Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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And how to read these maps:
Exactly this. Previous Western - re: US - interventionism has absolutely no bearing on this. Arguably, Afghanistan has proven countless times that invading a country and propping up a friendly government requires a non-stop military presence. Ukraine is not Afghanistan or even Chechnya in the slightest - it has a widely educated population who have made it very clear that they do not want to live under the Russian yoke, have a Western trained military and seem to be incredibly willing to continue resistance.
Russia has proven that it cannot be trusted at all in negotiations. Whether that's because they've lost command discipline and literally can't enforce their orders on the front line (which I'm actually inclined to believe, because shelling fleeing civilians is not only barbaric but counter intuitive to furthering their goals) or whatever is irrelevant, their word means nothing.
Therefore, simply "agreeing" to their demands is not an option for any government of Ukraine. Ukraine cannot go the way of Switzerland, as it's impossible with Russia on your border and Finlandisation is seemingly impossible as long as Russia continues to annex Crimea and support the artificial breakaway provinces. Russia needs to think about its own people too - if Ukraine were to agree to their demands, the sanctions will remain. Should Russia compromise and roll back on its invasion plus agree to tidy up the destruction they've caused I think you'll see sanctions rolled back. What that compromise looks like is anyone's guess at this moment, but it can't be their current stated war aims.
One more thing to add, should Ukraine actually decide to rescind their application for NATO under threat from Russia I think you'll find other countries immediately looking to join the alliance to avoid the same fate, i.e. Finland and Sweden. Then you'll see how much of a deal NATO actually is for Russia or whether that was a smokescreen to simply steamroll a successful democratic nation on its border to avoid its large Russian minority from corrupting their brethren within the Federation's borders.
Does this change as Russia's economy tumbles?
I can't see Putin upping the ante. He's already commited 95% of his forces and most of it is bogged down and tied up. He's got no reserves, ffs he is begging Syrians to join. He might take on whole Europe, but that means US too, as that would allow him full mobilization, but he can't win that war, he said so himself, only move left is nukes, and I see coup before that happens. Either way it's GG for Putin if he escalates. Honestly, I think West will offer him Crimea as a way out and he should accept it, otherwise I don't see this ending well for him.
I might be completely wrong, but based on parameters I'm seeing from following this war, that's the best he can hope for. He might achieve victory through military power, but I think that's significantly less likely than suffering a complete defeat.
95% of the prepared combat force for this invasion, not all of the Russian military. He may choose to mobilize more troops to send to Ukraine, though I doubt it.
Maybe not. So fight on until June then when Putin can't pay his troops, be interesting to see how the people of Crimea feel then.
Interesting thread, but maybe praetorian guard was a poor comparison given they were involved in or even directly lead most coups against emperors.
Fingers crossed!
I mean, I don't get this. If a free referendum in Crimea is guaranteed to choose Russia over Ukraine, then why not accept it? It will also give the Kremlin the democratic legitimacy it seeks.
Mentions of Syria are quite interesting. At what point would the west consider going in directly and overthrowing the government there? Is it definitely a no go so long as there are more than handful of Russian troops do we think? What if a tame 3rd party like the Aussies or someone went in? They have a defence pact with US and UK (for better or worse) but I don't think they're part of NATO right?
So if I understand what you’re saying, you believe Russia is facing complete defeat in the near future? 95% of his forces involved, no reserves, no possibility of further escalation etc.
I believe this is wishful thinking, but I really hope I’m wrong.
Hopefully never, because Iraq and Afghanistan prove that little good and much suffering comes from those attempts.
It was a referendum at gunpoint, which is why no one (other than nations representing the opening scene in the Naked Gun) recognize it as legit, and continue to view Crimea as part of Ukraine.
I'm talking of a new, proper and free referendum as part of a potential peace deal. The president can't just sign away national territory (Crimea) otherwise.
I'm not sure if they are that focused on Kyiv. Biggest goal is the south and Odessa. As you mentioned even if they breach the capital, maintaining control of it would be monumental task and they need to concentrate a lot of manpower there alone.
Russia already ran a referendum that gave this result
For Russia to now say there needs to be a free referendum with international oversight so that the result is legitimate would not on call into question the legitimacy of their previous referendum but other elections in Russia
So I'm pretty sure that would be a Defcon 1 type red line
How free would it be given that all Russian controlled territory is marinating in wall to wall Goebels style pro-Putin propaganda.
Putin would have to fall, the Ukrainians would then have to set in motion a timeline (let's say one year) for locals to decide their future based on a credible and transparent referendum that is free from any outside influence.
Left it out because I wasn't replying to it. It's a subjective matter to say if they're accurate enough or not. Just yesterday CNN had a headline "Russia exhausted 95% of its troops".
Again, just seems to me like an easy way for the rest of the world to go to sleep easier thinking Ukraine is fighting back without actually committing to the fight. Saying "yeah, this sucks but we kinda don't wanna get our hands dirty. Sorry Ukraine, was nice knowing ya!" doesn't sound as good.
Is Russia going to pay to rebuild the country they have just smashed!
I doubt it.
Well in Big Bad Vlad’s mind, isn’t this all just friendly fire on his own cities currently dictated to by the criminal Zelinsky?
I understand that but equally the President (of Ukraine) can't just sign away territory can he? Does he even have the constitutional authority to do that? Something will have to give, somehow.
What happened in the last Belarusian elections showed the danger of a dictator presuming the result will be in their favour.
It bled so much you could briefly get 200 Rubles for a Pound just now.
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Yes - my gut fee is that if its a case of
1. Putin Killing lots of people to save face and Zelenski giving away territory to stop the killing
2. Or Putin deciding that he is going to give up his claim on Crimea and handing it back to zelenski
I am unfortunately thinking scenario 1 is a lot more likley
I can't help but feel that part of Russia's aim in this war is to set things up for a situation where, even if they don't achieve all their goals, they're in a strong position to play the old referendum game to annex everything east of the Dnieper via a 'democratic vote'. I have an inkling that the intentional shelling of civilian targets and the creation of a refugee crisis in the eastern cities is, in part, a deliberate move to engineer favourable demographics for both that referendum and subsequent rule from Moscow. What's the betting a refugee returning to their home in an occupied east would find a family of Russian settlers sitting at the dinner table?
Russian economy is shattered. In a week or so, it will crumble, in a month it will be on its death bed. I am sure some additional sanctions will follow too. Any news regarding jet fighters from Poland?
That could be one objective of Putin's if he can't take all of Ukraine, but it probably wouldn't have time to work if his own economy collapses in the interim. Even then, Crimea would still be infested with brainwashed Russians steeped in a decade of pro-Russian propaganda, which would make it very difficult.
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To what extent can China prop up the Russian economy?
True. But I doubt it too. Those troops will not be particularly trained, low on morale. Plus mobilization for war in ukraine will be unpopular. That just might be his last move. He could reallocate existing forces, but that's risky too. He might lose in Syria. 'Stans might try to go independent. Really hard to get more manpower to Ukraine.
What is near future? But it's not unrealistic. Really optimistic scenario I give it two months. Micheal Kofman (he's been very on point so far) speculates that in three weeks, Russian military is spent. Then we might see ceasefire or counter offensive (that's the basis for really optimistic scenario).
If the FSB whistleblower account is true Russian economy is gone by June. They will not be able to support war. So in just optimistic scenario they are defeated by Fall.
Pessimistic scenario is Russia will take some cities, dig in and keep them occupied and war will keep going on for years, but eventually they'll have to leave or Ukrainians will slowly drive them out with significant casualties. Basically similar to Yugoslav wars. Honestly, I think Serbians/Yugoslavia had much better position in that war than Russians do now. And yet, Serbia/Yugoslavia achieved none of its political goals.
Finally, really pesimistic scenario. Russia manages to take Mariupol quickly. Maybe Kharkiv too, and then cuts off and encircles Ukrainians forces in the east and completely destroys them. They keep progressing in the south, eventually taking Odessa. Finally they split the country in half. Dig in and proclaim novorussya. Conflict goes on for years, even a decade, with western powers abandoning Ukraine and Russia dealing with massive insurgency. Basically we get middle east in europe. I find this scenario the most unlikely of all, but not impossible. It's the only way I see Russia getting anything out of it. It would not be worth it. Much better to settle for Crimea now.
Ruble has declined from 76 = $1 a month ago, to 147 = $1 today - i.e. it's almost halved in value.
If receiving constitutional guarantees that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership allows Russia to claim a victory, and remove their forces then that's not the worst outcome. But the same shouldn't apply to a potential EU membership, because joining the EU could potentially have so many more benefits for the country way beyond the defence arguments that NATO provides. As a sovereign country Ukraine should be allowed to choose their future of their own volition, and obviously that applies to both EU and NATO ambitions but I believe NATO isn't as important if they were allowed to join the EU. And Putin can't argue this is about protecting Russia from western aggression when it comes to the EU, when he's painted NATO as the main bogeyman.
That being said, if the Ukrainians have the stomach for it, I think this conflict has gone too far to accept any kind of compromises like that. With all those atrocities committed Russia shouldn't be allowed to walk away with anything Putin can sell as a victory back home. This may well be a chance to weaken Putin's domestic standing, even if it may take a while. Of course that would mean more Ukrainian suffering in the mean time, and ordinary Russians will also suffer under the sanctions, so it's not for me to judge which ever choice Ukraine may make, but the world would be a better place if this whole crisis hopefully leads to a more democratic and reasonable Russia, with Ukraine's sovereignty in tact.
That being said, if the Ukrainians have the stomach for it, I think this conflict has gone too far to accept any kind of compromises like that. With all those atrocities committed Russia shouldn't be allowed to walk away with anything Putin can sell as a victory back home. This may well be a chance to weaken Putin's domestic standing, even if it may take a while. Of course that would mean more Ukrainian suffering in the mean time, and ordinary Russians will also suffer under the sanctions, so it's not for me to judge which ever choice Ukraine may make, but the world would be a better place if this whole crisis hopefully leads to a more democratic and reasonable Russia, with Ukraine's sovereignty in tact.
Tough decisions for Zelenskiy.
Well there you go ... if you want to put a price in human life it seems its about half your gas bill
From a ukranian pov, accepting not being able to join NATO/EU seems suicidal long term. What else would Russia stop - even in the near future - from keeping pushing forward? They started in Crimea and now they keep pushing.