Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Not to worry as they have allegedly have millions of troops who haven't yet been used as cannon fodder.

 
Why on Earth would a major general fly in risky areas (although if I am not mistaken, MG is just one star general in Russian military, unlike in the US when they hold two stars)?
He wasn’t “retired”, he was dismissed without honors after crashing a plane he didn’t even have a required expertise to fly on in an attempt to perform some showboating trick.

So, most likely, he was recruited by some private military company like Wagner, although, as you can imagine, there’s not a lot of information open to the public.
 
He wasn’t “retired”, he was dismissed without honors after crashing a plane he didn’t even have a required expertise to fly on in an attempt to perform some showboating trick.

So, most likely, he was recruited by some private military company like Wagner, although, as you can imagine, there’s not a lot of information open to the public.

Maybe somebody should recommend them Francesco Schettino as the captain of their new blacksea flagship.
 
He wasn’t “retired”, he was dismissed without honors after crashing a plane he didn’t even have a required expertise to fly on in an attempt to perform some showboating trick.

So, most likely, he was recruited by some private military company like Wagner, although, as you can imagine, there’s not a lot of information open to the public.
Was not aware contractors had jets.
 
Was not aware contractors had jets.
You have to understand that they’re very much intertwined with the Army (and Putin’s elite). In the BBC podcast that discussed this general they’ve talked about it as well, apparently they have an option to “lease” them.
 

If anyone has means to chip in feel free. Since the morning we have collected 1 MEUR out of the 5 MEUR necessary to buy a Bayraktar for Ukraine. Lithuanian and Turkish defense ministries together with manufacturer have green lighted it. Paypal money guarantee is available. :)
 
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You have to understand that they’re very much intertwined with the Army (and Putin’s elite). In the BBC podcast that discussed this general they’ve talked about it as well, apparently they have an option to “lease” them.

So, if Ukraine hires some western private company like Blackwater, and they "lease" a few dozen F-35 aircraft for operation inside Ukraine, will that be something similar?
 
So, if Ukraine hires some western private company like Blackwater, and they "lease" a few dozen F-35 aircraft for operation inside Ukraine, will that be something similar?
I’m not sure. Wagner is essentially just another part of Putin’s enormous and complicated enforcer apparatus — they aren’t much different than the army itself but they’re more experienced, they get paid better and you can claim that any of their involvement in different conflicts abroad (like in CAR or in Syria) has nothing to do with Russia. Which is why they can, although I’m sure that it’s not done through legit sources, “lease” Russian planes and vehicles, use military airports etc.

When U.S. hires Blackwater I’d imagine that it somewhat similar, although, from the very little that I understand, Blackwater would probably have more autonomy. If Ukraine hires an outside military company they’re hiring someone who’s completely independent from them.
 
The BBC reports:

"The Russian parliament has passed a law raising the age limit for people signing up to the army to 50.

It follows ongoing attempts by Russian officials to recruit more soldiers as Russian casualties in Ukraine mount.

Under current legislation, only Russians aged 18 to 40 and foreigners aged 18 to 30 can enlist as professional soldiers in the Russian military.
“Highly professional specialists are needed to use high-precision weapons and operate weapons and military equipment” and such specialists may be aged 40 to 45, said a note accompanying the draft bill.

According to the new law Russian citizens and foreigners up to the age of 50 will be able to sign a contract with the military.
The note said the amendment would also help attract those in civilian professions to join the army, including medics, engineers and communications experts.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defence and the so-called Wagner private military company have launched a vast and persistent campaign to recruit new soldiers both officially and unofficially.

Based on open sources, BBC Russian has identified at least 46 Russians aged over 45 who have been killed in Ukraine after the start of the invasion. This includes a 63-year-old retired general, who was shot down operating a Su-25 fighter jet."
 
I heard that partisan warfare has already begun. Russians may gain some territory and right now it seems they're making some tactical advances in Donbas but keeping the occupied territory will be a new problem in itself.
 
The news coming out of Ukraine feels depressing. Feels as if Russia are beginning to slowly grind the Ukrainian defensives in the Donbas down. Not sure the West has the same enthusiasm and collective resolve as it did the immediate months.
 
The news coming out of Ukraine feels depressing. Feels as if Russia are beginning to slowly grind the Ukrainian defensives in the Donbas down. Not sure the West has the same enthusiasm and collective resolve as it did the immediate months.

Thats my feeling too; but there seem to be a couple of unknowns here. One is that Russia simply cannot continue at this rate of attrition in order to achieve the relatively small gains they have made. The other is that (and I have no idea if it’s true or not) Ukraine is doing what Russia was too impatient to do- building up motivated, trained forces to counter attack, and for the moment just holding on as much as they can whilst that build up happens. Obviously I hope both those things are true but it’s impossible to prove. I guess in a months time we might be seeing a very different picture.
 
The news coming out of Ukraine feels depressing. Feels as if Russia are beginning to slowly grind the Ukrainian defensives in the Donbas down. Not sure the West has the same enthusiasm and collective resolve as it did the immediate months.
Lot of talk that now Putin has been humiliated there is less interest from some NATO countries.
 
Lot of talk that now Putin has been humiliated there is less interest from some NATO countries.

Don't think there is less interest. We just can't send massive financial support and weapons constantly on a day to day basis. I'd say apart from engaging in a direct hot war with Russia in Ukraine the west is doing what it can.
 
Don't think there is less interest. We just can't send massive financial support and weapons constantly on a day to day basis. I'd say apart from engaging in a direct hot war with Russia in Ukraine the west is doing what it can.
I wouldn't be surprised if there actually is less interest in a lot of places right now, and especially the US. Russia is no longer attacking all of Ukraine, there is now 'just' a war of attrition in the east and Russia isn't clearly winning it. Places that see Russia as a competitor (like the US) are probably happy with this situation, as it is very costly for Russia, won't be good for Russian public support for the war, and means the sanctions can stay in place - all without further effort from or cost to NATO and (mostly) without the sort of outrageous situations/events that make the general public of NATO countries force their governments into action. From the perspective of the US government, I imagine that's a pretty good situation.

(Yes, it's a very cynical outlook, I know.)
 
I wouldn't be surprised if there actually is less interest in a lot of places right now, and especially the US. Russia is no longer attacking all of Ukraine, there is now 'just' a war of attrition in the east and Russia isn't clearly winning it. Places that see Russia as a competitor (like the US) are probably happy with this situation, as it is very costly for Russia, won't be good for Russian public support for the war, and means the sanctions can stay in place - all without further effort from or cost to NATO and (mostly) without the sort of outrageous situations/events that make the general public of NATO countries force their governments into action. From the perspective of the US government, I imagine that's a pretty good situation.

(Yes, it's a very cynical outlook, I know.)

Also, the 40 billion the US just contributed hasn't even begun to factor into all of this. That's more than enough to keep this thing going until the Russians run out of resources.
 
Lot of talk that now Putin has been humiliated there is less interest from some NATO countries.

Where is this "lot of talk" ? I think some are conflating the fact that Ukraine isn't leading the daily news cycle with the level of commitment that has already been shown by "the west" to support the Ukrainian military. The money is still flowing and the weapons are still clandestinely making their way into Ukraine across neighboring NATO borders.
 
Where is this "lot of talk" ? I think some are conflating the fact that Ukraine isn't leading the daily news cycle with the level of commitment that has already been shown by "the west" to support the Ukrainian military. The money is still flowing and the weapons are still clandestinely making their way into Ukraine across neighboring NATO borders.
Just looking at the current headlines. Telegraph article from today for example: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion...t-crumbling-now-putin-has-humiliated-ukraine/
 
Zelensky’s and Arestovich’s latest assessments on Donbass are pretty grim. Arestovich said that they’re “barely hanging in there” in a YouTube stream and that Russia is trying to finish an encirclement around Lisichansk & Severodonetsk to “create a new Mariupol”. And that Russia an overwhelming superiority in artillery & in the air there.
 
I don't think so since there is so little smoke, Phosphorus makes a lot of smoke when it burns. Russians have some incendiary munitions that doesn't use Phosphorus for the grad mlrs system and that could be what we are seeing here..
fecking surreal.
 
Thats my feeling too; but there seem to be a couple of unknowns here. One is that Russia simply cannot continue at this rate of attrition in order to achieve the relatively small gains they have made. The other is that (and I have no idea if it’s true or not) Ukraine is doing what Russia was too impatient to do- building up motivated, trained forces to counter attack, and for the moment just holding on as much as they can whilst that build up happens. Obviously I hope both those things are true but it’s impossible to prove. I guess in a months time we might be seeing a very different picture.

Patience is always important in war, everyone expects a quick victory one way or the other and it rarely plays out that way. Ukraine needs time for the Western money and resources to arrive to equip and train their new units. Most analysts have been consistent that Russian forces will only "culminate" around August so there's still another few months of fighting before we can expect any significant UKR counterattack.
 
Russians appear to be advancing a lot more than expected?


Looks like they’re taking a lot of casualties but are slowly edging forwards yes. Ukraine are waiting on a lot of long range weaponry though, maybe that will change things.
 
Looks like they’re taking a lot of casualties but are slowly edging forwards yes. Ukraine are waiting on a lot of long range weaponry though, maybe that will change things.

There's also terrain topography to take into consideration, as this video explains (now including maps with integrated topography).

 
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