Just another example of Soviet Russia being the real enemy of the people under its rule, while abusing the concept of "enemy of the people"/ "enemy of the workers ".
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Just another example of Soviet Russia being the real enemy of the people under its rule, while abusing the concept of "enemy of the people"/ "enemy of the workers ".
If NATO extended any form of a security shield into Ukraine from Poland, Russia would see, not unreasonably, those Polish based NATO radars / missiles as legitimate military targets.
Then we leave the ball in Putin's court to decide if he wants to attack NATO territory directly. If the answer is yes, we don't have to react immediately to start WW3, but we then know how far he is willing to go and that the Baltic states are definitely in danger. If the answer is no, we start to have a clearer idea of Putin's red lines in this war. Either way, we gain information.
I might not be an expert on the double or triple bluff this sort of situation needs, but at some point you have to resist and out-think the madman across the table.
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If this is Bayraktar, it just once again proved, it's on similar level to Sentinel / Predator drone and that Israeli one, forgot the name.
I'd argue that at this point, we need to do is let Putin keep making his mistakes, and the way to do that is to keep denying him strategic options. Widening the theatre of conflict, which is what your proposal would do, gives him such options. I get that it looks like Putin gets to choose his actions while we constrain ours, but we're doing that partly to deny him political room for manoeuvre, and in truth, his choosing isn't winning him anything. So who cares what it looks like - let him keep digging his holes.
That said, I do think the West/US/NATO needs to consider what it wants the future to look like after this - what is the endgame here?
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Don't get me wrong, I am very glad that his military is so utterly incapable that it has given us more flexibility to remain constrained, and that gives us a slight political upper hand for now. We need to use that advantage and squeeze him as much as we can.
But my worry is that this is all irrelevant in the end because his will is simply stronger than ours. I fear he will just force his way to a favourable outcome in Ukraine for now, then force us to lift sanctions so that he can rebuild his army for Round 2. If he is allowed a Round 2, it will probably be a much better job than what he is doing now. We cannot allow that.
ist true kadyrov was made general ?
It doesn't matter how strong his will is, if he's bleeding, surrounded by sharks and with no weapons. He's not rebuilding without external help and he he can't force us to lift sanctions. Russia is screwed.
Looks like it is.
I hope you right about that. The UK government is already talking about lifting sanctions on withdrawal of troops, which makes me quite uneasy. We need to pin the fecker down to the ground for a good 10 years if not forever.
Some progress maybe... you should probably watch the interview yourself though and listen to Zelensky of you want a true sense of where these negotiations are up to. He does not give off a great impression of 'progress' in these talks. Your man Ivan leaves a few relevant points out of his thread, all his credentials getting in the way maybe.
The demilitarization is hardly "contentious", it will quite simply never be up for discussion. To quote Zelensky - "That is incomprehensible to me, we would not sit at the table if that is what is being discussed".
Any non-NATO or neutral promise would be a constitutional change, he states this would take at least a year. Multiple referendum's required, they could offer Russia guarantee's, all Russian troops would have to leave Ukraine before this process could begin and guarantees signed by 3rd party countries.
Non-Nuclear guarantee would need to be a far more serious agreement than the Budapest Memorandum.
He rules out taking back pre-Feb 24th occupied terriories with military means but he's not conceding them, alludes to continued diplomatic efforts. He also however issues a subtle warning that this is his opinion on the matter and that future elected leaders may not hold that view.
Basically nothing would happen unless/until Russian forces are back behind pre 24/2 lines and he avoids the question about what if the referendums say no. A line of dialog is always good but unless something dramatic changes on the ground there's no point paying much attention to these negotiations.
Well I agree with that. I can see some sanctions being lifted as an incentive for a withdrawal but there has to be a reorientation that constrains Russia's power, especially weaponry and gas.
Of course people are debating possible outcomes and solutions, it doesn't mean we decide for Ukraine but there will obviously be tons of opinions and in the internet age everybody will voice their opinion on any matter and you just can't silence that.
I'd imagine it'd centre around an overall recognition that the invasion has been a watershed moment - that Russia is now to be very firmly seen as an enemy state that must be crippled and undermined in every possible way until - if ever - it becomes a genuinely democratic, westward looking nation.
This means:
* Maintain current sanctions for as long as Putin remains in power, crippling the Russian economy and its ability to replace lost military equipment and weapons.
* Continue to supply large amounts of weapons into whatever areas of Ukraine that remain under the control of the Ukrainian government.
* Funnel lots of money into Ukraine to help them rebuild, possibly in part by seizing some or all of the $300 billion of currently frozen Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves.
* Refuse to recognise as Russian any areas annexed by Putin (including Crimea) unless the Zelenskyy government decides to first offer such recognition.
* Bring Ukraine into the EU (but not NATO), assuming that nations like like Hungary (under Orban) don't veto this.
* Increase NATO defence spending for the forseeable future and move more units into front-line countries.
* Massive increases in defence spending by European nations in particular - as a hedge against the possibility that Trump (or someone like him) could regain the American Presidency and then pull out of NATO.
* Accept into NATO any additional European nations that might wish to now join - e.g. Finland, Sweden etc.
* Rapid movement in Europe towards zero need for Russian energy supplies (coal, oil, gas etc)
* Actively encourage and support separatist movements in every single nation/region within Russia's sphere of influence - thus maximising the drain on Russian military resources.
Damn.
Thanks.
Don't know how true but blowing up on twitter
I think its pretty clear, at least from a US perspective.
- Russian troops out of Ukraine and back to pre-invasion positions (at a minimum).
- Continued sanctions that keep the economic boot to Putin's throat to destabilize him from within
Wow, if true that'd be a huge story.
The jury is still out. Thread here analysing it, lots of points suggesting fake. This would not be unprecedented for Russia if we remember the elaborate staged videos in the days running up to the invasion.
The biggest news today. G7 (EU+North America) has said it will not pay Russia for gas in rubles. Russia has replied that it will now shut off gas supplies as they will not supply "for free". The Russians are deadly serious, too, imo. Not saying the G7 should fold, but the economic fallout is going to be immense.
Bellingcat reporting it
Polonium FC
Holy shit
The bigger fallout will be on the Russians, because they will lose income that they can now ill-afford to lose, whilst the European economies are far stronger than that of Russia and so better able to absorb and withstand the economic pressure. It will also accelerate moves towards European independence from Russian energy supplies.
This is now fully subtitled for English-speaking viewers. Will watch second half later.
Yes, this is true, but Russia is already on a war-footing for the duration of the Ukrainian invasion. EU alternatives to Russian energy are at least two years away. It will be catastrophic in the economic short-term unless they reach a "third way" which seems unlikely as the entire point of the ruble demand is to say to European countries that the sanctions on the Russian economy are illegitimate. Russia, meanwhile, will move to the Asian market. Already constructing new pipelines in China.
Christ.
Taken from Reddit comments:
This feels like a predictably botched attempt at using Roman to unwittingly carry poison for Zelinskyy.
They've exported gas to China for some time now..It's nothing new.
Yeah, I know, but with new piplines it is the volume which is new. That goes for other Asian markets, too.
Also:
Square this:
With this: