Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
A certain "highly qualified intellectual independent analyst" that a caf mod used to link to all the time, suggested the other day that the Kherson retreat is part of a deal struck as part of negotiations between the US and Russia
It made me think of this TV show, I think he's auditioning for a part on it.
Artillery, Anti tank missiles, Anti aircraft missiles..
Currently there seem to be developments in two areas.
More solid are reports about a Ukrainian assault on the Svatove/Kreminna front line (continuation of the Izyum/Lyman operations). It looks like that front might collapse soon (rather days than weeks), Russian telegram channels already reached the "Don't panic" stage in their reporting about that area.
Much more doubtful are reports from the Kherson area.
It seems reasonable to assume that Ukraine took Kinburn peninsula by an amphibious assault (the left green circle), which is a difficult area for heavy equipment. But there are some reports that they moved quite a long way to the east and took villages there (the smaller green circles). If that should be true (which I doubt) it would mean that they already took a huge part of the left bank of the river, just days after the huge Russian retreat happened exactly there. Where are the Russians? Why should a small amphibious assault unit be able to perform such a large operation? At the moment I believe this to be just rumours and wishful thinking.
More solid are reports about a Ukrainian assault on the Svatove/Kreminna front line (continuation of the Izyum/Lyman operations). It looks like that front might collapse soon (rather days than weeks), Russian telegram channels already reached the "Don't panic" stage in their reporting about that area.
Much more doubtful are reports from the Kherson area.
Could they be just totally unprepared for any activity across the Dnipro river? They have been retreating their forces from the right bank for the past few weeks and diverting them to other fronts right away believing that Dnipro would serve us natural defensive barrier leaving the left bank wide open? I’m not sure how would that work logistically speaking but hey their command must have been planning this for a long time as they likely knew about the eventual retreat for months now.Currently there seem to be developments in two areas.
More solid are reports about a Ukrainian assault on the Svatove/Kreminna front line (continuation of the Izyum/Lyman operations). It looks like that front might collapse soon (rather days than weeks), Russian telegram channels already reached the "Don't panic" stage in their reporting about that area.
Much more doubtful are reports from the Kherson area.
It seems reasonable to assume that Ukraine took Kinburn peninsula by an amphibious assault (the left green circle), which is a difficult area for heavy equipment. But there are some reports that they moved quite a long way to the east and took villages there (the smaller green circles). If that should be true (which I doubt) it would mean that they already took a huge part of the left bank of the river, just days after the huge Russian retreat happened exactly there. Where are the Russians? Why should a small amphibious assault unit be able to perform such a large operation? At the moment I believe this to be just rumours and wishful thinking.
Basically one badass Ukranian soldier scaring a dozen of Russians off to nowhere. Hats off to that guy.
Yes that sounds like the only reasonable explanation if it should be true. But it would be truly amazing as realistically the numbers in that area are somwhere between 10:1 and 100:1 in Russias favour, and only Russia would have heavy equipment on that side. As I have no reports from Ukrainian sources about such a large scale movement (only reports about Kinburn itself) I tend to believe that they "only" took Kinburn and then executed some well orchestrated artillery strikes on the left bank to create the illusion of an advancing force to cause chaos and confusion, basically a PsyOps barrage to increase the effect of the actual SpecOps.
Whilst we want that to be the case, I feel that Russia will pay nothing when it’s all said and done.
Are billions of their funds seized around the world? Maybe that can be used to pay whatever is decided
No they won't pay willingly but $300 Billion of their reserves are frozen in the Western banking system. With them unable to access, there's been talk and explorations for months on the legality of confiscating it and giving it to Ukraine as reparations.
And it seemed like he survived! He ran very close to them.
Most Russians there probably were holding (fake) weapons without ammunition as we have heard a lot.
I'm going with the guess that these are untrained cannon fodder pushed to the front lines
Currently there seem to be developments in two areas.
More solid are reports about a Ukrainian assault on the Svatove/Kreminna front line (continuation of the Izyum/Lyman operations). It looks like that front might collapse soon (rather days than weeks), Russian telegram channels already reached the "Don't panic" stage in their reporting about that area.
Much more doubtful are reports from the Kherson area.
It seems reasonable to assume that Ukraine took Kinburn peninsula by an amphibious assault (the left green circle), which is a difficult area for heavy equipment. But there are some reports that they moved quite a long way to the east and took villages there (the smaller green circles). If that should be true (which I doubt) it would mean that they already took a huge part of the left bank of the river, just days after the huge Russian retreat happened exactly there. Where are the Russians? Why should a small amphibious assault unit be able to perform such a large operation? At the moment I believe this to be just rumours and wishful thinking.
If true, perhaps Russia aren't putting any of their elite troops or equipment anywhere near the front lines where HIMARs can strike. Perhaps they thought they'd guard it with only cannon fodder. Essentially any push forward will be made with the Ukrainians knowing who and what is their to defend the regained territory.
I still don't truely understand how they plan on defending it though. How do they get heavy equipment to that locaion?
It depends if legally Russian foreign assets can be diverted to Ukraine or not. If Oligarch assets could be diverted to Ukraine, that would be pretty big and effective.
The Russians have zero appetite for this war, makes situations like this almost inevitable.
Mark Hertling some months ago said, for an army to be successful, the soldiers must have a sense of purpose, right or wrong. You can't have soldiers thinking why the feck they are there.
Aye, even in Vietnam there was some great constant brain washing of good vs. commies, but ultimately even that wasn’t enough.
Doesn’t feel like Putin has managed the propaganda campaign even remotely well enough to convince these Russians that it’s a war worth fighting.
Also clear objectives are important, what exactly are the aims of Russian commanders as it stands they couldn’t tell you themselves let alone convey those with any sense of purpose to those on the frontlines.
Is scary out there!
You're not wrong, the way that mad bastard leading the charge spins round frantically trying to find the grenade just thrown at him, before jumping out the way just in time
Absolute Cajones on that guy.Sacked in the morning!
You're getting sacked in the morning!
Sacked in the morning!
You're getting sacked in the morning!
Air sirens all over Ukraine, a massive barrage of missiles expected from the sea.
Apparently again only from the Caspian Sea. Looks like the Black Sea Fleet is still out of action, the last attack on Sevastopol appears like a massive strategic success.
Some at least are reaching targets :/ residential buildings in Kyiv hit, power station in Mykolaiv.
Didn't realize there was one.
Some of these guys sound like a Russian theatre group version of Dr. Strangelove.
"Mr. President, we must not allow a toilet bowl gap!"
Explosions in Lviv as well. Felt really close…