Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

nimic said:
We've seen a lot of estimates about Russian losses, but I wonder what Ukrainian (military/paramilitary) losses are like. Presumably... higher?
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No, presumably lower. Attackers usually suffer higher losses than defenders. Plus the Ukrainians know the terrain better and won't be suffering re-supply issues to the same degree as the Russians.

Also, from what I've read, the average Ukrainian soldier is better trained - and led more ably - than their Russian counterparts.
 
Dr. Dwayne said:
They're already up and have been since the invasion began. Now, that may be due to other threat actors taking the opportunity during a crisis but yeah, I've assumed the west has been under massive cyber attack since this started.

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2022/03/16/658336.htm
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The IT guy at my law firm also works as a security expert for ATOS (big cybersecurity company in western europe) and yeah, he's been pretty busy for the past months but he told me that nothing too serious has showed up so far.
 
So the Russians don’t have an NCO corps and also don’t have a commanding General who is responsible for the whole campaign. No wonder they’re making it up as they go.
 
nimic said:
We've seen a lot of estimates about Russian losses, but I wonder what Ukrainian (military/paramilitary) losses are like. Presumably... higher?
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No, much lower at least in the military. They have advantage of defence , it is said around 10-1 as a rule of thumb, although I am not sure for what type of force parity this usually pertains to.
 
GlastonSpur said:
"... most modern militaries rely on a strong cadre of noncommissioned officers. Sergeants make sure that vehicles are maintained and exercise leadership in squad tactics. The Russian NCO corps is today, as it has always been, both weak and corrupt. And without capable NCOs, even large numbers of technologically sophisticated vehicles deployed according to a compelling doctrine will end up broken or abandoned, and troops will succumb to ambushes or break under fire."
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That part has been echoed yesterday by Gen. David Petraeus when he made the last point to Jake Tapper on how and why 5 Russian generals have been picked off thus far in less than a month.



The most interesting comment on Youtube brought up an interesting point that explains the stark contrast between American/Western-inspired military and Russian military:

"The death of the generals is amplified by the lack of self direction identified in the lower ranks. That is the opposite of what one German general observed about American soldiers: he found them one and all to believe they were the next General Patton, and that the old military ploy of killing the leaders didn't work the same with American soldiers. The Russian front line personnel lack any knowledge of the overall strategies involved or overall goals of the campaign. They also have no way of honestly conveying what they are seeing on the battle field to the command level personnel because they have been taught that 'thinking wrong' will get them punished."
 
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Raoul said:
So the Russians don’t have an NCO corps and also don’t have a commanding General who is responsible for the whole campaign. No wonder they’re making it up as they go.
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Wut? Come on, that must must be just an internet meme.

Is the commander Putin from a work PC, with Command & Conquer: Red Alert loaded and simulating the war?
 
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MadMike said:
Wut? Common, that must must be just an internet meme.

Is the commander Putin from a work PC, with Command & Conquer: Red Alert loaded and simulating the war?
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According to reports, it appears that there are independent commanders for each front/theater rather than an overarching commander.
 
GlastonSpur said:
No, presumably lower. Attackers usually suffer higher losses than defenders. Plus the Ukrainians know the terrain better and won't be suffering re-supply issues to the same degree as the Russians.

Also, from what I've read, the average Ukrainian soldier is better trained - and led more ably - than their Russian counterparts.
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True, but there's always the question of firepower.

I just fear we're making some wildly optimistic assumptions that are going to confuse us when dispelled.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
... The most interesting comment on Youtube brought up an interesting point that explains the stark contrast between American/Western-inspired military and Russian military:

"The death of the generals is amplified by the lack of self direction identified in the lower ranks. That is the opposite of what one German general observed about American soldiers: he found them one and all to believe they were the next General Patton, and that the old military ploy of killing the leaders didn't work the same with American soldiers. The Russian front line personnel lack any knowledge of the overall strategies involved or overall goals of the campaign. They also have no way of honestly conveying what they are seeing on the battle field to the command level personnel because they have been taught that 'thinking wrong' will get them punished."
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Even worse, apparently many of the troops didn't even know - weren't told - that they were being sent to invade Ukraine. They initially thought that everything was just a continuation of the training exercises they were on.
 
Sir Matt said:
According to reports, it appears that there are independent commanders for each front/theater rather than an overarching commander.
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I mean so long as these guys are all in a room and taking decisions collectively while redistributing their assets based on changing circumstances on the battlefield then it's fine. If they are in silos taking decisions individually and potentially even competing against each other to ingratiate themselves to uncle Vlad, then god help them.
 
Sir Matt said:
According to reports, it appears that there are independent commanders for each front/theater rather than an overarching commander.
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No historian but I think that's how they worked in WW2, although whether that was to stimulate the commanders to compete against each other to become the most successful, or whether it was to prevent a great commander from taking all the credit and becoming a threat to the leader, or a combination of both, I'm not sure.
 
nimic said:
True, but there's always the question of firepower.

I just fear we're making some wildly optimistic assumptions that are going to confuse us when dispelled.
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You're right that the Russians have a big advantage in firepower, although this will diminish with time because ever-more sophisticated weapons are being funnelled into Ukrainian hands. Also, it's not clear how rapidly the Russians are using up their stocks of missiles (etc) - e.g. some reports suggest that up to half of their entire stock of Cruise missiles have already been fired.

Overall, superior fire-power only takes you so far. It doesn't occupy and hold ground, nor protect re-supply roots. For these you need boots on the ground - and Russia is depleting their boots at an astonishing rate.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
I wouldn't say a need for a large scale offensive, but I think the best way to put a quick end to the war would be the Ukrainian army drawing the bulk of the Russian force in a very vulnerable area where the latter can be picked off and pounded until being forced to surrender. One big battle to cripple and humiliate the invading army beyond repair. That is the key moment that decided the fate of the Indochina War with a massive French defeat in 1954.
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Except the French defeat wasn’t that though, it was a well fortified position with minefields, mounted artillery, salients, the lot. Hard to see the Ukrainians achieving a similar outcome if Russians are dug in and well entrenched.
 
One big question is to what extent is a very isolated Putin aware of the massive casualties now being suffered by his troops? There are some commentators who believe that everyone, without exception, in the very small group now around him are too scared to deliver the bad news.

If this is true, we'd have a completely bizarre situation in which his invasion forces slowly disintegrate towards collapse, whilst Putin, blissfully unware, continues with his totalitarian demands for Ukrainian surrender.

I guess ultimately it would play out a bit like the Hitler-in-the-bunker scene in Downfall ... of which, incidentally, there are now several Ukraine-versions if anyone has not seen them. Here's one example:

 
MadMike said:
I mean so long as these guys are all in a room and taking decisions collectively while redistributing their assets based on changing circumstances on the battlefield then it's fine. If they are in silos taking decisions individually and potentially even competing against each other to ingratiate themselves to uncle Vlad, then god help them.
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Thats how the Japanese were in WW2 -- Army versus Navy. They literally hated each other. and in some cases worked against each other.
 


:lol: They keep putting more helicopters at the same airfield where they got blown up the other day without being able to protect them.

They've also pushed the Russians out of several villages to the West and Northwest of Kyiv (Makariv and Moshchun). It seems they are counter-attacking towards Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel where fighting has been focused since the start. If they are able to eliminate those forces, it would remove the threat to Kyiv from the West.
 
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Sir Matt said:


:lol: They keep putting more helicopters at the same airfield where they got blown up the other day without being able to protect them.

They've also pushed the russians out of several villages to the West and Northwest of Kyiv (Makariv and Moshchun)
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At this rate they will be out of equipment soon.
 
Sir Matt said:


:lol: They keep putting more helicopters at the same airfield where they got blown up the other day without being able to protect them.

They've also pushed the Russians out of several villages to the West and Northwest of Kyiv (Makariv and Moshchun). It seems they are counter-attacking towards Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel where fighting has been focused since the start. If they are able to eliminate those forces, it would remove the threat to Kyiv from the West.
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Shakesey said:
I find it tedious when chess players talk about "strategy" as if they're some sort of authority. How high a price would you pay for freedom? What exactly is freedom? Is a country's freedom worth one life? A thousand?
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Is life worth it after all?
 
Shakesey said:
I find it tedious when chess players talk about "strategy" as if they're some sort of authority. How high a price would you pay for freedom? What exactly is freedom? Is a country's freedom worth one life? A thousand?
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I'm not sure why he keeps getting quoted. His other tweets include his belief that Putin is actually more likely to use nukes if NATO don't intervene as he'll feel he can do what he wants. You can make your own mind up in that but to me it's nonsense.

Putin isn't rampaging through Europe he doesn't have that capacity. He'll be more than aware of how fecked Russia is right now. The rest of the world have boxed his aggression and whilst that's intolerable for Ukraine (and anyone watching on) it's NATO and not Putin that are the winners.
 
Asger said:
Is life worth it after all?
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Life is worth everything for the person living it. For them it is worth more than anything. At least, that is in a pure biological point of view. For some reason people have a kind of bee-mentality. Die and take one for the hive.
MadMike said:
Nothing really matters. Anyone can see.
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Life matters. Freedom is an illusion.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Why Can’t the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/
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I think the West is very aware of the sit rep but are taking things cautiously. No need to blow the trumpet loudly and distract the soldiers on the field. Russia also has chemical weapons that can turn the tide quickly.

Just like in football, you can do well for 89 minutes and then let in 2 late goals if you let your guard down.

It is a good sign that the Ukrainians have resisted this well so far, and the Switchblade drones and new Allied weapons haven't even arrived yet.
 
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Shakesey said:
I find it tedious when chess players talk about "strategy" as if they're some sort of authority. How high a price would you pay for freedom? What exactly is freedom? Is a country's freedom worth one life? A thousand?
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Calling Kasparov a mere chess player is sheer ignorance at this point. There’s a reason he is exiled from Russia.

You might be able to answer your question better in a personal capacity the more you read and learn. For example, a place like North Korea I used to find more curious and odd, a place I thought I would naively like to visit one day. When I actually spent the time to read and listen to people who had lived and were fortunate to escape from North Korea, I realised how stupid I was to hold such a place with any degree of fascination. Ditto speaking to my wife’s grandparents who lived through the Soviet Union and were essentially forced to move about the empire to meet its needs.

The vast majority of us on this forum have no idea how privileged we are to be born and live in relatively stable democracies with a high degree of freedom and tolerance.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Whoops, right. I forgot that the CIA had many insiders in the Soviet Union/Russia in those novels. Cardinal is closer to the profile.

I don't how many of you are watchers of Mehdi Hasan, but he brought this interesting part in his show yesterday evening. The fact that Putin is a huge fan of that *********** is extremely disconcerting, and we should have known that part years ago.
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That's one hell of a video. Explains a lot.
 
Shakesey said:
I find it tedious when chess players talk about "strategy" as if they're some sort of authority. How high a price would you pay for freedom? What exactly is freedom? Is a country's freedom worth one life? A thousand?
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He’s not getting quoted because he’s a chess player, he’s an exiled Russian with experience of the Soviet Union who is a human rights activist and has been bang on about Putin not stopping with Crimea and invading Ukraine.
 
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