Yeah I think its too late for the Donbas option given the amount of death and destruction has has caused throughout the rest of Ukraine this week. He will still have to be held to account for all of that, which will likely happen through leaving sanctions in place until he is forced out of power.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Yeah I think its too late for the Donbas option given the amount of death and destruction has has caused throughout the rest of Ukraine this week. He will still have to be held to account for all of that, which will likely happen through leaving sanctions in place until he is forced out of power.
The defiance shown by the Ukrainians is remarkable. Even using smileys.
Source: Ukrainian National Guard.
Source: Ukrainian National Guard.
I think this is the occams Razor of it all.
He might have thought that with a swift campaign he wouldn't have had to contend with them immediately, knowing that they were likely to be rolled out incrementally/take time to piece together and get agreement on. The former is taking longer than thought, the latter I presume is coming far quicker.
Just stuck RT news on 
. Chalk and cheese.
. Chalk and cheese.What's he suggesting exactly? Because Roman's at least literally has a missile defence system
I think the extend of sanctions is just multiples of what the West has done previously.
He probably assumed something much worse than the Crimea sanctions but in the same sort of category. This is just completely different level.
The restrictions on the Russian central bank are basically crippling their ability to interfere with the slide in the rouble, just when it's expected to be under immense pressure.
It's literally taking away their gun when fighting a bear and at best, leaving them with a pistol or more likely a knife.
What's he suggesting exactly? Because Roman's at least literally has a missile defence system
Won't be Romans for long.
I have no clue to be honest but I'd be tempted to say no. Why stack up so much wealth in case you have a hard time without being able to use it when you actually have a hard time?
Again, I respectfully disagree. It's worse than comparable, the US went into Iraq knowing the consequences would be more than minimal, but Putin did this knowing full well of the consequences. The US and the UK, as well as other allies had preemptively sent in armaments and threatened reprisals. These were not just idle threats of reprisals, but threats of reprisals from the US, EU, and our allies in ANZAC, Japan, S. Korea, etc. and that's without really exercising and twisting their muscles over other countries. This is not a realpolitik rational move, or a game of pre-planned 3D chess. This is an emotional and irrational decision defying the will of the biggest economic and military powers in the world. Furthermore, you cannot underestimate some creativity and unexpected responses of purely the economic and responses alone. Putin lined up his advisors and made them pay fealty. He basically b*tch-slapped the head of the FSB live on Russian TV. It's not a rational movement, let's accept it for what it is.
He'll just give it to trustees with no connection to him and it's safe.
If Russia had quickly taken Kyiv and installed a puppet government, do we think these particular sanctions would still have gone ahead? Or would the other nations' calculations and approach have changed once Ukraine was actually occupied?
If they thought they would have Ukraine under control before these sanctions were agreed and could leverage to avoid them at that point then that might make more sense to me.
If they thought they would have Ukraine under control before these sanctions were agreed and could leverage to avoid them at that point then that might make more sense to me.
The sanctions were always inevitable since they were designed to project power against Putin's actions and avoid an actual war with him.
And people still think he won’t use nukes. That man will absolutely take everyone down with him.
Very interesting thread. Short summary:
- Noticeable problems within Russian operations such as logistics and no air supremacy as of this moment.
- Kyiv likely to get uglier as urban warfare increases. Zelenskiy will face an extremely tough choice of leaving or staying.
- Ukrainians putting on a master class in communication through transparency and sharing heroic stories.
Surely no matter how powerful he is, he would be couped if he tries to initiate a nuclear holocaust?
They must have a system in place where it takes more than him just pressing a big red button, surely? I can't imagine his Admirals or Generals thinking it would be a good idea.
I read a joke today.
What's the difference between one dollar and one ruble? One dollar.
We might see something close to this on Monday.
What's the difference between one dollar and one ruble? One dollar.
We might see something close to this on Monday.
It's pretty hard to get someone in unnoticed in places like Russia and North Korea. Doubly to get them in with the ability to do something about the leader of the country.
Good.
I think it's more likely they turn off the gas. They can afford to do it relative to oil and it seems like the obvious response to major sanctions. He'll hit back in some manner he really doesn't have a choice.
If Russia decapitated Ukrainian government and installed a new regime or enacted a regime change in the first 24-48 hours then I have absolutely no doubt that it would have given US/NATO something to think about.
Ukraine is one of the biggest countries in Europe with proud people and are propped up by the West against the Russians. Only fools would discount that. You’d think the Russians would learn about stingers from the Afghan war but apparently not.
Past few days have shown us that Russian military isn’t as good as it thinks it is.
I would be emboldened right now if I was the US.
Russians were expecting sanctions but they relied on hearsay. I’m not sure what state the Russian IC is in right now but it doesn’t look good.
Personally, I would have bombed every strategic place into oblivion. Absolutely demoralised the Ukrainian military and then had tried to establish air bridges if there were positive signs. I think it was absolutely amazing (in a bad way) that Russians seemed to have it all planned out without taking into consideration that ‘war happens’.
Anyway, I digress, if it we’re me, after levelling Kiev I’d have sent KSO to capture or kill anyone that might oppose the Russian regime.
That’s how I’d wage war. Again, I’m just being objective - it doesn’t mean that I actually like war or anything like that.
That gas is already getting turned off. Russia has been removed from global economy, it’s going to bite back.
I’m talking about if Turkey sinks a sub or a ship or something.
That is how it is in the US but who knows what this maniac has devised? There was this Perimetr system from Soviet times that I am not sure is still functional, but basically it was/is a "dead hand" system that launches automatically when enabled and certain conditions were met. Kind of like the plot of Dr. Strangelove.
Putin may not have taken certain factors into account, but there is a high military command, the one that really organizes all this, with experience and surely great military training.
I would like to know in the future what was the opinion of all those generals about the invasion. About the logistics problems, the inexperience of the soldiers, the Ukrainian preparation for eight years, etc.
I would like to know in the future what was the opinion of all those generals about the invasion. About the logistics problems, the inexperience of the soldiers, the Ukrainian preparation for eight years, etc.
It would escalate to a point where nuclear weapons are on the table. I mean if Turkey sank a Russian sub, Russia would retaliate by dropping a bomb on barracks. And it’s tit for tat until there are difficult questions posed. I mean of course there could be a coup but who knows.
I bet we've got one eye on the missile silos and once they start activating NATO planes will be straight in there from Poland. Will it be enough? God knows
IDK, but regardless I'd be nervous of whoever has to approve it. He's surrounded by yes men and generals, often those generals are warhawks spoiling for a fight.
Like that time in 2008 that General Nogovitsyn threatened a nuclear attack on Poland.
This is a good thread but tweet 6 particularly stands out. Russians completely this part.
Among all this madness I find it interesting that Russia requested Kazakhstan to send troops and the Kazakhs refused. Probably figured their troops were going to be cannon fodder to spare Russian lives, I reckon?
It’s not going to be NATO intervention = Nuke. It would escalate into something completely insane and then who knows what will happen? We should never ever get to to that stage though.
...I didn't say that though?
I’m presuming that would be tactical nukes for short range distances - Amsterdam - Berlin.
Anything that’s stored away will be in silos.
Anything that’s stored away will be in silos.
@Raoul Please tell me that was a bad source?
No I know you didn’t. I wasn’t arguing against you. I’m just saying that people may be in extremely stressful situations and there is no telling what will happen.
Source was ok, they simply sensationalized one line out of a Macron tweet, which made it sound misleading.