Storeytime 2015/16

Damien

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Copied from Scrumpet's thread, if any logic is wrong blame him.

As always the idea is to negate the impact of easy/hard fixture lists to see where teams are really at relative to each other. Par is to win the league with 83 points. To do that you need to:

Win all your home games: 57 points
Lose away against the Top 6: 0 points
Draw away against the Middle 8: 8 points
Win away against the Bottom 6: 18 points

The arbitrarily chosen tiers are:

Top 6: Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool.*
Bottom 6: Newcastle United, Sunderland, Aston Villa, AFC Bournemouth, Watford, Norwich City.
Middle 8: Southampton, Swansea City, Stoke City, Crystal Palace, Everton, West Ham United, West Bromwich Albion, Leicester City.*

*To make sure par is the same for everybody, I considered Liverpool a Middle 8 side for non-Top 6 teams and Leicester City a Bottom 6 team for other Bottom 6 teams.

After one game the scores for the twenty teams I did are:

+2: Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City
+1: Swansea City
0: Everton, Manchester United, West Ham United
-1: Arsenal
-2: Chelsea, Stoke City, Tottenham Hotspur, Watford
-3: Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Newcastle United, Norwich City
-4: AFC Bournemouth
-5: Southampton, West Bromwich Albion
-6: Sunderland
 
I've never understood what the feck is going on in this thread. Is there an idiot's guide?
 
Only problem is, the average amount of points the winning side has ended up with over the last 6 seasons is 86,16

14/15: 87
13/14: 86
12/13: 89
11/12: 89
10/11: 80
09/10: 86

83 points will probably not do it.
 
Pentame said:
Only problem is, the average amount of points the winning side has ended up with over the last 6 seasons is 86,16

14/15: 87
13/14: 86
12/13: 89
11/12: 89
10/11: 80
09/10: 86

83 points will probably not do it.
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Well you only need more points than the 2nd place side. Doesn't make a difference to the system anyway
 
Sied said:
I've never understood what the feck is going on in this thread. Is there an idiot's guide?
Click to expand...
Win all your home games: 57 points
Lose away against the Top 6: 0 points
Draw away against the Middle 8: 8 points
Win away against the Bottom 6: 18 points

If you win a game you weren't expected to win...like away to the top 6 it goes to +3
If you beat one of the middle 8 you get +2 as you only need to get a draw for par
If you lose a game at home it goes to -3.
If you win a home game it stays at 0 as you are expected to win all your home games
 
Attila said:
Win all your home games: 57 points
Lose away against the Top 6: 0 points
Draw away against the Middle 8: 8 points
Win away against the Bottom 6: 18 points

If you win a game you weren't expected to win...like away to the top 6 it goes to +3
If you beat one of the middle 8 you get +2 as you only need to get a draw for par
If you lose a game at home it goes to -3.
If you win a home game it stays at 0 as you are expected to win all your home games
Click to expand...
But what's the point? What are we working out here?
 
Sied said:
I've never understood what the feck is going on in this thread. Is there an idiot's guide?
Click to expand...
Those 4 points at the start are what's 'expected' of you to win the title with 83 points (57+8+18 = 83 pts).

So if you beat a top 6 team away, you get +3 as par is to lose. If you beat a middle 8 team away, you get +2 as par is to get 1 point (draw). If you lose at home, you get -3. Draw at home, you get -2. Win at home and it's +0, on par. And so on.

So for this gameweek: West Ham beat a top 6 team away, so they get +3. Arsenal lost at home, so they're on -3. Swansea drew away to a top 6 team, so they're on plus 1. Chelsea drew at home, so they're on -2.
 
Sied said:
But what's the point? What are we working out here?
Click to expand...

Nothing much. Gives you an idea of how you doing relative to the fixture list a team has had. But then the actual fecking table is always better. As someone said, go to RAWK and you might just learn everything you need to know about something that has no use.
 
Sied said:
But what's the point? What are we working out here?
Click to expand...
Because the real table doesn't account for the different quality of teams you have played so the table in the OP gives a clearer view of where your team is in terms of a title chase.

Like if chelsea won two away games in a row to city and arsenal they would be plus +6, they have achieved more than what is expected. if at the same time United beat two bottom teams at home it would still be at 0 as it is what you expect to win the title
 
Moonred said:
Nothing much. Gives you an idea of how you doing relative to the fixture list a team has had. But then the actual fecking table is always better. As someone said, go to RAWK and you might just learn everything you need to know about something that has no use.
Click to expand...
But everyone plays everyone else twice a season so overall the actual table does this already.
 
Raw said:
Those 4 points at the start are what's 'expected' of you to win the title with 83 points (57+8+18 = 83 pts).

So if you beat a top 6 team away, you get +3 as par is to lose. If you beat a middle 8 team away, you get +2 as par is to get 1 point (draw). If you lose at home, you get -3. Draw at home, you get -2. Win at home and it's +0, on par. And so on.

So for this gameweek: West Ham beat a top 6 team away, so they get +3. Arsenal lost at home, so they're on -3. Swansea drew away to a top 6 team, so they're on plus 1. Chelsea drew at home, so they're on -2.
Click to expand...

Attila said:
Because the real table doesn't account for the different quality of teams you have played so the table in the OP gives a clearer view of where your team is in terms of a title chase.

Like if chelsea won two away games in a row to city and arsenal they would be plus +6, they have achieved more than what is expected. if at the same time United beat two bottom teams at home it would still be at 0 as it is what you expect to win the title
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Understood now. Much obliged gents.
 
JustAFan said:
But everyone plays everyone else twice a season so overall the actual table does this already.
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Its good for early on in the season when for example say arsenal had an 'easy' run, 10 games against the worst 10 sides in the league and had 30 points, but chelsea in second had only 22 points but had only played the top 10 teams. In the actual league everyone would be going mental about how arsenal are going to walk the league, whereas this is a more realistic represention of the early parts of the season
 
JustAFan said:
But everyone plays everyone else twice a season so overall the actual table does this already.
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Well yeah, but this gives you an idea of where you stand relative to others at any point in the season.

I think Leicester City we'll be comfortably in the bottom 6 soon enough as opposed to Aston Villa or possibly Newcastle.
 
Basically, it's most useful up until Christmas, particularly if you are a scouser as one out of this or the official table will give you hope. After XMAS they both stop working and it's on to "if we scored every time we hit a post" league tables and the like.
 
This is closely followed by the net spender championship.

Utter shite excuse for your team being in the bottom half at Christmas - Hope for the deluded.
 
Pentame said:
Only problem is, the average amount of points the winning side has ended up with over the last 6 seasons is 86,16

14/15: 87
13/14: 86
12/13: 89
11/12: 89
10/11: 80
09/10: 86

83 points will probably not do it.
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Other versions I've seen have had the 'winner's expectation' to be drawing away against the top six rather than accepting the loss to them.

This would bring you up to 89, which gives you a lot more safety in predicting the winner but may be a bit harsh on some teams, like Tottenham would now be -1 instead of 0.
 
I've got a little bit of time for this concept but it's a very blunt instrument when incorporating ''win all your home games'' and ''don't worry about losing to all your rivals away'' if it's then supposed to balance out imbalances at any given point of the season., once things are underway and these fixture imbalances might be a factor. Two top teams playing - the away side wins is a 5-6point swing over one game - it doesn't work like that (quite). 3pts is still 3pts, Brian, at the end of the day, it's not 6 is it? And because it's possible to have a 5-6 point swing from a single game you have to have that as an allowance when you look at the table it produces.

With that in mind you might as well look at the real one.
 
montpelier said:
I've got a little bit of time for this concept but it's a very blunt instrument when incorporating ''win all your home games'' and ''don't worry about losing to all your rivals away'' if it's then supposed to balance out imbalances at any given point of the season., once things are underway and these fixture imbalances might be a factor. Two top teams playing - the away side wins is a 5-6point swing over one game - it doesn't work like that (quite). 3pts is still 3pts, Brian, at the end of the day, it's not 6 is it? And because it's possible to have a 5-6 point swing from a single game you have to have that as an allowance when you look at the table it produces.

With that in mind you might as well look at the real one.
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There are many ways to do it to be fair. Eboue used a decimal point system
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https://www.redcafe.net/threads/re-imagining-storeytime.367867/

I used "par" as home draws or away losses to the top teams

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https://www.redcafe.net/threads/storeytime-2013-14-re-edit.380550/

And we both did entire tables I think.

Dunno if Eboue kept his up but I didn't
 
@Damien I think we also have to consider one Middle 8 team a Bottom 6 team for other Bottom 6 teams (as well as considering Liverpool a Middle 8 side for all non-Top 6 teams). I didn't bother last year because I wasn't doing scores for teams that low down the table.

The way it is at the moment, both Top 6 and Middle 8 sides play 5 Top 6 teams, 8 Middle 8 teams and 6 Bottom 6 teams, but Bottom 6 teams play 5 Top 6 teams, 9 Middle 8 teams and 5 Bottom 6 teams, so their par over the course of the season is 2 points lower than the other 14 sides'.
 
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My head has just exploded from reading Eboue's analysis of 'achieved' v 'expected' pointage.

I think the problem here is that while fixtures can be anomalous, results can be even more anomalous, so creating a model that maintains its accuracy in actual play is definitely the tricky bit.
 
montpelier said:
My head has just exploded from reading Eboue's analysis of 'achieved' v 'expected' pointage.

I think the problem here is that while fixtures can be anomalous, results can be even more anomalous, so creating a model that maintains its accuracy in actual play is definitely the tricky bit.
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Well it's not expected to holdup exactly. It's supposed to tell you how well each team has done while taking fixture difficulty into account.
 
To picture the advantage of using this over the actual table sometimes, if there are 5 games left and Tottenham are 1 point ahead of United but have to play Chelsea, City and Arsenal away as well as Everton and Liverpool at home while United have home games against Leicester, Sunderaldn and West Ham and away trips to Bournemouth and Norwich, which of them is more likely to finish higher?
 
Eboue said:
Well it's not expected to holdup exactly. It's supposed to tell you how well each team has done while taking fixture difficulty into account.
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Yeah, I saw that. And then I saw Utd producing silly figures cos we were winning at Arsenal, Liverpool but losing to Burnley & Leicester. But the theory is nailed-on to be right, I don't dispute that at all.
 
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