Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

I understand the Russian perspective but I don't understand people justifying it as an excuse for war. The Ukranian people (40 million people) are clearly looking to the West and as a sovereign people it's their right to decide their country's future. Russia has lost any kind of ideological argument or philosophy they might have to persuade Ukraine not to do so. Does Russia have anything to offer other than aggressive nationalism?

Well there’s Divisive propaganda, oppression, repression, homophobia and…

Yeah, I think that’s it actually.
 
We can dream. Hope it transpires this way.
And then what? who is going to replace Putin? what happened to Iraq after Saddam? what happened after the taliban wasn’t in charge in Afghanistan? did any of this reduce or protract the suffering of millions in these countries? They are still suffering to this day. The guy replacing a dictator isn’t going to be a benevolent dove. He might be just as insane or even worse than Putin. None of what you’re prescribing is going to bring peace to either country involved.
 
WWII wasn’t fought and won to live under the thumb of a short, bloated old man. Nukes are obviously last resort, but the notion of just holding your hands up and say «Nah, just let him do what he wants, watcha gonna do?» is pretty weak.
Of course it's weak. I don't want to just roll over. And you know what - neither do our leaders. So, MAD is real. But if you just pan back a little and take ego and freedom and all those silly little things that make us human out of the equation, then it is better in the long run to just hold our hands up and say, "Nah." This is a fact. Unfortunately it won't happen. And that is what bugs the hell out of me.

If the price is extinction then there can be no benefit. None.
 
If you can spare a minute to share these links on social media or with friends and family, that would be great. They are charities seeking donations to help civilians in Ukraine.

Sunflower of Peace is a charity that helps paramedics and doctors, and has been fundraising for supplies, which includes first aid medical tactical backpacks.
Details of their appeal can be found here: https://en-gb.facebook.com/sunflowerofpeace/.


United Help Ukraine focuses on providing medical supplies and humanitarian aid, and raising awareness of the conflict.
Details of their appeal can be found here: https://unitedhelpukraine.org/.


Voices of Children aims to help children affected by the war in eastern Ukraine, providing support through art therapy, psychologists, video storytelling and a number of other methods.
Details of their appeal can be found here: https://voices.org.ua/en/.


UNICEF is working in Ukraine, focusing on helping protect children from the effects of war.
Details of their appeal can be found here: https://www.unicef.org.uk/donate/donate-now-to-protect-children-in-ukraine/.


The British Red Cross has launched an emergency appeal to help Ukraine. The charity will be updating its webpage with news on the work its team is doing, and how support will be used to help people.
Details of their appeal can be found here: https://donate.redcross.org.uk/appeal/ukraine-crisis-appeal.
 
According to this website it would take 100 atomic bombs. That does sound a little low, but anyway. Let's make it a thousand. Russia alone has more than a thousand. Strike. Retaliate. Retaliate. Retaliate. The end.
It is from 1945, so it does not matter. There have been over a thousand bombs detonated since then. Heck, Tsar Bomba alone had around as much power as 3000 Nagasaki/Hiroshima bombs (when that study was made).

It obviously is going to be catastrophic, and most people will die, but humanity (and obviously life) will survive.
 
Well, Brexit meant the UK surrendered sitting at the top table of global diplomacy. We’re very much below the US, the EU leaders, and those who represent the biggest European countries.

Erm I’m not so sure about that if this is anything to go by.

I guess depends what you class as diplomacy?
 
Not sure how Putin expects this to play out in the end, but if he gets his way, is there any chance that the west would just accept it, end the sanctions and move on? Because that's extremely unlikely and Russia won't be able to handle the sanctions long term. It's looking grim to be honest no matter how you think about it.
 
Shouldn't have this been heavily guarded, especially with how spot on the US intel has been.
Besides avoiding any fighting in the proximity, it's just 100 miles from both Crimea and Donetsk. So would have been only a matter of time till the Russians advance that far.
 
I understand the Russian perspective but I don't understand people justifying it as an excuse for war. The Ukranian people (40 million people) are clearly looking to the West and as a sovereign people it's their right to decide their country's future. Russia has lost any kind of ideological argument or philosophy they might have to persuade Ukraine not to do so. Does Russia have anything to offer other than aggressive nationalism?
You don’t understand the Russian (*Putin’s) perspective then. At least not the official line of propaganda.
 
And then what? who is going to replace Putin? what happened to Iraq after Saddam? what happened after the taliban wasn’t in charge in Afghanistan? did any of this reduce or protract the suffering of millions in these countries? They are still suffering to this day. The guy replacing a dictator isn’t going to be a benevolent dove. He might be just as insane or even worse than Putin. None of what you’re prescribing is going to bring peace to either countries involved.

Sure there's no guarantee but the alternative is appeasing Putin and we know how that works out. I'd rather take a chance that whomever replaces Putin is willing to deescalate. It's unlikely that Russia will experience a power vacuum like Iraq or a situation like Afghanistan where an extremist group is waiting to take over.

There are also examples like Germany in the 20th century where on two occasions those who stepped in after the rulers abdicated were willing to seek peace and negotiate to save what was left of their nation.
 
Come on Veevers, those former Warsaw Pact countries were just asking to be invaded by Russia and NATO let them in to antagonize poor Vlad.
The only thing I have contemplated in the last 24 hours, reading bits of Chomsky et al, is the argument that the West politically exposed Ukraine, lured them into no man’s land between East and West, with suggestions and promises that we were never likely to keep.

Yes, unquestionably, Ukraine and the Ukrainian people should be able to self determine its political direction. Yes, unquestionably, the blame entirely lays at Russia’s door for the terrible events of the last week and the last eight years.

But I have started to wonder whether Ukraine has been badly let down by the US, NATO and the EU. We give Ukraine and other similar countries and their peoples the carrot of NATO and EU membership, yet hold them at arm’s length until they join. We hide behind the fact they are not part of NATO, that they are a not an EU member, for our inaction when they invaded, despite selling them the promise of promise European integration.

I feel massive guilt towards my wife and her family for where Ukraine now finds itself. It’s easy to say, “Well, you are not part of NATO, and not part of the EU,” for not militarily defending them, until you actually have to say that to people who are having their homes and country destroyed.

There’s a real possibility that both NATO and the EU, whilst being emboldened and resilient right now, face a real identity and confidence crisis should the worst happen to Ukraine. Why would third countries want to align themselves with us, with the intention of one day joining, if we just allow a dictator to sabotage and then invade them whilst on their journey?
 
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
It’s the Ukrainian guy going nuts not me

:lol: I really shouldn’t laugh because that poor Ukrainian, who’s in Kiev of all places, was getting shat on by the host with constant “do not lecture us”.

“Dear Host” had me though. Poor guy was perplexed as to why his name was being dragged through the mud.
 
How close are they to the front line currently? The widely shared image I saw praising Vitali was from a training exercise a while back. Can't be that close given he's giving TV interviews. Lomachenko looks to be in the thick of it though.
They are both in the midst of it right in Kyiv.
 
It is from 1945, so it does not matter. There have been over a thousand bombs detonated since then. Heck, Tsar Bomba alone had around as much power as 3000 Nagasaki/Hiroshima bombs (when that study was made).

It obviously is going to be catastrophic, and most people will die, but humanity (and obviously life) will survive.
Yeah, from 1945. But that part - "humanity will survive" a nuclear war. Not true.

This website (NY Times, 2022) says 100 nukes in China would destroy 34 million people. There are currently 15,000 nukes in the world according to the article.
This Wikipedia page says just 50 Hiroshima-sized bombs would cool temperatures in one hemisphere by several degrees, decimating crops.

What would 10,000 do? Feck. It would kill us all.
 
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Sure there's no guarantee but the alternative is appeasing Putin and we know how that works out. I'd rather take a chance that whomever replaces Putin is willing to deescalate. It's unlikely that Russia will experience a power vacuum like Iraq or a situation like Afghanistan where an extremist group is waiting to take over.

There are also examples like Germany in the 20th century where on two occasions those who stepped in after the rulers abdicated were willing to seek peace and negotiate to save what was left of their nation.
why do you want to ‘take a chance’ when you have evidence from not so long ago that has resulted in millions suffering? shouldn’t the lesson be to not repeat that mistake. And more importantly isn’t the goal here to stop the war and stop more innocent lives being lost.
 
Yeah, from 1945. But that part - "humanity will survive" a nuclear war. Not true.

This website (NY Times, 2022) says 100 nukes in China would destroy 34 million people. There are currently 15,000 nukes in the world according to the article.
This Wikipedia page says just 50 Hiroshima-sized bombs would cool temperatures in one hemisphere by several degrees, decimating crops.

What would 10,000 do? Feck. It would kill us all.

lots of speculation, obviously, but I don't think it would end humanity. We're so adaptive, we might actually survive as a species. Civilization however would not.
 
Sure there's no guarantee but the alternative is appeasing Putin and we know how that works out. I'd rather take a chance that whomever replaces Putin is willing to deescalate. It's unlikely that Russia will experience a power vacuum like Iraq or a situation like Afghanistan where an extremist group is waiting to take over.

There are also examples like Germany in the 20th century where on two occasions those who stepped in after the rulers abdicated were willing to seek peace and negotiate to save what was left of their nation.

And if I may add to this, a solid example was Japan after WW2. That country was in ruins while many Japanese were still willing to abide by the old principle of fighting to the death. We have to remember that a slice of the remaining military even tried to overthrow the Emperor. Hence there was a risk for chaos down the line until a massive project for reconstruction was put in place with the right people in place to provide leadership. In a matter of a single decade or so, they exceeded their pre-war level of quality of life and eventually became the economic juggernaut we now know.

Russia has some infrastructure and enough people of good will to build a new society upon the remnants of the old regime unlike Afghanistan or Iraq. No one can promise easy days ahead, but giving a chance for intelligent and benevolent people to take their rightful place in leading the country is always worth a shot.
 
Comic relief:



This is amazing, what a twist! I honestly feel for the generations of Indians who travelled abroad, worked hard, excelled and rose to the very top of corperate culture - resulting in creating a positive image of India abroad. It's been burned to the ground by the BJP IT cell and the bhakts with their never ending thirst for bob vegene.
 
For me, France has an important test about power in “world political“and it can be measure Macron intelligence in world political too. if France passes this test, France will gain a lot of powers in world political. It’s a bit weird that Putin is closer to Macron than Schulz or Johnson.

Nothing weird about it. Putin knows how gullible Macron is and is treating him like his little lapdog.
Macron is desperate to get some credibility in his desire to be seen as the so called leader of the EU. Comical really.
 
The only thing I have contemplated in the last 24 hours, reading bits of Chomsky et al, is the argument that the West politically exposed Ukraine, lured them into no man’s land between East and West, with suggestions and promises that we were never likely to keep.

Yes, unquestionably, Ukraine and the Ukrainian people should be able to self determine its political direction. Yes, unquestionably, the blame entirely lays at Russia’s door for the terrible events of the last week and the last eight years.

But I have started to wonder whether Ukraine has been badly let down by the US, NATO and the EU. We give Ukraine and other similar countries and their peoples the carrot of NATO and EU membership, yet hold them at arm’s length until they join. We hide behind the fact they are not part of NATO, that they are a not an EU member, for our inaction when they invaded, despite selling them the promise of promise European integration.

I feel massive guilt towards my wife and her family for where Ukraine now finds itself. It’s easy to say, “Well, you are not part of NATO, and not part of the EU,” for not militarily defending them, until you actually have to say that to people who are having their homes and country destroyed.

There’s a real possibility that both NATO and the EU, whilst being emboldened and resilient right now, face a real identity and confidence crisis should the worst happen to Ukraine. Why would third countries want to align themselves with us, with the intention of one day joining, if we just allow a dictator to sabotage and then invade them whilst on their journey?

Make no mistake… both NATO and the EU are at war already: they trained Ukrainians long before this invasion, they are now not only crippling Russia’s economy but also sending arms… once Kyiv gets attacked, it will become ugly and they will have to intervene directly imho.
 
The US and the West should never have enticed Ukraine about joining NATO.
It was directly threatening to Russia.

Non military benefits should not have been conditional on Ukraine joining NATO.
No one can justify Putin invading Ukraine.
But lets not pretend the West did not have a huge role in what is happening now.
 
Would the radiation from this really travel across Europe? I understand the importance of not blowing up a nuclear power plant, but how does it affect the rest of Europe?
They won’t blow it up. First of Russian army is there as well and second they don’t want to exterminate the area but capture it.
Also these plants are well fortified from radiation outage.
 
The problem for NATO with a tactical nuke used inside Ukraine, if that were to happen, is that Ukraine is not part of NATO. Moreover, Putin would probably tell lies - either denying the fact, or claiming that NATO has smuggled in the nuke and detonated it in order to blacken Russia's name.

It's hard to know, but my guess is that NATO would not respond militarily by sending forces into Ukraine - because WWWIII would likely be the result. I hope this guess is correct.

An attack on a NATO member is a whole different kettle of fish.

I'm not too sure, any country in the world deploying a nuke - tactical or not - would illicit an immediate escalatory response from an opposing force. Modern tactical nukes are actually far more powerful than the bombs dropped on Japan in WW2. There isn't anything tactical about them other than the fact they aren't ridiculous hydrogen bombs.

If Russia were to nuke Ukraine the fallout will still have an affect on the rest of Europe, which would lead to deaths of civilians in NATO countries. Also, geopolitically, there's absolutely no way that the US would let Russia deploy a nuclear weapon with impunity.

Nuclear warfare is a terrifying prospect. I cannot believe that there aren't any dissenting views within the Kremlin power structure, at least personally. I struggle to believe that smart Kremlinites fully believe their own bullshit that they're under threat and therefore need to preemptively nuke anyone (including Putin).
 
Yeah, from 1945. But that part - "humanity will survive" a nuclear war. Not true.

This website (NY Times, 2022) says 100 nukes in China would destroy 34 million people. There are currently 15,000 nukes in the world according to the article.
This Wikipedia page says just 50 Hiroshima-sized bombs would cool temperatures in one hemisphere by several degrees, decimating crops.

What would 10,000 do? Feck. It would kill us all.
Your Wiki link seems to be broken? Anyway the numbers there doesn't make sense, as we have seen massive explosions in the past without any significant effect.

And the first link is completely useless as it gives no Information about the bomb sizes used for the study.
 
The US and the West should never have enticed Ukraine about joining NATO.
It was directly threatening to Russia.

Non military benefits should not have been conditional on Ukraine joining NATO.
No one can justify Putin invading Ukraine.
But lets not pretend the West did not have a huge role in what is happening now.

wow this is a stance I haven't read in this thread yet
thanks for the great input
 
Yeah, from 1945. But that part - "humanity will survive" a nuclear war. Not true.

This website (NY Times, 2022) says 100 nukes in China would destroy 34 million people. There are currently 15,000 nukes in the world according to the article.
This Wikipedia page says just 50 Hiroshima-sized bombs would cool temperatures in one hemisphere by several degrees, decimating crops.

What would 10,000 do? Feck. It would kill us all.
This is all very uncertain, but also consider that the US has agreed to having just ~1,400 deployed. The main targets of a US attack on Russia would be Russia's own nuclear weapon facilities to try to eliminate as much of their stockpile and launchers as possible before they can be used. Presumably Russia would also heavily target the US's stockpile. So I don't really see the scenario where 10,000 nukes are actually detonated because the initial salvos would take out much of the stockpile and launchers that would be used for 2nd strikes.

Anyway, count on me for more views on how nuclear war won't be that bad. :p
 
They won’t blow it up. First of Russian army is there as well and second they don’t want to exterminate the area but capture it.
Also these plants are well fortified from radiation outage.

Which furthers my thoughts, why would it be catastrophic for Europe?
 
Nuclear warfare is a terrifying prospect. I cannot believe that there aren't any dissenting views within the Kremlin power structure, at least personally. I struggle to believe that smart Kremlinites fully believe their own bullshit that they're under threat and therefore need to preemptively nuke anyone (including Putin).
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/b...r-war-strategy-escalationto-de-escalate-180680
This should give you some insight in the reasoning behind that.
 
The US and the West should never have enticed Ukraine about joining NATO.
It was directly threatening to Russia.

Non military benefits should not have been conditional on Ukraine joining NATO.
No one can justify Putin invading Ukraine.
But lets not pretend the West did not have a huge role in what is happening now.
Stop it dude. Huge role? Huge? Yeah.

In your view no one has agency, not Ukraine, not even Russia, just "the West".