Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Mickeza said:
I saw it in this thread two weeks ago - France were refuting U.K./US intelligence that Russia were about to invade. It doesn’t change the overall point - Putin can not invade and not appear weak by easily spinning it was all western propaganda.
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If this is the camouflage he needs to climb down then let him use it, its better than the alternative. At some point later though, when the troops start standing down, everyone is going to see that there are now more NATO troops in eastern Europe and the Ukrainian army is stronger and has more ammunition and anti tank and anti air missiles.

Propaganda aside Putin's build up will have had the exact opposite effect of his original aims.
 
Foxbatt said:
Why do some people think that Putin is going to let Russia be defeated in a conventional war? What is the point of nuclear weapons if you don't use it?
Sure Russia will be devastated but so would most of Europe including the destruction of UK and a lot of USA.
It would be the same for USA too. They won't let them be defeated in a conventional war.
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A few nukes blowing off is enough to put a big hole on the ozone layer and it's doomsday with current global warming.

The effect could be catastrophical even if it's only a few nuke
 
Foxbatt said:
Why do some people think that Putin is going to let Russia be defeated in a conventional war? What is the point of nuclear weapons if you don't use it?
Sure Russia will be devastated but so would most of Europe including the destruction of UK and a lot of USA.
It would be the same for USA too. They won't let them be defeated in a conventional war.
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What are you asking, why Putin doesn't wish the world to end the way we know it?
 
Foxbatt said:
Why do some people think that Putin is going to let Russia be defeated in a conventional war? What is the point of nuclear weapons if you don't use it?
Sure Russia will be devastated but so would most of Europe including the destruction of UK and a lot of USA.
It would be the same for USA too. They won't let them be defeated in a conventional war.
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Afghanistan?

Not winning in Ukraine would be the political end of Putin but by the time that not win is certain, he won't have the support he has now and no one is pressing the nuke buttons for him to save his hide at the expense of the mass destruction of everyone in the whole world.

Probably.
 
Hansi Fick said:
As in, "the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun"? Thankfully, Germany doesn't follow NRA slogans as foreign policy in this case, as much as our thriving weapons manufacturing industry would like it too.
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No, it’s a meant to act a deterrent but I don’t expect much understanding from someone who doesn’t know what it means to be occupied and bullied by Russia. In the Baltics/Poland we have gone through painful historic lessons on how to handle Russia, but thick western heads think they can solve the issue with Russia through diplomacy. At best it’s kicking the can down the road with Putin’s Russia. There’s a reason Baltics/Poland are the only countries that did not experience aggression from Russia in post-Soviet world and sure thing it isn’t a diplomacy at play here.
 
Sky1981 said:
A few nukes blowing off is enough to put a big hole on the ozone layer and it's doomsday with current global warming.

The effect could be catastrophical even if it's only a few nuke
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I'm pretty sure this isn't correct. Nukes wouldn't do anything to global warming unless it leads to nuclear winter, which would have the opposite but equally bad effect. We tend to only think of the two that were used in war, but actually thousands of nukes have been detonated, some in the past decade.
 
nimic said:
I'm pretty sure this isn't correct. Nukes wouldn't do anything to global warming unless it leads to nuclear winter, which would have the opposite but equally bad effect. We tend to only think of the two that were used in war, but actually thousands of nukes have been detonated, some in the past decade.
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Type of TestUnited StatesTotal
Atmospheric215528
Underground8151,528
Total1,0301 (Note: does not include atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.)2,056
this is how many in total.

When was the last time a nuclear bomb was detonated?

23 September 1992
 
nimic said:
I'm pretty sure this isn't correct. Nukes wouldn't do anything to global warming unless it leads to nuclear winter, which would have the opposite but equally bad effect. We tend to only think of the two that were used in war, but actually thousands of nukes have been detonated, some in the past decade.
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Right. You need several hundreds of the big ones (the ones that measure in megatons, not kilotons) to detonate within a short amount of time for things to have catastrophic effects. And even in that case, probably the biggest damage would come from the fires afterwards, rather than from the nukes itself.
 
Don't think we need to invoke global warming in order to reason why no nukes should be blown off anywhere under any fecking circumstances
 
pauldyson1uk said:
Type of TestUnited StatesTotal
Atmospheric215528
Underground8151,528
Total1,0301 (Note: does not include atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.)2,056
this is how many in total.

When was the last time a nuclear bomb was detonated?

23 September 1992
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That’s just the US. North Korea have carried out multiple tests in the last decade.
 
nimic said:
I'm pretty sure this isn't correct. Nukes wouldn't do anything to global warming unless it leads to nuclear winter, which would have the opposite but equally bad effect. We tend to only think of the two that were used in war, but actually thousands of nukes have been detonated, some in the past decade.
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I don't know if it's accurate but it doesn't sound great.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00794-y
 
Apparently that Ukranian ambassador has already gone back on his comments about withdrawing its objective of joining NATO.
 
pauldyson1uk said:
Its not going to come to nuclear war.
Nobody is that stupid, are they?
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This is what is wrong with the western narrative. The Russians will use it if they are getting hammered. There is no point in losing a war in your own land.
Putin does understand that and it's why this whole issue of NATO on their door step is crucial for their survival. He has been reiterating this over and over again. He is not going to win a conventional war against NATO nor the USA.
 
pauldyson1uk said:
Its not going to come to nuclear war.
Nobody is that stupid, are they?
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I can't see nuclear war being a planned thing, ever. Rather a series of overreactions and misinterpretations leading to a point of no return.
 
pauldyson1uk said:
Its not going to come to nuclear war.
Nobody is that stupid, are they?
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It won't. Nor will a conventional war against NATO. Putin is banking on it. He knows that the US public don't have the appetite for war right now. Without them on side, nothing is going to happen beyond sanctions.
 
Foxbatt said:
This is what is wrong with the western narrative. The Russians will use it if they are getting hammered. There is no point in losing a war in your own land.
Putin does understand that and it's why this whole issue of NATO on their door step is crucial for their survival. He has been reiterating this over and over again. He is not going to win a conventional war against NATO nor the USA.
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So you think that Putin thinks that Russia can't survive with NATO on the border, but can survive protracted thermonuclear war with NATO? Do you not see a slight issue with this logic? Do you think Putin is that eager to go down in history books as the final Russian ruler ever?

Are you trolling lol?
 
The Firestarter said:
I think it would have happened regardless of them saying it. The US/UK that is. The less said about the EU countries the better.
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France/Germany are really showing a complete lack of empathy towards Ukraine, appeasing Putin at every step. At least France is wise enough with it’s energy policies re nuclear, Germany being so dependent on Russia’s gas is a problem for the unity/security of the whole EU.
 
Foxbatt said:
This is what is wrong with the western narrative. The Russians will use it if they are getting hammered. There is no point in losing a war in your own land.
Putin does understand that and it's why this whole issue of NATO on their door step is crucial for their survival. He has been reiterating this over and over again. He is not going to win a conventional war against NATO nor the USA.
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First of all, there is no 'Western narrative'. Germany's view is different from Poland which is different from the UK.

Secondly nobody has threatened or is even talking about a war on Russia's own lands.

There's only been one Country in Europe in the last few years using troops in other European countries and it isn't Russia which is the victim in those situations.
 
africanspur said:
A situation where war is avoided is never shitty news.
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Unless you have nothing immediate to lose from a war and haven't actually understood what a "war" means which is the situation most people seem to have been commenting from.

As for Russia re-establishing its sphere of influence: It has been influencing its own border for centuries, since it was a feudal monarchy. The more absurd notion is that the US should not just be influencing but deciding European nation state policy, and so EU policy de facto, when it says that it will not allow Nordstream to happen. The EU has to either shrug off any and all of the US's attempts to play chess with its economic policy or it should consider disbanding.

I understand the criticisms of Putin because he is an autocrat. But why is there no criticism of the United States when it seeks to override German sovereignty? The US is a worldwide empire, with spheres of influence in the South China Sea, the Russian border, and everywhere else you care to mention. Some don't see the hypocrisy of supporting the US here as if they were the good guys. In a Canadian protest, one bystander with a Nazi flag (or was it a Confederate flag?) was enough to make everyone despise the entire convoy of truckers (two thousand?). Ukraine has actual Nazi regiments in its army. Where is the consistency in condemnation? People have an easy time playing war with other people's lives and other people's homes.
 
Foxbatt said:
This is what is wrong with the western narrative. The Russians will use it if they are getting hammered. There is no point in losing a war in your own land.
Putin does understand that and it's why this whole issue of NATO on their door step is crucial for their survival. He has been reiterating this over and over again. He is not going to win a conventional war against NATO nor the USA.
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So, where would Putin nuke first?
 
Foxbatt said:
This is what is wrong with the western narrative. The Russians will use it if they are getting hammered. There is no point in losing a war in your own land.
Putin does understand that and it's why this whole issue of NATO on their door step is crucial for their survival. He has been reiterating this over and over again. He is not going to win a conventional war against NATO nor the USA.
Click to expand...
Even if NATO would throw their entire support to Ukraine (which they won't), no one would try to invade Russia. So Russia won't lose the war in their own land.
 
Foxbatt said:
Why do some people think that Putin is going to let Russia be defeated in a conventional war? What is the point of nuclear weapons if you don't use it?
Sure Russia will be devastated but so would most of Europe including the destruction of UK and a lot of USA.
It would be the same for USA too. They won't let them be defeated in a conventional war.
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Russia can well be defeated in a conventional war - which would be short lived. Then there would have to decisions made as to whether back down or turn each other into parking lots.
 
I like this guys summation of Russian military, the Russian thought process and how they would likely respond to a hot war. If anyone has any similar videos or more knowledgable people of whom it would be good to listen to, then please post - I’d love to get myself educated more on this.

 
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