Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

ChaddyP said:
There is no way Putin keeps up this massive expensive front at the border for much longer without doing something.

The morale of the troops and the cost of keeping them there indefinitely will sure cause him to do something by month end no ?
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Don't forget that he is profiting off of all of this. The price of oil has skyrocketed since this entire standoff began and perceptions of a Russian invasion mean a higher oil price, which in turn means a lot more money going to Russia since their budget is partially pegged to the oil price. Its gone from $66 to $95 in 10 weeks and would be expected to go into the 120s if an actual war breaks out. That would likely make up for much of the cost an invasion.
 
nickm said:
Im not sure it's as easy as that. It would be an enormous shock for Japan and the US alliance. It would be an enormous sign of US weakness and democratic weakness, and it'd hugely weaken US influence in SE Asia. It would be a hugely destabilizing event with unpredictable consequences. The US may well care about that given how sensitive it is about the rise of China and it's relative decline.
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That's the overriding theme of my post though. That while a Taiwan invasion or a Baltic NATO state invasion may not be that important to the USA or American public in terms of their actual geopolitical values as territories but the consequences of not acting (imo especially for an actual NATO member) would be far more important for them. It would pretty much mean the end of NATO. What's the point of it then?
 
Paxi said:
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Not sure about this guy, he's stating stuff so obvious that it doesn't need stated, and then drawing impossible conclusions.

For example:

It's beyond obvious Russia won't be disconnected from SWIFT. If they were, it would be effectively impossible to buy gas etc from them.

It's beyond obvious that Russia won't embargo gas and every other commodity. If it did, it would remove the reason why they can't be disconnected from SWIFT.

The only winner here is China, and he doesn't even mention that. It's no wonder Xi is egging Putin on.
 
owlo said:
How tolerant would the population be of failure, and how much trouble would he personally be in if it's a giant feckup? Is there an actual risk to him here personally, or does he still have an iron fist? (I heard his total grip had diminished somewhat since the early days)
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It's more or less impossible to predict as authoritarian regimes usually fail unexpectedly quickly. His ratings are certainly at an all-time low (around 30% although you can't fully trust the numbers) but he has significantly turned on the pressure on anything that even remotely resembles an opposition — be it a straight-forward killing (failed assassination of Navalny, murder of Nemtsov which probably wasn't sanctioned by him but was very much something that happened because of how he set up the system) or brutal prison sentences for terrorism etc. So he has police, FSB, military etc. that are with him until the end — and, like we've seen in Belarus', sometimes even if the entire country stands up against a dictator he can still hold onto his chair by using brute force.

But if anything can topple over Putin's regime though, a huge failure in the Ukrainian campaign would be one of my top choices.
 
owlo said:
Not sure about this guy, he's stating stuff so obvious that it doesn't need stated, and then drawing impossible conclusions.

For example:

It's beyond obvious Russia won't be disconnected from SWIFT. If they were, it would be effectively impossible to buy gas etc from them.

It's beyond obvious that Russia won't embargo gas and every other commodity. If it did, it would remove the reason why they can't be disconnected from SWIFT.

The only winner here is China, and he doesn't even mention that. It's no wonder Xi is egging Putin on.
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I always found him quite objective he certainly knows more than I do so I find him quite informative.

Here’s another guy that I like:

 
Moston Red said:
Sorry I’m not very clued up on Russian politics. Is Putins goal here to try and rebuild the Soviet Union again? By taking the Ukraine first he can move onto to other old soviet territories?
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Not literally. But he prefers to keep neighbour states under his influence — more comparable to the Warsaw Pact than to Soviet Union. It's unlikely that he aims to annex Ukraine, the potential invasion would most likely be used to establish a pro-Russian government & forcing Ukraine to somehow detach itself from NATO & the West in general. Although no one aside from Putin himself knows for sure.
 
VorZakone said:
So what if next week nothing happens...quite the anti-climax?
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This situation has been more or less the same for months now, with the prognosis changing every few days. So I don't think that anything will be significantly different if nothing happens next week or the week after it.
 
ChaddyP said:
There is no way Putin keeps up this massive expensive front at the border for much longer without doing something.

The morale of the troops and the cost of keeping them there indefinitely will sure cause him to do something by month end no ?
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It's not the same 100000 + troops that are staying there. There's a constant flow of men power going in and out of the region for different military exercise. And he has been keeping the more or less same amount of troops there for months now, why would it suddenly became impossible for him? Foreign politics always takes priority over country's economy in Putin's book.
 
Raoul said:
There's also the idea that Putin may have to invade for fear of looking weak and feckless in backing down from an invasion. If he were not to invade, he wouldn't be taken seriously if he threatened again at a later date.
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If he really does want to take Ukraine by force, I suppose not being taken seriously works in his favour. If the 4th or 5th time he does this Ukraine and its backers let their guard down...
 
Champ said:
Yeah,

I see the news and read the words from Biden and BJ(idiot) and just feel like they are both in it for their own political gain, like it's one big game to play.
If Russia don't invade, they can paint it as a diplomatic win and reinvigorate their respective tenures,
If in the off chance Russia do invade they can point to the work they have done to prevent this, and point to the assistance they have given as a sign they have done all they can.

Interesting times ahead, but I feel for the folks in Ukraine, can't be an easy time for them.
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Politicians and parties using war as a poll booster is nothing new to be fair.

The UK politicians especially are hitting every show to repeat the same tough message to sell it to a domestic audience. We're a small player trying to appear big by hanging out with the US.

You'd hope behind closed doors that discussions are a bit more nuanced than these media aimed soundbites from Biden. The idea of sanctions as a threat isn't exactly news to Russia so really all the west have done so far is confirm they won't fight alongside Ukraine.
 
I'm sure the Russians are well aware of what kind of new sanctions will be imposed on them.
 
harms said:
It's more or less impossible to predict as authoritarian regimes usually fail unexpectedly quickly. His ratings are certainly at an all-time low (around 30% although you can't fully trust the numbers) but he has significantly turned on the pressure on anything that even remotely resembles an opposition — be it a straight-forward killing (failed assassination of Navalny, murder of Nemtsov which probably wasn't sanctioned by him but was very much something that happened because of how he set up the system) or brutal prison sentences for terrorism etc. So he has police, FSB, military etc. that are with him until the end — and, like we've seen in Belarus', sometimes even if the entire country stands up against a dictator he can still hold onto his chair by using brute force.

But if anything can topple over Putin's regime though, a huge failure in the Ukrainian campaign would be one of my top choices.
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It's interesting, because I can't think of a mechanism that would actually remove him, despite the fact everybody hates him. All the important organs *seem* loyal to him; it would take some large act of betrayal to undo him. He's certainly not nearly as repressive as Xi to the general population, and opinions are far more freely expressed there, but his redlines seem somewhat respected and those who cross it are brutalised.
 
For what it's worth, it's been interesting following experts & journalists on Twitter. I guess that's where Twitter comes in handy.
 
Raoul said:
There's also the idea that Putin may have to invade for fear of looking weak and feckless in backing down from an invasion. If he were not to invade, he wouldn't be taken seriously if he threatened again at a later date.
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He’s constantly denied it though with France and Germany backing up those claims that the intelligence doesn’t indicate he’s set to invade. He can definitely spin not invading as the U.K. and US being intent on inflaming tensions and starting a war by spreading false information. He’s been given an out.
 
Mickeza said:
He’s constantly denied it though with France and Germany backing up those claims that the intelligence doesn’t indicate he’s set to invade. He can definitely spin not invading as the U.K. and US being intent on inflaming tensions and starting a war by spreading false information. He’s been given an out.
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This is exactly what he is going to do. Already everyone is in jitters about the potential invasion. As Harm has said he is rotating the troops. The Ukranians are telling that he cannot invade and it is going to be a huge loss economically and politically for Russia but the US and the UK do not believe them. He is going to keep this pressure up for a while.
 
Raoul said:
There's also the idea that Putin may have to invade for fear of looking weak and feckless in backing down from an invasion. If he were not to invade, he wouldn't be taken seriously if he threatened again at a later date.
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Good point. I hope it’s not just me but I’m really starting to worry about this. The missus said I might be overreacting but I said if this all kicks off like it could do, then my son, and thousands like him his age, will be the first called up. That, to me, is worrying.
 
Mickeza said:
He’s constantly denied it though with France and Germany backing up those claims that the intelligence doesn’t indicate he’s set to invade. He can definitely spin not invading as the U.K. and US being intent on inflaming tensions and starting a war by spreading false information. He’s been given an out.
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Where have France or Germany said anything of the sort?

Foxbatt said:
This is exactly what he is going to do. Already everyone is in jitters about the potential invasion. As Harm has said he is rotating the troops. The Ukranians are telling that he cannot invade and it is going to be a huge loss economically and politically for Russia but the US and the UK do not believe them. He is going to keep this pressure up for a while.
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You're mischaractarizing what @harms said. None of the rotation indicates he's not planning an incursion. Russian BTG's move by train all the time around the country. It's not like the UK where they sit in their barracks 24/7.
 
owlo said:
Where have France or Germany said anything of the sort?
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Like this — Macron's words on public usually tend to reassure the idea of deescalating the conflict (or, at least, not to force the issue like US does).

"We see no indication in what President Putin says that he is going to go on the offensive," the official told reporters after Macron and Putin spoke on the phone for nearly 90 minutes.

"We are nevertheless extremely vigilant and alert to the Russian (military) posture in order to avoid the worst."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...vasion-french-presidency-official-2022-02-12/
 
harms said:
Like this — Macron's words on public usually tend to reassure the idea of deescalating the conflict (or, at least, not to force the issue like US does).

"We see no indication in what President Putin says that he is going to go on the offensive," the official told reporters after Macron and Putin spoke on the phone for nearly 90 minutes.

"We are nevertheless extremely vigilant and alert to the Russian (military) posture in order to avoid the worst."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...vasion-french-presidency-official-2022-02-12/
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That's not a claim that "the intelligence doesn’t indicate he’s set to invade" though, far from it.

It's de-escalating by saying that Putin hasn't indicated he's going on the offensive.

The last line there indicates that he IS aware of intelligence indicating they are set to invade as it says they are alert to the "Russian military posture."

You might question the scale of any incursion, but the intelligence is in black and white.
 
Mickeza said:
I saw it in this thread two weeks ago - France were refuting U.K./US intelligence that Russia were about to invade. It doesn’t change the overall point - Putin can not invade and not appear weak by easily spinning it was all western propaganda.
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A lot of double negatives there but I'd concur. He doesn't appear weak if he doesn't invade.
 
owlo said:
That's not a claim that "the intelligence doesn’t indicate he’s set to invade" though, far from it.

It's de-escalating by saying that Putin hasn't indicated he's going on the offensive.

The last line there indicates that he IS aware of intelligence indicating they are set to invade as it says they are alert to the "Russian military posture."

You might question the scale of any incursion, but the intelligence is in black and white.
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Unless you've seen said evidence how are you claiming its black and white? The fact that there's troops on the border?

I was reading articles just the other day how Germany were bemused at the US reports during the last Ukraine crisis where repeatedly they were making false claims in public. That's the US tactic though, push a hawkish position to try and force NATO allies into the action they want.
 
owlo said:
That's not a claim that "the intelligence doesn’t indicate he’s set to invade" though, far from it.

It's de-escalating by saying that Putin hasn't indicated he's going on the offensive.

The last line there indicates that he IS aware of intelligence indicating they are set to invade as it says they are alert to the "Russian military posture."

You might question the scale of any incursion, but the intelligence is in black and white.
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It was reported a few weeks ago. Basically France and Germany think that the UK and the US are being alarmist and haven't shared the reason why. They think that based on the intel at their disposal there hasn't been a difference in the way Russia has operated during the last 12 months(this situation really started around April 2021).
 
Smores said:
Unless you've seen said evidence how are you claiming its black and white? The fact that there's troops on the border?

I was reading articles just the other day how Germany were bemused at the US reports during the last Ukraine crisis where repeatedly they were making false claims in public. That's the US tactic though, push a hawkish position to try and force NATO allies into the action they want.
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I mean, it's all over tik tok? Blood supplies, field hospitals, radiation teams, extra BTG's from regions not usually deployed from, rail capacity, recalling amphibs to Crimea, military police? What more evidence do we need to see? If it smells and looks like shit, it's generally not a bouquet of roses.

Germany, France, and the EU have all asked their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately. Not only that but Germany are evacuating embassy staff. That's generally not done unless there's some pretty solid evidence.

JPRouve said:
It was reported a few weeks ago. Basically France and Germany think that the UK and the US are being alarmist and haven't shared the reason why. They think that based on the intel at their disposal there hasn't been a difference in the way Russia has operated during the last 12 months(this situation really started around April 2021).
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I mean, they are being alarmist. But they are doing so to a credible threat, one that Putin wants them to be alarmed by. The bold is simply false though. You can look at sattelite images from April last year and now and there's a vast difference.
 
owlo said:
I mean, they are being alarmist. But they are doing so to a credible threat, one that Putin wants them to be alarmed by. The bold is simply false though. You can look at sattelite images from April last year and now and there's a vast difference.
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What is the current estimation? Wasn't it 100k?
 
JPRouve said:
What is the current estimation? Wasn't it 100k?
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No idea on numbers. Not particularly important anyway as BTG's generally move quite quickly by rail. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60158694 says 130,000.

More important is evidence like this https://www.tiktok.com/@ivashka41/ to see what heavy units are going there, as well as seeing where the units are coming from, and which special infrastructure is being deployed. It's like bits to a puzzle; they have pretty much every one needed now for an incursion.

I've not been following it closely but iirc in 2020 troops were the same zones; now they've pretty much drained the far east theaters, so you'd imagine they have BTG's by rail ready to go from central districts.
 
You didn't provide any evidence with that TikTok but here you have reports from April 19 2021. The estimation from the US was around 150k at the border.

So you provided an article from yesterday that says 130k, I provided an article from Reuters that says 150k in April. You don't see the problem?
 
JPRouve said:
You didn't provide any evidence with that TikTok but here you have reports from April 19 2021. The estimation from the US was around 150k at the border.

So you provided an article from yesterday that says 130k, I provided an article from Reuters that says 150k in April. You don't see the problem?
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How is there no evidence in that tiktok? You see military police, special forces, and rail engineering emblems in those videos, as well as an obvious hardware build up.

The link you provided did not say 150k. It refuted 150k. Or did you simply not expect me to read it? The unnamed US source simply said it was in the tens of thousands and refuted the >150k figure.

OFFICIAL Russian military build-up near Ukraine numbers more than 100,000 troops, EU says
Reuters

BRUSSELS, April 19 (Reuters) - More than 100,000 Russian troops have massed on Ukraine's border and in annexed Crimea, the office of the EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell said after EU foreign ministers were briefed by Ukraine's foreign minister.

In a press conference on Monday, Borrell had originally spoken of more than 150,000 troops, and declined to give a source for the figure.

His office later corrected the number to more than 100,000 troops without giving a reason for the change.


Borrell said no new economic sanctions or expulsions of Russian diplomats were planned for the time being, despite saying that the military build-up on Ukraine's borders was the largest ever.

In Washington, the Pentagon said the Russian military build-up was larger than that in 2014 and it was not clear that it was for training purposes.

A U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the Russian build-up numbered in the tens of thousands but was not aware of intelligence that pointed to more than 150,000 Russian troops.
 
owlo said:
Where have France or Germany said anything of the sort?



You're mischaractarizing what @harms said. None of the rotation indicates he's not planning an incursion. Russian BTG's move by train all the time around the country. It's not like the UK where they sit in their barracks 24/7.
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Why should he invade and lose everything? This is the best situation for him. The British and the Americans tell everyone that he is going to invade. He has the troops there to invade and the plans to invade which he may well have leaked. The pressure is on Ukraine. Everyone is leaving. The economy is getting worse there. Gas prices have gone up. Russia is not selling any gas on the spot market. This is the perfect scenario for him.
 
owlo said:
How is there no evidence in that tiktok? You see military police, special forces, and rail engineering emblems in those videos, as well as an obvious hardware build up.

The link you provided did not say 150k. It refuted 150k. Or did you simply not expect me to read it? The unnamed US source simply said it was in the tens of thousands and refuted the >150k figure.

OFFICIAL Russian military build-up near Ukraine numbers more than 100,000 troops, EU says
Reuters

BRUSSELS, April 19 (Reuters) - More than 100,000 Russian troops have massed on Ukraine's border and in annexed Crimea, the office of the EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell said after EU foreign ministers were briefed by Ukraine's foreign minister.

In a press conference on Monday, Borrell had originally spoken of more than 150,000 troops, and declined to give a source for the figure.

His office later corrected the number to more than 100,000 troops without giving a reason for the change.


Borrell said no new economic sanctions or expulsions of Russian diplomats were planned for the time being, despite saying that the military build-up on Ukraine's borders was the largest ever.

In Washington, the Pentagon said the Russian military build-up was larger than that in 2014 and it was not clear that it was for training purposes.

A U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the Russian build-up numbered in the tens of thousands but was not aware of intelligence that pointed to more than 150,000 Russian troops.
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The link I provided tells you that Borrell a top EU diplomat mentioned that figure, the fact that the US source refuted it just further my point about the fact that this situation started in April. The same sides are claiming different things, they did it in April, did it in November and do it again in late January/early February.
If you look around you will find that US sources estimated in September that 80k remained after Russia withdrew thousands of troops on May 1st and these troops left their vehicles at the border, it was mentioned by Russia. How much withdrew and cameback as planned?

The point is twofold, first if the EU estimation is correct then you can understand why France and Germany don't understand the recent alarmism and the second point is that if they are not correct and overestimated the numbers earlier than you have to wonder how and why?
 
JPRouve said:
The link I provided tells you that Borrell a top EU diplomat mentioned that figure, the fact that the US source refuted it just further my point about the fact that this situation started in April. The same sides are claiming different things, they did it in April, did it in November and do it again in late January/early February.
If you look around you will find that US sources estimated in September that 80k remained after Russia withdrew thousands of troops on May 1st and these troops left their vehicles at the border, it was mentioned by Russia. How much withdrew and cameback as planned?

The point is twofold, first if the EU estimation is correct then you can understand why France and Germany don't understand the recent alarmism and the second point is that if they are not correct and overestimated the numbers earlier than you have to wonder how and why?
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I think you misunderstood the article. The Eu estimation earlier was 100k.

Anyway, if they were alarmed in April when they estimated 100k, and now theres 130k. But as I explained, that’s only part of the picture. The rest of the puzzle (other than air power) is now completed.

They are evacuating their embassies and moving troops. They are alarmed. They are simply using different diplomatic language.
 
owlo said:
I think you misunderstood the article. The Eu estimation earlier was 100k.

Anyway, if they were alarmed in April when they estimated 100k, and now theres 130k. But as I explained, that’s only part of the picture. The rest of the puzzle (other than air power) is now completed.

They are evacuating their embassies and moving troops. They are alarmed. They are simply using different diplomatic language.
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Misunderstood the article?

It's you that I don't understand not the article. If the estimation in April was more than 100k, it makes perfect sense that they are not as alarmed today than for example the US/UK, if the latter estimated at the time that those fingers were smaller. It may give us some perspective about why each sides have their current positions.

I personally don't know what is what I simply have more questions than answer. Also as mentioned earlier in the thread in the case of France the troops moved to Romania were supposed to go to Romania as part of a treaty, France has troops stationed there. And before a french politician tries to bamboozle people they are also supposed to send more troops in 2022 for the SARMIS 22.
 
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