Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Shit is moving fast in Kherson oblast. The entire northeastern front seems to have collapsed today.

Davydiv Brid, Velkya Oleksandrivka, Starosilia liberated.

 
2cents said:
Seems to be reports of major advances on multiple fronts coming through now every few hours or so. At what point will the Russian collapse stop?
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It won’t stop, their professional army (especially officers and commanders) has been almost completely wiped out together with the most capable locals from Donetsk/Luhansk, they can send thousands of mobilized into a meat grinder but those will panic and run at the first sight of the Ukrainian forces with no competent commanders to organize them. It’s just a matter of time now until Ukraine pushes out occupiers completely.
 
rpitchfo said:
Let’s move on,

whats the latest in kherson
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63126156

Essentially pro-Kremlin sources are reporting that Ukraine has indeed pushed Russia back. There’s very little official comms from the Ukrainian side and journalists are being kept away, which says to me that they’re making serious progress but don’t want to give away free intel.
 
JuriM said:
What do you consider more dangerous atm? I am seeing it from some people from Western Europe or the USA to continue to say that - but after the siege of Mariupol what is more catastrophic? (consider the huge losses of life in the public population there, the massive deportations from the region, and the massive destruction of the area)

Because I know what the discourse has been in our Estonian media throughout the war and what is discourse in other Baltic states, Poland, etc. And none of them are ever been afraid or been getting more afraid of some kind of "new" escalation the whole mobilization wasn't anything we weren't ready for, nor Ukraine itself - they have been considering that card since the first weeks of the war already - same goes with the Nuclear strike possibility.

The months of war have shown us that there is nothing to be afraid of, but to continue our everyday work and support towards the lines and push Russia back to the dark ages, literally.
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Mind, I share your perspective in full. The danger is a local war slowly escalating toward a global war.
 
Bepi said:
Mind, I share your perspective in full. The danger is a local war slowly escalating toward a global war.
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Yea it's not something to be afraid of.



You don't negotiate of be vary of terrorists, you stick together and act as needed to defeat them.
 
Russian sources are reporting that the whole northern front west of Dnepr is retreating.
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Bear in mind that Russian best remaining troops probably haven’t been rotated at all, thus further degrading their effectiveness.
 


According to Girkin russian forces are running to Beryslav to try and establish a new defensive line around that area.
 
This reminds me of operation Storm in Croatian homeland war. Only difference that we had that operation of liberating occupied parts of the country 4 years after it got occupied and Ukrainians are doing it after 7 months. There are a lot of other parallels with that war in which I wont go into here.
 
the hea said:
About 100km I would say. Nova Kakhovka is half way to Kherson City and should be a major goal for the Ukrainians as it has been a major logistics hub for equipment and supplies crossing the Dnepr.
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If they continue like this liberation of Kherson wont be far away?
 
How far could the Ukrainians realistically push Russia before winter sets in/new recruits are deployed? They surely can't keep up at this rate (although long may it continue) - geographic hurdles will surely end up causing as much restriction if nothing else will.
 
JuriM said:
Yea it's not something to be afraid of.



You don't negotiate of be vary of terrorists, you stick together and act as needed to defeat them.
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Multiple conventional fronts are not sustainable for the West and therefore this conflict should be frozen sooner than later, without providing Putin any more opportunities to try and ignite Azerbaijan two weeks ago, gas pipes last week, North Korea this week, the Balkans the next one… It is Kissinger’s say and I do not think he is scared of or willing to appease a terrorist?

Musk is not Einstein, he is just envisaging the bleeding edge of circumstances, as usual, for the benefit of his own ventures: economies of war are less profitable than high-level, global trolling and gaslighting. It is a threat to cut support, as well, because it is not unlimited: Western economies are heading toward a recession, inflation is exploding, etc. etc.
 
Bepi said:
Multiple conventional fronts are not sustainable for the West and therefore this conflict should be frozen sooner than later, without providing Putin any more opportunities to try and ignite Azerbaijan two weeks ago, gas pipes last week, North Korea this week, the Balkans the next one… It is Kissinger’s say and I do not think he is scared of or willing to appease a terrorist?

Musk is not Einstein, he is just envisaging the bleeding edge of circumstances, as usual, for the benefit of his own ventures: economies of war are less profitable than high-level, global trolling and gaslighting. It is a threat to cut support, as well, because it is not unlimited: Western economies are heading toward a recession, inflation is exploding, etc. etc.
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What does North Korea have to do with Putin? You are giving him way too much credit.

EDIT: Also Azerbaijan? You think Putin is responsible for that?
 
Bepi said:
Multiple conventional fronts are not sustainable for the West and therefore this conflict should be frozen sooner than later, without providing Putin any more opportunities to try and ignite Azerbaijan two weeks ago, gas pipes last week, North Korea this week, the Balkans the next one… It is Kissinger’s say and I do not think he is scared of or willing to appease a terrorist?

Musk is not Einstein, he is just envisaging the bleeding edge of circumstances, as usual, for the benefit of his own ventures: economies of war are less profitable than high-level, global trolling and gaslighting. It is a threat to cut support, as well, because it is not unlimited: Western economies are heading toward a recession, inflation is exploding, etc. etc.
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How does appeasement to Putin solve those issues in the short-mid term? Did it post 2014? You know, the bill tends to only get higher.
 
The Firestarter said:
Also Azerbaijan? You think Putin is responsible for that?
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Not directly, but yes. The fact that Russian peacekeeping troops left Armenia to fight in Ukraine opened the door for Azerbaijan.

However this is definitely not what Putin wanted as it essentially killed the CSTO.
 
Bepi said:
Multiple conventional fronts are not sustainable for the West and therefore this conflict should be frozen sooner than later, without providing Putin any more opportunities to try and ignite Azerbaijan two weeks ago, gas pipes last week, North Korea this week, the Balkans the next one… It is Kissinger’s say and I do not think he is scared of or willing to appease a terrorist?

Musk is not Einstein, he is just envisaging the bleeding edge of circumstances, as usual, for the benefit of his own ventures: economies of war are less profitable than high-level, global trolling and gaslighting. It is a threat to cut support, as well, because it is not unlimited: Western economies are heading toward a recession, inflation is exploding, etc. etc.
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They are sustainable indefinitely if the US and EU/NATO are backing the effort. The Russians are far more likely to run out of equipment and resources more quickly, which is built into the western strategy of gradually eroding Putin and his resources down to nothing, and in the process allowing Russians to deal with him from within instead of the West having to deal with him through a shooting war.
 
Bepi said:
Multiple conventional fronts are not sustainable for the West and therefore this conflict should be frozen sooner than later, without providing Putin any more opportunities to try and ignite Azerbaijan two weeks ago, gas pipes last week, North Korea this week, the Balkans the next one… It is Kissinger’s say and I do not think he is scared of or willing to appease a terrorist?

Musk is not Einstein, he is just envisaging the bleeding edge of circumstances, as usual, for the benefit of his own ventures: economies of war are less profitable than high-level, global trolling and gaslighting. It is a threat to cut support, as well, because it is not unlimited: Western economies are heading toward a recession, inflation is exploding, etc. etc.
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Re: Musk, its never worth engaging with trolls. Zelensky's reply was spot on.

His talking point though, by all means have at it, although its been done to death already in this thread. Its a Russian propaganda narritive that they were always going to push as soon as they knew they'd gone as far as they could in Ukraine, now its reaching levels of desperation. A ceasefire is Putin's only possible semi-positive way out of this.

They have two main ideas to push calls for peace, threat of nukes and threat of freezing Europe through energy costs. They need as many voices in the west as possible to have any remote chance of it. Don't be surprised when the next controvertial dickhead starts spouting the same rubbish.
 
Bepi said:
Multiple conventional fronts are not sustainable for the West and therefore this conflict should be frozen sooner than later, without providing Putin any more opportunities to try and ignite Azerbaijan two weeks ago, gas pipes last week, North Korea this week, the Balkans the next one… It is Kissinger’s say and I do not think he is scared of or willing to appease a terrorist?

Musk is not Einstein, he is just envisaging the bleeding edge of circumstances, as usual, for the benefit of his own ventures: economies of war are less profitable than high-level, global trolling and gaslighting. It is a threat to cut support, as well, because it is not unlimited: Western economies are heading toward a recession, inflation is exploding, etc. etc.
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This conflict should be won, not frozen.
 
groovyalbert said:
How far could the Ukrainians realistically push Russia before winter sets in/new recruits are deployed? They surely can't keep up at this rate (although long may it continue) - geographic hurdles will surely end up causing as much restriction if nothing else will.
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If I had to gauge the opinions of usually ’okay’ twitter sources, the Kherson advance would soon slow due to natural reasons and it having the most built-up defenses outside of the post 2014 occupied areas. But some on the Russian side are worried about a ‘left hook’ in the Zaporizhzia area towards Melitopol before too long after this right jab.
 
groovyalbert said:
How far could the Ukrainians realistically push Russia before winter sets in/new recruits are deployed? They surely can't keep up at this rate (although long may it continue) - geographic hurdles will surely end up causing as much restriction if nothing else will.
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Which geographical hurdles are those? Rivers? It’s pretty flat and open in eastern Ukraine as I understand it.

One Ukraine military leader said that progress would be mostly halted by winter.
 
Real Name said:
If they continue like this liberation of Kherson wont be far away?
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I believe I read it’s the most enforced city outside of the eastern area Russia held before the war. It will likely take significantly longer than the rapid advances in the north, at best.
 
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