Should we renew De Gea's contract?

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The percentile is when compared to all players in their position in the top five leagues, not just their own league. So even a player who isn't particularly noted as playing that way is still doing it far more often than De Gea.

No goalkeeper is going to single-handedly change our entire system (no single player in any position would), but it's as important as any others in moving towards that. Considering we have a player who is amongst the worst around in those attributes that contribute to being able to play a high line, it's one of the easiest upgrades we could make for those skills as literally well over 50% of all keepers out there (not just top keepers, but all keepers playing in the top 5 leagues) are better at it.

Link to that percentile? I checked fbref, and Navas is not even on Top 20 of Sweeper (Defensive action outside penalty area) for 2017/18 season
https://fbref.com/en/comps/Big5/2017-2018/keepersadv/players/2017-2018-Big-5-European-Leagues-Stats

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If it's easy, we shouldn't be chasing a 70m rated Gk.
 
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You need to ask ten Hag that question because it's reported he wants to keep DDG around due to his positive influence in dressing room. That then has the potential to create a stable environment and a good team spirit. I don't have a issue with that and as much as I've never really rated DDG as a goalkeeper but him being around could potentially help a new goalkeeper settle in quickly.
I wonder why Heaton isn't taken into consideration to do that positive influence role in the dressing room.
 
You need to ask ten Hag that question because it's reported he wants to keep DDG around due to his positive influence in dressing room. That then has the potential to create a stable environment and a good team spirit. I don't have a issue with that and as much as I've never really rated DDG as a goalkeeper but him being around could potentially help a new goalkeeper settle in quickly.
Do you believe De Gea would support the new keeper if they are going through a patch of bad form?
 
Do you believe De Gea would support the new keeper if they are going through a patch of bad form?

De Gea doesn't really give off a vibe that he's selfish and that he'd a problematic presence in the dressing room.

I just worry if we'll even sign a keeper that's got the ability to claim the #1 spot from De Gea.
 
De Gea doesn't really give off a vibe that he's selfish and that he'd a problematic presence in the dressing room.

I just worry if we'll even sign a keeper that's got the ability to claim the #1 spot from De Gea.
That's a very low bar, I'm certain we will.

As for your first point, if I remember correctly he wasn't too happy with Henderson playing.
 
Wanted to put this in a separate thread as a summary of exactly why replacing David de Gea should in fact be our no. 1 priority this summer. (Yes, a striker is crucial as well, but I'll get to that).
I'll just leave it here instead, and by chance it might spark some further debate -- going beyond "I want him to go because of his passing/I want him to stay because of his shot stopping or legendary status".

WHY AND HOW DE GEA IS OUR BIGGEST LIABILITY AND HINDRANCE TO EVOLVING OUR STYLE OF PLAY
De Gea is our biggest problem, and he has been for years.
De Gea's problem isn't the shot stopping, or the fact that he's prone to the occasional clanger.
Every single goalkeeper is prone to that, even the very best like Allison and Ederson.
The problem is much bigger than that.

He is the root of the entire issue of why we struggle to control games, and dominate possession. It all starts with him, and he gives away the ball all the time. We are without any chance to sustain control of the game against the better sides, when we have a goalkeeper who is unable to effectively recycle possession. It's like trying to play tennis with a smartphone.

De Gea will boot the ball into the opposition 9/10 times. Right there, we are losing an insane amount of possession.
And whenever we win it back, we hoof it to Rashford, who loses it frequently.
That's a hopeless tactic to sustain over a 38 game season, if we want to win the league.
It wastes too much energy, and sees us chasing the ball half the time, instead of controlling the game.

And that's without mentioning his complete lack of commanding the box and picking up dangerous crosses and high balls.
He is statistically and anecdotally one of the the biggest liability for chances against in all of Europe's top 5 leagues because of this and his lack of ability on the ball.
We have one of the very worst possible goalkeeper for a possession based football side.
And at the same time, he is the best paid goalkeeper of all time, ever.
It's a catastrophic combo.

Teams like City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Brighton all average 60-65 percent possession throughout the entire season.
This means they effectively control their games most of the time, while also minimizing chances against, and maximizing chances created.
You can not concede if you have control.
And, you can't score when you don't have the ball.

Not to mention how much energy we waste trying to constantly regain possession.
No wonder we're often tired in the second half.
The team who has the ball always uses less energy.

How do the best teams do this? Simple, really...
They have a goalkeeper and a back four who can play and pass off the press and are press resistant.

A lot of fans want us to challenge and improve de Gea, by bringing in a better no2.
But, if you think bringing in competition will significantly improve de Gea, you're missing the essential point.
Alas, it worked for Luke Shaw, some might say?

Yes, that worked because Shaw is inherently technically gifted and a great footballer with the ball in his feet, but is prone to motivational problems.

De Gea, on the other hand, lacks the technical and tactical acumen of a modern goalkeeper required to play possession based football.
No amount of "competition" can ever change that. In fact, at his age, no amount of coaching can significantly change that either.
When was the last time you saw a 30+ year old goalkeeper dramatically change his game? Hardly ever, if not never.

On top of all of this, sticking with de Gea means that we will continue to be:
1) Extremely susceptible to conceding chances and goals against on crosses and set pieces, because De Gea does not command his box.
He is scared and weak in aerial duels, and teams who cross are a constant threat.
We also lose so much possession by then having to clear the ball, because our keeper can't come out and claim it.
2) Weak and scared in 1v1.
He will never throw himself at the feet of attackers, to prevent them getting a shot off.
Instead, he will adapt this ludicrous hockey style stance by going down on one knee, effectively pinning him to the ground and becoming static, making him easy to score against.
3) Lacking in communication and directing his back line.
This spreads insecurity across the entire back line, and often leads to confusion.
A good keeper will always yell and show defenders where the best passing lanes are.

If you want him to stay, you clearly don't see why Ederson make City so dominant in possession, and why City are so dominant inside their own box, which then leads to them being dominant further up the pitch.
Yes, it's because their entire team is great in possession and press resistant. But without a solid backline and goalkeeper who also are just as good in possession, with passing, and being press resistant, it won't really matter that much if the midfield and attackers are.

The pro-De Gea agenda is mostly based on pure nostalgic love for his beautiful saves, and his time spent at the club.
Truth is, he is the exact same keeper he always was.
He has always had these weaknesses ever since he was at Atletico Madrid, and he will never change.
Even Spain's national team understand his glaring weaknesses will prevent them from playing modern football, and therefore he is not even considered good enough to be their third choice goalkeeper.
Add to all of this: He is the best paid goalkeeper in the history of football, and is a giant money sink for our club.
Even on his newly reduced wages at 200 000 GBP a week... Simply a terrible choice to want him to stay, in every conceivable way, including financially.

HOW REPLACING DE GEA WOULD DRASTICALLY IMPROVE OUR ATTACKING FOOTBALL, AND OVERALL PLAY
Replacing De Gea with a goalkeeper who can effectively recycle possession, means that we will have much more of the ball, which in turn means we can create more chances than if we don't have possession.
Then, you later add to that by replacing outfield players who are wasteful in possession, and finally add a quality striker.

Build from the back, and you will gain control of the games much faster. Always start by building from the back, and preferrably, with your goalkeeper and centre backs.

Build from the front, like many are suggesting, and we end up with a quality striker like Kane or Osimhen, who will then not even get the ball that much.
That's the exaxt same problem we've had with all of our strikers since after van Persie.
De Gea is by far our biggest problem and liability when it comes to controlling possession and dominating games, which eventually leads to chance creation and scoring.

De Gea boots the ball long so many times every game, that our midfield and attackers inevitably end up chasing the opponent.
It also adds to the problem of players getting tired and more injury prone, because of all the needless high energy running they have to do out of possession.

I'm not suggesting that simply replacing de Gea, whilst ignoring the need for better attacking players, will fix our issues of scoring goals. It won't.
But it would be the very first step to ensure that our attacking players actually have the chance to create more, by ensuring progression of possession -- from the back lines, to the front.

You can add prime Ronaldo, prime Kane, prime Henry, and prime Rashford to this team.
But without a solid baseline with a goalkeeper that acts as that extra ball playing defender to create overloads in our defense, we can't reach that dominance in games that teams like City, Liverpool and at times, Brighton, can.

So, it should be pretty obvious exactly why replacing de Gea should be our main priority.
It improves us not only defensively, but also offensively.
It improves our overall play, and makes us more dominant and possessive of the ball.
We will strengthen our ability to control games, all over the pitch.
Then, you add that final piece of the puzzle, the world class striker.
That striker's chance of actually getting the ball in good positions can only improve if we have more possession.
And replacing de Gea is the very first step to ensure we gain more possession.

THE PROBLEM WITH AFFORDING A WORLD CLASS GOALKEEPER
Allison and Ederson
are today recognized as two of the very best goalkeepers in the world -- deservedly and rightfully so.
When Liverpool and Manchester City bought them, hardly anyone had even heard of them outside of their respective clubs' fanbases.
They were not considered anywhere near world class, outside of some well hidden metrics that no one was looking at, except the most fervent of stat-heads and scouting departments.
Well played Liverpool and City, that's some grade A scouting right there.

Barring we find a way to bring in almost a limitless cash flow (Qatar... that's another debate), or we do a Chelsea and tapdance our way around those FFP regulations, we might have to prioritize either a striker, or a goalkeeper.
Seeing as strikers are both:
a) Much harder to come by
b) More expensive


...It would be very wise to spend the money on a striker first. It's a gaping hole that everyone can agree needs to be filled. Arguably, we even need two new strikers.

The next move would then be to either do a proper worldie in the scouting market to find a fantastic, yet cheap, goalkeeper, something that our scouts never, ever do.
Our scouts landed on Wan-Bissaka as the best right back in the world out of a list of 800 potential targets. How? They obviously only looked at defensive stats to determine the worth of a full back based on a single skill trait: His 1v1 defending stats. Absolutely shocking scouting.

So, I don't trust our scouting department yet, even if it's been replaced. Maybe they can earn our trust this summer, but I reserve the right to not believe so.
Unless we can afford someone like Diogo Costa, or someone of similiar attributes, we can't just buy our way to a new number 1 this summer.
Many fans want want David Raya, and while good and a step up from de Gea, his passing and composure does actually leave a bit to be desired.

A POSSIBLE (SHORT-TERM) SOLUTION
Many of our fans don't rate (hate that word) Dean Henderson.
It's clear that they didn't really watch him at Sheffield United, in his back-to-back seasons.
He was their key player in securing promotion to the Premier League.
The following season, he was their key player in Sheffield United staying up by a comfortable margin.
He played every match that season in the Premier League, except of course for the two fixtures against United.
At the end of the season, he was among the top goalkeepers in the league across a wide variety of important metrics, even challenging the likes of Allison and Ederson.

When he then got a chance to fight against de Gea under Ole, he was only remembered for a couple of blunders. And yes, those were not good.
But, in his 26 games that season, he comfortably outperformed de Gea on almost every single stat, and conceded less than de Gea.
The defense -- which wasn't great, to be fair -- looked much more reassured and convincing when he played.
He made a string of world class saves, commanded his box, played out from the back more than de Gea, and was deservedly in the pipeline to be the starter for next season... then Covid hit. And it hit him hard. He contracted Long Covid, which kept him out of training for months.
De Gea was now back in goal, as there were no other viable options. He continued to play like he always does: Making beautiful saves, but not developing his awful attributes in every other area.

Henderson was loaned out again, this time to newly promoted Nottingham Forest. Quite frankly, one of the worst newly promoted teams we've seen in the Premier League the last decade, with a ramshackle squad consisting of no less than 23(!) new signings.

He still went on to become their most important player, consistently giving 8/10 performances. His matches against Spurs and Liverpool rank especially high.

Of course, Forest under Cooper have flat out refused to play out from the back, so his stats will not reflect his abilities with his feet, as he is forced to boot it long almost every single time.
But he kept delivering, and was at the start of the season after 10 rounds, among the top performing goalkeepers in the league.

Then injury hit, and Navas was brought in as an emergency replacement. It was estimated he would be back in March/April, and Cooper even said he would then be their no1 again, despite Navas still being at the club.
Navas is not a bad keeper, and has had a fantastic career. He is very athletic and energetic. But he is not doing well in the Premier League. He initially made some cracking saves, which is his game. But he is not enough of a presence with his small stature, and limited horizontal and vertical reach.

Henderson has now undergone surgery, and is likely to be fit for the pre-season, or at least in August.
Spending nothing on a new keeper, while allocating funds to a striker and perhaps a midfielder, seems like the smarter move.
I'd give him the next season to prove his worth, and let him be the no1 choice throughout, without a sulking de Gea breathing down his neck.
For those who don't think Henderson can hack it, my bet is you'll be comfortably surprised.
Those who have actually followed his career, and regularly watched his game (not just clips on YouTube or MOTD), know how good he is.

THE NOT-SO-IMPORTANT ISSUES THAT PISS SOME FANS OFF, BUT REALLY SHOULDN'T MATTER

I can understand some fans having reservations based on rumours that he was one of the leaks in the dressing room.
Might I remind you that there have been actually no proof of this.
What we do know is that the team line-ups are still leaking this season, and it is surely not Henderson leaking that.
We can assume Pogba leaked like a sieve, at least according to his brother and agent, who frequently spoke of United's inner operations in the media.
The only definitive proof of leaks we have is that Lingard was definitely leaking, because Scholes effectively outed him live on BT Sports.

There have been a ton of rumours that Rashford was among those who leaked, with a powerful PR team behind him. Countless stories of Rashford being dissatisfied with managers emerged on a yearly basis, and eventually led to Ole having to apologize and rescind some comments he had made about Rashford's focus due to his charity work.

Again, these claims are unsubstantiated. But no one gives Rashford any grief for it. So let's give the same nod to Henderson, another one of our youth products that we should be proud of, and has never had any substantiated claims of leaking anything against him.

He is the first actual goalkeeper in many years who has come through our academy, and developed into a quality Premier League goalkeeper.

Some fans will also have a thorn in their side because of his interview.
I watched the interview back then and right now before writing this, and I saw nothing wrong with it. He is being honest, and calling out Ole as a man manager. I would be just as pissed and open about it if I was him, and I undoubtedly still love our club.
After all we've heard from other players and sources regarding Solskjaer's man management, I am inclined to believe this.

Not to mention, if half of our fanbase can look past Mason Greenwood's... ehm, issues.
Then surely the majority of our fanbase can see past an interview with an angry Henderson calling out Ole.
And if not, good riddance.
Good post. I've thought for a while that gk is probably our 2nd most important position to change. Most people here put it behind st, cm, rb and cd
 
He hasnt improved on his weaknesses enough this season to warrant a new contract imo.

If he's a starter next season I'm expecting more of the same
 
WHY AND HOW DE GEA IS OUR BIGGEST LIABILITY AND HINDRANCE TO EVOLVING OUR STYLE OF PLAY
De Gea is our biggest problem, and he has been for years.
De Gea's problem isn't the shot stopping, or the fact that he's prone to the occasional clanger.
Every single goalkeeper is prone to that, even the very best like Allison and Ederson.
The problem is much bigger than that.

He is the root of the entire issue of why we struggle to control games, and dominate possession. It all starts with him, and he gives away the ball all the time. We are without any chance to sustain control of the game against the better sides, when we have a goalkeeper who is unable to effectively recycle possession. It's like trying to play tennis with a smartphone.

De Gea will boot the ball into the opposition 9/10 times. Right there, we are losing an insane amount of possession.
And whenever we win it back, we hoof it to Rashford, who loses it frequently.
That's a hopeless tactic to sustain over a 38 game season, if we want to win the league.
It wastes too much energy, and sees us chasing the ball half the time, instead of controlling the game.

And that's without mentioning his complete lack of commanding the box and picking up dangerous crosses and high balls.
He is statistically and anecdotally one of the the biggest liability for chances against in all of Europe's top 5 leagues because of this and his lack of ability on the ball.
We have one of the very worst possible goalkeeper for a possession based football side.
And at the same time, he is the best paid goalkeeper of all time, ever.
It's a catastrophic combo.

Teams like City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Brighton all average 60-65 percent possession throughout the entire season.
This means they effectively control their games most of the time, while also minimizing chances against, and maximizing chances created.
You can not concede if you have control.
And, you can't score when you don't have the ball.

Not to mention how much energy we waste trying to constantly regain possession.
No wonder we're often tired in the second half.
The team who has the ball always uses less energy.

How do the best teams do this? Simple, really...
They have a goalkeeper and a back four who can play and pass off the press and are press resistant.

Great post! The ability to control games is the first problem I would imagine EtH would want to address. I think some of the reason we lack control in games is because EtH is willingly giving up control in order for us to counter-press. Our best period of form this season came when we did this really well. My hope is that EtH sees that we are struggling with DDG's distribution and is trying to weaponise it as much a he can, ultimately you cant polish a turd mind.

If we didn't have two strikers that have scored a combined 9 goals this season, a new ball playing keeper would be the top of the list in priorities for me.
 
This still doesn't make sense, the optimist in me thinks Ten Hag is too smart not to see how much of a liability he is, so all this praise and alleged commitment to keep him is perhaps because we're stuck with him until the end of the season so he's trying to preserve his morale. After all it doesn't make sense that we unsettle our only viable keeper during the final crucial games of the season by telling him he's unwanted or needs to accept a lesser role while courting other goalkeepers.

I'd expect (hope) we're just stalling until the very last game of the season, after which I'd expect us to either be brutally candid and send him on his way (unlikely), or tell him he's not going to be guaranteed first choice and to accept a significant paycut if he wants to stay. The fact the contract hasn't been officially signed is perhaps evidence thats whats happening.
 
Link to that percentile? I checked fbref, and Navas is not even on Top 20 of Sweeper (Defensive action outside penalty area) for 2017/18 season
https://fbref.com/en/comps/Big5/2017-2018/keepersadv/players/2017-2018-Big-5-European-Leagues-Stats

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If it's easy, we shouldn't be chasing a 70m rated Gk.
Navas only played 27 league games that season, so looking at the total amount of sweeping actions obvious disadvantages him compared to players who played all (or close to all) their games. When sorting by amount per 90 minutes he is 1.15 per match, which is 28th out of 110 keepers using your link (there's a 'Show hidden rows' option just below the table that shows all keepers). De Gea was 89th. In terms of average distance Navas was 15th while De Gea 76th.

I did notice he didn't actually play that much in 18/19 (only 10 league matches) so his even higher stats that season perhaps aren't completely accurate since they are from such a small sample size. Statistically he seems a bit all over the place in that regard with some seasons where he seems to sweep often and high and other seasons where he doesn't. Overall I wouldn't say he was great at it, but a fair bit better than De Gea. Looking at his replacement at Real, Courtois never used to sweep all that often when he first joined them (although still more than De Gea) but has been consistently sweeping more and more as each season passes so it's obviously something that they put some focus on.

If we just wanted somebody who was better at sweeping than De Gea then it could be done very cheap seeing as the vast majority of keepers are better at it, but there's a huge difference between 'better than De Gea' and 'one of the best around'. The same can largely be said about the keeper position in general. It's up to ETH and the management and scouting teams to get that balance right where they have to to decide on which keepers are available for what prices, and how much of our transfer kitty can go towards it. Are we able to pay big money now, or do we get a cheaper guy now that we perhaps upgrade further in a year or two (of course ideally that cheap keeper would step up and we wouldn't need to upgrade)? Personally I expect the latter is how we'll probably go, but we'll see.
 
Been one of his biggest fans throughout his time here.

This season has sealed his fate for me unfortunately. Let him go somewhere else where he can still do a job, especially for a lower team where he'll need to make saves.
 
De Gea was absolute class in that 17/18 season. It was his last great season. De Gea was actually the 4th best last season but with only +1.1 PSxG. Its not about places its about how many goals you prevent.

Yeah it was after returning from that World Cup in 2018 that things started to go downhill. Unfortunately I remember the spill against Chelsea in 2019 which cost us top 4 then there was the horror FA Cup Semi Final in 2020 as well to compound it.
 
This still doesn't make sense, the optimist in me thinks Ten Hag is too smart not to see how much of a liability he is, so all this praise and alleged commitment to keep him is perhaps because we're stuck with him until the end of the season so he's trying to preserve his morale. After all it doesn't make sense that we unsettle our only viable keeper during the final crucial games of the season by telling him he's unwanted or needs to accept a lesser role while courting other goalkeepers.

I'd expect (hope) we're just stalling until the very last game of the season, after which I'd expect us to either be brutally candid and send him on his way (unlikely), or tell him he's not going to be guaranteed first choice and to accept a significant paycut if he wants to stay. The fact the contract hasn't been officially signed is perhaps evidence thats whats happening.

Yeah I am hoping that's what is happening too
 
This still doesn't make sense, the optimist in me thinks Ten Hag is too smart not to see how much of a liability he is, so all this praise and alleged commitment to keep him is perhaps because we're stuck with him until the end of the season so he's trying to preserve his morale. After all it doesn't make sense that we unsettle our only viable keeper during the final crucial games of the season by telling him he's unwanted or needs to accept a lesser role while courting other goalkeepers.

I'd expect (hope) we're just stalling until the very last game of the season, after which I'd expect us to either be brutally candid and send him on his way (unlikely), or tell him he's not going to be guaranteed first choice and to accept a significant paycut if he wants to stay. The fact the contract hasn't been officially signed is perhaps evidence thats whats happening.
I really hope you are right. It is a tricky situation for ETH because he does need a motivated and committed De Gea through the end of this season.
 
On reflection I would tend to keep him unless an obvious upgrade comes along and we have more money than we know what to do with. He deserves the chance to prove he can evolve his game.
 
De Gea was absolute class in that 17/18 season. It was his last great season. De Gea was actually the 4th best last season but with only +1.1 PSxG. Its not about places its about how many goals you prevent.

To be fair, you are defining "absolute class" based solely on shot stopping/goal prevention.

These stats do not take into account how many of these chances were either a direct or indirect consequence of his inability to:

a) Pass through the press, instead of hoofing it long and giving away possession.
b) Maintain a high sweeping line, enabling our midfield and attacking lines to further maintain higher pressing and counter-pressing lines.
c) Command his box, and collecting high balls before an opposing player could gain possession, or alternatively finish or score.


No one is denying his ability to stop shots.
And there is no doubt that during the 17/18-season, he stopped shots like machine, with excellent PSxG.

But, it's still incredibly reductionist to call him a flat out "absolute class" goalkeeper, based on that stat alone, without taking into account the other parts of his game, that have been detrimental to our control of our game since he joined us from Atletico Madrid.

Even in his "best" seasons, he has still been a relatively poor:

1. Sweeper keeper.
2. High ball and cross collector.
3. Passing and ball handling keeper.

4. General commander of his box and back line.

So while most would agree that he was a fantastic shot stopper...
I am both anecdotally and factually inclined to strongly disagree that he was ever a "class" allround goalkeeper and footballer.

He just wasn't, isn't, or will ever be at his age.

Keepers like Neuer already revolutionized the role of a modern goalkeeper almost 20 years ago, leaving keepers like de Gea outdated, even before United signed him.
 
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On reflection I would tend to keep him unless an obvious upgrade comes along and we have more money than we know what to do with. He deserves the chance to prove he can evolve his game.

Think he's already proved he can't and maybe getting Sommer until we can bring in Costa should be the way forward
 
Think he's already proved he can't and maybe getting Sommer until we can bring in Costa should be the way forward

Well you can't prove a negative. But he's certainly got better at it this season, howlers notwithstanding. I mean sure if there's a magic money wand to replace him then by all means wave it. But if not then there are other things I would do first.
 
On reflection I would tend to keep him unless an obvious upgrade comes along and we have more money than we know what to do with. He deserves the chance to prove he can evolve his game.
Its not hard to find an upgrade considering the data shows pretty much every keeper in the league is more effective than him. We don't even need a Maignan or Costa type signing, even a David Raya type would be a huge upgrade for us.

As for chances - he's been here for well over a decade. He's not suddenly going to morph into the the commanding, ball-playing keeper we desperately need him to be, nor do we have the luxury of giving him more time as we continue to compromise over playing how the manager wants us to play.
 
On reflection I would tend to keep him unless an obvious upgrade comes along and we have more money than we know what to do with. He deserves the chance to prove he can evolve his game.

He has been here 13 years and still can't command his box. Its obvious that he is not willing to learn or he is just not capable. After sevilla, he is just hoofing the ball. And he is still bad there. He is 32 too. You can expect him to learn things that he avoided to learn when he was younger. Even if he does rapidly improve, he will still be miles away from being a good gk for the highest level. Even Fabianski is a better gk than him now.
 
As for chances - he's been here for well over a decade. He's not suddenly going to morph into the the commanding, ball-playing keeper we desperately need him to be
Has he been asked to or trained to before now?
 
Has he been asked to or trained to before now?
Do you know that he hasn't? He might not even be capable of it. By the same logic why don't we keep Maguire and just train him to become a rapid, ball-playing CB with exceptional positioning and awareness?
 
Yeah it was after returning from that World Cup in 2018 that things started to go downhill. Unfortunately I remember the spill against Chelsea in 2019 which cost us top 4 then there was the horror FA Cup Semi Final in 2020 as well to compound it.
Yes up to that point he was one of the great goalkeepers in the world. The flaws about him not playing with his feet nor coming out for crosses were there but his shot stopping ability was incredible. I think that huge mistake in the world cup in the Spain vs Portugal match where he lets in an easy shot from Cristiano was when it all started. Its like since that moment something clicked in his head and the errors just kept coming. He has never recovered ever since.
 
The rest of your post regards data science applies to other clubs as well. Liverpool's data scientist who was and still is at the club is from the USA. Will Spearman wasn't even someone who watched football (soccer) but was given the role and he was guided by people like Barry Hunter who was the Chief Scout. Ajax have Vosse de Boode who is their head of data analytics and she admits she knows nothing about the game and is guided by people like Henk Veldmate (head of scouting). I've mentioned this to you before.

And Dominic Jordan only took up his role at the club in March 2022. And the likes of Wan Bissaka weren't signed in 2019, due to the club having a data science strategy. That strategy is only in it's infancy. And the 800 fullbacks were pulled from a data base of players and not due to any data analytics that was applied. Because their wasn't a data science strategy active on the football side of the club.

Knowing the game or being from Europe is not the bar for me, it's the quality of information coming out in public forums. For instance a PhD modeling animal herd behavior is relevant to football data science (David Sumpter of soccermatics is one of my favorite resources there). Jordan does not have any of these, his CV reads like some random C-suite exec who builds data science teams, not a PhD who does new academic research.

The whole of the statsbomb folks got their starts because Chelsea hosted conferences on data science in football and a bunch of models like xT, OBV etc. were developed there. Man City was collaborating with Google I believe on developing a totally virtual model of football to innovate on tactics. Liverpool had this whole idea with virtual assistant managers that can provide in-game recommendations. Barca likewise had pretty interesting models come out from their previous head of data science.

We have ... nothing in this space. None of the above are related to scouting / recruitment but it tells you about the sophistication of the data science operations.
 
Do you know that he hasn't? He might not even be capable of it. By the same logic why don't we keep Maguire and just train him to become a rapid, ball-playing CB with exceptional positioning and awareness?

I appreciate the validity of the point you are making but it's not quite the same. Ole and his predecessors never asked or trained DdG to play this way whereas Maguire has been aiming for that all his career. DdG may not be able to do it either but it's still possible - albeit more unlikely than likely.

This time last year I would have written AWB as unable to attack. Training can do a lot.
 
has there been any word on what the terms might be? If the base salary is something crazy low that would be fine, but anything remotely high and im ready to fully move on.
 
I kind of wish Sergio Romero was still our backup keeper. He wasn't the most talented. But, he could handle the pressure and was good in knock-out competitions.

He was excellent value for money and in many ways better than our No.1. I never felt uncomfortable having him in goal.

Cant remember what De Gea's wages were at that time but it must have been like 250k. Romeros was at like 80k iirc. I would have gave him 120-140k and the number 1 spot and let De Gea go instead of giving him 375k a week. The drop off in quality in shot stopping was there but not so big that it was concerning while Romero was better in other aspects of the game to even it out. Not only do you save directly in wages but you also lower the expectations of incoming future players. Imaging coming into the club knowing very well the goal keeper earns 375k a week?! You are gonna ask for a lot of money. It does set a bad presedent.

One of the most baffling things we have done as a club in recent years is the handling of Romero. I still do not understand why we created an issue out of exactly nothing, since Romero as a backup was not an issue whatsoever.
 
ifightdragons has nailed it. I really hope we aren't still trying to 'protect value' by giving new deals! If that's the case then we've learned nothing.
 
Navas only played 27 league games that season, so looking at the total amount of sweeping actions obvious disadvantages him compared to players who played all (or close to all) their games. When sorting by amount per 90 minutes he is 1.15 per match, which is 28th out of 110 keepers using your link (there's a 'Show hidden rows' option just below the table that shows all keepers). De Gea was 89th. In terms of average distance Navas was 15th while De Gea 76th.

I did notice he didn't actually play that much in 18/19 (only 10 league matches) so his even higher stats that season perhaps aren't completely accurate since they are from such a small sample size. Statistically he seems a bit all over the place in that regard with some seasons where he seems to sweep often and high and other seasons where he doesn't. Overall I wouldn't say he was great at it, but a fair bit better than De Gea. Looking at his replacement at Real, Courtois never used to sweep all that often when he first joined them (although still more than De Gea) but has been consistently sweeping more and more as each season passes so it's obviously something that they put some focus on.

If we just wanted somebody who was better at sweeping than De Gea then it could be done very cheap seeing as the vast majority of keepers are better at it, but there's a huge difference between 'better than De Gea' and 'one of the best around'. The same can largely be said about the keeper position in general. It's up to ETH and the management and scouting teams to get that balance right where they have to to decide on which keepers are available for what prices, and how much of our transfer kitty can go towards it. Are we able to pay big money now, or do we get a cheaper guy now that we perhaps upgrade further in a year or two (of course ideally that cheap keeper would step up and we wouldn't need to upgrade)? Personally I expect the latter is how we'll probably go, but we'll see.

Fair enough. While this season, Ramsdale is on 50th and DDG on 68th.

Anyway, I don't have anything more to add.
 
Knowing the game or being from Europe is not the bar for me, it's the quality of information coming out in public forums. For instance a PhD modeling animal herd behavior is relevant to football data science (David Sumpter of soccermatics is one of my favorite resources there). Jordan does not have any of these, his CV reads like some random C-suite exec who builds data science teams, not a PhD who does new academic research.

The whole of the statsbomb folks got their starts because Chelsea hosted conferences on data science in football and a bunch of models like xT, OBV etc. were developed there. Man City was collaborating with Google I believe on developing a totally virtual model of football to innovate on tactics. Liverpool had this whole idea with virtual assistant managers that can provide in-game recommendations. Barca likewise had pretty interesting models come out from their previous head of data science.

We have ... nothing in this space. None of the above are related to scouting / recruitment but it tells you about the sophistication of the data science operations.
That's fair enough but you have to remember that Dominic Jordan is someone who creates teams of data scientists to dominate the data/analytics space. And being patient and allowing him to put a team together, which is football centric, will allow us to better assess or discuss the merits of the individuals who will make up the department in question. And it's not important to have a football background or be from Europe, I agree. But it's very important to understand what you're applying data towards when it comes to football, or you end up going down the rabbit hole.

Jordan has been working with specialist firms like 'data idol' who specialise in identifying the best in class data scientists for the field in question. And that has so far resulted in Alex Kleyn being confirmed to join us next season. And from reading about his (Alex Kleyn) background, his role on the football side was one where he utilised data to help the coaching staff at youth levels, align the playing style with the first team, to both help the first team head coach and the young hopefuls stepping up from the youth/reserves.

https://trainingground.guru/article...s-they-bid-to-become-‘dominant’-in-data-science

You've also mentioned City, Liverpool and Barcelona but what you haven't mentioned is that their clubs have had a clear and defined way of playing the game, which likely helps when it comes to interpreting data. Because if you look at Liverpool's data science team from when they started in 2012 to when Klopp arrived, they made a lot of mistakes and the 'Graham model' as it was known, deemed Sadio Mane not good enough in 2014, per reports. And it took them 5 years to stabilise their football structure when the head coach Klopp arrived and the manager Rodgers departed, which aligned their football structure and made the work of the data science and scouting teams more effective. And then when you have a strong foundation to work with, where your work is now Jurgen Klopp, football centric, then things evolve and trends are developed due to the whole process on the football side of the club being aligned with all the football departments working in tandem.

But our issue in the last 10 years hasn't been due to not having a data science strategy but rather we didn't utilise the work of our scouts and instead allowed the last two managers to work with their personal scouts and our setup wasn't aligned. And when the football departments are not aligned with the manager at the club, you fail to take advantage of a big group of people who make up the recruitment department.

Data should back up the eye test and help filter through the clutter, so the eyes of the talent spotters can effectively be utilised in the regions the data points out. And data isn't only used for scouting/recruitment but also to help with improving performance at the club, which again is there to help football people make better decisions.
 
Do you believe De Gea would support the new keeper if they are going through a patch of bad form?
I think DDG has probably accepted that he isn't going to be #1 if the reports of his contract being one where the bonuses are centred around him starting games. And if we do bring in someone like Bart Verbruggen, who is still only 20, then I'm hoping DDG will help him settle into his new surroundings. Because a young keeper like Bart Verbruggen will make mistakes and the hope has to be that a senior player like DDG, will make the transition a little easier for Bart Verbruggen.
 
Yes up to that point he was one of the great goalkeepers in the world. The flaws about him not playing with his feet nor coming out for crosses were there but his shot stopping ability was incredible. I think that huge mistake in the world cup in the Spain vs Portugal match where he lets in an easy shot from Cristiano was when it all started. Its like since that moment something clicked in his head and the errors just kept coming. He has never recovered ever since.

Yeah he was definitely affected by the mistake in that game,unfortunately for him it was around that time when Alisson & Ederson emerged with that modern style of goalkeeping
 
Yeah he was definitely affected by the mistake in that game,unfortunately for him it was around that time when Alisson & Ederson emerged with that modern style of goalkeeping

He's like an old gas boiler than you really need to change to a heat pump but there's never a right time.
 
He was excellent value for money and in many ways better than our No.1. I never felt uncomfortable having him in goal.

Cant remember what De Gea's wages were at that time but it must have been like 250k. Romeros was at like 80k iirc. I would have gave him 120-140k and the number 1 spot and let De Gea go instead of giving him 375k a week. The drop off in quality in shot stopping was there but not so big that it was concerning while Romero was better in other aspects of the game to even it out. Not only do you save directly in wages but you also lower the expectations of incoming future players. Imaging coming into the club knowing very well the goal keeper earns 375k a week?! You are gonna ask for a lot of money. It does set a bad presedent.
I’d be more than happy if we could sign someone of Romero’s quality to be our number one next season (and the foreseeable future). But there seems to be a belief that we can only replace DDG with an absolute world beater - which kind of overlooks the fact that Dave hasn’t been a world beater himself in years.
 
De gea is the best possible keeper we can have for the foreseeable.

people need forget this bad with feet stuff. A goalkeepers first job is keeping the ball out the net, there are very few better.

De gea for the last 9 years has had the worst of worst defended in front of him. Very rarely had a settled back four. Even this season varane or Martinez have had their injury problems. For a man United goalkeeper he is major over worked. De Gea is facing more shots in a game than big ed or schmeichel would face over a month of football. If your facing that many attacks eventually your gonna make mistakes it’s enevitable.

Schmeichel to me the greatest keeper I’ve ever seen was fond of the odd mad howler slicing a clearance or two and rush’s of blood to the head but he is maybe only facing 2/3 shots a game so mistakes seem few and far between.

De gea has saved us alot more than cost us and will continue to do so.

we shouldn’t be playing short from the back anyway cause it just invites trouble and we aren’t good enough to do it.
 
De gea is the best possible keeper we can have for the foreseeable.

people need forget this bad with feet stuff. A goalkeepers first job is keeping the ball out the net, there are very few better.

De gea for the last 9 years has had the worst of worst defended in front of him. Very rarely had a settled back four. Even this season varane or Martinez have had their injury problems. For a man United goalkeeper he is major over worked. De Gea is facing more shots in a game than big ed or schmeichel would face over a month of football. If your facing that many attacks eventually your gonna make mistakes it’s enevitable.

Schmeichel to me the greatest keeper I’ve ever seen was fond of the odd mad howler slicing a clearance or two and rush’s of blood to the head but he is maybe only facing 2/3 shots a game so mistakes seem few and far between.

De gea has saved us alot more than cost us and will continue to do so.

we shouldn’t be playing short from the back anyway cause it just invites trouble and we aren’t good enough to do it.
These days, teams will do high press. We won’t be able to retain possession agains teams that play high press because de Gea will just kick the ball long and that becomes 50:50 turns over (De Zerbi calls it gambling). That’s why we have been struggling in away matches because opposition teams tend to play high press and press DDG, which forced him to play long and we couldn’t have control of the game. De Gea giving the ball away in this way is equivalent to us conceded shots and potentially goals.
 
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