Toney is in the 44th percentile for non-penalty xG and this just isn't UNited standard in my opinion even if he is on a hot streak right now. Thuram is 95th, Moukoko is 95th and Osimhen is 98th.

Respect your views and if Toney was available on a free or in the 20mn range I'd feel differently but realistically in January he would be closer to 60/70mn and then it doesn't make sense not to just buy the Osimhen level player for 30mn more.

 

[sullydnl]

I think you need to factor in penalties into his goal tallies. Last year for example 5 of his twelve goals were pens. In his 31 goal season in the championship, he had 9 pens and a non-penalty xG of 19.5. That's massive over-performance and by no means am I saying he's no good but you have to question whether its consistently repeatable and if he could do it in a completely different system. We've seen a lot of our transfers over the years really struggle in an alien system

On his cost, I don't think he would cost €100mn but nor do I think we would get him for anything near €50mn which is just too much for a player of his talents when we need to drop big money on a goalkeeper, a midfielder and also get backups for RB and CB in the near term.

Yep.

To put Toney's goal threat into context, during that season he had a non-penalty xG per 90 of 0.46. Whereas a player like Osimhen has been 0.61+ in each of his seasons in Napoli.

So in every one of Osimhen's Napoli seasons he has offered signifcantly more threat from open play than Toney did in his best ever season. And that's despite Toney having been playing in the Championship that year while Osimhen has been operating in the tougher Serie A.

Which doesn't make Toney a bad player or a bad option. But it does highlight why he isn't one of the elite options on the market and wouldn't be value if priced near them.

He scores a fair few pens no doubt and it's valid to bring it up. But I don't really understand the obsession with the XG. He was outperforming his non-penatly XG in the Championship and he's outperforming it now in the EPL too. So long as he gets into positions to score goals and bangs them in, I don't see the issue. His xG is still fairly high considering his good all around game. The last thing is what I like about him. He is fast on the break, he presses, he is good with head and feet and he links up very well.

I think 50m is mid-level in todays market. We paid that much for AWB, Martinez, and almost the same for Donny. For me Toney is a good investment for that money, he's an EPL striker entering his peak. Above that and it may be pushing it. I have no idea what Brentford would ask for to be fair. In either case, he would be one for the summer no the winter.

In this case we'd focus on xG because it is generally a better predictor of future goals than actual goals scored. So if you're trying to make a judgement on what returns Toney will likely get in the future, looking at his expected returns will tell you more than looking at his returns will.

Plus we also know that getting chances is a more repeatable aspect of goalscoring than finishing. In other words you generally want your striker to be getting high xG rather than to be finishing above his xG.

 

[MadMike]

@sully07 and @Bojan Djordjic

Lads, the reasons I don't trust xG and don't consider it a very good indicator are fairly simple. It disregards overall gameplay, league difficulty, team playstyle and your team quality vs the average of the league. But I'll play the xG game a bit longer. I'm bored at work.

Toney has a np-xG per 90 of 0.41, for this season so far. He's getting close to his Championship level of 0.46 no-XG. Osimhen is steady at 0.62 as you mentioned. Yet one is playing for Italian league leaders and the other is playing for mid-table Brentford. I would expect the leading striker of the top team to get more goalscoring opportunities due to the simple fact that his team dominates more games and spends more time attacking than defending.

Lukaku also had a np-XG of 0.57 while leading the line at Inter on their title march in 20/21. At United, the years prior, it was 0.39 and 0.44. At Chelsea, 0.35. His xG dropped dramatically in a harder league, playing for teams that didn't create as many chances. So what is obvious is that the better the team plays and the more attacking football it plays, the higher the xG of the strikers. There is no metric to include a "handicap" of playing for a lower quality, out of form or defensive team. So I find the below informatic, pretty useless...

It says "Only Robert Lewandowski, Erling Haaland, and Kylian Mbappé have a higher xG/90 than Osimhen in the Big 5 Leagues this season". All that tells me, is that the main strikers from the top-of-the-league teams of Italy, Spain, England and France... are the ones with the highest xG across those leagues. Well d'uh, lads!

But I look at Osimhen as a player and as stats and I see someone who shoots a lot and gets into good positions a lot, but lacks a bit on hold-up play and doesn't bring others as much into play. He's a little on the selfish side, perhaps weak on the link-up. His xAG has been 0.14, 0.09, 0.11 (so far) in the last 3 seasons. Toney's xAG is 0.18 (Championship), 0.18 (EPL), 0.15 (so far) in the last three seasons. That's considerable difference given he plays for an inferior team that scores less.

Finally I look at Toney's stats and see way more tackles, interceptions, blocks, pressures, clearances and aerials won per 90. Yes, some of that is because his team defends more than a top team like Napoli. But I see a player that while perhaps an inferior goalscorer, is a more rounded contributor and a better fit for an ETH style pressing team. Crucially, one who performs on this league and relishes and thrives under its particular rigours. He's more of a fighter.

If Osimhen does a Lukaku and his np-xG drops by 0.17 to 0.45 in the EPL, then the rest of his game doesn't offer much at all from what I see. He'll be as big and as an expensive flop as Lukaku, for the exact same reasons. Osimhen at 0.45 xG is a worse player than Toney at 0.45 xG.

This team (United) has plenty of goals in it. Do not be fooled by our current stats. It's because Ronaldo has been playing a lot due to the absence of Martial. Our xG per 90 with Martial is entirely different to that with Ronaldo...

The players surrounding our main striker (Rashford, Sancho, Fernandes, Eriksen, Antony), they all have plenty of goals in them. That's if the team is built around main strikers who work for the team not just for themselves. That's what Ronaldo was missing, and the team suffered for it, even as he posted an impressive 0.57 np-XG last season. That's what Martial does and that's what we need more of. Yes I do want goals from the striker too, of course! I don't want all the burden to be on wingers and attacking midfielders. But goals alone and, even more so, xG, are nowhere near good enough indicators of overall striker quality. Peace

 

[andersj]

@sully07 and @Bojan Djordjic

Lads, the reasons I don't trust xG and don't consider it a very good indicator are fairly simple. It disregards overall gameplay, league difficulty and your team quality vs the average of the league. But I'll play the xG game a bit longer. I'm bored at work.

Toney has a np-xG per 90 of 0.41, for this season so far. He's getting close to his Championship level for of 0.46 no-XG. Osimhen is steady at 0.62 as you mentioned. Yet one is playing for Italian league leaders and the other is playing for mid-table Brentford. I would expect the leading striker of the top team to get more goalscoring opportunities due to the simple fact that his team dominates more games and spends more time attacking than defending.

Lukaku also had a np-XG of 0.57 while leading the line at Inter on their title march in 20/21. At United the years prior, 0.39 and 0.44. At Chelsea, 0.35. In other words, the better the team plays the higher the xG of the strikers. There is no metric to include a "handicap" of playing for a lower quality or out of form team. So I find the below informatic, pretty useless...



It says "Only Robert Lewandowski, Erling Haaland, and Kylian Mbappé have a higher xG/90 than Osimhen in the Big 5 Leagues this season". All that tells me, is that the main strikers from the top-of-the-league teams of Italy, Spain, England and France... are the ones with the highest xG across those leagues. Well d'uh, lads!

But I look at Osimhen as a player and as stats and I see someone who shoots a lot and gets into good positions a lot, but lacks a bit on hold-up play and doesn't bring others as much into play. He's alittle on the selfish side. His xAG has been 0.14, 0.09, 0.11 (so far) in the last 3 seasons. Toney's xAG is 0.18 (Championship), 0.18 (EPL), 0.15 (so far) in the last three seasons. That's considerable given he players for an inferior team.

Finally I look at Toney's stats and see way more tackles, interceptions, blocks, pressures, clearances and aerials won. Yes, some of that is because his team defends more than a top team like Napoli. But I see a player that while perhaps an inferior goalscorer, is a more rounded contributor and a better fit for an ETH style pressing team. Crucially, one who performs on this league and relishes and thrives under its particular rigours. If Osimhen does a Lukaku and his xG drops to 0.45 in the EPL, the rest of his game doesn't offer much at all from what I see. He'll be as big and as an expensive flop as Lukaku, for the exact same reasons. Osimhen at 0.45 xG is a far worse player than Toney at 0.45 xG.

This team (United) has plenty of goals in it. Do not be fooled by our current stats. It's because Ronaldo has been playing a lot due to the absence of Martial. Our xG per 90 with Martial is entirely different to that with Ronaldo...

Our other forwards (Rashford, Sancho, Fernandes, Eriksen, Antony) all have plenty of goals in them, if the team is built around strikers who work for the team not just for themselves. That's what Ronaldo was missing, even as he posted an impressive 0.57 np-XG last season. That's what Martial does and that's what we need more of. Yes I do want goals from the striker too, of course. I don't want all the burder to be on wingers and attacking midfielders. But goals and, even more, so xG, are nowhere near good indicators of striker quality.

I think you really underestimate how willing Oshimen is to press. That is a huge difference between Lukaku and Oshimen. It is also an area of the game were Oshimen outedges Toney by quite a bit.

When you look at pressing stats for strikers the most interesting part, in my opinion, is how much they press in the final third. Statsbomb actually had numbers on it (used to be available on fbref, but now gone). If I’m not mistaken, Oshimen was in the 95th percentile in that perspect. He was involved in more than 10 pressing sequences per 90 min in the final third.

(I also really like Toney, but he is quite similar to Martial. And I suspect EtH have not given up on Martial and will be looking to bring in someone with a different skill sett.)

 

[Strelok]

@sully07 and @Bojan Djordjic

Lads, the reasons I don't trust xG and don't consider it a very good indicator are fairly simple. It disregards overall gameplay, league difficulty and your team quality vs the average of the league. But I'll play the xG game a bit longer. I'm bored at work.

Toney has a np-xG per 90 of 0.41, for this season so far. He's getting close to his Championship level for of 0.46 no-XG. Osimhen is steady at 0.62 as you mentioned. Yet one is playing for Italian league leaders and the other is playing for mid-table Brentford. I would expect the leading striker of the top team to get more goalscoring opportunities due to the simple fact that his team dominates more games and spends more time attacking than defending.

Lukaku also had a np-XG of 0.57 while leading the line at Inter on their title march in 20/21. At United the years prior, 0.39 and 0.44. At Chelsea, 0.35. In other words, the better the team plays the higher the xG of the strikers. There is no metric to include a "handicap" of playing for a lower quality or out of form team. So I find the below informatic, pretty useless...



It says "Only Robert Lewandowski, Erling Haaland, and Kylian Mbappé have a higher xG/90 than Osimhen in the Big 5 Leagues this season". All that tells me, is that the main strikers from the top-of-the-league teams of Italy, Spain, England and France... are the ones with the highest xG across those leagues. Well d'uh, lads!

But I look at Osimhen as a player and as stats and I see someone who shoots a lot and gets into good positions a lot, but lacks a bit on hold-up play and doesn't bring others as much into play. He's a little on the selfish side, perhaps weak on the link-up. His xAG has been 0.14, 0.09, 0.11 (so far) in the last 3 seasons. Toney's xAG is 0.18 (Championship), 0.18 (EPL), 0.15 (so far) in the last three seasons. That's considerable difference given he plays for an inferior team that scores less.

Finally I look at Toney's stats and see way more tackles, interceptions, blocks, pressures, clearances and aerials won per 90. Yes, some of that is because his team defends more than a top team like Napoli. But I see a player that while perhaps an inferior goalscorer, is a more rounded contributor and a better fit for an ETH style pressing team. Crucially, one who performs on this league and relishes and thrives under its particular rigours. He's more of a fighter. If Osimhen does a Lukaku and his xG drops to 0.45 in the EPL, the rest of his game doesn't offer much at all from what I see. He'll be as big and as an expensive flop as Lukaku, for the exact same reasons. Osimhen at 0.45 xG is a far worse player than Toney at 0.45 xG.

This team (United) has plenty of goals in it. Do not be fooled by our current stats. It's because Ronaldo has been playing a lot due to the absence of Martial. Our xG per 90 with Martial is entirely different to that with Ronaldo...

Our other forwards (Rashford, Sancho, Fernandes, Eriksen, Antony) all have plenty of goals in them, if the team is built around strikers who work for the team not just for themselves. That's what Ronaldo was missing and the team overall suffered, even as he posted an impressive 0.57 np-XG last season. That's what Martial does and that's what we need more of. Yes I do want goals from the striker too, of course! I don't want all the burden to be on wingers and attacking midfielders. But goals and, even more, so xG, are nowhere near good enough indicators of overall striker quality. Peace

Fantastic post indeed.

Agree Toney seems more rounded and would fit better to ETH style. But he scored two goals against City last week and has scored 10 this season. If he keeps the rate he might ends with 20-25 goals. Brentford might very well ask for £100m in the summer imo.

 

[DomesticTadpole]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/breaking-brentford-striker-ivan-toney-28509992

 

[charlenefan]

ITK's linking us with Alou Kuol whoever he is

 

[MadMike]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/breaking-brentford-striker-ivan-toney-28509992

'Kinell. I would say I fecking jinxed him but he did all that way before I started posting for him

 

[RedCoffee]

Fantastic post indeed.

Agree Toney seems more rounded and would fit better to ETH style. But he scored two goals against City last week and has scored 10 this season. If he keeps the rate he might ends with 20-25 goals. Brentford might very well ask for £100m in the summer imo.

Don't think he's going anywhere now. See breaking sports news. Disappointing as he would have been the ideal January signing.

 

[DomesticTadpole]

'Kinell. I would say I fecking jinxed him but he did all that way before I started posting for him

Silly lad, could ruin everything for him.

 

[MadMike]

ITK's linking us with Alou Kuol whoever he is

Probably a joke

 

[MadMike]

I think you really underestimate how willing Oshimen is to press. That is a huge difference between Lukaku and Oshimen. It is also an area of the game were Oshimen outedges Toney by quite a bit.

When you look at pressing stats for strikers the most interesting part, in my opinion, is how much they press in the final third. Statsbomb actually had numbers on it (used to be available on fbref, but now gone). If I’m not mistaken, Oshimen was in the 95th percentile in that perspect. He was involved in more than 10 pressing sequences per 90 min in the final third.

(I also really like Toney, but he is quite similar to Martial. And I suspect EtH have not given up on Martial and will be looking to bring in someone with a different skill sett.)

I’d be curious to see those stats, as presses are indeed no longer there. I remember however seeing on Reddit some EPL pressing stats from last year that put Brentford as a team, in the top 4 in the EPL in terms of presses.

 

[andersj]

I’d be curious to see those stats, as presses are indeed no longer there. I remember however seeing on Reddit some EPL pressing stats from last year that put Brentford as a team, in the top 4 in the EPL in terms of presses.

Yeah, I too miss that from when they used data from Statbomb. I remember Oshimen being at around 10 pressing sequences per 90 min in the final third. Lewandowski in his prime was around 7. Richarlison was one of the most active pressers in the final third in the PL, and he was at around 10 per 90 min aswell.

I think you easily notice it too when watching them. He plays a high intensity game. Very similar to Nunez in my opinion.

 

[Smores]

I’d be curious to see those stats, as presses are indeed no longer there. I remember however seeing on Reddit some EPL pressing stats from last year that put Brentford as a team, in the top 4 in the EPL in terms of presses.

Those stats were so ambiguous to be pointless anyway. What constitutes a press can vastly differ and be a bit misleading. You can already be close to a player and therefore get a press, you can slowly jog towards players and get a press (Rashford does that a lot) or you can have the useful kind of pressing with genuine rapid pressure and they're all equally weighted.

Pressing leading to a loss of the ball would be more telling but I've yet to come across any site that provide it.

 

[Zaphod2319]

 

[Lash]

ITK's linking us with Alou Kuol whoever he is

Some 18 year old Australian who's broken into their national team. I think we, along a lot of other teams will be watching him at the WC.

 

[Bojan Djordjic]

Some 18 year old Australian who's broken into their national team. I think we, along a lot of other teams will be watching him at the WC.

Think you're thinking of his younger brother who has just signed for Newcastle. Supposed to be the best Aussie talent in years. Knowing us, that's who we think we're signing and not his 22 year old brother who has yet to start a game for Stuttgart.

 

[MadMike]

Those stats were so ambiguous to be pointless anyway. What constitutes a press can vastly differ and be a bit misleading. You can already be close to a player and therefore get a press, you can slowly jog towards players and get a press (Rashford does that a lot) or you can have the useful kind of pressing with genuine rapid pressure and they're all equally weighted.

Pressing leading to a loss of the ball would be more telling but I've yet to come across any site that provide it.

Yeah that’s a fair point.

Anyway, Toney’s season is about to be derailed by the look of things and he’s gonna have to spend at least another season at Brentford to rehabilitate his reputation after that.

I’m getting on the Thuram train instead.

 

[Lash]

Think you're thinking of his younger brother who has just signed for Newcastle. Supposed to be the best Aussie talent in years. Knowing us, that's who we think we're signing and not his 22 year old brother who has yet to start a game for Stuttgart.

That I am! Didn't even know he had a brother.

 

[andersj]

Those stats were so ambiguous to be pointless anyway. What constitutes a press can vastly differ and be a bit misleading. You can already be close to a player and therefore get a press, you can slowly jog towards players and get a press (Rashford does that a lot) or you can have the useful kind of pressing with genuine rapid pressure and they're all equally weighted.

Pressing leading to a loss of the ball would be more telling but I've yet to come across any site that provide it.

I do think Statsbomb have a success rate on their pressing too (where success equal ball loss)?

I also think that for the most part, the statistic aligned well with the eye. Players with an aggressive, highly intensive style of play came out with high numbers. If you where a coach, and identified a player like that with a low success ratio you would probably find his potential highet than someone with low pressing numbers and a higher success ratio (like Ronaldo/Lukaku).

 

[Borussia Teeth]

In normal circumstances I agree with you. However these are not normal circumstances.

A- United are not yet a title contender
B- There aren't many top strikers around and the few that are mint are unavailable. The rest are more like Osimhen type of player who'd cost 70m-100m and who can easily become the next Lukaku or even worse

Thus I think we should thread lightly here. I'd say lets get a top young talent like Moukoko and maybe someone like Thuram, Gapko or Dembele on cheap/free as well and see how it would work out. I'd rather see us giving them a generous signing on fee (20m?) then increase their salary. Thus it would be possible to get rid off if they aren't that great.

No! I agree on signing Moukoko but giving free agents large signing on fees is asking for trouble. If I was a player in the process of renewing my deal (Rashford, Shaw, Dalot, possibly Garnacho) I would be asking for a 20m signing on fee if my club was giving that to new player. It sets a precedent.

 

[NoPace]

That is so silly - you don't measure strikers primarily on ball carrying and forward passes! Those are more metrics for attacking midfielders, and most the players on there are indeed attacking midfielders.

The 1 of the 3 things our current best #9 in Martial brings to the table here is his ball carrying (lay offs back to goal the other, everything else is real meh to genuinely bad) so I think those factors are a little more relevant for us. Cristiano's best contribution lately was dropping deep and playing in Garnacho with a forward pass.

A 20 year old #9 whose coaches trusts him to lead the line and has the skill to dribble and pass is potentially a complete striker at age 25. Players get stronger in their early 20s, they don't tend to improve their dribbling and quickness as much. Vision can definitely improve though, especially for 9s who go from not great to very good creators like Drogba or from decent to great forward passers like Kane did in their mid 20s.

There's no Dortmund Lewandowski or even Benzema Lyon level young striker available to buy here, so anyone we buy probably has to improve in some crucial regard in their game, whether it be finishing or a young guy getting stronger and becoming more physical or someone learning to head the ball well.

 

[golden_blunder]

One guy I am starting to think could be of some interest is Mykhailo Mudryk.

We have been linked to him just recently, but it does not get much attention because he is a out and out LW.

So who is this guy? His nickname is ‘Ukraine Neymar’. That isn’t very telling from a playing style POV. I would more compare him to guys like Mbappe, Bale or even Rashford. He is like really explosive. Superb technique. Some spectacular dribbles. But what sets him apart is that he just blows past people. And he doesn’t do it in like the Dutch league, he is at that level in the CL hands down.

But what awoke my interest of him comes from the information about him that is out there. And we do know a lot since both him and his team have been very outspoken, in a good way.
*Shaktar will want a lot of money for him. Think it is Srna who is the boss there who said that they think he is a top 3 LW in Europe behind only Leao and Vinicius. They even brought up Antony directly and said if he is worth 85, MM is worth like 100 (something like that).
*He wanted out last summer, but Shaktar blocked a move despite bids from like Leverkusen. He is now going for a a move in January.
*In an interview he was asked if he would rather be a starter for Arsenal or a bench player for Real, and he said that he will want to be a starter for sure.

The thing is, he is a top talent and already a really good player. He is available in January. Shaktar’s request will be high, but they are not going to be able to hold out for 90-100m for Mudryk. Most likely we are looking at like 60-70m.

So ultimately — he is by far the biggest and best player available in January. Odds are that on Feb 1, he is the biggest deal done in January 2023.

But who is buying him?
-He has been heavily linked to Arsenal. They are salivating about the opportunity to get him. BUT, he isn’t a starter for Arsenal. They are not breaking up Martinelli-Jesus-Sahka. Right? For Arsenal, he is like ‘oh my good we can get a world class player for 40m which gives us depth compareable to City with Grealish/Fodden’.
-He has also been heavily linked to Real. But of course, he is only back-up to Vinicius there.
-Chelsea are getting Nkunku, and have players there already.
-Liverpool is for sure interested, by they aim to invest heavily in CMs. Just bought Felix and Darwin.
-The one to watch from my POV is Newcastle.

So why would he make sense for us? Thing is, — realistically — he is the only really good player available in January. Gakpo is behind him.

He is a really versatile player, who have played across the forward line for Shaktar. He is basically two footed. Like, do I think whomever buys him from Shaktar for 60m plus addons will make a good signing? Definitely.

He is the perfect striker for ETH? Nope. But Mudryk at LW and Rashford at ST or vice versa (more likely), Mudryk at ST and Rashford at LW — is definitely something ETH can work with.

And I think everyone knows deep down that we should only be making these type of signings. 22 y/o. On the rise, already great. A discount on the price because teams aren’t looking for a player in his main position and Shaktar aren’t in a position to snooze his transfer much longer. Yeah, it is not perfect that he is not an out and out striker. But he has played there. He has all the intangibles to do so. With him and Rashford rotating positions in game, he got potential there. I just would not rule it out.

Reminds me of blomquist

 

[Messier1994]

Reminds me of blomquist

Was he ever that good? Remember Gothenburg making noise in the Champions League and he was like the only talented kid on a team full of defensive specialists.

 

[Bepi]

Vlahovic may be available next June already or, better, in June 2024 after three years at Juventus, like De Ligt. Not that Juve fans care too much: we are pretty disillusioned and our best hope is a group of players coalesce together to form a new spine sooner than later. If he wants to stay, good! If not, he would surely fetch a good offer and ciao.

 

[Messier1994]

Anyone have any feel for how long suspension he will get? I remember Barton and Trippier’s suspensions, but they had connections to bets on their own teams or in Trippier’s case, he own transfer, right?

 

[UNITED ACADEMY]

The likes of Vlahovic and Osimhen and co would cost 100m. That's money won't be available especially if we're aiming for Bellingham as well. In my opinion we should be realistic. I'd say we should aim at the likes of Moukoko and Thuram whose good talent and will soon be free agents. We can make some great bargains next year with Skriniar replacing Maguire, Laimar replacing Fred, Aouar/Tielemans acting as Eriksen cover/competitor and Moukoko/Thuram replacing Ronaldo.

I would say we shouldn't be aiming for Bellingham just to sacrifice the quality of forward we can bring in.

 

[croadyman]

i guess we don't really know if that would seal the deal. Even smaller premiership clubs aren't under the same pressure to sell their best assets for sums that might be considered a reasonable valuation. However, even at that price I think it's too much to be paying for a guy that you buy on the understanding that you will upgrade once a better alternative is available. I'd see far more sense in trying to persuade Moukoko on a free as he could potentially turn into a worldy or Thuram who will be cheap and therefore you can allocate resources to other areas while seeking a world class striker in the medium term.

Yeah that is a very sensible approach but then this is Utd you are talking about so could easily do something daft

 

[MadDogg]

Ok fair enough, it doesn't really change my point too much. I would say that prior to EtH's arrival and IMHO, Martial had performed much better at left forward than in the centre.

Really? Easily his best two seasons were in 15/16 (his first season) and 19/20, two seasons that he played mostly at striker. Obviously he had two shit seasons at striker in his last two (the latter at least somewhat due to injury), but his best has certainly been up front.

In the three seasons that he played on the left he had one bad and two where he was fairly good in the short periods he actually got a run in the team (due to Mourinho not liking him), but certainly nowhere near as good as his two top seasons.

 

[devilish]

I would say we shouldn't be aiming for Bellingham just to sacrifice the quality of forward we can bring in.

The problem is that there aren't any Shearer/RVN/Batistuta strikers out there who would justify us spending silly money on them either.