LNR and DNR claim the whole of the oblasts, but only control a minority of the area currently. You are signing over whole villages, towns, cities and citizens to a totalitarian, fascist dictatorship. How can any president of any country do that to his citizens? It's too easy just to see this as land.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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It's always a good idea to try to figure out what a deal means before deciding to agree or not.
Then the war will have to continue until its resolved one way or another (if Ukraine wants independence) won't it? Why would you trust Putin's Russia to not invade you again? He's only done it twice in 8 years, in both cases tearing up Russian agreements to respect Ukraine's sovereignty. Putin has zero credibility left in the eyes of Ukrainians and the rest of the world. So the only future safety guarantee for Ukrainians is EU/NATO participation. Not a paper from Putin saying "we won't do that again".
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No NATO term seems bogus too, they need a guarantee of some sort of protection. Accepting those terms is like signing another Budapest treaty, only replace ukrainian nuclear bombs with LNR/DNR independence and Crimea, and russians have already ripped that up as it was nothing. Only understandable, that Ukraine is not going to accept anything, that will guarantee their safety on russian promise.
Agree to not join NATO, then join NATO. Deals are meaningless to Putin, might as well treat them the same.
Didn’t realize it had any blood left.
This is the worst possible deal for Ukraine. They would give away some of their territory and basically become Belarus. There will be no deal that includes the 1st and 3rd points and rightly so. Ukraine is a sovereign country and they should be able to choose their allies themselves. It's none of Putin's business if they want to join EU or NATO. Ukraine just need to hold on for a little longer and Russia regime will start cracking.
But Crimeans and those in the separatist regions don't want to live under Ukrainian rule, if I'm not mistaken? It is what it is...
The issue is, that the separatists claim far bigger areas than they actually control. It might be wise to allow the separatists to join Russia, but not in the borders they claim.
That's why I think, IF there will be any deal struck, it will include Ukraine officially agreeing that Crimea is Russia's territory and possibly accept the independence of those 2 regions. But I just can't see any deal being made that includes change of the government personnel and agreeing not to join EU/NATO.
The reason I'd like the war to end is I really don't see a way out of this for Ukraine without Civilian casualties reaching 6 figures based on the way Russia are going and considering the cowardly way the west is acting I really don't see how Ukraine defeats Russia. The west and Ukrainian government seem to be preparing for some sort war of attrition which would have catastrophic consequences. I believe that US and NATO are trying to turn Ukraine into Putin's Afghanistan so, it suits them if this war is prolonged.
In what way does it suit them?
You don't end a war by surrendering that much though. The Russians are basically saying, "give us everything, get nothing from the west, feck you".
That's like me attacking you and then saying it only stops if your wife becomes my sex doll, your house is mine, and you can live in the garden, and by the way, you can never go to the police or our deal is off and I attack again.
This reads like a passage from Gulag Archipelago. Fecking animals.
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Civilian casualties barely entered the 4 figures so far, 6 is way off yet. And if Ukraine wants independence, they'll have to turn this into Putin's Afghanistan. What you're proposing is to accept capitulation and complete surrender.
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Causing Putin's regime to fall.
The strongman installs the people he wants and they do the things he tells them to.
There’a little to suggest the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions would have democratically voted for independence from Ukraine, especially with the population there in 2014. These were not organic separatist movements. They were supported, incentivised and manned by Russia. That really has to be emphasised. If Russia shipped (or ships) enough people there though, who knows what people would vote for.
Obviously while many Ukrainians have left the regions over the last eight years for a better life elsewhere, Russia’s invasion will have done nothing to persuade people there that their lives would be better as either part of Russia or a separatist state. Seriously, people think Ukraine should hand over Mariupol and the lives of the citizens living there? C’mon.
But wouldn't turning this into Putin's Afghanistan cause casualties to skyrocket? I can also see Putin getting frustrated and using tactical Nukes if this drags on. I also don't see any deterrent against him using Nukes in Ukraine as it wouldn't result in MAD.
There's no way the World would just stand by and watch Putin launch tactical nukes as a country and not do anything. That would be an incredibly dangerous precedent to set for World politics.
Ukraine counter-offer should be: a) full autonomy to Luhansk/Donetsk on the borders before the invasion; b) UN/OSCE controlled referendum for Crimea; c) neutrality but with some security guarantees (not that they matter for Russia, as we have seen).
Crimea is lost, but would be good if they can formally give it to Russia without losing face.
Crimea is lost, but would be good if they can formally give it to Russia without losing face.
There's zero chance Ukraine give up Crimea according to what I gather. My thinking had also been that they would have been right to recognize this to minimize losses but it doesn't seem to be a possibility even if this causes the war to drag for a long time.
The way things are going it might even be questionable if Russia is able to do that. They don't seem to be able to secure the airspace, so they can't risk to lose to many planes and helicopters, and they don't seem to be able to protect their logistics.
If Ukraine is able to keep it up, we might soon see the attacking forces running out of fuel and ammunition. They wouldn't be able to shell the cities anymore and would be hunted by the Ukrainians.
This is of course a military best case scenario for Ukraine, but it seems to be at least possible.
But how would that change the current calculus for not getting involved in Ukraine? In fact the images and videos of the aftermath would be so horrific that It would actually dissuade West from getting involved.
Well, they will need to give something. And as far as I understand, even if a legitimate referendum was made, people in Crimea would vote to join Russia nowadays. So, they could justify it as 'the will of the people' etc.
Even with a regime change, it is very hard to see Russia giving Crimea back to Ukraine.
It would be fecking horrible and a terrible precedent.
Not sure that the West would start a war over that though.
However, I do not think that is in cards. Russians still haven't used thermobaric weapons for example, so going to nukes doesn't seem reasonable. An Aleppo-fate for Ukrainian cities is very much on the cards though.
This is not a bad deal or rather not a bad starting point for Ukraine. If Putin is willing to go so low, he cannot be THAT confident.
So Zelensky is absolutely right to tell him to f off. Also, Russian promises are worth absolutely nothing at the moment (look at what they're doing with that nuclear power station). Once he has his puppet over Zelensky's head, he'll further drive the Russian propaganda and then do what he's doing now in 5-10 years (assuming he's not dead or his replacement continues the course).
What's dead may never die.
But I was told the British government was leading the way. Are you telling me they lied again?
It's sort of mad that, despite the advances made, Ukraine's forces seem to be holding out and, as new supplies arrive from allies, could arguably be in a relatively stronger position now than they were a few days ago.
God knows what they were expecting, but this is some Brasseye-level of invasion from the Kremlin. Realistically, could not be going worse.
God knows what they were expecting, but this is some Brasseye-level of invasion from the Kremlin. Realistically, could not be going worse.
The PM part has been debunked (or dropped) and the other two points are absolutely reasonable. If they don't accept that, and continue a war of attrition, then they are prolonging suffering for no good reason (if you assume that the deal is legitimate as ABC/NBC have reported). In the best case scenario, or close to it, the war ends with a settlement that looks like that. To throw that away now is insane.
According to "just war theory", the person refusing that is (at least rhetorically) criminal (in their stupidity).
Wait until the usual suspects come in to tell us it's all Western propaganda.
If you allow a country to launch Nukes at another in 2022 without any serious military repercussions then we deserve to fail as a human species. It's unthinkable to me that we should allow Russia to get away with it. What stops China from doing the same? What stops America? The political pressure on every Western leader to react would be immense. There are some actions in war that you simply don't turn away from and using Nukes is one of them. It would be my morale obligation to uphold the same values of my Grandfathers who fought in WW2 and sign up immediately. I wouldn't hesitate.
So if I'm not mistaken Russia stopped demanding a demilitarization of Ukraine since the last round of negotiations?
how is no nato reasonable? This has already shown that if anything NATO is more needed or else Russia will just come back in whenever they want more ukraine land. Guess not just giving up land and future land that russia will inevitably want is unreasonable according to some
it’s reasonable to change the constitution your country was founded upon…knowing Russia won’t be happy to stop there. Are you a Russian bot?!
NATO is never happening. You will see nukes deployed before NATO installs itself within Ukraine. NATO also knows this (whether Zelensky does or not is debatable but he acts like a man who doesn't). No EU is the most controversial one there and I think you could push back on that.
Unless they are willing to sign away the whole of the Donbas, "they are prolonging suffering for no good reason"? Mariupol, Kramatorsk etc.?
Nazis in the government apparently also no longer an issue. Proper progress made by Russia